vt - "I can't imagine a real peak oil, where high prices fail to increase supply and a decline in supply persists...". I take it you expect oil prices will be high when we reach that magical date of global PO. I see no justification for that assumption. In fact we may have just reached GPO during the same time oil prices crashed. That dynamic thingy again: low oil prices force producers to max production while those same low oil prices inhibit the development of new production. But the period of high oil prices produces increased production that can carry over into the low oil price period. That combined with producers try to max revenue results in what may eventually prove to be GPO: lower oil prices during the period of record breaking oil production rates. And during high oil price periods smart producers deliver less the max production to preserve reserves while still generating acceptable revenue.
Essentially that same confusing dynamic we've seem many times: the time lag factor.