Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

[frankthetank]

Don't know what to believe anymore. I just know that in the event of drastically reduced oil output, the US is screwed ... Europe at least has trains and bicycles...we've got diabetes and obesity... No one wants to walk

[Dr. Ofellati]

Don't know what to believe anymore. I just know that in the event of drastically reduced oil output, the US is screwed ... Europe at least has trains and bicycles...we've got diabetes and obesity... No one wants to walk

Look at the bright side - Europe is a forced mix of religiously, culturally, and historically disparate people who are always a few breaths away from all out war, and the U.S. is not.

Oh wait. That's not really a bright side.

Nevermind.

[hardtootell-2]

and then there is this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-bl ... 00-2009-11

oil futures at $100.

Ready or not!

[pstarr]

and then there is this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-bl ... 00-2009-11

oil futures at $100.

Ready or not!

The article hinted at "supply problems" but then added this:

Some say the rise reflects long-term oil supply worries, in spite of the impact of recession on global demand. Others say that with supply outpacing anaemic consumption, traders need the incentive of higher forward prices to store petroleum the world does not need.

Am we supposed to believe this nonsence? I am sorry, I must not have been trained adequately.

[Maddog78]

We'll see what this stirs up.

Cheney.

Cheney will kill the whistlerblowers (personally garroting them with his own cello strings). He will retrieve GW from his Paraguay hideaway and install him as Oil Commissar (that is CZAR for short) and declare it an Oil Holiday, ie a petroleum Jug Jerkoff with GW as the Swiller-in-Charge. We will promptly invade everybody in order to stabilize the markets. Can't have confusion in the markets. Must stabilize.

Credit where it's due. This made me LOL.

[pstarr]

We'll see what this stirs up.

Cheney.

Cheney will kill the whistlerblowers (personally garroting them with his own cello strings). He will retrieve GW from his Paraguay hideaway and install him as Oil Commissar (that is CZAR for short) and declare it an Oil Holiday, ie a petroleum Jug Jerkoff with GW as the Swiller-in-Charge. We will promptly invade everybody in order to stabilize the markets. Can't have confusion in the markets. Must stabilize.

Credit where it's due. This made me LOL.

Doomers are people to

[timmac]

Would this be a good time to buy some oil stock ??

I would love to double $10,000 fast,, strange than also I am having my rear axle rebuilt on my motorhome and new rear brakes at a tune of $3800..

[Mesuge]

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."

Interestingly enough, similar leaks (from IEA) have been circulating with increased periodicity since Q3/2008. There was critical article and comments in TOD by that student, who personaly questioned IEA senior staffers for his uni paper, the controversial info was deemed beyond hot for TOD, so it was later censored by its administrators, and this act of TOD's flip flopping was even banned to be discussed here at PO.com by one "mod" around this Sept. as well.

Btw. what is also interesting about this Guardian piece is how they try to attach it to the Copenhagen conference on GW. It seems some pursue the strategy to pre-sell the post PO frugal life on the backs of climate change.

So, in summary, alternative or mainstream media some people are just scared white and not able to face the unfolding reality. Or rather playing silly games again trying to get ahead of the rest of the pack, as goes the notion, you merely need to outrun the slowest guy next to you aka human nature at work..

[MD]

And the PO panic is off and running once again.

Really people, you need to relax and enjoy the show.

[dorlomin]

AFP

PARIS — The IEA forecast on Tuesday that the oil price, excluding inflation, would be 100 dollars a barrel in 2020 and 115 dollars in 2030, saying oil demand would rise by one percent per year.

Global demand would rise from 85 million barrels per day in 2008 to 105 mbd in 2030, assuming that forthcoming negotiations on global warming in Copenhagen did not result in immediate big changes in energy policies, the IEA said.

The average oil price this year would be about 60 dollars per barrel against a background of weak economic activity.

The price would then rise with economic recovery to 115 dollars a barrel in 20 years' time in constant dollar valuations, meaning after stripping out the effect of inflation, the International Energy Agency said.

ORLY?

[wisconsin_cur]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

[Arthur75]

http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-reports/key ... 56606.html

[davep]

The article on the guardian has been updated with an audio piece and an IEA graph.

[Jotapay]

This was the headline story on Marketplace on NPR this morning.

[davep]

They've released a pdf of the Field-by-Field Analysis of Oil Production from last year's WEO report as well http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2008/chapter10.pdf

[Dr. Ofellati]

This was the headline story on Marketplace on NPR this morning.

JP - what is "this", the whistleblower or the IEA report?

[dorlomin]

They've released a pdf of the Field-by-Field Analysis of Oil Production from last year's WEO report as well http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2008/chapter10.pdf

Ooooh something to read over the weekend.

[davep]

They've released a pdf of the Field-by-Field Analysis of Oil Production from last year's WEO report as well http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2008/chapter10.pdf

Ooooh something to read over the weekend.

I'd take a copy pretty quickly if I were you in case someone decides to pull it from the website.

[dorlomin]

Questions for Fatih Britol over at the FT.

http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/ ... questions/

[dorlomin]

Non opec to peak next year EIA.

Non-Opec oil production will peak next year, the International Energy Agency says in its World Energy Outlook.

The IEA also says that post-peak gas fields are declining at a rate of 7.5 per cent, but there appears to be enough recoverable gas reserves to satisfy world demand until at least 2030.

The IEA has been criticised for underplaying the risk of an imminent oil supply. A story in The Guardian today quotes two whistleblowers who claim the agency privately believes oil production will never reach 100m barrels per day, despite its forecasts that world oil demand will reach 105m b/d by 2030.

The WEO repeats the 105m b/d forecast this year, but breaks its outlook into two scenarios: a ‘reference scenario’, in which energy use continues along its current path, and a ‘450 scenario’, in which governments make a concerted effort to limit atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 450ppm.

Under the no-change reference scenario, the IEA sees global oil rising 1 per cent per year, reaching 105m b/d in 2030. This is 1m b/d less than the agency’s forecast last year. OECD demand, in this scenario, will also fall.

Under the 450 scenario, non-hydro renewables rise from 2.5 per cent of the power mix in 2007 to 8.6 per cent in 2030.

http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/ ... next-year/