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Is The War On Coal Really Over?

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 11:44:30

It makes no financial sense to disconnect from grid power if you are already connected. If you are planning to live in a remote location that doesn't have power and its going to cost $30,000+ to bring in power, then maybe it would work out for you. Our local utility sells solar power systems w/o battery back-up, using grid back-up, the website says they've installed 600 home systems for a population served of 2.5 million, proving you can only fool some of the people some of the time!

From Telsa Canada Website

Order Summary
One 14 kWh Powerwall battery (to power lights, plug-ins, 1 stove for a day)
$7,800
Supporting hardware
$950
Price for Powerwall equipment
$8,750

Typical installation cost ranges from $1,050 to $2,700. This does not include solar installation, electrical upgrades (if necessary), taxes, permit fees, or any retailer / connection charges that may apply. Installation cost will vary based on your electrical panel, and where you would like your Powerwall installed. Installation will be scheduled after you place your order.
Canada installation Canada

So cost for 1 day of minimal back-up power capacity is $10,000, and that's without any solar panel generation. I'll be sticking with my fossil fueled grid supplied power thank you.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 12:15:49

Jawagord, again your inherent assumption is that things will always be more or less the same as today. But the basic premise of peakoil.com is that the fundamental theory of M. King Hubbert is valid. Furthermore, the other energy sources such as coal and uranium are heavily dependant upon cheap motor fuels to mine, and uranium is then dependant upon grid electricity for enrichment to power plant grade material. The implication being that transport fuels and grid electricity from all power plants will more or less appreciate in price on the downslope of the oil production peak.

I would go so far as to say that oil production has peaked already. Nor would anybody dispute Hubbert's other assertion that oil discoveries would peak before production peaks. Hubbert did not forecast the shales and tar sands and the like, or more modern well extraction methods such as hydraulic fracking, but his forecast of peak production from conventional wells is (most here would agree) in the past. The production peak in conventional oil occurred in the late 2000's. All since then is smoke and mirrors and alternative oils.

Fossil fuel energy will slowly appreciate in price forever past this point is my fundamental assumption. If we have a big enough headstart on the infrastructure renewal and the adoption of renewable energies, we can preserve some semblance of the present energy hog American lifestyle. But if we do not begin conversion of the infrastructure before then, we will not have the resources to do so, and our quality of life will suffer drasticly in the fossil fuel powerdown.

We practice what we preach here. GHung has an off-grid rural residence and farm, with solar panels and batteries. Baha is a solar photovoltaic installer with solar panels and a Tesla Powerwall battery. I have a grid-attached solar roof in California, where early this year on May 13 the state achieved a record day with 80.7 percent of grid power from renewable energy sources (including hydropower).

Convert to renewables or plan to live without electrical energy, because the oil peak happened already.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 14:45:24

KaiserJeep wrote:kub, my basic assumption is that oil peaked and is in decline. Natural Gas and Coal will also peak. Then FF-sourced grid electricity, and transportation, will eventually be 10X (or more) as expensive as today, prohibitively expensive.

Last assumption: we must use the last gasp of FF's to convert the country's power infrastucture to renewables. This is without even disputing your numbers. The IER figures say coal powered electricity costs $0.032 kWh to produce, and after the markups that comprise the grid expenses and profit, it sells for a retail price of about $0.130 kWh. When coal fired electricity is selling for $1.30 kWh (mainly because we ran out of cheap oil to mine it with), wind and solar PV are both far more attractive than FF's - lots cheaper, even with batteries.

Remember the oil peak.
Solar PV generation is also much cheaper on the grid side than on the rooftop.

Utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the U.S. are significantly more cost effective than residential-scale (rooftop) PV systems. The generation cost of energy from 300 MW of utility-scale PV solar is roughly one-half the cost per kWh of the output from an equivalent 300 MW of 5kW residential-scale systems. The study attributes the large difference in per-MWh costs between utility- and residential-scale systems primarily to economies of scale and greater solar electric output resulting from optimized panel orientation and tracking assumed for utility-scale systems. The improved orientation and tracking of utility-scale solar also result in a higher capacity factor. The reason utility-scale solar saves so much more carbon than rooftop PV is because the solar energy per MW is much higher on utility-scale due to better placement and tracking capability.
Study by Brattle Economists Quantifies the Benefits of Utility-Scale Solar PV
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 15:12:44

kub, again I have never disputed that residential scale solar is more expensive on a per kilowatt basis than is central power plant. But the cost-of-generation is then marked-up to allow for power company profit and to cover the power grid expenses. California has recently proved that large solar is not cost effective (either in solar PV or solar thermal), and that residential scale all the way up to medium scale Solar PV is practical, economical, and increases grid stability while reducing the need for "peaking" facilities. Silicon Valley where I live has enough residences with solar PV roofs, and medium-sized solar PV in parking lots, schools, and shopping malls, that we have virtually idled the CALPINE gas turbine peaking plant about two miles from my home.

The last part of the equation: after total infrastructure renewal, the energy required for transport, buildings, manufacturing, and agriculture is reduced to 1/6th the present level, with no serious lifestyle change, and using present technology for everything, no pie-in-the-sky tech required.

We are talking LED lighting versus incandescent, superinsulated structures, the elimination of "security lighting" which causes our planet to gleam into space at night, HVAC via ground source heat pump, etc. etc.

Reduce energy demand by 5/6ths over a few decades, and continue to live a modified version of the current American lifestyle after the decline of fossil fuels. Renewables are sufficient if we reduce power demand at the same time we bring them online.

The catch: Two generations of hardship to renew the infrastructure - but with high employment. But it's essential that we start soon, the runway is short before the FF price escalation,
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 15:40:20

KaiserJeep wrote:California has recently proved that large solar is not cost effective (either in solar PV or solar thermal), and that residential scale all the way up to medium scale Solar PV is practical, economical, and increases grid stability while reducing the need for "peaking" facilities.
Source please. This contradicts multiple sources I have read on this topic.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 16:23:16

k - Texas may be on the verge of proving solar's large scale viability. Remember one big advantage: we already spent $7 BILLION to upgrade the grid to handle wind power. All solar need do is tie in. From

https://www.seia.org/state-solar-policy/texas-solar

Facts on the Texas Solar Industry
• Solar Installed: 1,620.2 MW (676.3 MW in 2016)
• National Ranking: 7th (6th in 2016)
• Total Solar Investment in State: $2.52 billion ($915.81 million in 2016)
• State Homes Powered by Solar: 182,000
• Percentage of State’s Electricity from Solar: 0.39%
Growth Projections and Ranking: 4,671 MW over next 5 years (ranks 2nd)

And remember Georgetown, Texas, is the first major city planning to go 100% renewable with a new solar farm built specifically for the project and combined with an existing wind farm.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 16:59:44

Rockman - KaiserJeep was talking about unplugging from the grid and going solar PV + batteries. Sure you could do that, but it is cheaper to stay grid connected.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby GHung » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 19:49:11

As I've said before, it's as much about mindset than anything else. It pretty much goes WHOOSH for most of you because you accept the convenience and faux-security of hyper-complexity as normal and right. Like the rest of you, I'm a slave of centralized complexity, but I can't think of a better way to spend a few extra bucks than to reduce or eliminate those connections one at a time.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 20:18:03

Ghung - just because people decide they don't want to pull the plug and go off grid doesn't mean we don't understand how it could be done. It's just not a very compelling option for most of us.

kublikhan wrote:Existing costs for grid electricity are fairly modest. And that modest cost energy is available to us 24/7. Also, there is very little education that you need for using grid electricity. So grid electricity is cheap, convenient, and requires very little education. You are proposing we consider a system that is expensive, inconvenient, and requires a considerable amount of education to bring us up to speed. All for a modest payoff at best. This is not a very compelling argument you are making. So I don't think it is that surprising that hardly anyone considers doing this.

On-Grid RE
I urge most folks to use the utility grid with their RE system. More than 40 U.S. states have some form of net metering available. This means that a large majority of U.S. utility customers can “bank” any surplus energy their PV system produces with their local utility, and use the credit to pay for future utility electricity usage.

Reality Check
On-grid RE system owners have a great deal. When their resource—sun, wind, or water—is available, they use it. When they make too much energy, the grid takes the surplus and gives credit. And when it’s dark, calm, or the creek is dry, the utility is there to provide the needed energy. Off-grid system owners have to take all the responsibility of generating all of their energy, all of the time.

The most challenging part of off-grid living is dealing with the variable resource. Raising a bunch of kids off-grid taught me a lot of lessons. One is that folks usually assume that electricity will be constant and abundant. This is part of our culture, and off-grid folks are not immune, since they interact with the on-grid culture on a regular basis. While there are many times when RE is very abundant—most every sunny day and whenever there’s a windstorm, for example—there are other times when it’s scarce. Surfing this wave of abundance and scarcity can be satisfying to some of us, but it’s challenging to others.
So You Want to Go Off-Grid

For homeowners that have access to the grid, off-grid solar systems are usually out of question. Here`s why:
To ensure access to electricity at all times, off-grid solar systems require battery storage and a backup generator (if you live off-the-grid). On top of this, a battery bank typically needs to be replaced after 10 years. Batteries are complicated, expensive and decrease overall system efficiency.
Grid-Tied, Off-Grid and Hybrid Solar Systems
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby GHung » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 20:41:21

"Ghung - just because people decide they don't want to pull the plug and go off grid doesn't mean we don't understand how it could be done. It's just not a very compelling option for most of us."

As I said; WHOOSH. It's not about HOW it could be done.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 21:26:36

GHung wrote:As I said; WHOOSH. It's not about HOW it could be done.
Of course. It's all about your superior mindset. Only you have seen the light. Us plebes are just not as enlightened as you. I'm sure it had nothing to do with the $20k it would cost to wire you up to the grid. I wonder if you even realize how sanctimonious you are coming off as.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby GHung » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 21:39:15

kublikhan wrote:
GHung wrote:As I said; WHOOSH. It's not about HOW it could be done.
Of course. It's all about your superior mindset. Only you have seen the light. Us plebes are just not as enlightened as you. I'm sure it had nothing to do with the $20k it would cost to wire you up to the grid. I wonder if you even realize how sanctimonious you are coming off as.


I wonder if you even realize how threatened you sound.

Anyone who sees their place in the world differently than you see your place in the world must consider their view as superior? Really?
When have I ever claimed my mindset is superior? Specific examples please. You guys spend a lot of time and energy telling the world why your way of life is preferable, showing us all sorts of "facts and figures" as to why, and accuse people who discuss alternatives of acting "superior". I'm left questioning your character at that point.

It's ok because I'm used to it. I've had people for years, some I don't even know, tell me why my way of living is wrong. Inferior. Why would they do that?
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby GHung » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 21:50:20

pstarr wrote:
GHung wrote:As I've said before, it's as much about mindset than anything else. It pretty much goes WHOOSH for most of you because you accept the convenience and faux-security of hyper-complexity as normal and right. Like the rest of you, I'm a slave of centralized complexity, but I can't think of a better way to spend a few extra bucks than to reduce or eliminate those connections one at a time.

You may reduce you natural gas/coal consumption by generating some of your electricity and living small. However the maintenance of your systems depend on a complex series of high-tech industrial energy chains. You may walk or bike to work and get some electricity and heat from the sun. I have done the same, but sadly it matters little really, unless we grow our food and wood, forge our tools and wire from a backyard iron and copper mine. And don't depend on municipal services.

We will certainly never eliminate our connections to the oil pump. The fossil fuels we consume for our homes and cars are a minor fraction of the fossil fuels that are consumed FOR US. It is simply impossible to disconnect the petroleum umbilical cord no matter how we try. :cry:


I'm not a binary thinker so I don't deal in absolutes. I never expected to completely eliminate my use of fossil fuels or the need to deal with complex systems. That doesn't mean I can't significantly reduce my dependence on such. And I have.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 22:40:56

GHung - I am not threatened by someone living off grid nor do I think it is inferior. I applaud your unconventional lifestyle. Those "facts and figures" were not intended to persuade you my way of life is superior to yours. They were there to make a simple point: for a given lifestyle unplugging from the grid is more expensive than staying on the grid. That's it. From that simple point you construed it was over my head that there are other reasons for going off grid besides money. Duh. We all get that Ghung.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 23:09:48

Kub, again I make the point: the basic premise with peak oil is that energy will increase in cost forevermore. Just how long the downward sloping production curve is depends upon how soon a FF panic sets in, it could be tomorrow or it could be 3-5 decades away - no way to predict that one with human psychology in the mix.

The Solar PV and wind residential systems are attractively priced NOW. Best have something before dwindling FF supplies drive up the price. Wait too long, own candles and curse the darkness.

Consider for one moment the viability of your current residence when HVAC costs have gone up 10X. Again, no way to know when that will happen.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 18 Oct 2017, 23:50:45

KaiserJeep - I am a proponent of Solar PV & wind. However I am not convinced unplugging from the grid and turning every home into a power plant is the most cost effective option. I think it would be cheaper to let the utility install the Solar PV & wind. The grid has economy of scale advantages, distributed energy works better when connected to your neighbors(your surplus is routed to your neighbor's deficit), you get professionals maintaining the system instead of amateurs, etc.

Those residential systems look attractively priced now because of subsidies. However once those subsidies are removed, they don't look so attractive anymore. We have seen solar PV installations fall off a cliff every time subsidies are cut back. Spain, Nevada, Hawaii, etc.

My view of the future is a bit more optimistic than yours. I am not predicting candles in my future. Foolishly optimistic? Perhaps. But I will take my chances.
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Re: The war on coal is over. Coal lost.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 19 Oct 2017, 00:15:50

k - "Sure you could do that, but it is cheaper to stay grid connected." Thanks. Residential solar might work OK in some areas. But as you point out those economics will look poor in some situations.. And Texas will be one state where those economics will struggle against our relatively local commercial rates.

And again due much to the high connectivity of our grid that's managed by a true electricity czar...EXCOT. And with our deregulated power I have numerous companies competing for my business. The best deals now: free nights (2200-0500 hrs) and weekends. And as far as backup for losing the grid, like during a hurricane, a gasoline generator is much more economical. Especially when you inherit one at no cost like I did. And after 10 years I still haven't had to use it even once.

And I grew up in south Louisiana so if need be I'm OK without AC. But not my Yankee wife. So have a 110 window unit to keep her and the dogs cool. And our propane grill is our preferred method anyway. I would enjoy setting up a small set of panels on the top of my carport just for fun now that costs have come down. But stuck in a wheel chair kills that idea: paying someone to rig up a hobby project doesn't work for me.

But my wife did find some cheap solar powered string lights for the patio and they're neat.
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