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Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Homesteader » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 14:46:08

pstarr wrote:
davep wrote:
Jotapay wrote:Mos, the issue a lot of us have with the Time article (and the several dozen other articles about the IEA whistle blower story) is that it seems contrived. Time is a corporate behemoth. Nothing escapes its walls without careful planning and input from several sources. I work for one of the largest multi-national corporations the world has ever seen, I know how we roll. The fact that this Time article (1) was released less than 24 hours after the whistleblower story first surfaced, and (2) whose tone is also a 180 degree about-face from past negative stories on peak oil, is quite notable. I find it unbelievable that Time would be able to roll out a story that so differs from their past stances on Peak Oil in just a few hours.

The problem we have with this is not the mainstream's recognition of peak oil. It's that corporate interests are going to co-opt peak oil now. When an organic movement is co-opted by corporations, the best interests of the citizenry are never served. Corporations use the movement to further their own agenda and generate more profits for themselves under the guise of being "good". It looks like this is going to be used to push treaties like the Copenhagen climate treaty which will severely limit national sovereignty and personal Liberty while increasing corporate and governmental control over our lives.

What we need is to move towards more localized, sustainable economies and communities. What will happen if peak oil is corporatized is that the decisions about human activity, energy usage and planning will be made by a handful of CEOs on a world-wide scale. Think of Mao in China during the cultural revolution as an analogy. I hate to sound like such a hippie but we need an organic movement to change our lives and deal with Peak Oil, not multinational corporations and SWAT teams using Peak Oil as another excuse to exercise more control over our lives.


<applauds>

Count me in also :)


Me too.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby kpeavey » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 14:55:49

The articles in the Guadrian and in Time, combined with the IEA WEO report represent a showing of cards by TPTB. Its a public and formal acknowledgment of Peak Oil, and gives us a better picture of what is in store as far as government actions. Is is clear that Climate Change will be the publicly presented crisis by which petroleum use is turned into Taboo in order to belay the worst parts of oil decline.

So corporate interests will co-opt Peak Oil and its effects. Nothing unexpected here. If there is money to be made, of course corporations will have a hand in it.

It is important to remember that these corporate giants and government controls are still energy intensive in their operations, and as such will eventually succumb to decline.

In the end, sustainable, local economies and communities will be the dominant paradigm.

We are getting deeper into The Transition. The most certain thing we have always known is that The Transition will be unpredicatble. We know what has happened before the peak. We know where we'll eventually be. Its the passage out of BAU and into sustainable communities that we can't know. We know it will be ordered at the start-governments and corporations making the calls. We know that The Transition will move into an unordered phase-corporations shutting down, governments losing control, societies falling apart.

The most significant aspect of these articles and the WEO report is that they serve as a mile marker. Peak Oil is no longer a theory or a future event. It is a current event, and one that will become all the more mainstream as more people come to understand what it means.

There will be economic problems, loss of liberties, corporate mergers and acquisitions. There will be new laws and changes in procedure. Standards of living will undoubtedly decline for most people. None of this should be a surprise to anyone around here. These will be the days of price spikes and oil shocks, inflation and unemployment. Bread lines and tent cities. We've been talking about it for years. Now it is time to live it.

We now face the question: Do we work real hard to keep things as peaceful and gentle as possible on this downhill slide, or do we tear off the band aid while we still have resources with which to start over.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Jotapay » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 14:56:46

mos6507 wrote:If you know of a way to reduce CO2 output that doesn't raise your libertarian hackles, let me know. Saying "What we need is to move towards more localized, sustainable economies and communities." by itself isn't going to accomplish much if nobody signs on. It's just a platitude. Otherwise I suggest you get your priorities in order regarding the gravity of climate change. Because the way we're headed, your personal liberty's not gonna last very long when the zombies come banging down the door to make you into long-pork stew.


I think your points here are valid, but an organic sea change in regards to Peak Oil is possible, even if it's unlikely. It would take sufficient crisis at great pain to make this happen, as has happened in the past with the American civil rights movement and the liberation of India under Ghandi's direction.

But I don't see the corporatization of peak oil as a good solution to the problem, really. Global corporations are diametrically opposed to localized, sustainable economies, which is what we need. Corporations would restrict human activity through massive regulation on our everyday lives to reduce energy through central planning. It would be better if the economy were reorganized into more localized/regional structures with emphasis on regional self-sufficiency. Citizens would be more productive with more work and have a better standard of living under this system. Corporations will never allow us to take this path because they are committed to global operations and planning.

I would rather be a productive blacksmith, electrician or small business owner in my local community than a specialist in a cubicle where every thing I do during the day is dictated by the corporate headquarters on the other side of the world. I already do the latter and it's not a pretty long term existence.

Again, I think your points are valid. It's not going to be pretty no matter how this hashes itself out.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 15:58:41

Jotapay wrote:I think your points here are valid, but an organic sea change in regards to Peak Oil is possible, even if it's unlikely. It would take sufficient crisis at great pain to make this happen, as has happened in the past with the American civil rights movement and the liberation of India under Ghandi's direction.

But I don't see the corporatization of peak oil as a good solution to the problem, really. Global corporations are diametrically opposed to localized, sustainable economies, which is what we need. Corporations would restrict human activity through massive regulation on our everyday lives to reduce energy through central planning. It would be better if the economy were reorganized into more localized/regional structures with emphasis on regional self-sufficiency. Citizens would be more productive with more work and have a better standard of living under this system. Corporations will never allow us to take this path because they are committed to global operations and planning.

I would rather be a productive blacksmith, electrician or small business owner in my local community than a specialist in a cubicle where every thing I do during the day is dictated by the corporate headquarters on the other side of the world. I already do the latter and it's not a pretty long term existence.

Again, I think your points are valid. It's not going to be pretty no matter how this hashes itself out.


For once, I don't really find much fault with that. Out of all of your posts, this is one of the few where you actually propose something that average people should do (aside from arming the bunker) rather than just talking about how bad TPTB is. I guess I just dislike the emphasis that you tend to put on fearmongering on the corporatist canard, which can too easily be used as an excuse to do nothing. And we know that a do-nothing scenario by itself feeds the corporate machine. I mean, as long as people are expected to voluntarily powerdown, they won't until the frog begins to boil in the pot. If the idea of carbon taxes and other "statist" sticks and carrots is so abhorrent to your libertarian sensibilities that you'd rather wait until the frog boils in the pot, then fine. You just seem to have more faith in human nature to do the right thing with all that freedom you covet than I do. We're ultimately held hostage by the wisdom (or lack thereof) of the masses. You're too busy worrying about jack boot thugs to worry about the collective impact of Joe the Plumbers.
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Re: IEA Whistleblower??? Interesting article!

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 16:05:56

AirlinePilot wrote:Link

Image

"Crude oil - fields yet to be developed" will be 20 million barrels per day in 2013.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 16:52:48

Wow. There is a clear inflection point with the existing fields, and a fair amount of uncertainty about future supplies.

You can clearly see how just to stay on the plateau when subtracting NGL there needs to be balls-to-the-wall investment to develop new discoveries. That's assuming the estimates for these news discoveries is even accurate.

If you disregard NGL, then in a worst-case scenario of production destruction, i.e. new field development being delayed or otherwise hindered, then we start going down Hubbert's curve right about now. If new development cuts halfway between worst case and best case, then peak oil really starts to bite right around 2015, which is what I had as my best guess.

NGL is gonna be really important really fast. Paging T Boone Pickens...
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby kpeavey » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 17:03:09

I'm looking at that graph too. Fields yet to be discovered and fields yet to be developed comprise an easy 1/3 of the projected production in 20 years. The Yet to be Developed, light blue section, grows particularly fast. The currently producing fields drops to about 50% in about 15 years. Its a rough graph, but it points to a rough future, and not too far away.

---
Don't worry so much about the corporations. Looking at that graph, they won't have much control for long.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
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twenty centuries of stony sleep were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, and what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Maddog78 » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 18:18:36

I worked in the Canadian Arctic for a year in '85 and from that short experience I'd agree with this RckyMtnGuy. We had some very good n. gas finds and some small oil finds but nothing huge.
Still though, there were a lot of areas left to drill.
I wonder if we worked for the same company?

The only thing that has got me confused is the 26 vessel thing.
He must be counting every rig, supply vessel, seismic ship and rubber dinghy.
No one I knew had anything close to that number of vessels there but admittedly I was concentrating on the drilling ops. so maybe they had a lot more seismic boats floating around that I wouldn't have been aware of.
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IEA Whistleblower Says Oil Reserves Numbers Manipulated

Unread postby deMolay » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 20:04:00

Whistleblower says much less oil than stated in reports. Numbers manipulated by US pressure. Will run out of oil sooner than expected. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... rgy-agency
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Re: IEA Whistleblower Says Oil Reserves Numbers Manipulated

Unread postby deMolay » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 20:09:09

Watch the cats covering shit on the hot tin roof now.........
"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further.



A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 20:46:27

mos6507 wrote:
Jotapay wrote:Copenhagen climate treaty which will severely limit national sovereignty and personal Liberty


If you know of a way to reduce CO2 output that doesn't raise your libertarian hackles, let me know. Saying "What we need is to move towards more localized, sustainable economies and communities." by itself isn't going to accomplish much if nobody signs on. It's just a platitude. Otherwise I suggest you get your priorities in order regarding the gravity of climate change. Because the way we're headed, your personal liberty's not gonna last very long when the zombies come banging down the door to make you into long-pork stew.


Mos you sanctimonious culter. CO2 is a very minor greenhouse gas and reducing it will have a minor effect on the climate. Why not download some data from your fellow cultist Sid Yama regarding the methalates or whatever he drones on about coming out of the ocean like the Kraken to kill us all. 1 in 8 climatologists don't believe that human behavior substantially contributes to global warming. Deeper probing would probably reveal that 4 in 8 don't really think it either, but have been brow beaten by cultists like you and your cries of "denier" into keeping quiet.

We're on the downslope of oil production. They need a cover.

The IEA and other oil people are, SUDDENLY, all about climate change carbon emission reduction.

That corporate ass rag Time is, SUDDENLY, not so negative about peak oil.

Why is it Mos, that those who disagree with your positions (GW, Holocaust numbers, PO) that something did or is happening are deniers and those with whom you disagree about positions they hold based on evidence are conspiracy nuts (911, PO cover story of GW)??

You're the perfect George Carlin person who thinks everybody driving slower than him is an idiot and everybody driving faster is a maniac.

Don't be a denier Mos. TPTB appear poised to use CC as a cover story for peak oil. You should be happy about that. Your cult gets its way with a tax on everything carbon that can be burned.

I can't wait to hear how they'll rationalize that I should pay a carbon tax on the wood I cut out of my forest.
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Re: IEA Whistleblower Says Oil Reserves Numbers Manipulated

Unread postby Leutnant » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 20:49:23

surprised it wasn't posted here earlier,
the article isn't being spread around in the mainstream media, has'nt seen any american newspaper covering it
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Re: IEA Whistleblower??? Interesting article!

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 20:50:13

Keith_McClary wrote:
AirlinePilot wrote:Link

Image

"Crude oil - fields yet to be developed" will be 20 million barrels per day in 2013.


This chart is such a canard it's really quite sad that it's served up in the latest round of who-can-lie-the-best.

How about we start with the fact that the sum of the curve is a linear rise into infinity.

Then add that "oil fields yet to be found" appear also to rise linearly and account for much of the final linear rise.

This chart is exactly what was ordered from these fools - something that shows that we can't possibly have a problem until after 2030. That's 20 years. Who's thinking further out than that? Nobody.

God we are stupid and God do we have what's coming to us.
Last edited by Dr. Ofellati on Wed 11 Nov 2009, 20:56:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 20:53:37

mos6507 wrote: If new development cuts halfway between worst case and best case, then peak oil really starts to bite right around 2015, which is what I had as my best guess.


Don't know what you mean by "start to bite," but the evidence seems to suggest that we are in deep sh-t and sinking right now.

I'd be surprised if we make it through 2010 without major upheavals in the oil markets and consequent fall out in the economy.

Summer 08 was no accident - just the tide pulling out before the tsunami.
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Re: IEA Whistleblower Says Oil Reserves Numbers Manipulated

Unread postby Maddog78 » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 21:12:05

surprised it wasn't posted here earlier,



http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-reports/key ... 56606.html

There's already an 11 page thread on this. :lol:
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Re: IEA Whistleblower Says Oil Reserves Numbers Manipulated

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 21:18:39

Leutnant wrote:the article isn't being spread around in the mainstream media, has'nt seen any american newspaper covering it


Not quite ... its' been covered by Time, Reuters, Forbes ... and even ZombieHunters.org ... :razz:
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby Homesteader » Wed 11 Nov 2009, 23:17:57

kpeavey wrote:The articles in the Guadrian and in Time, combined with the IEA WEO report represent a showing of cards by TPTB. Its a public and formal acknowledgment of Peak Oil, and gives us a better picture of what is in store as far as government actions. Is is clear that Climate Change will be the publicly presented crisis by which petroleum use is turned into Taboo in order to belay the worst parts of oil decline.

So corporate interests will co-opt Peak Oil and its effects. Nothing unexpected here. If there is money to be made, of course corporations will have a hand in it.

It is important to remember that these corporate giants and government controls are still energy intensive in their operations, and as such will eventually succumb to decline.

In the end, sustainable, local economies and communities will be the dominant paradigm.

We are getting deeper into The Transition. The most certain thing we have always known is that The Transition will be unpredicatble. We know what has happened before the peak. We know where we'll eventually be. Its the passage out of BAU and into sustainable communities that we can't know. We know it will be ordered at the start-governments and corporations making the calls. We know that The Transition will move into an unordered phase-corporations shutting down, governments losing control, societies falling apart.

The most significant aspect of these articles and the WEO report is that they serve as a mile marker. Peak Oil is no longer a theory or a future event. It is a current event, and one that will become all the more mainstream as more people come to understand what it means.

There will be economic problems, loss of liberties, corporate mergers and acquisitions. There will be new laws and changes in procedure. Standards of living will undoubtedly decline for most people. None of this should be a surprise to anyone around here. These will be the days of price spikes and oil shocks, inflation and unemployment. Bread lines and tent cities. We've been talking about it for years. Now it is time to live it.

We now face the question: Do we work real hard to keep things as peaceful and gentle as possible on this downhill slide, or do we tear off the band aid while we still have resources with which to start over.


Good post.

Sometimes there aren't any solutions, just adaptations. BAU and LAU(Life As Usual) appears to be going away. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
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Re: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure-whistleblower

Unread postby argyle » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 06:29:57

"People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people."
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