It's official: New monthly world crude oil production record

[pstarr]

ATTENION BRATTICUS: Condensate has ALWAYS been included in the EIA's (and everyone else's) "crude oil" production figures. That bumpy plateau everyone here keeps talking about has ALWAYS included condensate.

Thank you, have a nice day, and please pay attention to stuff like this in the future.

Yes. But condensates have not always contributed upwards of 50% of the liquid volume as they do today. That extra energy required to convert a diffuse gaseous component into a liquid fuel is quite expensive, energetically speaking. As with all unconventionals (including, but not limited to, NGC, shale, ethanol, TDP, etc.) the net energy returned is constantly dropping . . . toward ZERO.

Such is peak.

[Plantagenet]

That wasn't my fantasy world...

Jeez. You are the person who posted it.

Lets come back to the topic, please.

The bogus chart you posted in no way changes the reality that real data on real charts shows the world has been on a bumpy production plateau since 2005.

[sparky]

.
On condensates , my understanding is that it's the fraction of the hydrocarbon gas stream which is liquid at normal temperature and pressure ?

pstarr , your diagram is good but it forget the knock out array just before the plant
those are usually a set of interconnected length of pipes
their function is to decrease the velocity of the gas coming in from the pipeline
and let the liquids and hydrates drop off ,

The pipeline is a funny world , with velocity , temperature and partial pressure
quite different from the gas plant world ,
the knock down array is where the transition is made ,
a lot of the condensates are collected there

[pstarr]

.
On condensates , my understanding is that it's the fraction of the hydrocarbon gas stream which is liquid at normal temperature and pressure ?

pstarr , your diagram is good but it forget the knock out array just before the plant
those are usually a set of interconnected length of pipes
their function is to decrease the velocity of the gas coming in from the pipeline
and let the liquids and hydrates drop off ,

The pipeline is a funny world , with velocity , temperature and partial pressure
quite different from the gas plant world ,
the knock down array is where the transition is made ,
a lot of the condensates are collected there

I stand corrected, but my point remains; that condensate is "high hanging fruit" another non-conventional that has begun to replace light sweet oil at much greater expense in energy, production and cost. This, of course, incurs serious issues: more energy is used in producing said energy, the resulting fuel cost more money, there is less of said fuel left over for productive social work and our JIT industrial system/financial ponzi scheme which depends on cheap petroleum is thus faltering. And ready to implode.

[Keith_McClary]

But ... but ... we were supposed to be down to, like, 67 million bpd by now!


LINK

The graph is attributed to Skrebowski, but here is what Skrebowski said at ASPO 2006:

Slide 41 of this PDF
You don't give the original source for the graph so we can't tell what it represents (some scenario, perhaps?).

[bratticus]

EIA Table

Crude & Condensate:
July 2008: 74,669.571 bpd
Dec. 2010: 74,795.725 bpd

But the year is still just shy of 2005:

2005: 73,712 bpd

Crude & Condensate & tap water & anything else we can think of.

Dude, if I showed you a chart of "Copper & Mercury production" with dropping copper production rates and increasing mercury production would that mean there was more copper being produced? Yet combining Crude & Condensate is supposed to be proof of more crude production. What utter nonsense.

WOO-HOO! We are producing more Oil plus Non-Oil (which doesn't have the properties of crude oil especially the energy density) combined! We have proven that you can call natural gas oil!

How to make Fool's Oil[tm]

1. take natural gas derived oil, call it "condensates" to confuse people about it only being natural gas.

2. make sure you don't report on BTUs, only on barrels because if you showed the BTUs you wouldn't be fooling anyone after all "energy density" is too complicated for fools.

3. combine it with real crude oil and report not on BTUs but on volume since it's like putting soy meat filler into meat to make it look bigger not actually be more meat. Fools love to eat it because you told them it was hamburger.

4. show them charts of Fool's Oil and how much there is now.

5. (added for fools like OilFinder2) Pay no attention to the ratio of Crude to Condensate.

[dolanbaker]

The key phrase is "barring a major economic setback", well there was and it did throw out the prediction!

[bratticus]

Poor little OilFinder2. She thought she found oil but she only found natural gas.

Tech Talk: When oil isn’t crude and gas isn’t gas, the Eagle Ford Shale play
Posted by Heading Out on December 19, 2010

Simplistically, when natural gas comes out of the reservoir it is not always what is referred to as a dry gas, but rather can often contain a number of other constituents in the fluid flow. The NGLs are normally a combination of ethane, butane, isobutene, propane and natural gasoline and are normally combined with other light hydrocarbons that condense out of the fluid flow at the surface, when pressures and temperatures fall from those in the reservoir. These additional fluids are the ones generally called condensates, as a result.

Just a bunch of lighter fluid, OilFinder2, that's all.



Keep on looking for that oil. You'll know you found it when it says "Crude" not "Condensates" on it. And don't get confused again if somebody tried to mix them together. Make sure you know how much of both is in the mix.

[OilFinder2]

I would suggest to bratticus, since she has no interest in geology or industry trends or anything like that, to google "oil window eagle ford shale" and compare it to the condensate/wet gas and dry gas windows, to find out for herself that in addition to NGL's and condensate, the Eagle Ford Shale does, in fact, produce actual oil.

Thank you, and have a nice day.

[Serial_Worrier]

It's funny that oily keeps up the smiley face as we head towards $6/gallon gas this summer. All that extra oil is going straight to Chindia.

[meemoe_uk]

>On condensates , my understanding is that it's the fraction of the hydrocarbon gas stream which is liquid at normal temperature and pressure ?
Hi Spark, I don't think that's the line drawn between oil and gas. Most oil fractions evaporate at atmospheric pressure and temperature.
The peakers on this site would certainly like that as the definition post 2005 supply though.
It's just like the Environment forum here. No matter the magnitude of lunacy, the mods never restrain the peakers. As of April 2011, 'Condensate Oil is now Gas' - braticus . Wouldn't this nonsense get a ban at the oildrum? Or is this the official stance of PO.com endorsed by all the mods and admin? It's a point of interest for me how far peakers can push it.
Can any peaker beat braticus? - here's one for you - petrol is now gas, because american slang for petrol is 'gas'. Any peaker eager to take up that position?

>It's funny that oily keeps up the smiley face as we head towards $6/gallon gas this summer.
That's because $6 gallon gas is extremely cheap, both in real terms and relative to other countries. Here in the UK we're on $10.11/gallon right now, no problem. Roads are still busling with 4x4s, saloons, and SUVs. And there's places in Europe where the cost is higher.
I seem to remember back in 2005 peakers saying $3/gallon would smash the economy. Shouldn't the population of europe be in a state of famime by now with >$10/gal fuel?
Oh and by the way, this thread is not sposed to be concerned with oil price. Just the quantity.

>As with all unconventionals (including, but not limited to, NGC, shale, ethanol, TDP, etc.) the net energy returned is constantly dropping . . . toward ZERO. Such is peak.
Er, no that's at the far right end of the hubbert curve, not the peak. At peak the EROEI of oil will still be >50. And it ain't zero at the end, it's 1. Basic doomer rhetoric.
We have barely started to tap shale energy yet. Peak shale might be 1000 years away.

[sparky]

.
@ Meemo ... You are totally right ,Thanks for the correction
the lease condensates are the liquid fraction of the gas
......at the normal operating pressure and temperature of the gas plant ,
Not normal atmospheric 20Dg C

I plea brain damage as an excuse

[bratticus]

blah-blah bratticus do this, do that, hop to it.

Don't ever tell me what to do.

[OilFinder2]

Nice chart.

[kildred590]

[quoteOn condensates , my understanding is that it's the fraction of the hydrocarbon gas stream which is liquid at normal temperature and pressure ?
Hi Spark, I don't think that's the line drawn between oil and gas. Most oil fractions evaporate at atmospheric pressure and temperature.
The peakers on this site would certainly like that as the definition post 2005 supply though.
][/quote]

If it's gas, then it's not a liquid. Why is that so difficult to understand ?
Oil and condensate means oil (liquid) and condensed gas (also liquid).

"Most oil fractions evaporate at atmospheric pressure and temperature." What ?
You'll find most of the output of an OIL well is OIL !

Roads are still busling with 4x4s, saloons, and SUVs

How many F-150s in the UK ? 500 ?

I seem to remember back in 2005 peakers saying $3/gallon would smash the economy.

And it did.

Oh and by the way, this thread is not sposed to be concerned with oil price. Just the quantity.

There are time lags between production and use. Then there's the effect that price and supply has on demand (and consequently depletion and stock levels). Companies manipulate stock levels through re-assignation to produce a better looking financial statement (eg Shell), not to mention what national governments do.
Price is one way to ascertain the difference between supply and demand. Not a perfect way, but a tool nevertheless.

[dolanbaker]

Nice chart.

I think that that chart simply proves that when the price rises, oil producers will produce more.
But it also proves that we are most definitly past "peak cheap oil" and even with the extra (four months ago) production there still wasn't sufficient supply to "flood" the market and depress prices.

And all this is before Libya's problems.

[OilFinder2]

This, unfortunately, includes NGL's, but at least it excludes biofuels, so we get a general idea of C&C, more or less.

BP Statistical Review 2011

Global oil production increased by 1.8 million b/d in 2010 or 2.2%

In 2010, world oil production grew by 1.8 Mb/d and surpassed the level reached in 2008. Growth was the largest since 2004 and was divided evenly between OPEC and non-OPEC. The largest increases in OPEC were in Nigeria (+340,000 b/d) and Qatar (+220,000 b/d). Non-OPEC output increased by 0.9 Mb/d, the highest since 2002, and was led by China (+271 Kb/d) - which recorded its largest increase ever-, the US (+242 Kb/d), and Russia (+236 Kb/d).

Methodology
Oil production data includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids - the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately). It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and coal derivatives.

[...]

[Lore]

This, unfortunately, includes NGL's, but at least it excludes biofuels, so we get a general idea of C&C, more or less.

BP Statistical Review 2011

Global oil production increased by 1.8 million b/d in 2010 or 2.2%

In 2010, world oil production grew by 1.8 Mb/d and surpassed the level reached in 2008. Growth was the largest since 2004 and was divided evenly between OPEC and non-OPEC. The largest increases in OPEC were in Nigeria (+340,000 b/d) and Qatar (+220,000 b/d). Non-OPEC output increased by 0.9 Mb/d, the highest since 2002, and was led by China (+271 Kb/d) - which recorded its largest increase ever-, the US (+242 Kb/d), and Russia (+236 Kb/d).

Methodology
Oil production data includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs (natural gas liquids - the liquid content of natural gas where this is recovered separately). It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and coal derivatives.

[...]

... but wait, we need at least a 5% increase every year just to stay even with depletion.

[OilFinder2]

... but wait, we need at least a 5% increase every year just to stay even with depletion.

Huh????

The data showed a 2.2% increase. So according to your reasoning, taking into account a 5% depletion of the pre-existing base, real oil production increased 7.2% last year.



Anyway, Rembrant is back on TOD and here's his latest chart:


link

[Lore]

... but wait, we need at least a 5% increase every year just to stay even with depletion.

Huh????

The data showed a 2.2% increase. So according to your reasoning, taking into account a 5% depletion of the pre-existing base, real oil production increased 7.2% last year.



Anyway, Rembrant is back on TOD and here's his latest chart:


link

The depletion rate is on reserves. You can increase production, which means you are just depleting the reserves that much faster.