Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

[davep]

My doom-o-meter has just gone up a few notches.

Help!

[IslandCrow]

Thanks DaveP for the link... feeling a little stressed out (health reasons in family member) it was good to have a simple summary.

My impression is that it does not look good. EG. see page 7 on natural gas:

Additional capacity of around 2 700 bcm, or 4 times current Russian capacity, is needed by 2030 - half to offset decline at existing fields & half to meet the increase in demand

My read is that this report looks like they are pushing for policies to curtail the rise of energy use (or at least giving good backing to governments to do something).

[davep]

I'm guessing the 450 scenario is there because of the change in the US President. It's the only way of starting mitigation without making their previous predictions look like the cornucopian wet dream they were.

This could be tied in with the Guardian leak (I mean whistleblowers) and the release of the field by field depletion analysis as a massive change of direction for the IEA.

[kpeavey]

Here's the Summary & Conclusions from the IEA WEO 2009 abridged press version:

The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its
long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies

-- Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system
> We are now on course for a 6°C temperature rise & rising energy costs
> Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require big emission reductions in all
regions
-- A 450 path towards ‘Green Growth’ would bring substantial benefits
> Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change
> Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills
> Much less air pollution & huge health benefits
-- Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future
-- The challenge is enormous – but it can and must be met
> Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical
> Each year of delay adds $500 bn to mitigation costs between today & 2030

The whistleblowers spoke of the US influence upon the IEA report, but did not say the influence has ended. This new report is the US governments plan of action. This is not an energy outlook report, its a green light for establishing legislation to assume control of energy resources and consumption under the guise of saving the earth's climate.

"Massive decarbonisation" is newspeak for "we out of oil, Baby."

To further support this plan, a major climate report containing the names of lots of highly accredited scientists should be forthcoming. To draw attention away from the IEA report, I'd expect such a climate report within the next few weeks. It will be similar in design to the IEA report *cough BS cough* in designating climate change mitigation as an urgent situation.

To cover the mitigation costs, taxes will be mandatory. The US is 25% of consumption. $500B x .25= $125B / 300M people =$416/person/year. All by itself this is an additional $8/week/person, but double that figure to account for deadbeats and people without a car, $16/week. A 16 gallon tank being filled once/week will dictate a $1/gallon fuel tax. Add another $1/gallon each year. I expect to see this begin within the next 6 months.

Since coal is relatively abundant and used for electricity, the decarbonization strategy will be highly focus on petroleum products. I expect to see tremendous new interest in the nuclear sector.

[Maddog78]

Here's the Summary & Conclusions from the IEA WEO 2009 abridged press version:

The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its
long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies

-- Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system
> We are now on course for a 6°C temperature rise & rising energy costs
> Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require big emission reductions in all
regions
-- A 450 path towards ‘Green Growth’ would bring substantial benefits
> Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change
> Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills
> Much less air pollution & huge health benefits
-- Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future-- The challenge is enormous – but it can and must be met
> Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical
> Each year of delay adds $500 bn to mitigation costs between today & 2030

By some strange coincidence, these happen to be PO mitigation methods as well.

[davep]

Here's the Summary & Conclusions from the IEA WEO 2009 abridged press version:

The financial crisis has halted the rise in global fossil-energy use, but its
long-term upward path will resume soon on current policies

-- Tackling climate change & enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system
> We are now on course for a 6°C temperature rise & rising energy costs
> Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require big emission reductions in all
regions
-- A 450 path towards ‘Green Growth’ would bring substantial benefits
> Avoiding the worst effects & costs of climate change
> Energy-security benefits, lower oil & gas imports & reduced energy bills
> Much less air pollution & huge health benefits
-- Natural gas can play a key role as a bridge to a cleaner energy future-- The challenge is enormous – but it can and must be met
> Improved energy efficiency & technology deployment are critical
> Each year of delay adds $500 bn to mitigation costs between today & 2030

By some strange coincidence, these happen to be PO mitigation methods as well.

And your point is?

Using natural gas may well be a decent peak oil mitigation technique as part of a whole range of measures. We're still going to need to power down though

[Maddog78]

My point is very simply, I work in the n.g. industry so it's good news some people think n.g. can help us ease the power down.

A nearly purely selfish point, I admit.

[gt1370a]

That explains why Fatih Birol was out saying oil DEMAND has peaked in OECD countries, due to the recession, climate change concerns, and alternative energy.

[davep]

My point is very simply, I work in the n.g. industry so it's good news some people think n.g. can help us ease the power down.

A nearly purely selfish point, I admit.

Kudos for your frankness

[Voice_du_More]

Wait until Americans realize that the solution most of the world has in mind is for American to consume 80% less oil after the dollar evaporates. Ergo, the prices for everyone else who wants to be like America drop like a stone and they all start rpsopering for a time while the smoke of our burning goes up like a furnace.

I'm not surprised if this is true and it makes the mythical $500 superspike seem like a crisis point we could see in the next year. I'm certain there will be a spike in the spring again and the second time people probably won't be blaming the oil companies.

My other concern is how much, if the US is trying to intimidate the IAE, as we recently also intimidated Britain over some inconvenient truths, are we willing to maybe quiet a few peak oil dissidents? It's a good thing for us that there are guys like Simmons out in the public eye still talking it because it makes it harder to silence the voices of us grassroots whackos.

I agree that if the markets ever honestly believed that we will never cross 85mbpd again markets around the world would plummet as commodities especially oil went through the roof. Imagine a one day 50% drop in the Dow as everyone tried to flood the oil market and oil just went up, up, up.

The canaries are desperately singing already. I mean Gold has now quietly top $1100. What's up with that? Well, countries around the world are tuning into gold and the euro and disfavoring the dollar. The dollar inflation is being driving more and more by lack of confidence from abroad not Fed policy.

So, it looks like the hard core doomers might get their Mad-Max scenario afterall. I wonder if we will get alot of aussie's trying to immigrate to live out their fantasies. We on the other hand won't need to see the movie, we'll be living it.

You see even a post like this that I am making that is just calling for someone somewhere to be honest and make some wise choices could fall under scrutiny because we can't have panic, we just can't. So keep lying until you have damned ten or twenty million more people.

"But if we are honest America will lose her place of supremacy in the world and..."

That's the hard thing about building your legacy by force of arms, by always carrying the biggest stick. If the stick ever breaks you don't have very much to fall back on.

I am praying that the round up and internment of peak oil dissidents never gets any legs. The fact is rather than being enemies we have been among the few who tried to consistently awaken our nation to it's real need.

Hopefully somebodies 'thoughts' will be with us as we face these difficult times.

[mos6507]

"Massive decarbonisation" is newspeak for "we out of oil, Baby."

There is more than enough rationale to do these things on the climate end alone, if you take anything close to what Lovelock has to say seriously.

Or do you really have faith in "the market" and human nature to gently solve these problems?

[davep]

"Massive decarbonisation" is newspeak for "we out of oil, Baby."

There is more than enough rationale to do these things on the climate end alone, if you take anything close to what Lovelock has to say seriously.

Or do you really have faith in "the market" and human nature to gently solve these problems?

There may well be the rationale, but since when has the IEA's remit included climate change? They're obliquely acknowledging the need to address peak oil in the only politically correct way they can, IMO.

[mos6507]

MSM doomer porn alert.

TIME MAGAZINE

Peak oil.

It's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack.

[davep]

MSM doomer porn alert.

TIME MAGAZINE

Peak oil.

It's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack.

There's nothing in there that hasn't already been discussed on this thread over the past 24 hours, but as you say, it's the MSM (as are the Guardian, Reuters et al).

[Jotapay]

I can't believe this. I've never seen Time cover a story this fast before, especially one that is so fringe as Peak Oil. This was no whistleblower. It was planned.

Peak Oil has been co-opted now by the MSM and TPTB to push their own agenda. Peak Oil is going to be used to push the carbon/CO2/environment treaty. Your thunder has just been stolen.

[mos6507]

There's nothing in there that hasn't already been discussed on this thread, but as you say, it's the MSM.

The doomer echo-chamber stuff you see on TOD, countercurrents, energybulletin, etc... only preach to the converted. When this stuff bubbles up into the MSM, it matters.

Of course, I thought Earth 2100, Incredible Journey of Crude, Home, etc... all mattered and how much impact did it have? But at the very least, it's more fodder for my "Look, man, I'm not really crazy" news clippings collection.

[davep]

I can't believe this. I've never seen Time cover a story this fast before, especially one that is so fringe as Peak Oil. This was no whistleblower. It was planned.

Agreed. They tied in the various elements quite well, rather than just pumping out a press release.

As I said earlier, this was a leak more than a whistleblower.

[davep]

There's nothing in there that hasn't already been discussed on this thread, but as you say, it's the MSM.

The doomer echo-chamber stuff you see on TOD, countercurrents, energybulletin, etc... only preach to the converted. When this stuff bubbles up into the MSM, it matters.

Of course, I thought Earth 2100, Incredible Journey of Crude, Home, etc... all mattered and how much impact did it have? But at the very least, it's more fodder for my "Look, man, I'm not really crazy" news clippings collection.

Arf! Fair enough, but I did amend my post to include the Guardian and Reuters (there's also the FT and no doubt many others who are now joining the dots).

[mos6507]

I can't believe this. I've never seen Time cover a story this fast before, especially one that is so fringe as Peak Oil. This was no whistleblower. It was planned.

The IEA report comes out at the same time each year. You're telling me Time wasn't otherwise going to write about it considering the Fatih Birol 2020 bombshell earlier this year?

Here is the author's profile. Care to email her and ask her pointedly if she's acting as a mouthpiece for TPTB?

I dare ya. I double-dare ya.

[rangerone314]

Recently bought Fallout 3 Game of the Year edition (I usually wait on most games when they get the bugs out & have more mods etc).

Looks more and more like good training for the future, LOL!

With leaks like that I am beginning to think I should try and push for food self-sufficiency in 4 years rather than 5.