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Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:22:08

davep wrote:Mos, what worries me about a top-down model is the inevitability of the Government pandering more to corporate interests than those of the populace. It's a hard habit to break.


But in the end one has to endorse something, damn it. Being critical of any and every approach to dealing with the problem only leads to paralysis, and the default train wreck.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby JPL » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:25:57

Jotapay wrote:
Don't get me started about your country. I can't believe it's slid into the nanny-state where everyone spies on each other and you can be ticketed for using banned words. I'm mostly of Welsh and Scottish stock, so it pains me to see that.
.


He heh well said you also forgot the lousy food and the weather...

Don't worry about the quote if it's not to hand.

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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:32:19

mos6507 wrote:
davep wrote:Mos, what worries me about a top-down model is the inevitability of the Government pandering more to corporate interests than those of the populace. It's a hard habit to break.


But in the end one has to endorse something, damn it. Being critical of any and every approach to dealing with the problem only leads to paralysis, and the default train wreck.


I agree entirely. I just feel we need to be on our guard against potential abuses. Whether we can actually do anything about them is another thing entirely.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:55:05

JPL wrote:Yea, I'd be interested to read that.


http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtex ... =h111-2454

Text of H.R. 2454: American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009


Section requiring three environmental inspectors/enforcers per town (population area):

SEC. 207. COMMUNITY BUILDING CODE ADMINISTRATION GRANTS.
(c)(2) ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENT- Each building code enforcement department receiving a grant under subsection (a) shall empanel a code administration and enforcement team consisting of at least 1 full-time building code enforcement officer, a city planner, and a health planner or similar officer.


The Feds will charge you for inspecting your home:

SEC. 201. GREATER ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDING CODES.
Section 304 of the Energy Conservation and Production Act (42 U.S.C. 6833) is amended to read as follows:
SEC. 304. GREATER ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDING CODES.

(f)(3) The Secretary may set and collect reasonable inspection
fees to cover the costs of inspections required for such
enforcement Revenue from fees collected shall be available to
the Secretary to carry out the requirements of this sect on upon
appropriation.



Federal fines every day you unlawfully occupy your own home:

‘‘BUILDING CODES.—
(g) ENFORCEMENT PROCEDURES.—(1) The Secretary shall assess a civil penalty for violations of this section, pursuant to subsection (d)(3), in accordance with the procedures described in section 333(d) of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (42 U.S.C. 6303). The United States district courts shall also have jurisdiction to restrain any violation of this section or rules adopted thereunder, in accordance with the procedures described in section 334 of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (42 U.S.C. 6304).
(2) Each day of unlawful occupancy shall be considered a separate violation.


You can learn a lot of these things by watching the recent documentary, Fall of the Republic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:57:28

Jotapay wrote:
JPL wrote:Yea, I'd be interested to read that.


http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtex ... =h111-2454

Text of H.R. 2454: American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009


Section requiring three environmental inspectors/enforcers per town (population area):

SEC. 207. COMMUNITY BUILDING CODE ADMINISTRATION GRANTS.
(c)(2) ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENT- Each building code enforcement department receiving a grant under subsection (a) shall empanel a code administration and enforcement team consisting of at least 1 full-time building code enforcement officer, a city planner, and a health planner or similar officer.


The Feds will charge you for inspecting your home:

SEC. 201. GREATER ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDING CODES.
Section 304 of the Energy Conservation and Production Act (42 U.S.C. 6833) is amended to read as follows:
SEC. 304. GREATER ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDING CODES.

(f)(3) The Secretary may set and collect reasonable inspection
fees to cover the costs of inspections required for such
enforcement Revenue from fees collected shall be available to
the Secretary to carry out the requirements of this sect on upon
appropriation.



Federal fines every day you unlawfully occupy your own home:

‘‘BUILDING CODES.—
(g) ENFORCEMENT PROCEDURES.—(1) The Secretary shall assess a civil penalty for violations of this section, pursuant to subsection (d)(3), in accordance with the procedures described in section 333(d) of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (42 U.S.C. 6303). The United States district courts shall also have jurisdiction to restrain any violation of this section or rules adopted thereunder, in accordance with the procedures described in section 334 of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (42 U.S.C. 6304).
(2) Each day of unlawful occupancy shall be considered a separate violation.


You can learn a lot of these things by watching the recent documentary, Fall of the Republic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU


That sounds a bit drastic. But maybe it's the time for drastic measures?
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 15:05:21

I am extremely energy efficient in my home and daily life. I ride a 65mpg Honda scooter to commute to work and the store, I don't use the clothes drier, I don't use the house air conditioner and heater hardly at all and I turn off vampire electrical devices. I don't water my grass (turf grass is a ridiculous idea). I grow my own vegetables.

I do have a dog, however, which has been called environmental assassination in the past 2 weeks by the MSM.

But NO ONE is going to bully me about my own home, fine me for unlawfully occupying my own home or try and dispossess me of it. No one.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 15:18:22

Jotapay wrote:I am extremely energy efficient in my home and daily life. I ride a 65mpg Honda scooter to commute to work and the store, I don't use the clothes drier, I don't use the house air conditioner and heater hardly at all and I turn off vampire electrical devices. I do have a dog, however, which has been called environmental assassination in the past 2 weeks by the MSM.

But NO ONE is going to bully me about my own home, fine me for unlawfully occupying my own home or try and dispossess me of it. No one.


How energy-efficient is your house? And isn't there a timeframe for becoming compliant? If these idiots had actually invested money into this kind of thing rather than giving handouts to bankers, I would be happier. But they didn't. There must be some kind of tax rebate on the renovation though.

My big worry is that these people may not properly understand moderm passive solar design, for example, and their assessments may be totally awry due to their lack of understanding of how materials interact for better insulation, ventilation etc.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 15:19:01

mos6507 wrote:
Why is it that half of the thrust of this site is slamming sheeple for their Hummers and McMansions and the other half is spent fearmongering that TPTB will start micromanaging our consumption like some kind of Sarah Palin talking point?


You're right Mos. That just seems wrong.

How about we include about 30% of the site to post climate cult articles and you and the other cultists can call them people who don't agree with you deniers?

Oh wait . . .
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 15:31:20

mos6507 wrote:Some people, presumably, would much rather hold onto their freedoms at the expense of any hopes of a controlled energy descent. To me that is an unacceptable tradeoff.


This is Mos' theory in a nutshell. It happens to also be the central tenet of Marxism.

Mos camoflages his Marxist beliefs by couching them in the terms of the climate change cult - "we all have to give up personal liberties so that the planet doesn't kill us" - but the truth is that Mos would have you give up your liberties for the good of everybody whether it was required or not.


What Mos is saying, convolutedly and inelegantly, is that the rights of the collective trump the rights of the individual.

When this opinion takes over, that's when every self-respecting human should lock and load.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 15:33:17

mos6507 wrote:
davep wrote:Mos, what worries me about a top-down model is the inevitability of the Government pandering more to corporate interests than those of the populace. It's a hard habit to break.


But in the end one has to endorse something, damn it.


Nonsense. You're in complete denial.

You can't come to grips with the fact that it's all going down in flames, so you're running around the cabin screaming at the ones who have resigned themselves to their fate and screaming at them to "do something."
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 15:37:04

Jotapay wrote:e


You're level headed and an excellent contributor to this site, but your characterization of the bill was extreme.

There is no indication that the law will be used to inspect existing houses.

Like virtually every statutory provision involving home inspection, this one, as well, will likely be implemented for new construction/renovation only.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 15:39:43

This is the best thread in PO.com in as long as I can remember.

It'll be fun when the big sh-t starts reaching the fan.

This has been great, and it's only a minor bit of defecation.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 15:42:58

davep wrote:1. How energy-efficient is your house?

2. And isn't there a timeframe for becoming compliant?


1. Not very, but I don't use the climate control that much. It's a 55 year old house with large windows, built/owned by a master craftsman who worked on many of the older buildings in the Austin area, like the LBJ presidential library. It was made to not rely on air conditioning that much. The structure is very well made. I'm in the middle of improving the insulation but I don't ever want to replace these windows. The huge oaks shade the house quite a bit from the Texas sun.

2. I think so.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 16:47:23

Dr. Ofellati wrote:
Jotapay wrote:e


You're level headed and an excellent contributor to this site, but your characterization of the bill was extreme.

There is no indication that the law will be used to inspect existing houses.

Like virtually every statutory provision involving home inspection, this one, as well, will likely be implemented for new construction/renovation only.


Well shoot, it looks like what I thought isn't true. After looking over the bill a little bit and searching for home auditing/inspection references, I can't find any that can prove mandatory inspections of existing homes, which is what has been claimed in the past. So it appears that this bill doesn't authorize hoards of inspectors to be unleashed on our residences, which is what I've heard claimed by people. The passages from the bill I quoted above were read by house members during the debate on the bill. I'll have to look later and see towards what action they actually reference.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 18:30:29

Once a country acknowledges the reality of near peak oil many of the problems become tractable engineering ones rather than those of lassitude and inaction. We alreay have a basic template with which to plan for dealing with this crisis, the way democracies responded to total war in WWII. That required a loss of liberties, a top down comand economy and extreme hardship. But democracy survived and thrived, people adapted and adjusted and the world kept turning.

If people are too surrender there personal liberties then they have to take more responsibility for montioring and engaging with the political process. If you surrender choice to wider social need, then you have to become more a part of wider society.

The current insular fetishism of the individual is an aberration in human political terms. We have mostly lived in less indiviualistic but more alutristic societies. Societies that can graps this have a big advantage over those that think individual rights and lack of attention will continue for any length of time.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby deMolay » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 23:04:26

I kind of take a contrary view on that, as the unwinding gets really going I think we will see less and less of the Gubmint. Costs of projecting power.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 02:23:04

rangerone314 wrote:105 mil/bbl by 2030?

I do wonder what they project in between now and then, like for 2020, and for 2012 and 2016...

I'd say if they have figures projected for those years, and 2012 rolls around and the figures are lower than projected for 2012 or even lower than 2008, it'd be pretty obvious what 2030 is going to look like.

As I pointed out above, the graph:

Image

shows that"Crude oil - fields yet to be developed" will be 20 million barrels per day in 2013.

We should not have to wait till 2013 to know the answer, since any field that will be producing by then will be under development now - hiring, booking rigs, ordering pipe etc.

We just need to ask Mr. OilFinder for a list of "fields yet to be developed" with their expected production by 2013.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 03:48:34

Keith_McClary wrote:We just need to ask Mr. OilFinder for a list of "fields yet to be developed" with their expected production by 2013.


Hubbert, in 1956 when he made his prediction of world oil peak in about 2000 at 13 billion barrels a year, calculated that his "fields yet to be found", otherwise known as, "ain't been found", comprised 75% of his total estimate of what the world contained.

In other words, he made up 75% of the volume he used to make his bell shaped curve work. The IEA looks like it is doing something similar to Hubberts tried and true method, with a much smaller % involved. Seems reasonable, considering that we've used quite a bit since Hubberts 1956 paper.
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