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Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

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Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 17:45:45

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans."

The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics rather than any of its own to argue that there is little threat to long-term oil supplies.

The IEA said tonight that peak oil critics had often wrongly questioned the accuracy of its figures. A spokesman said it was unable to comment ahead of the 2009 report being released tomorrow.

John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.

He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.

"This all gives an importance to the Copenhagen [climate change] talks and an urgent need for the UK to move faster towards a more sustainable [lower carbon] economy if it is to avoid severe economic dislocation," he added.

The IEA was established in 1974 after the oil crisis in an attempt to try to safeguard energy supplies to the west. The World Energy Outlook is produced annually under the control of the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, who has defended the projections from earlier outside attack. Peak oil critics have often questioned the IEA figures.

But now IEA sources who have contacted the Guardian say that Birol has increasingly been facing questions about the figures inside the organisation.

Matt Simmons, a respected oil industry expert, has long questioned the decline rates and oil statistics provided by Saudi Arabia on its own fields. He has raised questions about whether peak oil is much closer than many have accepted.

A report by the UK Energy Research Council (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 18:08:28

I don't know, pstarr. But I'm guessing those used to regular suppositories will find the experience a little less painful.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby ian807 » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 18:10:53

And may I be the first to say. "@*)&)&#$@^^(^%!"

Couldn't this whole thing waited another 40 years or so until I kicked? Did it *have* to start now? (^((%&!!!

OK, rant over.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby MD » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 18:20:51

I don't doubt a considered reluctance to present pessimistic forecasts. After all, panic is no one's friend.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Maddog78 » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 18:26:03

I'm curious to see if this will have any impact on the traders.
Too bad it wasn't another source than the Guardian.
They got hammered back pretty good the next day after that "world switching away from oil in dollars" story a month ago.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 18:26:17

Get ready for another round of denialist spin by Lynch and the boys.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby MD » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 18:31:16

mos6507 wrote:Get ready for another round of denialist spin by Lynch and the boys.


No doubt. That is what they are paid for after all. it's just crowd control.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:16:16

Prediction: this "whistleblower" will have a book deal within 6 months. Hey I don't blame him, if I could make something up and make a bunch of money i'd do it too.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


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"US leaned in IEA to inflate figures" Guardian

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:20:43

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.



"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... rgy-agency
Last edited by Ferretlover on Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:57:28, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Already posted--merged with that thread.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:25:28

TheAntiDoomer wrote:Prediction: this "whistleblower" will have a book deal within 6 months. Hey I don't blame him, if I could make something up and make a bunch of money i'd do it too.


You're on. How much?

You're prepared to dismiss a senior official of the IEA like that? Isn't there a name for that? Oh yeah, Dogma.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:27:04

mos6507 wrote:Get ready for another round of denialist spin by Lynch and the boys.


wow mos, you're not one to normally buy right into a conspiracy theory.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

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Re: "US leaned in IEA to inflate figures" Guardian

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:29:34

HUGE.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Arthur75 » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:30:53

Wow, scary ...
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:32:38

HUGE.

This is just a bit more evidence piling up in the "we were right all along" pile over in our corner.

This is huge. For somebody to break ranks is huge. There must be tremendous pressure at the EIA to paint a rosy picture.

When world-wide panic buying of oil is the concern, we're talking shot-in-the-head kind of pressure. As in, toe the line or risk being taken out.

2010 is going to be one hell of a year.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby eXpat » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 19:47:05

It makes sense, the sytem has to be keep running no matter the cost. I guess we will find out soon enough.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 20:09:25

TheAntiDoomer wrote:
mos6507 wrote:Get ready for another round of denialist spin by Lynch and the boys.


wow mos, you're not one to normally buy right into a conspiracy theory.


The first thing I do when I read these denialist things is research the person giving them to look for conflict of interest, and there almost always is. Call it what you like.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby cipi604 » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 20:09:53

Image
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 20:10:41

Brace yourself, guys. This is already running up the flagpole again. Let's see how far it gets before the whack-a-mole happens.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby eXpat » Mon 09 Nov 2009, 20:25:59

Nice graphs cipi604, now it comes the funny part!!! :P
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