Germany: The Solar Super Power!

[cephalotus]

And the cost of the labor was one of the highest costs of the maintenance, not a cost that can simply be rejected. Plus bad inverters are one of the leading causes of failed pv systems. It's not just the cost of the inverter, is the cost of the labor to replace it(remember, this was about a power plant not your house).

It's easy, quick and cheap to replace inverters for PV plants. Often they come with a 10 year warranty and replacement guarantee within 1-2 working days.

If you have high maintenance costs for a PV power plant you are doing something wrong or the plant is located in an area with some special effects.

The quotes from that article are total levelized system costs, not feed in tariffs. Levelized costs take everything into account, from installation to decommissioning. One factor considered in levelized cost is Capacity Factor...

Feed in tariffs are HIGHER than costs (everything included), otherwise not anybody would invest in such a PV power plant. So the total cost of PV generation in Germany (and elsewhere with FIT) is LOWER than the feed in tariffs and of course this includes capacity factors.

For large PV power plants (and an assumed lifetime of just 20 years) the costs for PV electricity is now (year 2012) around 10€ct/kWh in Germany and this is with 1.000kWh/kWp*a.

If you calculate with 21 USct/kWh in 2016 for the US which has much more sun you are doing something very wrong over there. In my opinion either PV power plant installers in the US have not matured yet and are cost inefficient or the calculation n your link is already badly outdated.

The US should be able to produce PV electricity at around 8USct/kWh by 2016. A PV Power plant should not cost more than 1200US$/kW in 2016, maybe even less.

This is a forecast from a German installation company. Feel free to compare prices and ask yourself why you have to pay much more for PV electricity in sunny US compared to cloudy Germany:

http://www.wattner.de/fileadmin/downloa ... 5999827496

Maybe high maintenance costs are not a fault of the PV technology, but a fault of your installers (which of course like making money for doing nothing, if they are allowed to)

[kublikhan]

Cephalotus, I think you are still misunderstanding what levelized costs are. Our numbers are not different because US installers are grosely overcharging. They are different because you are trying to do an apples to oranges comparison. Also, I think you are continuing to downplay operating and maintenance costs(O&M). The costs are real. Perhaps this may explain these points better than I:

The LCOE equation is an evaluation of the life-cycle energy cost and life-cycle energy production. It allows alternative technologies to be compared when different scales of operation, investment or operating time periods exist. For example, the LCOE could be used to compare the cost of energy generated by a PV power plant with that of a fossil fuel-generating unit or another renewable technology. It captures capital costs, ongoing system-related costs and fuel costs – along with the amount of electricity produced – and converts them into a common metric: $/kWh.

When evaluating the LCOE and comparing other commonly known $/kWh benchmarks it is important to remember that the LCOE is an evaluation of levelized life cycle energy costs. The price of energy established under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) or by feed-in-tariffs (FITs) may differ substantially from the LCOE of a given PV technology as they may represent different contract or incentive durations, inclusion of incentives such as tax benefits or accelerated depreciation, financing structures, and in some cases, the value of time of day production tariffs.

To understand the LCOE outlook for utility-scale PV it is important to understand the lifetime system performance and cost. The following sections summarize key cost and performance drivers for a utility-scale PV power plant.

PV Power Plant Performance
The lifetime energy generated from a PV power plant is a product of the plant location, annual performance for a given capacity, component degradation and system lifetime.

System Capacity Factor
The capacity factor is a key driver of a solar project’s economics. With the majority of the expense of a PV power plant being fixed, capital cost LCOE is strongly correlated to the power plant’s utilization. To understand the LCOE outlook for utility-scale PV it is important to understand the lifetime system performance and cost. The following sections summarize key cost and performance drivers for a utility-scale PV power plant.

The economic impact of the capacity factor is substantial. Figure 3 illustrates a range of identical LCOE values, expressed in $/kWh, for a given PV power plant system price as expressed in $/Wp and the associated capacity factor. As the capacity factor declines, the required installed system price must also substantially decline to maintain system economics. For example, a $2.50/Wp system with a 24 percent capacity factor (such as with a fixed tilt configuration) delivers the same LCOE as a $3.50/Wp system with a 34 percent capacity factor (such as with a tracker). The highest capacity factors are generated with trackers which follow the sun throughout the day to keep the panel optimally oriented towards the sun. This tracking also has the benefit of generating more energy in the peak electricity demand periods of the afternoon.

PV Power Plant Operating Expenses
The operation and maintenance (O&M) of a PV power plant is relatively straightforward because there are few moving parts and no cooling systems. O&M costs generally scale with three factors 1) system peak power dominated by inverter maintenance, 2) system annual energy production density, and (3) general site related items.

Significant power related maintenance costs also exist with respect to transformers, switch gear and grid interconnection, and all benefit from a high capacity factor system configuration. Module cleaning, panel repair or replacement, mounting structure and wiring maintenance, and vegetation control all scale with the annual energy production density of the panels.

O&M costs which correlate with the area of PV panels used can thus be reduced using high-efficiency PV panels mounted on tracking systems. A simple example of these O&M savings is with the cost of cleaning panels. With a high annual energy production density panel, washing costs can be reduced by up to 75 percent. This allows for either a direct reduction of O&M costs or allows for panels to be washed more frequently and economically, increasing system annual energy production. Although often overlooked, washing and soiling can have a material impact to a PV power plant LCOE. In a tracking system there is the added cost of motor and controller maintenance.

Looking to the future, opportunities for O&M cost reduction include improved inverter reliability, scale economies from larger plant sizes, automated washing and water recycling tools, and sophisticated remote monitoring.

The Drivers of the Levelized Cost of Electricity for Utility-Scale Photovoltaics

Or if you prefer a more Euro centric source:

Operation and maintenance
In addition to costs of the technology itself, the cost of operation and maintenance is another important factor to consider. These costs do not figure in construction of the installation, but can add up quite considerably over the service life of a solar power plant. For each kilowatt hour of solar power generated, between one and ten euro cents fall to the costs incurred during the 20-25 year operation of a plant. Currently, investors can expect to pay around 10,000 to 14,000 euro for operation and maintenance on top of costs for the technical system.

Regular checks
PV plants in the megawatt range also require regular checks by staff. regular visual checks, on-site thermal imaging, remote monitoring of strings and inverters as well as the evaluation and storage of data are indispensible. operation and maintenance costs account for between 3 and 5% of the solar yield. If well planned and performed, they can help increase yields by up to 15%.

High energy yield through professional operations management
Producing electrical energy from sunlight is almost completely wear- and maintenance- free. However, continuous monitoring of the solar power plant is sensible, not only to prevent loss of yield, but also to operate the system reliably over the entire life-cycle. The long operating times necessitate professional operations management, in which BELECTRIC is responsible for all technical tasks. The real-time monitoring system facilitates reliable remote monitoring of the photovoltaic plant and allows access to the yield data. State-of-the-art cleaning robots guarantee lasting and efficient operation of the photovoltaic modules in all regions.

PV Power Plants 2011 - Industry Guide

Regular on site checks, thermal imaging, monitoring equipment, state of the art robots, this stuff is not cheap. I hope this makes it clear that a megawatt PV plant requires quite a bit more maintenance than those panels on your roof.

[cephalotus]

Cephalotus, I think you are still misunderstanding what levelized costs are. Our numbers are not different because US installers are grosely overcharging. They are different because you are trying to do an apples to oranges comparison. Also, I think you are continuing to downplay operating and maintenance costs(O&M). The costs are real. Perhaps this may explain these points better than I:

I know the calculations for O&M costs that the finacing banks do use. Mostly that between 1% and 2% per year of the invest cost.

This is about future prices on PV powert plants:

http://www.wattner.de/fileadmin/downloa ... 202017.pdf

You can see LCOE at around 10€ct/kWh for a 10% interest rate in 2016 in Germany. (p. 24ff)

(at 2% interest rate = inflation the price would be as low as 3 €ct/kWh!)

They make their calculations with OpEx az 1,5%.

At system cost of 840 €/kWp (in 2016) this translates to anual OpEx costs of 13€/kWp or 13€/980kWh = 1,3 €ct/kWh at 980kWh/kWp in cloudy Germany.

The economic impact of the capacity factor is substantial.

This is why PV costs should be LOWER in the US than in Germany, but is seems to be vice versa.

Figure 3 illustrates a range of identical LCOE values, expressed in $/kWh, for a given PV power plant system price as expressed in $/Wp and the associated capacity factor. As the capacity factor declines, the required installed system price must also substantially decline to maintain system economics. For example, a $2.50/Wp system with a 24 percent capacity factor (such as with a fixed tilt configuration) delivers the same LCOE as a $3.50/Wp system with a 34 percent capacity factor (such as with a tracker).

System costs for fixed mounted PV power plants are around (and sometimes even lower) than 1,50US$/Wp in Germany NOW.

If you pay 2,50$/Wp maybe you also pay 3-5 times higer prices for maintanance.

For each kilowatt hour of solar power generated, between one and ten euro cents fall to the costs incurred during the 20-25 year operation of a plant. Currently, investors can expect to pay around 10,000 to 14,000 euro for operation and maintenance on top of costs for the technical system.

In Gemany those costs are around 15€/kWp now, thats 300€/kWp in 20 years.

If you pay 10.000€/kWp for operation and maintenance over 20 years you ar doing something VERY wrong.

PV plants in the megawatt range also require regular checks by staff.

1 engineer is enough for 100MW. At 100.000€ salery this translates to 1€/kWp per year.

regular visual checks, on-site thermal imaging, remote monitoring of strings and inverters as well as the evaluation and storage of data are indispensible.

You have extern companies which are specialised to do this. Output quality of each string is monitored by automatic systems.

operation and maintenance costs account for between 3 and 5% of the solar yield.

At 1000kWh/kWp and 13€ct/kWh solar yield this would be 4€-6€/kWp for 1 year.

Some lines above you are talking about 10.000€-14.000€/kWp over 20 years?

If well planned and performed, they can help increase yields by up to 15%.

How do you improve solar yield by 15%? Please explain. If something is broken autoamtic monitoring system,s will recognice this and you will have to fiy it. Cleaing would improve yield typically by less than 1-2% and only for a few days, this is way it isn't done regularely.
The only thing which you have to take care for are growing plants but you can also use robotic movers for that or you take that into account when choseing rack heights and underground plants.

Producing electrical energy from sunlight is almost completely wear- and maintenance- free. However, continuous monitoring of the solar power plant is sensible, not only to prevent loss of yield, but also to operate the system reliably over the entire life-cycle. The long operating times necessitate professional operations management, in which BELECTRIC is responsible for all technical tasks. The real-time monitoring system facilitates reliable remote monitoring of the photovoltaic plant and allows access to the yield data. State-of-the-art cleaning robots guarantee lasting and efficient operation of the photovoltaic modules in all regions.

I know the guys from belectric quite well. They use automatic systems. As I said one enegineer is enouh for 100MW and I would guess that with larger plants one engineer would be ok for 500MW.
For maintance you need extern companies that can do this the most efficient way.

Regular on site checks, thermal imaging, monitoring equipment, state of the art robots, this stuff is not cheap. I hope this makes it clear that a megawatt PV plant requires quite a bit more maintenance than those panels on your roof.

Monitoring equipment is very cheap. Most of it is already included in the inverters and included in investment costs. The rest is provide by companie that are specialised on that.

Conclusion:

LCOE of PV power plants in Germany will be lower than 10€ct/kWh by 2016.

If LCOE of PV power plants in the US will be at 21USct/kWh by 2016 this is one reason why we have more solar power in Germany than in the US. At the same cost efficiency LCOE for PV power plants should not be higher than 10USct/kWh in 2016.

I estimate that the Chinese will be able to produce electricity from their PV power plants at less than 5USct/kWh in 2016! (transmission lines from the deserts to the big cities / industry centres not included)

The Chinese know how to make things cost efficient.

[radon]

PV plants in the megawatt range also require regular checks by staff.

1 engineer is enough for 100MW. At 100.000€ salery this translates to 1€/kWp per year.

For the solar you need an engineer wandering over miles of solar installation, may be driving a light vehicle.

In order to fix a wind rig, however, you would need a heavy movable vehicle, and what is worse, an elevating vehicle. For those you would need lots and lots of transportation fuels, and this would drain energy from the discretionary use, especially as EROEI of transportation fuels turns lower or altogether negative. What if a hurricane or storm destroys an entire wind farm. These types of expenditures become particularly relevant when you consider a self-sustaining renewable energy system.

An important factor of the peak resources is that the people supply becomes more and more abundant whereas the resource supply become scarcer and scarcer, and, as a result, people become cheaper and cheaper relative to resources. That's why gas ->$4 and above. Therefore, going forward, a walking engineer << a movable vehicle and even more so for an elevating vehicle.

[dsula]

More supply = higher frequency, less supply = lower frequency.

Wrong to the bone.

[no_wuckin_ferries_mate]

More supply = higher frequency, less supply = lower frequency.

Wrong to the bone.

If power supply is not sufficient the too high load causes generators to slow down which leads to a drop in line frequency.

Better see if you can get some basic education. It might even help to read an hour or two in Wikipedia. After that you are welcome back to join the conversation again.

[kublikhan]

At system cost of 840 €/kWp (in 2016) this translates to anual OpEx costs of 13€/kWp or 13€/980kWh = 1,3 €ct/kWh at 980kWh/kWp in cloudy Germany.

That seems in line with the EIA's estimate for O&M costs: "The equivalent maintenance and operation costs in solar production (using the EIA's estimate of 1.1 cents/kWh)"

This is why PV costs should be LOWER in the US than in Germany, but is seems to be vice versa.

Financing appears to be a factor for why LCOE costs are lowering in Germany than in the US. Also, the US seems to have higher captial costs as well. However both of these factors should improve in the US as the industry matures.

Financing the key
Pearce continued that financing costs are also a major factor for LCOE and, he believes, calculations like his could help lead to cheaper loans. "One of the most important things I hopes come out of this study is that it makes bankers more comfortable with investing in long-term capital assets like solar modules."

Germany’s lower photovoltaic LCOE is evidence the effect more affordable financing can have. The country’s long history in photovoltaics no doubt assist with banks confidence with investing in projects. "The Germans get it," Pearce concluded.

PV cheaper than reported

Capital Costs
Short-term cost adjustment factors increase technology capital costs as a result of a rapid U.S. buildup in a single year, reflecting limitations on the infrastructure (for example, limits on manufacturing, resource assessment, and construction expertise) to accommodate unexpected demand growth.

Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

How do you improve solar yield by 15%? Please explain.

I believe this is referring to having clean panels vs dirty panels. Dust and dirt can lower the yield of the panels.

Contrary to common belief, solar modules are not maintenance free and require regular cleaning, dependent on their location and environment. Indeed, all manufacturers of solar modules recommend periodic cleaning of their panels.

Although PV systems and their output have been well studied and statistically measured over the last 25 years, the effects of panel soiling on performance have only recently been the subject of scientific analysis. International scientific research shows that the yield of solar systems is reduced by 3% to up to 15% due to soiling. According to the US based Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA), photovoltaic electricity output will decline approximately 10% due to accumulation of dirt, dust, and other residues. Further research cited by SEPA indicates that PV electricity generation will decline 15-20% in areas where bird droppings, urban pollution or dust from farming operations are common. Individual dealers have even reported losses as high as 25% from some customers who neglected to ever clean their solar panels.

Maintenance of your solar system will eliminate these efficiency losses.

Cleaning solar panels improves yield

[M_B_S]

Read and learn:


Book tip: Bob Johnstone

Switching to Solar: What We Can Learn from Germany's Success in Harnessing Clean Energy, 2011

http://www.amazon.com/Switching-Solar-G ... 1616142227


"We know that the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century. We invented solar technology, but we've fallen behind countries like Germany. It is time for America to lead again." --President Barack Obama, February 24, 2009

This is an inspiring look at how new 'alternative energy' policies are leading the way in the fight against the global energy crisis.

The looming threat of global warming may be the greatest challenge of the present generation. Confronted by the potential of such a massive worldwide calamity, the average citizen often wonders what he or she can do.

In this inspiring and optimistic story of a green revolution in the making, veteran science and technology journalist Bob Johnstone shows how the unrelenting efforts of a small band of grassroots activists have discovered ways to make solar a practical retail energy solution. The crucial driver for the adoption of solar energy has not been technology but policy. Focusing on initiatives in Germany, he describes the use of the "feed-in tariff" as the most successful policy mechanism yet invented to spur on widespread deployment of solar energy.

Turning to California, Johnstone reviews the efforts of policy wonks to create new schemes to make solar affordable at the municipal level. Pioneers in both tree-hugging Berkeley and golf-playing Palm Desert have united i[/i]
****************************

M_B_S

has a 3,24 kWp solar energy power station on his roof since 1998

30000 kWh electricity was >harvested< 50% of our consumption in this time

What are YOU waiting for Americans?

The sun shines every day

[no_wuckin_ferries_mate]

30000 kWh electricity was >harvested< 50% of our consumption in this time

I am your poor neighbour who can't afford neither a house nor PV panels.

Your numbers mean that I have not only struggled to feed my family but also paid around $1000 to you or other rich home-owners.

Enjoy your PV but don't take my money to do so.

[Serial_Worrier]

Yup the wind/solar/tidal/geo/hydro fairy will not provide baseload as Germany is figuring out.

[M_B_S]

30000 kWh electricity was >harvested< 50% of our consumption in this time

I am your poor neighbour who can't afford neither a house nor PV panels.

Your numbers mean that I have not only struggled to feed my family but also paid around $1000 to you or other rich home-owners.

Enjoy your PV but don't take my money to do so.

What a stupid argument you pay your bill for big energy corporations not for me.

When you dont want to pay for energy to anybody then cut off your grid or build your own power station.

I harvest my own energy and sell the overshoot to the allmende grid.

The alternative is to defeat private ownership and make the energy sector public.

You have the choice.....

M_B_S

[no_wuckin_ferries_mate]

What a stupid argument you pay your bill for big energy corporations not for me.

Well, right now I am spending a few months in your beautiful country, and I am sure to understand how the feed-in works here.

If you call that a stupid argument you are either to stupid to understand the flow of money, or you consider your audience to stupid to understand, so you can take them for a ride.

If one kilowatthour costs 20 cents plus 3 cents surcharge to pay for PV then everybody has to pay those 3 cents. Rich men, poor men alike.

Those 3 cents do not go to big energy corporations but are paid out to PV owners for PV feed-in electricity. Those receiving the money are in general not poor men but rich men.

As is the case in all areas the money flow is from the poor to the rich. PV feed-in tariffs are just another way of making the rich richer by pressing the money out of the poor.

If you imagine for a moment ALL people had PV and would participate you would see that the whole subsidy system would crash immediately. It works only as long as there are the ones that are forced to pay and the others who get the money.

[cephalotus]

If one kilowatthour costs 20 cents plus 3 cents surcharge to pay for PV then everybody has to pay those 3 cents. Rich men, poor men alike.

Only those that consume electricity have to pay. It is 3,6 €ct/kWh (+VAT) for ALL renewable energies, not just PV. PV is around 1,5-2€ct/kWh

On the other hand the cost for electricity on the market is sinking because of merit order effects. This is around 0,8ct/kwh for alle renewable energies. You do not see this number on you electricity bills.

So: If you consume electricity from the grid you have to pay for the FIT. That's currently 3,6 €ct/kwh and 0,05 €ct/kwh for the big industries. On the other hand there is a cost sinking merit order effect of around 0,8 €ct/kWh, but you can't see this on you bill.

So if you consume 2000 kWh/a you pay around 72€/a for the renewable energies (+VAT)

In compariosn: If you have an old fridge that consumes 800kWh/a instead of 200kWh/a you pay 600kWh * 25 €ct/kWh = 150€/kWh for this old fridge wasting energy. And many people don't have a problem with paying for this.

As is the case in all areas the money flow is from the poor to the rich. PV feed-in tariffs are just another way of making the rich richer by pressing the money out of the poor.

The money is flowing from those that consume electricity to those that make electricity. Nothing wrong with that in my opinion. If electricity is to expensive, just use less of it.
The very poor get their money from the government and if electriicty prices raise also their check will raise.

If you imagine for a moment ALL people had PV and would participate you would see that the whole subsidy system would crash immediately. It works only as long as there are the ones that are forced to pay and the others who get the money.

[/quote]

It's already changing. The big money was needed to let the technology grow and become mature, now PV is cheaper than electricity from the grid, some years ago PV + systems costs will be cheaper than grid electricty + system costs.

Btw, Saudi Arabia plans to build more than 40GW of solar power plants (PV + ST) until 2032:

http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazi ... -2032.html

[cephalotus]

Yup the wind/solar/tidal/geo/hydro fairy will not provide baseload as Germany is figuring out.

We are now building the storage capacities.

New pump storage capacity, the first adiabatic pressure air storgae system, several grid conected battery systems, hydrogen and syntehtic mathane systems...

Will take some years until those have a significant impact, but we will be able to offer the technology.

Now our problem is not to little energy or not enough baseload, but sometimes to much electricity that can not be transported far enough.

If you belive that renewable can (technicaly) not provide baseload you are 10 years behind current technology development.

It will be more expensive than coal or natural gas.

In the US you now have ultra cheap natural gas, so nothing can compete to new gas power plants in your grid, not even coal and nuclear does not even come close.
But this will most likely not last forever. But if you want cheap electricity you have the option for now.

[cephalotus]

Peak solar power production in Germany has now crossed the 20 Gigawatt line.

(Germany consumes between 40GW and 80GW on electricity)

[M_B_S]

http://energymbeckmann.wordpress.com/20 ... roduction/

Yesterday the total production of all solar cells throughout the country reached the huge number of 22.000 MW.

Germany’s solar power cells on the roofs and in the plants produced as much as 20 nuclear power plants! The Sunny weather and the record in Solar installations made this achievement possible.
************

Champion du Monde!

Allemagne

M_B_S

[cephalotus]

For next Monday (which is a holiday n Germany) 100% renewables from solar+wind is expected for a few hours for the first time since many, many years (before the age of coal power plants).

Will be interesting to watch how many nuclear and lignite power plants will be shut down and to watch the price for electricity on the EEX on Monday.

Will be an interesting experiment.

link: http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article10 ... unden.html (only available in German)

Watch the charts on next monday: http://www.transparency.eex.com/en/

[Serial_Worrier]

For next Monday (which is a holiday n Germany) 100% renewables from solar+wind is expected for a few hours for the first time since many, many years (before the age of coal power plants).

Will be interesting to watch how many nuclear and lignite power plants will be shut down and to watch the price for electricity on the EEX on Monday.

Will be an interesting experiment.

link: http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article10 ... unden.html (only available in German)

Watch the charts on next monday: http://www.transparency.eex.com/en/

So basically the Germans have given in completely to the Greens. What is it in the water there that makes them go form one extreme(Nazism) to another(Greenism)?

[cephalotus]

In-Depth: Germany’s 22 GW Solar Energy Record:

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/05/31/in- ... gy-record/

"...During the first week of May, solar energy produced about 780 GWh of electric power; and, at the end of the month, during the record-breaking week, it amounted to 1,096 GWh or 1.1 TWh. Those were enough GWhs to meet almost 12% of the total power needs in Germany that week!..."

[dsula]

For next Monday (which is a holiday n Germany) 100% renewables from solar+wind is expected for a few hours for the first time since many, many years (before the age of coal power plants).

Will be interesting to watch how many nuclear and lignite power plants will be shut down and to watch the price for electricity on the EEX on Monday.

Will be an interesting experiment.

link: http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article10 ... unden.html (only available in German)

Watch the charts on next monday: http://www.transparency.eex.com/en/

So basically the Germans have given in completely to the Greens. What is it in the water there that makes them go form one extreme(Nazism) to another(Greenism)?

Are you a jew? Only jews bring up nazism each time they don't have anything sensible to say anymore. Very tiring.