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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

It's the End of the World as We Know it

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 10 Feb 2015, 17:59:07

DesuMaiden wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:Just how soon the collapse happens is the basic question. Most guesses seem to be in the 2020-2030 range.

But economic recession is destroying demand for fuel and energy prices for both vehicle fuel and space heating are still dropping, postponing and prolonging the collapse. Once we enter a full-grown depression, we may have fuel for a few decades more, simply because of demand destruction.

That sounds reasonable. I doubt industrial civilization will last for much longer. It is time to start building life boats now. We can't waste anymore time.

I would say the opposite, "Industrial civilization" will continue for a very long time, don't forget that the industrial revolution was initially wind & water powered. With alternative energy sources and vastly improved efficiencies and a reduction in the manufacturing of "consumer crap!" there's no reason why it won't continue for far longer than your life expectancy. Peak oil is really only about the rise and decline of one of the principal fuels used in modern society, it's demise will change the way we live in the future, for some parts of the world it may be catastrophic, but for many others it will just be a change of direction. Technology has made every watt of electrical energy do so much more than in previous years, the biggest challenge we face is to use it wisely, as opposed to getting additional stuff to use the "spare" power.

In the short term I see the biggest dangers coming from the economic fallout from the "end of perpetual growth" that the current financial system is dependent on, there may be some big changes in that sector soon. Most likely just after the "baby boomers " have retired and they discover that the pension pots are empty!

Longer term, agriculture in established areas may have to contend with soil depletion and that will cause serious problems for future generations, in some places at may already be happening.

Lastly remember, as has already been posted "life is for living!"
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Wed 11 Feb 2015, 00:18:47

dolanbaker wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:Just how soon the collapse happens is the basic question. Most guesses seem to be in the 2020-2030 range.

But economic recession is destroying demand for fuel and energy prices for both vehicle fuel and space heating are still dropping, postponing and prolonging the collapse. Once we enter a full-grown depression, we may have fuel for a few decades more, simply because of demand destruction.

That sounds reasonable. I doubt industrial civilization will last for much longer. It is time to start building life boats now. We can't waste anymore time.

I would say the opposite, "Industrial civilization" will continue for a very long time, don't forget that the industrial revolution was initially wind & water powered. With alternative energy sources and vastly improved efficiencies and a reduction in the manufacturing of "consumer crap!" there's no reason why it won't continue for far longer than your life expectancy. Peak oil is really only about the rise and decline of one of the principal fuels used in modern society, it's demise will change the way we live in the future, for some parts of the world it may be catastrophic, but for many others it will just be a change of direction. Technology has made every watt of electrical energy do so much more than in previous years, the biggest challenge we face is to use it wisely, as opposed to getting additional stuff to use the "spare" power.

In the short term I see the biggest dangers coming from the economic fallout from the "end of perpetual growth" that the current financial system is dependent on, there may be some big changes in that sector soon. Most likely just after the "baby boomers " have retired and they discover that the pension pots are empty!

Longer term, agriculture in established areas may have to contend with soil depletion and that will cause serious problems for future generations, in some places at may already be happening.

Lastly remember, as has already been posted "life is for living!"

Industrial civilization is founded upon oil and other fossil fuels. Since fossil fuels are going into decline over the next couple of decades, it is only axiomatic that industrial civilization will also go into decline over the next couple of decades.

Remember this. Professor David Goodstein once said "I don't believe we can sustain our current population--much less the population in 20 to 30 years--without the use of petrochemicals". He is serious, and if you think about it, he is correct. The only reason we can support and feed our current population is because of oil-powered machinery and natural-gas based fertilizers used in modern agriculture.

Modern agriculture is basically the use of land to convert petroleum into food. The reason the population exploded during the 20th and 21st century was because of fossil fuels being used to drastically increase the food supply. And by drastically increasing the food supply by 3 to 4 times, the population simply exploded and grew very rapidly. But if take the fossil fuels away, the food supply will decrease. And with a diminishing food supply, the population will necessarily have to diminish as well. I will go as far as saying the population will rapidly diminish or collapse to under 2 billion people the moment fossil fuels become too scarce and cause food production to collapse.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby davep » Wed 11 Feb 2015, 03:37:46

DesuMaiden wrote:Industrial civilization is founded upon oil and other fossil fuels. Since fossil fuels are going into decline over the next couple of decades, it is only axiomatic that industrial civilization will also go into decline over the next couple of decades.

Remember this. Professor David Goodstein once said "I don't believe we can sustain our current population--much less the population in 20 to 30 years--without the use of petrochemicals". He is serious, and if you think about it, he is correct. The only reason we can support and feed our current population is because of oil-powered machinery and natural-gas based fertilizers used in modern agriculture.

Modern agriculture is basically the use of land to convert petroleum into food. The reason the population exploded during the 20th and 21st century was because of fossil fuels being used to drastically increase the food supply. And by drastically increasing the food supply by 3 to 4 times, the population simply exploded and grew very rapidly. But if take the fossil fuels away, the food supply will decrease. And with a diminishing food supply, the population will necessarily have to diminish as well. I will go as far as saying the population will rapidly diminish or collapse to under 2 billion people the moment fossil fuels become too scarce and cause food production to collapse.


You're teaching your Grandmother to suck eggs. We have all been here a lot longer than you and none of that is news to us. Whether population actually plummets depends on what we each do. The question becomes what you individually are prepared to do about it. For example, some of us have bought homesteads and lots of books on forest gardening, permaculture et cetera, and actually found out what it's like to rear and butcher animals and grow crops. Eventually you're going to have to get over your "rabbit in the headlights" recognition and do something. There is time. We all felt the same a decade ago.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Wed 11 Feb 2015, 08:07:27

I read limits to growth when I was 11 years old - bought it at and old book store for the money I earned bringing out the morning newspaper. I think it made other people think I was a cynical person with crazy ideas. - For example I said that private carownership should be illegal since it will devastate our earth and all women should be allowed a max of 2 children before getting sterilized. - But i have never been depressed or sad because of this. I feel human"kind" deserves this - and somehow I feel outside humankind - Of course, I am annoyed that I will have to pay the same penalty as everybody else who were dumb as sh!t - but life is not fair and my life has been better than most. Also I am thankful that i will see the peak of human civilisation as well as live a part of it on the upside and part of it at the downside. Interesting times - INDEED.

I just hope I can hide and kill well enough when things get really dicey - since that is all that will matter if the best case scenario comes along - i.e. reduction to 500mil.ww.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Wed 11 Feb 2015, 12:29:19

davep wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:Industrial civilization is founded upon oil and other fossil fuels. Since fossil fuels are going into decline over the next couple of decades, it is only axiomatic that industrial civilization will also go into decline over the next couple of decades.

Remember this. Professor David Goodstein once said "I don't believe we can sustain our current population--much less the population in 20 to 30 years--without the use of petrochemicals". He is serious, and if you think about it, he is correct. The only reason we can support and feed our current population is because of oil-powered machinery and natural-gas based fertilizers used in modern agriculture.

Modern agriculture is basically the use of land to convert petroleum into food. The reason the population exploded during the 20th and 21st century was because of fossil fuels being used to drastically increase the food supply. And by drastically increasing the food supply by 3 to 4 times, the population simply exploded and grew very rapidly. But if take the fossil fuels away, the food supply will decrease. And with a diminishing food supply, the population will necessarily have to diminish as well. I will go as far as saying the population will rapidly diminish or collapse to under 2 billion people the moment fossil fuels become too scarce and cause food production to collapse.


You're teaching your Grandmother to suck eggs. We have all been here a lot longer than you and none of that is news to us. Whether population actually plummets depends on what we each do. The question becomes what you individually are prepared to do about it. For example, some of us have bought homesteads and lots of books on forest gardening, permaculture et cetera, and actually found out what it's like to rear and butcher animals and grow crops. Eventually you're going to have to get over your "rabbit in the headlights" recognition and do something. There is time. We all felt the same a decade ago.

Population will plummet. There is nothing we can do to prevent the population from crashing. All populations that go into overshoot experience a crash or die off. The only thing you can do right now is build life boats, so that a small percentage of the current population survives the crash or die off. The population will crash to below 2 billion. Some say it might crash down to under 500 million people. Either way, the overwhelming majority of humans on this planet will cease to exist when fossil fuels become too scarce.

You can save yourself, your family and some people in the community around you. And that's it. It is unrealistic to save everyone or even the majority of the human race. There is simply too many people on this planet, and most of the people on this planet will perish when fossil fuels become too scarce. Yes, learning how to farm without petrochemicals is the key to survival in this catastrophe. It is the only way you can survive. Learning how to live without fossil fuels is key to surviving this catastrophe. Ironically, using a computer to post on this forum is actually dependent on fossil fuels because

a) a computer is made of plastic and therefore oil
b) the electricity used to power your computer and the Internet is probably powered by coal and natural gas, which are fossil fuels.

So yes, posting on this forum probably means you are still dependent on fossil fuels, which you must become independent from in the future. But thanks to the invention of the Internet, we can learn about peak oil, and prepare for it. If there was no internet, we wouldn't be able to know about and prepare for peak oil. So fossil fuel technology will help us survive in the future even though this fossil fuel based technology will no longer be possible in the future.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Feb 2015, 03:30:31

Population will plummet. There is nothing we can do to prevent the population from crashing. All populations that go into overshoot experience a crash or die off.


Overshoot is a variable depending on behaviour though. The phantom carrying capacity we now enjoy thanks to fossil fuels can be replaced by sustainable carrying capacity if we move to models that do not require the use of fossil fuels. This includes the use of perennials that do not need the yearly dose of ploughing, herbicides, pesticides and fertiliser. If we don't move to such practices the carrying capacity for humanity would be lower than if we did. So there are no absolutes. Whether it would be enough to support our current population is open to debate, but my point is that merely parroting "overshoot" as if it were a fixed law makes little sense and in doing so you tend towards a fatalistic approach to mitigation rather than actually doing something positive.

Degraded and sterile land with diminishing topsoil obviously supports less per unit area than land where humus is improving, water retention is improved and the mycorrhizal fungi are doing their job in a complex ecosystem.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 12 Feb 2015, 09:43:55

davep wrote: The phantom carrying capacity we now enjoy thanks to fossil fuels can be replaced by sustainable carrying capacity if we move to models that do not require the use of fossil fuels. This includes the use of perennials that do not need the yearly dose of ploughing, herbicides, pesticides and fertiliser.

You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Feb 2015, 11:26:21

vtsnowedin wrote:
davep wrote: The phantom carrying capacity we now enjoy thanks to fossil fuels can be replaced by sustainable carrying capacity if we move to models that do not require the use of fossil fuels. This includes the use of perennials that do not need the yearly dose of ploughing, herbicides, pesticides and fertiliser.

You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.


Calories per acre for mature walnuts is enormous (due in part to the high lipid content).

But it's not as simple as that. We're currently converting the vast majority of corn into ethanol or beef. So the net bushels/acre for human consumption is way lower than production. So there is enough slack to allow a lower level of production without going all Mad Max.

And production per unit area tends to be higher in labour intensive hand-managed small farms than for large monocultures anyway.

We're not necessarily in for a massive die-off, but there will probably be a lot more people working in agriculture.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 12 Feb 2015, 12:53:34

To add to what I said earlier, consider multiple crises amplifying each other: global warming, peak oil, financial crisis, environmental damage, etc. Consider multiple effects of these crises and other factors, including the possibility that most people are not used to working in agriculture, arms sales, military forces used to control resources, security forces used to confiscate property and control local civilian populations, antibiotic resistance, overpopulation due to refugees fleeing conflict-ridden sites or for other reasons, etc.

For more factors and problems, try the other threads of this forum.

Finally, a repost:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Thu 12 Feb 2015, 13:52:30

ralfy wrote:To add to what I said earlier, consider multiple crises amplifying each other: global warming, peak oil, financial crisis, environmental damage, etc. Consider multiple effects of these crises and other factors, including the possibility that most people are not used to working in agriculture, arms sales, military forces used to control resources, security forces used to confiscate property and control local civilian populations, antibiotic resistance, overpopulation due to refugees fleeing conflict-ridden sites or for other reasons, etc.

For more factors and problems, try the other threads of this forum.

Finally, a repost:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

We are facing a peak everything crisis. The Earth only has a finite carrying capacity. The Earth can't support infinite growth in consumption and population. We are running out of the following: arable land, top soil, phosphorus, oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, various metal ores, fish, wood, fresh water and plenty of other natural resources. And most of these natural resources are irreplaceable. The fallacy of modern economics is the belief that when one resource runs low, we can always find a substitute. But some resources are irreplaceable. We need to responsibly use our resources.

I never said there will be no survivors. There will be survivors. But the overwhelming majority of people will perish over the next couple of decades of this century. Like Michael Ruppert once said, "All of these people exist on this planet only because of oil. That's it. So it is axiomatic if you take the oil away, the population must also go away". So yes, a die off is inevitable. There is no way can support our current population--much less the population in 20 to 30 years--without the use of petrochemicals, as Professor David Goodstein once said.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby Timo » Thu 12 Feb 2015, 15:42:31

ralfy wrote:To add to what I said earlier, consider multiple crises amplifying each other: global warming, peak oil, financial crisis, environmental damage, etc. Consider multiple effects of these crises and other factors, including the possibility that most people are not used to working in agriculture, arms sales, military forces used to control resources, security forces used to confiscate property and control local civilian populations, antibiotic resistance, overpopulation due to refugees fleeing conflict-ridden sites or for other reasons, etc.

For more factors and problems, try the other threads of this forum.

Finally, a repost:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

Ralfy, on this post, i do tend to agree with you. There is not single absolute that will cause a mass die-off. If anything, if there is, indeed, a mass die-off, it will be from a combination of factors, and not be caused by any one item in isolation. Even AGW isn't a deal killer for humanity. Survival in the new era might not be enjoyable or comfortable, but that survival is possible on a large scale if we adapt quickly enough to our new reality.

A pet peeve, though, is the word "collapse" in reference to civilization. Collapse implies a singular event whereby civilization implodes very quickly. Time will tell, but i don't think our collective demise will be very quick. If/when that collapse is fully realized, i think it will be over two or three lifetimes before we hit the bottom. That time period, though, will not be pretty. But, who knows?! Like i said, time will tell. I left my time machine in a different century, and i can't remember if i left it in the future, or the past.

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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby careinke » Wed 18 Feb 2015, 03:56:46

vtsnowedin wrote:
davep wrote: The phantom carrying capacity we now enjoy thanks to fossil fuels can be replaced by sustainable carrying capacity if we move to models that do not require the use of fossil fuels. This includes the use of perennials that do not need the yearly dose of ploughing, herbicides, pesticides and fertiliser.

You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.


Brazil nuts.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 19 Feb 2015, 21:25:32

careinke wrote: You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.


Brazil nuts.[/quote]
Good luck growing them in the US corn belt.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 19 Feb 2015, 21:50:34

vtsnowedin wrote: You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.


careinke wrote:Brazil nuts.

vtsnowedin wrote: Good luck growing them in the US corn belt.


Brazil nut trees are pretty amazing. But, yeah they don't grow but in fairly specific environments in a limited area. I think they are not farmed much if at all (still harvested from the wild). And, you shouldn't eat too many all the time or you get a build up of I think Selenium.

Nice little video on the tree
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby careinke » Fri 20 Feb 2015, 13:37:34

vtsnowedin wrote:
careinke wrote: You have to consider the yield in calories per acre. What perennial can come close to matching corn at 150 bu/acre and 125,000 calories per bushel.


Brazil nuts.

Good luck growing them in the US corn belt.[/quote]

You didn't add that restriction in your question. :)
OK, Chestnuts. You could start by planting the ditch lines and still produce corn at the same time (until you can't).
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sat 21 Feb 2015, 21:04:15

Pecans aren't bad either.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 27 Feb 2015, 20:25:43

I believe the die-off is inevitable. The only thing you can do is be a survivor from this die off. Yes, over 90% of humanity is going to perish. But you can be a survivor amongst the under 10% of the population that survives.
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 27 Feb 2015, 20:30:44

PrestonSturges wrote:Pecans aren't bad either.

If your a squirrel!
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 27 Feb 2015, 21:10:56

PrestonSturges wrote:Pecans aren't bad either.

What's so good about pecans?
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Re: Why a catastrophic die off is inevitable. Read this book

Unread postby careinke » Sun 01 Mar 2015, 23:43:47

DesuMaiden wrote:
PrestonSturges wrote:Pecans aren't bad either.

What's so good about pecans?


I love pecans, especially in a pie.
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