[ralfy]

The issue is not just peak oil but that plus global warming, environmental damage, etc.

[KaiserJeep]

Peak Oil and all the other things you mention are symptoms of overpopulation. The population overshoot is the result of the human race doing what comes natural. Allow me to suggest that AGW, generic climate change, ecological damage, and all the various symptoms of too many people on one small planet, are all part of "Mother Earth's Plan" for her brightest children.

After all, there is nothing unnatural about humankind - just the natural result of hominid evolution.

Shocking as the thought may be, the Industrial Age was also part of Nature's plan.

[DesuMaiden]

Nobody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

[Hawkcreek]

Happy Birthday, DesuM.
I hope you will have many more.

Looks like the die-off has already started in developed nations. Many of them have declining populations. Even the US population would be going down without immigration.
You need to start reading John Michael Greer's essays.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
He describes the slooow, but jerky decline of our civilization in a very believable way. Probably won't happen overnight, and you will probably get to see a lot more birthdays. May not have modern conveniences for some of them, but life may be more fun without all the things that speed it up.

[Tanada]

Nobody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

Happy Birthday! At your age in your country my advice would be pretty simple. Move north to a low population town far from a large population city. You don't need to go out into the Tundra but there are lots of small towns in low population area's that will do much better in your die-off scenario than anything in a large population area.

[Observerbrb]

Nobody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

I remember reading about this PO stuff for first time more than 10 years ago. In 2004, Oil doomers were predicating imminent and massive collapse. You could have done what some of them did: Worrying about an imminent collapse for more than 10 years, while the rest of people just were doing fine and enjoying their lives. In that case, you would have lived 10 years of misery, whereas the others would have lived 10 years of LIFE.

What would you had achieved? Nothing, except wasting your time. If you' re are really worried about this, you should invest your time studying Renewable energy systems, aquaponics, low-energy systems... and become a good professional in these topics. This is not to say that everything is fine and we will be witnessing unendless joy for the coming years. No, I feel that we are on the edge of a historical transformation, that could be very difficult. Humans and society are extremely resilient, so I would expect that we learnt from our past mistakes to build a better future. In the meantime, you can do something for you and try to live a better life, helping others, caring for the environment, learning about solar PV systems, etc.

Best regards,

[Pops]

Nobody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

Statistically you only have a 50/50 chance of living past your 79th birthday, so there is that.

"Proving" future events is kinda hard, but gut feeling requires no proof. If you have a case of the industrial heebie-jeebies, get yourself out.

Really there is no justification needed.

Happy birthday.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

I remember reading about this PO stuff for first time more than 10 years ago. In 2004, Oil doomers were predicating imminent and massive collapse. You could have done what some of them did: Worrying about an imminent collapse for more than 10 years, while the rest of people just were doing fine and enjoying their lives. In that case, you would have lived 10 years of misery, whereas the others would have lived 10 years of LIFE.

I was introduced around the same time at the age of 19. I remember discovering Savinar's site and suffering from severe anxiety for several months. Many of my decisions over the next few years were influenced by the prospect of things getting very ugly before the end of the decade. I recall some of the more extreme forum members (Nevada Ghosts, anyone?) predicting that we would be resorting to cannibalism in major cities by this time. They weren't exactly laughed off either.

As you said, I made a lot of decisions based on fear. Some of them worked out. I'm still employed, relatively debt-free, get free education, and am not living with my parents. That may not seem like a big deal, but it is increasingly becoming rare for young people. However, I can't help but think of the things I missed out on because of my fearful motivations. Some of those things I might never experience now that I'm supporting a family.

I should add that I don't see unlimited progress and economic growth in the future. I won't pretend to know exactly how and when things will unfold, but I do at the very least think life will continue to be worth living.

Desu, if you've gathered all this data and are convinced of the outcome, why not focus on a blog and forum of your own? You can invite all the people who think the end is just around the corner and exchange ideas with them. That's what Savinar did.

[DesuMaiden]

Nobody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

Happy Birthday! At your age in your country my advice would be pretty simple. Move north to a low population town far from a large population city. You don't need to go out into the Tundra but there are lots of small towns in low population area's that will do much better in your die-off scenario than anything in a large population area.

I currently live in a city called Kitchener, which has a population of around 200,000 people. I don't think a large city like that will be a very nice place to live because there will not be enough arable land in a large city to grow enough food to feed the entire populace. I think moving to a small town anywhere is a much better idea because a small town might have much more arable land. The key thing we need to focus on is finding a place with plenty of arable land because we need to locally produce our food in the future in order to survive the collapse of industrial civilization (CoIC). To survive the CoIC, we need avoid big cities like New York, Chicago, Miami, and Atlanta because there isn't enough arable in big cities. I believe only people living in small towns will survive. The big city dwellers will mostly die from starvation, thirst and other symptoms of the CoIC.

Big cities will become hell-holes in the near future. Only people living in small towns with plenty of arable land have any hope of surviving. Since most people live in big cities nowadays, they are screwed. Only people living in rural areas, with plenty of arable land, have any chance of surviving the CoIC. This is why the population of the earth will likely be reduced from 7.3 billion people back down to under 500 million people.

Assuming we don't have a thermonuclear war that destroys all of humanity, there will be small pockets of survivors from the CoIC. These people will reform whatever new civilized life may be possible in another couple of hundred years in the future. We might be able to achieve another medieval-level civilization in the future if we can recycle the metal ores left over by industrial civilization.

[Subjectivist]

Nobody has been able to prove why this die off will not happen. I'm 100% certain this die off will happen. And just turned 25 today. It is entirely possible I will not live past my 40th birthday unless I can take drastic actions to prepare for peak oil.

Happy Birthday! At your age in your country my advice would be pretty simple. Move north to a low population town far from a large population city. You don't need to go out into the Tundra but there are lots of small towns in low population area's that will do much better in your die-off scenario than anything in a large population area.

Seems sage, the more I know about Canada and especially the Maritime Provinces. The weather is rather benign but unpleasant. Seems to be a lot of cold, rain, fog, and wind.

Freezing rain is common in Newfoundland where it is known as "silver thaw".[34] Freezing drizzle or freezing rain occurs on average of 150 hours each winter, most commonly in March. One such storm struck St. John's on April 11, 1984 and lasted three days. Ice almost 15 centimeters (5.9 in) thick disrupted electrical power to 200,000 people on the Avalon Peninsula for days.[34]

The northern British Columbian coast and islands have wet but relatively warm weather due to the Japanese Current that flow near off shore. Seems like it could be a pretty sustainable place, with wild fish and northern crops and maybe a few sheep.

[Timo]

Tanada, good advice on moving north to a small population center. For myself, however, i'm going the opposite direction and am planning on moving south, but also to a small population center. The underlying rationale is the same.

Observerbrb, well said. There is a very big difference between being a doomer/prepper, and putting your money/life/time where your mouth is and taking responsible actions to offset and even prevent your fears from becoming reality. Everyone has a role to play in this world. If everyone takes responsible, productive actions to safeguard our collective future, there is no need for doomer panic to ever set in. Self-isolation in preparation for the worst-case scenario is the equivalent of burying your head in the sand, and ignoring your own abilities to make a difference for yourself, and others, as well.

[KaiserJeep]

Just how soon the collapse happens is the basic question. Most guesses seem to be in the 2020-2030 range.

But economic recession is destroying demand for fuel and energy prices for both vehicle fuel and space heating are still dropping, postponing and prolonging the collapse. Once we enter a full-grown depression, we may have fuel for a few decades more, simply because of demand destruction.

[DesuMaiden]

Just how soon the collapse happens is the basic question. Most guesses seem to be in the 2020-2030 range.

But economic recession is destroying demand for fuel and energy prices for both vehicle fuel and space heating are still dropping, postponing and prolonging the collapse. Once we enter a full-grown depression, we may have fuel for a few decades more, simply because of demand destruction.

That sounds reasonable. I doubt industrial civilization will last for much longer. It is time to start building life boats now. We can't waste anymore time.

[Timo]

Sorry to be the lone bright spot in my optimism here, but alternatives to fossile fuels are being developed right now. As FFs decline in abundance, sure that will have an affect on industrial civilization, but as that happens, alternatives will fill the gap to maintain some resemblance of the status quo. Sure, things will be different, and it may not be as prosporous as what we have now, but that does not mean that civilization will collapse. Parts of civilization? Maybe. Totally? I don't see it. Technologies are being developed at a faster pace right now than at any other point in time in human history. If there is a void in the means of production, our capitalistic system will fill that void to maintain production of products that civilization depends on to continue. Color me simple, but as bad as things look from the bottom of the hole, our hole doesn't necessarily need to get that much deeper. In fact, i'm much more worried about AGW being the cause of the fall of civilization than the depletion of fossil fuels. Actually, the depletion of fossil fuels would probably forestall AGW to no small degree, and enhance the future of civilization, altogether. Worst case scenario would be that Elon Musk takes us all to Mars in an electric hyperloop.

[Strummer]

Collapse always starts at the peripheries, and the peripheries are already collapsing. Witness Egypt, Syria or Ukraine. However, that doesn't mean that the collapse will necessarily reach the center. The center (the industrialized western countries) have a lot of resources and power and can simply throw the periphery overboard to save their own people. Long before a die-off in the West can happen, the West can switch into an aggressive facsist colonialist mode and sacrifice the rest of the world instead of sacrificing itself. If a die-off happens, then hundreds of millions of Egyptians, Bangladeshis, Iraqis, Yemenis, etc... will die of starvation first long before a single citizen of the US or EU is even marginally affected.

[DesuMaiden]

Sorry to be the lone bright spot in my optimism here, but alternatives to fossile fuels are being developed right now. As FFs decline in abundance, sure that will have an affect on industrial civilization, but as that happens, alternatives will fill the gap to maintain some resemblance of the status quo. Sure, things will be different, and it may not be as prosporous as what we have now, but that does not mean that civilization will collapse. Parts of civilization? Maybe. Totally? I don't see it. Technologies are being developed at a faster pace right now than at any other point in time in human history. If there is a void in the means of production, our capitalistic system will fill that void to maintain production of products that civilization depends on to continue. Color me simple, but as bad as things look from the bottom of the hole, our hole doesn't necessarily need to get that much deeper. In fact, i'm much more worried about AGW being the cause of the fall of civilization than the depletion of fossil fuels. Actually, the depletion of fossil fuels would probably forestall AGW to no small degree, and enhance the future of civilization, altogether. Worst case scenario would be that Elon Musk takes us all to Mars in an electric hyperloop.

Didn't you even read this book? Let me show you the link again...

http://www.unicamp.br/fea/ortega/eco/tr ... DieOff.pdf

It tells you why the alternatives to oil will not replace oil. Let me repeat myself. There is nothing in any combination, anywhere, that can replace the edifice built by fossil fuels. This book makes this point very clear, and explains why solar, wind, hydrogen, hydro-electricity, geothermal, nuclear, and etc will not replace fossil fuels. Clearly, you have done no research to make such an ignorant claim. If you done your research, you will know that nothing in our current arsenal of alternative energies can replace oil, and it is likely we can never find anything that will replace oil.

[Timo]

I confess, i did not read the book. Therefore, i can't comment on the book, itself. My comments were reactions to other comments made here. I'm sure the book makes very strong arguments to support its conclusions. To various degrees, many or most of its arguments may actually prove correct, but as the title of this thread suggest, i do not agree that a catastrophic die-off is inevitable, regardless of what the book says. That said, i do agree that large portions of the human population will suffer tremendously in the coming years. A growing population, all dependent on limited and declining resources, clearly suggests that this will occur. However, the scope of that suffering will be relative to the size of the global population, itself. The more people you cram into a small, limited space, the more people are requisitely affected by the limitations of that space. In other words, a bus full of people that drives over a cliff will have more casualties than a bus driving over a cliff with only one passenger. The more people are born, the more people will die. Everything is relative to the whole. There are no absolutes.