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Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 15:49:54

Back to topic of 2°. I asked above and no one responded...

It seems we have consensus we will blow through 2°C, what do you do with that knowledge? How does it change your plans, your daily life?
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 16:14:20

Newfie wrote:Back to topic of 2°. I asked above and no one responded...

It seems we have consensus we will blow through 2°C, what do you do with that knowledge? How does it change your plans, your daily life?

So then the question becomes how soon will this happen along with its destabilizing effects?
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 22:25:09

A few years back now, Mann, I think it was, published something in SciAm that projected 2C increase by 2036 as I recall, if dramatic changes weren't implemented.

So far, I haven't seen much wrt dramatic changes, not in the right directions, anyway.

Personally, I'm gonna try to continue to minimalize my personal contribution to the sh!t storm. Maybe 'rage against the machine' a bit (i.e. political activism), continue to keep track of said sh!t storm as it unfolds on this and other forums until all such info is outlawed or no longer available for other reasons...

Oh, and continue to build resilient communities while vastly reducing local food waste and feeding and clothing the poor.

That's about all I got right now... :)
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 23:41:26

Newfie wrote:Back to topic of 2°. I asked above and no one responded...

It seems we have consensus we will blow through 2°C, what do you do with that knowledge? How does it change your plans, your daily life?


I have said this several times but I guess it bares repeating. I believe the very last chance we had to change course was the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Agreement. When that went down in flames I realized no politician anywhere was going to make or enforce real change in how humanity exploits fossil fuels.

IOW if it is flammable humans will burn it, sooner or later but probably sooner.

Therefore we are past the point of mitigation and in the process of adaptation, like it or lump it.

I still keep my house cooler than average, drive a fuel efficient car as little as possible when I need to go places and generally consume energy well below the average rate for an American living in my part of the country. However, I no longer have any illusions this will do anything to change humanities chosen pathway.

I also choose to live in a place where maximum sea level rise won't touch me or my relatives. This location has major and minor rivers flowing into the southernmost Great Lake which will provide potable water for a very long time even if a terrible drop in annual rainfall happens from altered weather patterns after the climate flips to hothouse.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 04:47:21

Yup.

To paraphrase T's excellent point here with a slightly extended metaphor:

Grandma earth's human inflicted injuries are pretty clearly terminal, but some of us still prefer not to kick the old lady in the face any harder than can reasonably be helped on her way out...
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 07:26:41

And some prefer and plan on riding out if possible the nasty and deadly consequences , so as to live not too short a life and/or not experience a particularly unpleasant death
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 09:47:09

"...plan on riding out..."

Well, good luck with that. However resilient you think your doomstead is, multiple devastating factors my play havoc with your plans.

•If you are in a wooded or even grassland area, wildfires are likely to be an increasing threat, as we just saw in southern Cal.

•If you are not quite high above whatever stream or floodplain you're near, flooding is likely to get you.

• Increasingly intense storms are ever more likely to blow your roof of or strike vital infrastructure with lightening.

• Even if you are near a usually reliable source of water (but not near a floodplain), you are likely to face occasional or permanent drought conditions that will dry everything up.

• If you're near the coast, you are likely to get hit by sea level rise and by ever increasingly intense storms and hurricanes from the sea...

• And if you manage to avoid those and all the other many direct effects of GW on your property, you are likely to be inundated by those seeking shelter from the same, or to have your home confiscated by government authorities for similar purposes.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 10:36:23

I didn't say I was doing that D. I have a secret plan :-D :lol:
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 10:42:36

As Tanada pointed out well enough we are past the point of mitigation.

So my plan is not to think about it any longer, not to invest any more energy or time toward futility.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 10:58:20

Ibon wrote:As Tanada pointed out well enough we are past the point of mitigation.

So my plan is not to think about it any longer, not to invest any more energy or time toward futility.

+1
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 11:03:20

dohboi wrote:you are likely to be inundated by those seeking shelter from the same, or to have your home confiscated by government authorities for similar purposes


The above is one of a few different risks to those who think they can just pick a safe spot to hunker down.

The other two are:

1) Rapid climate change degrades the land and makes it hard to achieve steady yields or even build up perennials. Could be rainfall disruption, early/late frosts, changes to hardiness zones, fires, new and uncontrollable invasive species. Regional biocapacity is really a moving target so picking a location should be seen as nothing but a gamble.

2) This would take decades and might be more of a problem for our children but climate refugees and population pressures being what they are, what was one a sparsely populated woodlands might rapidly shift to a hungry town. Now instead of hick farmer neighbors you have a town that is well above carrying capacity and who will be threatened to raid the farm if it gets to famine conditions. Point being that you can't guarantee security through physical isolation in a world that could very well go over 10 billion on a planet with rapidly eroding carrying capacity.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 11:04:24

Ibon wrote:As Tanada pointed out well enough we are past the point of mitigation.

So my plan is not to think about it any longer, not to invest any more energy or time toward futility.


Doesn't mean we are past the point of personal mitigation, which means my plan is largely the same as it has been over 20 years:

Avoid societal and economic traps => Debt, reliance upon ever more complex systems, reliance upon energy systems that will become less reliable and more expensive, have a Plan B for food, water, and other criticals.

Call it prepping if you want, but I've always seen it as being able to live more cheaply as TPTB devise more ways to divert what wealth remains to their plutocrat masters. Signs are everywhere that this will continue - household debt has once again hit a new high, energy prices are creeping up, income inequality continues to increase, political impotence is effectively complete,, all that. Best to keep one's expectations local and humble.

.... and as Dohboi says, no point in contributing to the madness more than one has to, even if others have thrown in the towel.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 14:06:08

GHung wrote:.... and as Dohboi says, no point in contributing to the madness more than one has to, even if others have thrown in the towel.


Serving others, frugality, walks in the woods, conserving, reusing, working the land, identifying the bio diversity around you, etc. When these are your main interests in life you are automatically not a consumer and not contributing to the madness.

So I come back to the question.

Why focus at all on that which can't be mitigated? It is futile.

Not only futile, it serves no purpose since all of those individual actions you mention to not contribute to the madness happen to also be the same activities that bring you real contentment. So you don't need the reality of future unmitigatable consequences to be a motive.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 14:24:54

Ibon wrote:
GHung wrote:.... and as Dohboi says, no point in contributing to the madness more than one has to, even if others have thrown in the towel.


Serving others, frugality, walks in the woods, conserving, reusing, working the land, identifying the bio diversity around you, etc. When these are your main interests in life you are automatically not a consumer and not contributing to the madness.

So I come back to the question.

Why focus at all on that which can't be mitigated? It is futile.

Not only futile, it serves no purpose since all of those ways you mention to not contribute to the madness happen to also be the same activities that bring you real contentment.


Not sure how it is where you live, but, here in the States, society and the economy have a remarkable number of ways to reach into your life to try and force you out of your bliss zone. Knowing what those are requires a certain level of vigilance. It's not so much what can and can't be mitigated, but more about not being dragged into the abyss.

What you speak of reminds me of "On the Turning Away". There is an endless list of things I can't 'mitigate' which still need to be acknowledged, IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMxkxBGJbFg

"On The Turning Away"

On the turning away
From the pale and downtrodden
And the words they say
Which we won't understand
"Don't accept that what's happening
Is just a case of others' suffering
Or you'll find that you're joining in
The turning away"

It's a sin that somehow
Light is changing to shadow
And casting its shroud
Over all we have known
Unaware how the ranks have grown
Driven on by a heart of stone
We could find that we're all alone
In the dream of the proud

On the wings of the night
As the daytime is stirring
Where the speechless unite
In a silent accord
Using words you will find are strange
Mesmerized as they light the flame
Feel the new wind of change
On the wings of the night

No more turning away
From the weak and the weary
No more turning away
From the coldness inside
Just a world that we all must share
It's not enough just to stand and stare
Is it only a dream that there'll be
No more turning away?
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 17:24:08

GHung wrote:
What you speak of reminds me of "On the Turning Away". There is an endless list of things I can't 'mitigate' which still need to be acknowledged, IMO.


At what point along the time line of thousands of posts on the subject of human overshoot do we move from acknowledgement of the problem to recognizing that these endless posts only represent the gravitational pull that the status quo still has on us? You see, 9000 or 12000 or 6000 posts later like many posters on this site you have to suspect this has moved somewhere beyond acknowledgement to some sort of deeper motive that keeps one in orbit around the futility of our dilemma and needing to return daily to share this with others.

Are you going to be any wiser 3000 posts later in a few years? .

So there is no need to frame ones sustainable living based on a motive that one is lessening the damage or even acting symbolically to make a stand against the pathway our modern civilization is taking. We all here recognize a certain futility in mitigation.

The motives to generate your own power, grow your own food, recycle, fix things, live frugally, serve others are all inherent sources of wellbeing.

That is reason enough.

I can only influence those in my immediate surroundings.

To those I am turning toward. Yes, to the others outside this provincial mind set I am indeed turning away as the lyrics state that you posted.

Ask yourself why you feel the need to still be "in relationship" with a status quo that not only has no future but is moving their quite stressed out and unhappy. Mitigating their unhappiness is about as futile as winding back the consequences of human overshoot at this point.

Really, why bother?
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 17:47:09

Ibon wrote:
GHung wrote:
What you speak of reminds me of "On the Turning Away". There is an endless list of things I can't 'mitigate' which still need to be acknowledged, IMO.


At what point along the time line of thousands of posts on the subject of human overshoot do we move from acknowledgement of the problem to recognizing that these endless posts only represent the gravitational pull that the status quo still has on us? You see, 9000 or 12000 or 6000 posts later like many posters on this site you have to suspect this has moved somewhere beyond acknowledgement to some sort of deeper motive that keeps one in orbit around the futility of our dilemma and needing to return daily to share this with others.

Are you going to be any wiser 3000 posts later in a few years? .

So there is no need to frame ones sustainable living based on a motive that one is lessening the damage or even acting symbolically to make a stand against the pathway our modern civilization is taking. We all here recognize a certain futility in mitigation.

The motives to generate your own power, grow your own food, recycle, fix things, live frugally, serve others are all inherent sources of wellbeing.

That is reason enough.

I can only influence those in my immediate surroundings.

To those I am turning toward. Yes, to the others outside this provincial mind set I am indeed turning away as the lyrics state that you posted.

Ask yourself why you feel the need to still be "in relationship" with a status quo that not only has no future but is moving their quite stressed out and unhappy. Mitigating their unhappiness is about as futile as winding back the consequences of human overshoot at this point.

Really, why bother?


But here you are 8O
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 19:24:29

Newfie wrote:Back to topic of 2°. I asked above and no one responded...

It seems we have consensus we will blow through 2°C, what do you do with that knowledge? How does it change your plans, your daily life?


OK, let’s broaden the thinking a bit, sort of blow up the stove pipe. We KNOW (more or less) we will have this change and we can’t stop it. Maybe we are all thinking ...
Eh, 2100, I’ll be dead by then.

What else will occur because if it? What could be the ramifications within say 10 years? Massive migrations within 10 years? Destabilization of Europe? What else? Anything?

No need to get caught with our pants down.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 20:05:14

Newfie wrote:
Newfie wrote:Back to topic of 2°. I asked above and no one responded...

It seems we have consensus we will blow through 2°C, what do you do with that knowledge? How does it change your plans, your daily life?


OK, let’s broaden the thinking a bit, sort of blow up the stove pipe. We KNOW (more or less) we will have this change and we can’t stop it. Maybe we are all thinking ...
Eh, 2100, I’ll be dead by then.

What else will occur because if it? What could be the ramifications within say 10 years? Massive migrations within 10 years? Destabilization of Europe? What else? Anything?

No need to get caught with our pants down.


I posted a youtube about ths a couple years ago from a mathemetician. It turns out climate exihbits a behavior called hysteresus bifurcation, however you spell that. Anyhow the short version is the climate will bounce around pretty much lke it has been forsome unkowable period. Then one day it will snap from current conditions to warm conditions and things will settle back down, except the world average temperature will be say 3C higher than preindustrial, about two higher than today. It all has to do with chaos theory and mathematical attractors, right now climate is still attracted to the icehouse condition. After the snap change climate will be attracted to the 3C warmer world where the Arctic and Greenland were almost ice free but Antarctica was still deep freeze.

It turns out the smooth transition one degree at a time mst people talk about is mostly a myth. We can wiggle up world average a degree or two, or go down the same amount, without much changing. But if we perterb things down far enough we snap back into major glaciation and if we perturb up too much we snap into ice free north/frozen south like we had for 30 million years after Antarctica froze but the north was ice free.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 20:05:53

GHung wrote:
Ibon wrote:
GHung wrote:
What you speak of reminds me of "On the Turning Away". There is an endless list of things I can't 'mitigate' which still need to be acknowledged, IMO.


At what point along the time line of thousands of posts on the subject of human overshoot do we move from acknowledgement of the problem to recognizing that these endless posts only represent the gravitational pull that the status quo still has on us? You see, 9000 or 12000 or 6000 posts later like many posters on this site you have to suspect this has moved somewhere beyond acknowledgement to some sort of deeper motive that keeps one in orbit around the futility of our dilemma and needing to return daily to share this with others.

Are you going to be any wiser 3000 posts later in a few years? .

So there is no need to frame ones sustainable living based on a motive that one is lessening the damage or even acting symbolically to make a stand against the pathway our modern civilization is taking. We all here recognize a certain futility in mitigation.

The motives to generate your own power, grow your own food, recycle, fix things, live frugally, serve others are all inherent sources of wellbeing.

That is reason enough.

I can only influence those in my immediate surroundings.

To those I am turning toward. Yes, to the others outside this provincial mind set I am indeed turning away as the lyrics state that you posted.

Ask yourself why you feel the need to still be "in relationship" with a status quo that not only has no future but is moving their quite stressed out and unhappy. Mitigating their unhappiness is about as futile as winding back the consequences of human overshoot at this point.

Really, why bother?


But here you are 8O


It is late autumn and I am still here. As I have shared with my fellow moderators, I have been extricating myself slowly from all social media and internet activity except for managing bookings in our resort.

I have to also be a bit honest that with very very few exceptions the level of discourse here has declined, open exploration of ideas recognizing the complex nuances replaced by polarized fixed positions. The oxygen has been removed from the room and frankly this place has become somewhat similar to many social media sites. They all seem to have something in common dumbing down to fixed rigid positions.

This very topic which has me engaged with you is really just some of my last few words of wisdom. My advice to all reading this is that the digital venues that have creeped in an replaced our social spaces is toxic.

I want my organic space back fully. I am jealous of it. I no longer want any digital outlets for social interaction. It is just too often too empty and bla bla bla.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 29 Dec 2017, 20:16:42

Newfie wrote:-snip-

No need to get caught with our pants down.


No, but there have been days lately when I thought that would be a welcome change to the routine.

I have fallen into a routine of waiting. Right now, I am waiting for the pool removal guys to give me a completion date. Then I'll wait for the landscapers. Then the numerous waits of selling a house. Then moving. We donated most of the MIL's stuff already, but her house is still furnished. We'll have to donate a lot more just to move in, and in any case we have to move into two bedrooms from three.

Waiting for Doom is a diversion from real waiting for my life to unfold through the next step.
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