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Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby JPL » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 08:13:10

Ah at last a thread worth joining! I'll try and give the UK angle on this one.

1. The Guardian newspaper

Is a Socialist-leaning UK broadsheet, BTW. I personally switched to it about a year ago as I found it's coverage of the financial crisis pretty good, it has in this respect been refreshingly critical of the UK government (which is also supposed to be Socialist). So wheras, as an outlet for the 'Establishment' it's a natural candidate, I don't find it so these days. I think it's independence is thus proven (IMO).

Running this story a few days ago was a pretty good scoop for them, I read the printed version and the article had a 'hold the front page' air about it. It was very short and there was no follow-up inside (late to press, in other words). So I think it's 'genuine' journalism rather than a 'managed' release by the UK government.

Also you have to look at the nature of the article. 'World running out of oil' is NOT news (it hasn't been since the 70's). 'IEA cover-up of figures' IS. So again, I think this is just genuine investigative journalism. With regard to the follow-up articles, well I bet there's plenty of journalists out there that can use the internet. Some of them can probably even find PO.com all on their own. So the rest of the material is easy to explain. I don't see any sinister forces at work here.

2. The IEA.

A bit of a breathtaking turn-around here (re:AGW). One might say they are finally doing their job, in that it's impossible to consider 21'st century energy policy without reference to counter-AGW stratagies. Having said which, the schizophrenia of the report does seem to show that the organization may be in increasing disarray - maybe the Guardian are right in this respect. An AGW-centric stance for the IEA would really have made more sense if they had adopted it 10 years ago when oil was $20 a barrel. I don't know what they are now discussing internally but I suspect the expression 'between a rock and a hard place' might fit here.

Again, I don't see much evidence of a managed stratagy here. Rather the opposite.

3.The role of States and Corporates post peak-oil.

To bring a dose of reality back here, the dominant issue of 2009/10/11 is still going to be the financial mess that the G7 countries (particularly the US, UK and Japan are in). In particular their governments. If Peak Oil has a bearing here, it's probably that rising oil prices (once again) are likly to further wreck State (I mean Federal, if you live in the US) finances. This makes any top-level, managed response to either AGW or Peak Oil increasingly difficuilt. Particularly in the US, the prospect of State Failure becomes increasingly great. In this context I don't yet see any sort of coherent response at all - I don't loose sleep worrying that the carbon police might come to knock my door down one day. I don't think any major country has these plans in place - right or wrong - to 'manage' us off carbon. Again, increasing political schizophrenia seems to be the order of the day. Shouting one thing and doing another. That's the world we live in at the moment. Who knows what happens next, but for now I just expect more of the same.

The Corporates of course are not States (again I mean Federal). Part of the UK experience post-80's was that while private companies can run some things (telecoms for example) well, public utilities such as railways, hospitals and policing are a disaster in the hands of the free market. A market that cannot of course, function without this things operating in the background. So the Coporates neither want to run States or have the ability to do so. Against a background of failing 'big government' their activities would be hampered to the extent that they may pull out entirely from countries that are unable to keep services running. McDonalds recent withdrawal from Icelend being an example. So I don't see IBM stepping forward to run the world, much as some of us might (secretly) want them to.

So the future really is just down to free-thinking individuals (some of them appear to be journalists, BTW) and organised small communities. At the moment, these communities don't even have to physically together in the same place. PO.com is one such, I can think of a few others...

Anyhow I shall stop rambling now - must get back to work. See y'all...

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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Quinny » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 08:34:29

I'm still unsure whether the whistleblower is saying that this report is distorted, or that previous reports were. This one is so bad as it stands, that if things are actually worse than this, I'm seriously starting to worry about short term consequences ie next year.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 09:08:45

I think this is just genuine investigative journalism.


I'd have to disagree there. Someone from the IEA contacted the Guardian just prior to the publication of the 2009 World Energy Outlook. They got corroboration from an ex-colleague and printed the story.

The guardian then rushed out the story before the report was published.

This could easily be something stage-managed. I'm not saying it is, but it is most definitely not investigative journalism.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby JPL » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 09:12:33

Quinny wrote:I'm still unsure whether the whistleblower is saying that this report is distorted, or that previous reports were..


http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels.


There in black & white mate :shock:

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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 09:18:37

105 mil/bbl by 2030?

I do wonder what they project in between now and then, like for 2020, and for 2012 and 2016...

I'd say if they have figures projected for those years, and 2012 rolls around and the figures are lower than projected for 2012 or even lower than 2008, it'd be pretty obvious what 2030 is going to look like.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby JPL » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 09:22:04

davep wrote:
I think this is just genuine investigative journalism.


I'd have to disagree there. Someone from the IEA contacted the Guardian just prior to the publication of the 2009 World Energy Outlook. They got corroboration from an ex-colleague and printed the sto

The guardian then rushed out the story before the report was published.

This could easily be something stage-managed. I'm not saying it is, but it is most definitely not investigative journalism.



OK fair point but it still looks like the free press at work to me. This is the biggest story since Hitler crossed the Rhine, remember. I'm sure the authorities would have managed it better than that. 8)

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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby JPL » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 09:27:24

rangerone314 wrote:105 mil/bbl by 2030?

I do wonder what they project in between now and then, like for 2020, and for 2012 and 2016...


No room at table for ChIndia, that's basically what they're projecting. If there is a 'PTB' agenda here, that's it, staring us in the face. Can't say we weren't warned...

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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 09:28:50

JPL wrote:This is the biggest story since Hitler crossed the Rhine


And I broke it on Peakoil.com :-D

I'll be boring my grand-children with that each time they wind up the computer to get on the internet. [smilie=XXjester.gif]
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby JPL » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 09:32:31

davep wrote:
JPL wrote:This is the biggest story since Hitler crossed the Rhine


And I broke it on Peakoil.com :-D


LOL and I thought the men in black limos told you to...

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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 09:34:38

JPL wrote:
davep wrote:
JPL wrote:This is the biggest story since Hitler crossed the Rhine


And I broke it on Peakoil.com :-D


LOL and I thought the men in black limos told you to...

JP


Funnily enough, I was at the doomstead last weekend and two military-looking black helicopters came in really low towards the house. I was cacking myself for some reason. Then they... kept on going.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 10:44:45

JPL wrote:I don't loose sleep worrying that the carbon police might come to knock my door down one day. I don't think any major country has these plans in place - right or wrong - to 'manage' us off carbon. Again, increasing political schizophrenia seems to be the order of the day.


The Cap and Trade legislation that is currently in the United States House of Representatives mandates that every town have three federal employees who are environmental regulators/inspectors. They will be tasked with inspecting your house and issuing fines for violations. You also must pay for the inspection. If you continue to "unlawfully habitate" your home (the bill's words), you can be fined a certain amount of dollars every day.

This is what the bill actually says. Reading text on a page does not constitute schizophrenia. It's amazing how reading your own government's legislative bills can be labeled as a mental illness in today's bizarro world. I was watching representatives debate the bill on the House floor on C-SPAN and one was reading from the bill, stating the above. I can try and find the exact text, if you like.
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Re: IEA Whistleblower Says Oil Reserves Numbers Manipulated

Unread postby deMolay » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 10:49:20

Article cites claims supporting the whistleblower. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-in ... le1360337/
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Maddog78 » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 10:52:12

Jotapay wrote:The Cap and Trade legislation that is currently in the United States House of Representatives mandates that every town have three federal employees who are environmental regulators/inspectors. They will be tasked with inspecting your house and issuing fines for violations. You also must pay for the inspection. If you continue to "unlawfully habitate" your home (the bill's words), you can be fined a certain amount of dollars every day.



8O If something like this passes in the U.S. the copycats in Ottawa will most likely lay something like this on us.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby rangerone314 » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 10:55:27

davep wrote:
JPL wrote:
davep wrote:
JPL wrote:This is the biggest story since Hitler crossed the Rhine


And I broke it on Peakoil.com :-D


LOL and I thought the men in black limos told you to...

JP


Funnily enough, I was at the doomstead last weekend and two military-looking black helicopters came in really low towards the house. I was cacking myself for some reason. Then they... kept on going.

They were my friends and future warlords... err business associates surveying their future domain.
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Re: IEA Whistleblower Says Oil Reserves Numbers Manipulated

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 11:04:39

Mods, can you merge these johnny-come-latelys into my thread? :badgrin:
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Re: IEA Whistleblower Says Oil Reserves Numbers Manipulated

Unread postby MD » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 11:06:59

davep wrote:Mods, can you merge these johnny-come-latelys into my thread? :badgrin:


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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby JPL » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 13:20:43

Jotapay wrote:
JPL wrote:I don't loose sleep worrying that the carbon police might come to knock my door down one day. I don't think any major country has these plans in place - right or wrong - to 'manage' us off carbon. Again, increasing political schizophrenia seems to be the order of the day.


The Cap and Trade legislation that is currently in the United States House of Representatives mandates that every town have three federal employees who are environmental regulators/inspectors. They will be tasked with inspecting your house and issuing fines for violations. You also must pay for the inspection. If you continue to "unlawfully habitate" your home (the bill's words), you can be fined a certain amount of dollars every day.

This is what the bill actually says. Reading text on a page does not constitute schizophrenia. It's amazing how reading your own government's legislative bills can be labeled as a mental illness in today's bizarro world. I was watching representatives debate the bill on the House floor on C-SPAN and one was reading from the bill, stating the above. I can try and find the exact text, if you like.


Yea, I'd be interested to read that.

On the part of the UK government I can definitely say that schizophrenia is the order of the day. I was watching the 'Energy and Climate Change Secretary' (sic) Ed Milliban interviewed on TV a few days ago - every time he mentioned the word coal he prefixed it with the word 'clean' and stared hopefully at the camera. Apparently burning coal will now be good for the environment. The poor man has clearly gone mad. Interview's here, if anyone's interested:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00nxbm3

edit: (interview starts at 8.40 min)

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Last edited by JPL on Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:07:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Jotapay » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 13:27:48

JPL wrote:On the part of the UK government I can definitely say that schizophrenia is the order of the day. I was watching the 'Energy and Climate Change Secretary' (sic) Ed Milliban interviewed on TV a few days ago - every time he mentioned the word coal he prefixed it with the word 'clean' and stared hopefully at the camera. Apparently burning coal will now be good for the environment. The poor man has clearly gone mad. Interview's here, if anyone's interested:


Don't get me started about your country. I can't believe it's slid into the nanny-state where everyone spies on each other and you can be ticketed for using banned words. I'm mostly of Welsh and Scottish stock, so it pains me to see that.

I'll search for the exact text the representative was referring to during breaks between programming today.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:09:23

Jotapay wrote:The Cap and Trade legislation that is currently in the United States House of Representatives mandates that every town have three federal employees who are environmental regulators/inspectors. They will be tasked with inspecting your house and issuing fines for violations. You also must pay for the inspection. If you continue to "unlawfully habitate" your home (the bill's words), you can be fined a certain amount of dollars every day.


Why is it that half of the thrust of this site is slamming sheeple for their Hummers and McMansions and the other half is spent fearmongering that TPTB will start micromanaging our consumption like some kind of Sarah Palin talking point? You simply can't have it both ways. Considering tragedy of the commons, jevon's paradox, etc... people will not powerdown until some force compels them to. As I said before, that usually involves the frog boiling in the pot. In this case, that means everybody boils in climate change, etc.... Therefore if we're all in this together, the idea that we should be allowed to individually consume with impunity as an inalienable human right is an illusion. At some point we have an obligation to restrain our consumption or Gaia will do the dirty work for us. To think otherwise is to keep one foot firmly planted in the realm of BAU, or the age of exhuberance in which there are no limits to growth, the invisible hand will take car of things, etc....

Any approach to dealing with this problem through preaching what is right and wrong to people is doomed to fail because overconsumption is part of the human condition. You'll never get enough voluntary buy-off on intentional austerity, contraception, etc... to mitigate the problem. You're therefore left with "statist" sticks. Either you wield them or you let things just unravel on their own, which will be very messy.

So this overemphasis on impinging on personal liberties I feel totally misses the boat on the larger issues of how people, left to their own devices, are pushing the planet into a mass extinction. I really don't think letting people burn through a tank of fuel oil a day to warm their uninsulated McMansions on the basis of absolute freedom is worth fighting for.

To frame the problem as primarily top-down corruption rather than also a collective failure of individual choices is fatally flawed.

Some people, presumably, would much rather hold onto their freedoms at the expense of any hopes of a controlled energy descent. To me that is an unacceptable tradeoff.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:16:37

Mos, what worries me about a top-down model is the inevitability of the Government pandering more to corporate interests than those of the populace. It's a hard habit to break.
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