Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

It's official: New monthly world crude oil production record

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 17 Apr 2015, 15:00:28

vt - I don't know: I've time in various world class sh*t around the planet where the typical poor American would be classified as upper middle class to rich. LOL
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9681
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby sparky » Fri 17 Apr 2015, 15:53:19

.
The first basic need is personal security
the second is 1500 k calories a day
the third is good drinking water
the fourth is some shelter
User avatar
sparky
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3180
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 17 Apr 2015, 16:04:01

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - I don't know: I've time in various world class sh*t around the planet where the typical poor American would be classified as upper middle class to rich. LOL

I don't know as such a thing still exists but they used to say a kid in America with a paper route had more income then 75% of the rest of the world.
For a lot of people living in slums and shanty towns in the third world getting to America and just being able to pan handle on a street corner would be coming to the promised land.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7174
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 17 Apr 2015, 23:57:25

vtsnowedin wrote:
ralfy wrote:Also, most people worldwide earn only a few dollars a day and lack one or more basic needs.

That statement strikes me as being off the mark. If "most people" which would be more then 3.5 billion to be "most", lack "one or more basic needs" and they continue to live year in and year out and are in fact multiplying then these basic needs are not needs or basic at least in the way or in the volumes the statistician supposes. Obviously their true Base needs have been met or they would have already died.
That is not to say these people don't like in deplorable conditions of poverty ,hunger and thirst but I haven't got a clue as to what can be done about it that isn't abhorrent.


I gave the information in other threads. You can probably get the same from:

http://www.globalrichlist.com/

The poverty line is more than a dollar a day. You might find more details here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_threshold

The basic needs were explained in another thread. You can find more details in

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_needs

It is very likely that to cover the basic needs mentioned, one will need more than a dollar or two daily. Some argue that around $10 a day should be enough to cover basic needs up to intermediate health care, but likely will still require government services. Those might be the source of basic needs met for most people worldwide who are poor. However, governments in many poor countries also lack funds.

Given that, it is very likely that what we thought hasn't taken place has been taking place for decades. It's just that we were focusing on a minority of people, or those who belong to developed countries or a small global middle class (those who earn $10 or more daily).

Thus, even a moderate increase in oil prices will affect the global economy as most people are poor.

However, income levels have been going up (e.g., from a dollar for the poverty line to $1.25), and with that, a growing global middle class:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22956470

which means a lot more oil and other resources will be needed, i.e., if that class reaches almost 5 billion in less than two decades.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4361
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 18 Apr 2015, 18:02:23

DesuMaiden wrote:Just as a side note, I don't take the OP seriously. Copious. Abundance seriously has some mental issues ..

The irony of DesuMaiden accusing someone else of having mental issues, cannot be overstated.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9505
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 18 Apr 2015, 20:05:08

copious.abundance wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:Just as a side note, I don't take the OP seriously. Copious. Abundance seriously has some mental issues ..

The irony of DesuMaiden accusing someone else of having mental issues, cannot be overstated.

You are delusional to think that there are plentiful resources. Virtually every natural resource is becoming scarce because of overuse. I don't argue with delusional people like you. Well, when industrial civilization collapses, your delusional cornucopian fantasy will be bitch slapped out of existence.
DesuMaiden
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 834
Joined: Mon 06 Oct 2014, 15:00:31

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 Apr 2015, 20:21:42

D - Copious does make a somewhat valid point. Taking shots at someone's personality instead of just bitch slapping them with facts is a more effective way of countering bullsh*t. Anyway that's how I usually try to respond to him. LOL.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9681
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby sparky » Sun 19 Apr 2015, 13:21:56

.
Copious abundance fulfill a vital role ,
to keep the zealots from flying off in the great blue yonder of self congratulation
for example look at the parasite threads on warming infecting the board ,
hardly a discussion , more of reciting mantras

Copious abundance has facts on his side , raw official numbers , one might not like it ,
It certainly prove uncomfortable to my beliefs , but facts are facts !
but life is not simple and wishful thinking is not my thing
User avatar
sparky
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3180
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 19 Apr 2015, 15:20:56

ROCKMAN wrote:D - Copious does make a somewhat valid point. Taking shots at someone's personality instead of just bitch slapping them with facts is a more effective way of countering bullsh*t. Anyway that's how I usually try to respond to him. LOL.

Copious Abundance is pretty much one of the ignorant folks thinking technology will solve anything. He completely ignores the fact that human technology cannot overturn the laws of nature because technology is restricted by natural resource limitations. If you run out of a certain resource, you simply cannot make anymore of a certain technology. For example, we are running out of rare earth elements, causing them to become more scarce and expensive meaning computers will become more expensive in the future (in addition to the fact that oil is becoming more scarce and expensive, and oil is necessary for the construction of computers). Copious Abundance ignores science and evidence, and instead believes that a sci-fi hi-tech world is possible despite the laws of nature saying it is not.

There is literally nothing in any combination that can replace the edifice built by fossil fuels. Everything from cars, computers, planes, trucks, clothing, cosmetics, plastics and countless products (almost everything you own) is made of fossil fuels, so if you take away the fossil fuels, say bye bye to most things you own.
DesuMaiden
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 834
Joined: Mon 06 Oct 2014, 15:00:31

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby davep » Sun 19 Apr 2015, 15:30:37

DesuMaiden wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:D - Copious does make a somewhat valid point. Taking shots at someone's personality instead of just bitch slapping them with facts is a more effective way of countering bullsh*t. Anyway that's how I usually try to respond to him. LOL.

Copious Abundance is pretty much one of the ignorant folks thinking technology will solve anything. He completely ignores the fact that human technology cannot overturn the laws of nature because technology is restricted by natural resource limitations. If you run out of a certain resource, you simply cannot make anymore of a certain technology. For example, we are running out of rare earth elements, causing them to become more scarce and expensive meaning computers will become more expensive in the future (in addition to the fact that oil is becoming more scarce and expensive, and oil is necessary for the construction of computers). Copious Abundance ignores science and evidence, and instead believes that a sci-fi hi-tech world is possible despite the laws of nature saying it is not.

There is literally nothing in any combination that can replace the edifice built by fossil fuels. Everything from cars, computers, planes, trucks, clothing, cosmetics, plastics and countless products (almost everything you own) is made of fossil fuels, so if you take away the fossil fuels, say bye bye to most things you own.


Copious is more of a devil's advocate, and you can't counter figures with ad hominem attacks. You need to prove him wrong with details to counter his details. Your rare earth stuff was from five years ago, when the situation was considered dire. Granted, they won't last forever, but you don't necessarily help your argument by using outdated information that was discussed here at the time.

Of course we live on a finite planet, but saying "There is literally nothing in any combination that can replace the edifice built by fossil fuels" is just far too broad. Whatever replaces fossil fuels will happen in a transitional manner, and if you're interested in how to transition choose an area or two (e.g. agriculture, alternative energy sources, transport, passive solar housing) and look into how YOU can help that transition in your environment.
What we think, we become.
User avatar
davep
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
 
Posts: 4565
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 02:00:00
Location: Europe

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 16 Jul 2015, 00:21:31

Time for another update!

Remember that "peak oil" thing that was supposed to happen around, like, 2008? Or 2011? Or whenever it was? :lol:

Data is through March. Just a hair under 80 million barrels/day! :shock:

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9505
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Jul 2015, 04:59:47

Doomers will always come with an excuse as to why their predicted doom didn't arrive on schedule. Which is why I am a former doomer. Not quite a cornucopian but very close to it.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7996
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 16 Jul 2015, 08:09:08

copious.abundance wrote:Time for another update!
Data is through March. Just a hair under 80 million barrels/day! :shock:

Image


This is useful information, thank you for posting it with links.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13498
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Dybbuk » Sat 18 Jul 2015, 08:01:24

copious.abundance wrote:Remember that "peak oil" thing that was supposed to happen around, like, 2008? Or 2011? Or whenever it was? :lol:


CA, have you ever made any specific predictions of future oil production levels?

If so, can you post a link so that we can critique your forecasts (in whatever time frame they apply to)?

Or are you like the guy who, after the Super Bowl, goes onto forums and rags on whoever picked the losing team, without having made a prediction yourself?
Dybbuk
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 106
Joined: Fri 28 Dec 2012, 18:31:37

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 18 Jul 2015, 09:31:40

Dybbuk wrote:
copious.abundance wrote:Remember that "peak oil" thing that was supposed to happen around, like, 2008? Or 2011? Or whenever it was? :lol:


CA, have you ever made any specific predictions of future oil production levels?

If so, can you post a link so that we can critique your forecasts (in whatever time frame they apply to)?

Or are you like the guy who, after the Super Bowl, goes onto forums and rags on whoever picked the losing team, without having made a prediction yourself?

Well, as a fan of C.A.'s devil's advocate role, and how he has almost always been WAY more right than all the doomers combined on both economic activity in general and oil production -- from the first comment in THIS thread he wrote:

copious.abundance wrote:Do I need to point out how many times someone here told me we were past peak, and that production was about to fall off a permanent cliff? And how many times I was scoffed at and ridiculed because I thought production would reach new highs in the future?

(Red font mine, for emphasis). If you want many economic examples, try the "Reports of US Economic Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated Pt 3" thread (and its earlier parts).

New highs for oil production in the future isn't an exact number, but it is a specific long term trend forecast, and fits the general corny model. And so far he has been basically right. (Same thing for basic economic growth).

Just because the doomers hate this and often claim he's always wrong (even while they are wrong) because they assume SOME DAY they will be right doesn't make them rational about this.

I'm a moderate who thinks we will generally blunder along for another century or so, ineffectively trying to deal with the big problems (letting population growth overwhelm most of the benefits of our solutions) -- as humans have done throughout written history. I do give credit over time though, to those who are basically right, say, decade by decade. (Beyond a century -- with things changing as fast as they are, any general forecasts rely on WAY too many assumptions, IMO).
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 3256
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 18 Jul 2015, 15:50:40

"Remember that "peak oil" thing that was supposed to happen around, like, 2008? Or 2011? Or whenever it was?" Actually the "peak oil thing" did happen even before 2008. The POT (peak oil thing) is better known these days as the POD...Peak Oil Dynamic. And it is alive and doing very well as the surge in US oil production and the recent collapse of oil prices prove.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9681
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 18 Jul 2015, 21:11:24

This link was posted on the front page.

Top 5 Oil Producing Countries Could See Production Peak This Year

The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook came out a few days ago. That is where they try to guess the future production and price for oil, for the USA as well as the world. As of late they seem to be getting a little timid with their predictions. They are saying not much growth is happening until the fourth quarter of 2016, and only a slight bump then.


Image

This chart is Non-OPEC Total Liquids in million barrels per day. Production of N.O Liquids surged upwards from September of 2012 until December 2014, gaining 6.38 million barrels per day in those 27 months. That’s an average increase of 236,000 barrels per day per month. But then in January 2015 there was a drop of 800,000 bpd.

Non-OPEC total liquids still have not reached that December high again but the EIA thinks they will by August. I have my doubts. I also think they have their April and May liquids production estimates a little too high here. I have their predictions here starting in June though the EIA starts their projection in July. But there is no way that June production is anything but a guess here, and a bad guess at that.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
User avatar
Graeme
Master
Master
 
Posts: 13257
Joined: Fri 04 Mar 2005, 03:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 18 Jul 2015, 21:22:25

Hey copius, you are not going to let the green cornie get away with his nonsense. There is no peak.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 24649
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 19 Jul 2015, 05:49:37

copious.abundance wrote:Time for another update!

Remember that "peak oil" thing that was supposed to happen around, like, 2008? Or 2011? Or whenever it was? :lol:

Data is through March. Just a hair under 80 million barrels/day! :shock:

Image

Looks like a bumpy plateau to me. MIGHT even be a cliff coming up. :mrgreen:
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7174
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: It's official: New monthly world crude oil production re

Unread postby C8 » Sun 19 Jul 2015, 11:56:13

Most of us want CO2 to come down, the problem is this leads to wishful thinking. People become fixated on the new tech in solar and wind and refuse to notice that new tech is also revolutionizing the fossil fuels industry.
User avatar
C8
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 520
Joined: Sun 14 Apr 2013, 08:02:48

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests