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It's official: New monthly world crude oil production record

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby sparky » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 02:30:06

.
Very much following on copious abundance thinking
there is no "peak" until we have one ,
anyone familiar with the sine wave function will recognize that as one reach the apex , growth rate decrease
IE. for the less mathematically inclined , growth decrease ,
then briefly hang in mid air ,
from a reading of the production numbers it would seems to me we are just about the apex
now or in ten years , more or less , predictions never were an exact science ,
neither should they be
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 07:46:23

sparky - True as far as curve shapes go. But one also has to fit some other metrics under that curve to calculate the total "volume": add the thousands of US military lives, the $trillions of US treasury, the immeasurable pain suffered by millions of Americans who had to deal with high energy costs for a while, the many thousands of civilian deaths, the political instability of oil exporting regions, the economic loss of hundreds of thousands of oil field workers and their families, the loss of billions of $ in royalties for citizens, state and federal govts, etc.

Does tend to make one look a tad differently at that seemingly benign curve, eh? LOL.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 09:23:25

Dybbuk wrote:Or are you like the guy who, after the Super Bowl, goes onto forums and rags on whoever picked the losing team, without having made a prediction yourself?


There's a big difference between someone who makes a bad sports prediction and someone who is making repeated chicken little predictions about TEOTWAWKI.

I think this site needs someone like shorty/c.a. in order to hold doomers to the fire when their fast-crash "this is the big one" warnings turn out to be bogus, otherwise this place is just a pointless doomer circle-jerk.

Maybe the best approach is not to stick your neck out in the first place to offer arrogant predictions of X, Y, Z. But it is part of the doomer manifesto to have some new doom right around the corner (hence my popular reference to the Iran Cable Cut incident).
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 09:44:48

So who are the fast-crashers and doomers that led you astray Mos?
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Dybbuk » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 12:30:44

ennui2 wrote:
Dybbuk wrote:Or are you like the guy who, after the Super Bowl, goes onto forums and rags on whoever picked the losing team, without having made a prediction yourself?


There's a big difference between someone who makes a bad sports prediction and someone who is making repeated chicken little predictions about TEOTWAWKI.

I think this site needs someone like shorty/c.a. in order to hold doomers to the fire when their fast-crash "this is the big one" warnings turn out to be bogus, otherwise this place is just a pointless doomer circle-jerk.

Maybe the best approach is not to stick your neck out in the first place to offer arrogant predictions of X, Y, Z. But it is part of the doomer manifesto to have some new doom right around the corner (hence my popular reference to the Iran Cable Cut incident).

True. But this is usually extended into a logical fallacy: "Because doomers in the past predicted that event A would happen on date B, and date B passed without event A happening, this is proof that event A will never happen and that doomers will always be wrong".

That's why I asked if CA had made any specific predictions, because you could throw the same logical fallacy back at cornies. I bet there was some corny who predicted that world oil production would be 100 Mbpd by now. Does that prove that 100 Mbpd will never happen and that cornies are always wrong?
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 12:58:46

Dybbuk wrote:True. But this is usually extended into a logical fallacy: "Because doomers in the past predicted that event A would happen on date B, and date B passed without event A happening, this is proof that event A will never happen and that doomers will always be wrong".


True, but I also don't think we should just quietly sweep bad predictions under the rug in order to avoid coming across as corny. It's possible to be an honest-to-goodness doomer and be frustrated by those who keep saying doom is moments away due to some perceived black-swan trigger.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 13:10:09

D - A very valid point IMHO. OTOH who, cornie or doomer, predicted the various situations we've seen the last 10 years: Mucho rigs drilling/huge crash in rig count, $100+ and $45 bbl oil, decrease in miles driven in the US/increasing miles driven in the US, declining/increasing/declining US oil production, economy crushed by the cost of energy/economic uplift due to lower energy costs, high/low unemployment, etc?

As best I can tell no one has a solid track record over the last 10 years. So, as you say, does that mean the doomer or cornie "logic" is invalid? Hmm...maybe it means both rationales were incorrect...or maybe they were both correct? But how could both be correct/incorrect? A simple answer IMHO: the POD. IOW an absolute failure by both sides of the argument to appreciate the dynamic an ever evolving nature of the energy picture and the associated feedback loops that are unavoidable. IOW don't put a freaking number in your prediction: it will always prove to be wrong...eventually. LOL. In the short term both the cornies and doomers will be correct...and will also be incorrect. It would be like picking the winner in a foot race between two co-joined twins: it doesn't matter whose foot crosses the finish line first...they are both stuck in the same predicament.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby sparky » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 14:31:05

.
@ Rockman , on the curve shape thing , my basic curve is food availability ,
that's the greater concern for me , that's the most important use of hydrocarbon in my mind
suburban commuting is a fine and important thing
but growing food , transporting food , preserving food is (for me) what matter
in fact , it's the last thing people will forgo
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby davep » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 14:50:37

sparky wrote:.
@ Rockman , on the curve shape thing , my basic curve is food availability ,
that's the greater concern for me , that's the most important use of hydrocarbon in my mind
suburban commuting is a fine and important thing
but growing food , transporting food , preserving food is (for me) what matter
in fact , it's the last thing people will forgo


I'd probably put water above food, as it is far more vital to immediate survival and a prerequisite to food production.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 15:30:52

D - A very valid point IMHO. OTOH who, cornie or doomer, predicted the various situations we've seen the last 10 years: Mucho rigs drilling/huge crash in rig count, $100+ and $45 bbl oil, decrease in miles driven in the US/increasing miles driven in the US, declining/increasing/declining US oil production, economy crushed by the cost of energy/economic uplift due to lower energy costs, high/low unemployment, etc?

As best I can tell no one has a solid track record over the last 10 years. So, as you say, does that mean the doomer or cornie "logic" is invalid? Hmm...maybe it means both rationales were incorrect...or maybe they were both correct? But how could both be correct/incorrect? A simple answer IMHO: the POD. IOW an absolute failure by both sides of the argument to appreciate the dynamic an ever evolving nature of the energy picture and the associated feedback loops that are unavoidable. IOW don't put a freaking number in your prediction: it will always prove to be wrong...eventually. LOL. In the short term both the cornies and doomers will be correct...and will also be incorrect. It would be like picking the winner in a foot race between two co-joined twins: it doesn't matter whose foot crosses the finish line first...they are both stuck in the same predicament.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 16:08:30

The best thing about the POD is it predicts nothing and is thus, infallible.

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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby KingM » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 19:00:25

It's worth pointing out that a lot of us have been here a decade and nothing much has changed. I bought a new car in 2005 and someone told me I was crazy. Well, I just bought another new car last year, and am getting ready to swap out the 2005 car for another new vehicle.

And the fact that I'm buying new vehicles also says something about BAU. Every time I've invested in something doomery like gold or wood gassification boiler, it has been a waste of time and money. My traditional investments have done very well. I think I earn about 3 times what I did in 2005, and my net worth is up six-fold. Working in an area that is theoretically vulnerable to PO.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 19:55:17

sparky wrote:.
Very much following on copious abundance thinking
there is no "peak" until we have one ,
anyone familiar with the sine wave function will recognize that as one reach the apex , growth rate decrease

Or, as anyone with a high school education should know, the sine wave isn't based on growth rates at all, but on the shape of the circle. Growth/decay curves may or may not look like sine waves -- often not.

Do markets look like sine waves? Very rarely.

Real world boom and bust curves look far more exponential than sinusoidal. (Is real world recent human historical population growth more like a sine wave or an exponential growth curve? How about US debt growth?

Even if Hubbert is right and the ideal oil production curve will look like a sine wave peaking (and we don't know that), what good does that do us? It's not like global historical oil production looks much like a sine wave -- certainly not enough to accurately gauge if we're almost at the peak.

Is a bumpy plateau of the global oil production chart (if that's where we are) like the top of a sine wave, or part of a long term exponential growth curve, or something else? I don't think we can tell until we look at the long term chart in context, well AFTER events have unfolded.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 20 Jul 2015, 20:05:05

KingM wrote:And the fact that I'm buying new vehicles also says something about BAU. Every time I've invested in something doomery like gold or wood gassification boiler, it has been a waste of time and money. My traditional investments have done very well. I think I earn about 3 times what I did in 2005, and my net worth is up six-fold. Working in an area that is theoretically vulnerable to PO.

Yup. Precious metals are fine for a small part of one's portfolio as an inflation hedge, especially if the possibility of hyperinflation bothers you. (It bothers me, and the well under 10% of my portfolio in precious metals I have stashed away long term are an insurance policy / sleep-at-night investment. I fervently hope I'll never need them to buy food).

But over the course of a several decade investment lifetime, traditional investments like the broad based stock market (reflecting real world economic growth) beat the crap out of pretty much ALL investments.

So aside from the folks confident they can predict "the end" accurately, investing in such things whole hog is bad for everyone except the precious metals retailers.

I'm sure the fine folks at places like zerohedge and hard core doomers/sites will strongly disagree, but the data speaks for itself.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby KingM » Tue 21 Jul 2015, 08:04:41

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
KingM wrote:And the fact that I'm buying new vehicles also says something about BAU. Every time I've invested in something doomery like gold or wood gassification boiler, it has been a waste of time and money. My traditional investments have done very well. I think I earn about 3 times what I did in 2005, and my net worth is up six-fold. Working in an area that is theoretically vulnerable to PO.

Yup. Precious metals are fine for a small part of one's portfolio as an inflation hedge, especially if the possibility of hyperinflation bothers you. (It bothers me, and the well under 10% of my portfolio in precious metals I have stashed away long term are an insurance policy / sleep-at-night investment. I fervently hope I'll never need them to buy food).

But over the course of a several decade investment lifetime, traditional investments like the broad based stock market (reflecting real world economic growth) beat the crap out of pretty much ALL investments.

So aside from the folks confident they can predict "the end" accurately, investing in such things whole hog is bad for everyone except the precious metals retailers.

I'm sure the fine folks at places like zerohedge and hard core doomers/sites will strongly disagree, but the data speaks for itself.


I have some doomery thoughts, and sooner or later civilization will indeed collapse. For now, I've got enough gold and silver to hopefully stay alive in a worst case scenario, but real estate, stocks, and bonds are still the path to long term wealth. Getting out of real estate, though (except for my home). Don't need it anymore, and the annoyances are growing more annoying by the moment.

If you want to get ahead financially, ignore the stuff you see on here. The poor doomers from 10 years ago are still struggling to pay their bills. That's all you need to know.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 21 Jul 2015, 11:12:38

I don't know Kingm. I bought gold at $240 before Y2K and $270 before 2005 peak oil. Made out like a King! Bought remote cheap norcal coastal real-estate in 1998 before AGW (it was global warming then). That investment has been real cool man :) (get it? cool.) People want to be here now because it is sunny and 65 degrees in mid July. They more and more are scared of AGW (I was also) and my area keeps looking better.

doom has worked for me
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 21 Jul 2015, 13:41:03

As far as bad doomer moves go, some doomers feel like they have to quit their jobs (no matter how lucrative they may have been) and go bugout into the wilderness. That's fine in a fast-crash scenario where you're awaiting the zombie horde, but assuming that's not gonna happen, at least not right away, anyone with a decent job in the bosom of BAU should try to keep making the most of it. You can do a lot better in a white-collar BAU job than you can in a doom-friendly job like boutique organic farming. IMHO, only retirees, the independently wealthy, people without enough marketable skills for white-collar work, or people without a lot of family obligations and a strong passion to downscale their lifestyle should consider bugging out now.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Jul 2015, 14:23:25

Pops - "The best thing about the POD is it predicts nothing and is thus, infallible." True but only to a degree. The POD clearly predicts both the cornies and the doomers are going to be wrong/correct as far as how they quantify their expectations. That's the whole basis of the POD: it's such a complex system it isn't going to be very predictable except perhaps in the very short term. Which is the real value of the POD concept: there is no straight line extrapolation possible. Be it doom or cornucopia both attitudes are faulty...eventually. But the POD will always be correct in the sense that it encompasses the entire range of high/lows, good times/bad time depending on where you fit in the big picture, etc.

It is the unpredictability of the POD that is its real value: no matter what you think will happen eventually you'll eventually be proven to be full of sh*t. LOL.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby hvacman » Tue 21 Jul 2015, 17:21:17

People want to be here now because it is sunny and 65 degrees in mid July. They more and more are scared of AGW (I was also) and my area keeps looking better.


Ah, coastal Humboldt County - 65 degrees, sunny, and at the low price of just 4+ minutes of 9+ Richter-scale shaking.

You live in earthquake country, according to Humboldt State University.

http://www2.humboldt.edu/shakyground/info/why_care/you_live_in_earthquake_country1/

But HSU sugar-coats it. The New Yorker's detailed article should put the fear of God in anyone living on the coast between Cape Mendocino and southern Alaska:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

As sure as fossil fuels will run out, so will the ground shake so hard in some areas that there will be nothing left except debris for the tsunami following to sweep away. The question is not if, but when. We each make our bets and hope we're right.
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Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 21 Jul 2015, 17:30:16

hvac, sorry I brought it up. This isn't a doomer thread.

(I am good to about 7.9 on the richter scale. Modern construction. Lots of wood around here to rebuild.)
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