kublikhan wrote:Cephalotus, I think you are still misunderstanding what levelized costs are. Our numbers are not different because US installers are grosely overcharging. They are different because you are trying to do an apples to oranges comparison. Also, I think you are continuing to downplay operating and maintenance costs(O&M). The costs are real. Perhaps this may explain these points better than I:
I know the calculations for O&M costs that the finacing banks do use. Mostly that between 1% and 2% per year of the invest cost.
This is about future prices on PV powert plants: http://www.wattner.de/fileadmin/downloa ... 202017.pdf
You can see LCOE at around 10€ct/kWh for a 10% interest rate in 2016 in Germany. (p. 24ff)
(at 2% interest rate = inflation the price would be as low as 3 €ct/kWh!)
They make their calculations with OpEx az 1,5%.
At system cost of 840 €/kWp (in 2016) this translates to anual OpEx costs of 13€/kWp or 13€/980kWh = 1,3 €ct/kWh at 980kWh/kWp in cloudy Germany.
The economic impact of the capacity factor is substantial.
This is why PV costs should be LOWER in the US than in Germany, but is seems to be vice versa.
Figure 3 illustrates a range of identical LCOE values, expressed in $/kWh, for a given PV power plant system price as expressed in $/Wp and the associated capacity factor. As the capacity factor declines, the required installed system price must also substantially decline to maintain system economics. For example, a $2.50/Wp system with a 24 percent capacity factor (such as with a fixed tilt configuration) delivers the same LCOE as a $3.50/Wp system with a 34 percent capacity factor (such as with a tracker).
System costs for fixed mounted PV power plants are around (and sometimes even lower) than 1,50US$/Wp in Germany NOW.
If you pay 2,50$/Wp maybe you also pay 3-5 times higer prices for maintanance.
For each kilowatt hour of solar power generated, between one and ten euro cents fall to the costs incurred during the 20-25 year operation of a plant. Currently, investors can expect to pay around 10,000 to 14,000 euro for operation and maintenance on top of costs for the technical system.
In Gemany those costs are around 15€/kWp now, thats 300€/kWp in 20 years.
If you pay 10.000€/kWp for operation and maintenance over 20 years you ar doing something VERY wrong.
PV plants in the megawatt range also require regular checks by staff.
1 engineer is enough for 100MW. At 100.000€ salery this translates to 1€/kWp per year.
regular visual checks, on-site thermal imaging, remote monitoring of strings and inverters as well as the evaluation and storage of data are indispensible.
You have extern companies which are specialised to do this. Output quality of each string is monitored by automatic systems.
operation and maintenance costs account for between 3 and 5% of the solar yield.
At 1000kWh/kWp and 13€ct/kWh solar yield this would be 4€-6€/kWp for 1 year.
Some lines above you are talking about 10.000€-14.000€/kWp over 20 years?
If well planned and performed, they can help increase yields by up to 15%.
How do you improve solar yield by 15%? Please explain. If something is broken autoamtic monitoring system,s will recognice this and you will have to fiy it. Cleaing would improve yield typically by less than 1-2% and only for a few days, this is way it isn't done regularely.
The only thing which you have to take care for are growing plants but you can also use robotic movers for that or you take that into account when choseing rack heights and underground plants.
Producing electrical energy from sunlight is almost completely wear- and maintenance- free. However, continuous monitoring of the solar power plant is sensible, not only to prevent loss of yield, but also to operate the system reliably over the entire life-cycle. The long operating times necessitate professional operations management, in which BELECTRIC is responsible for all technical tasks. The real-time monitoring system facilitates reliable remote monitoring of the photovoltaic plant and allows access to the yield data. State-of-the-art cleaning robots guarantee lasting and efficient operation of the photovoltaic modules in all regions.
I know the guys from belectric quite well. They use automatic systems. As I said one enegineer is enouh for 100MW and I would guess that with larger plants one engineer would be ok for 500MW.
For maintance you need extern companies that can do this the most efficient way.
Regular on site checks, thermal imaging, monitoring equipment, state of the art robots, this stuff is not cheap. I hope this makes it clear that a megawatt PV plant requires quite a bit more maintenance than those panels on your roof.
Monitoring equipment is very cheap. Most of it is already included in the inverters and included in investment costs. The rest is provide by companie that are specialised on that.
LCOE of PV power plants in Germany will be lower than 10€ct/kWh by 2016.
If LCOE of PV power plants in the US will be at 21USct/kWh by 2016 this is one reason why we have more solar power in Germany than in the US. At the same cost efficiency LCOE for PV power plants should not be higher than 10USct/kWh in 2016.
I estimate that the Chinese will be able to produce electricity from their PV power plants at less than 5USct/kWh in 2016! (transmission lines from the deserts to the big cities / industry centres not included)
The Chinese know how to make things cost efficient.