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Is peak oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 12:43:39

enni, your rebuttal is as usual an an argument from authority (Latin: argumentum ad verecundiam), also called an appeal to authority. Or its logical opposite, an argument from autocracy (Latin: argumentum ad vindictivum). So you are a genius and Plant and Rock are idiots? Not an logical argument.

you have not responded to Tanada's essential point: popular elected officials make popular decision to stay in office. That means delivering inexpenisive electricity. Everyone including you want coal. Your behavior proves that. My behavior proves that. And I do have 5 kw of solar on my roof.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 13:47:42

Ecologically minded voters are in the minority and they should stop expecting politicians to do what they want. Politicians serve the lowest-common-denominator, hence the likelihood of a president Trump.

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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 14:44:38

ennui2 wrote:Ecologically minded voters are in the minority and they should stop expecting politicians to do what they want. Politicians serve the lowest-common-denominator, hence the likelihood of a president Trump.

What the hell are you talking about?

Peak oil is not dead, but I guess this thread is.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 14:49:03

ennui is a disgusting troll. He's has no idea what he/she is talking about. And yes the thread is a stupid distraction.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 20 Sep 2016, 14:56:13

SumYunGai wrote:What the hell are you talking about?


Apparently you've been incapable of following the thread's tangent. Not my fault your neurons fail to fire.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby harrisonlw » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 19:58:38

The thread isn't dead, much as some want it to be.

Peak demand is starting to get more attention as the real issue. It is the proverbial nail in the coffin for the doomsday scenarios wrought by peak oil. Interestingly, the oil industry and doomers find common ground in their opposition to peak oil demand.

The ageing of the global population (shrinking labour force), economic growth shifting to services and away from industrialisation and the improvements in energy efficiency should see demand for energy peak sooner than expected.
And that assumes that current trends merely continue i.e. without much state intervention and no significant tech breakthrough. Tech developments will benefit from the gradual cessation of FF subsidies and increased investment in renewable energy.

And I don't believe that investment will remain coupled to oil price movements post-COP 21.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 20:16:15

harrisonlw wrote:Interestingly, the oil industry and doomers find common ground in their opposition to peak oil demand.

As ignorant and insulting as any shit the trolls toss here. Yes, I am a doomer now, after much study. And no, I am not an oil-industry flack. I have as much interest in and love for that business as your average American commuter. I assume that includes you.

You know squat about economic substitution, global demographics, industrial entropy, limits of electrification and renewable infrastructure, IPCC-5, technological development curves. Or anything. You have been here for eight posts, joined no conversations. Grow some humility.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 21 Sep 2016, 20:59:14

There isn't much story left to tell.

The major oil companies are going to quickly go broke mining 'shale oil' because there is nothing else left and then...

The Dieoff.

The Boneheads at Shell who believe there is going to be a natural gas era or the frauds in the universities with their "renewables" cuckoo crap are not only "Not even wrong'....they are 'Not even dreamers"
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby harrisonlw » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 19:14:25

Jesus. I really wanted this thread to be meaningful but some people just cannot help themselves.

Pstarr, your views are respected by approximately three people on this forum. You disregard technical, scientific and academic evidence because it doesn't support your preconceived views. The call for humility is an interesting one too, considering that you asserted that I know 'squat' about these things in the same post. The hypocrisy is astounding.

But let's say I am wrong. As someone who presumably knows more about these things, could you please inform me where I went wrong in my assessment of changing demographics, economic substitution, energy efficiency and climate change negotiations? This is a forum after all. I am happy to be proven wrong.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 19:21:32

harrisonlw wrote:Jesus. I really wanted this thread to be meaningful but some people just cannot help themselves.

If you really wanted this thread to be meaningful, you should have chosen a better title. LOL. This thread is a troll.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby harrisonlw » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 19:25:37

Wasn't a statement, hence the question mark. My view is that the fast crash and the slow crash are unlikely to come to pass, and that we will transition relatively smoothly to renewables (with a slightly different economic system eventually, one that doesn't rely on perpetual growth in consumption).

Fair point though. I just wanted it to be the forum-equivalent of clickbait and to really engage everyone.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 19:30:36

Harrison your wrong about Pstarr. He is a valuable senior poster on this site and that is in so small part due to his acumen in many offshoots of peak oil. Your casual disregard for his knowledge is more illustrative of your standing than his. Where is your solid scholarly defense of Renewable energy and such? Me, Pstarr and some others here would like to see it. For the numbers do not add up. Too little energy, too intermittent, too late and too difficult and time/energy/money onerous to scale up at this point. In case you were not paying attention we are already in the throes of the peak oil dynamic. The Oil industry is struggling as is the general Economy and bad synergy is getting revved up. But some cannot or will not notice.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby harrisonlw » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 19:59:17

I should've been more specific. I meant pstarr's views on peak oil and its application to contemporary oil production, not its offshoots, whatever that means. Which is precisely why I've asked him to correct me on my views. Instead of being ultra-sensitive to opposing views and disregarding technical, scientific and academic evidence, pstarr could bring to bear his acumen and change my mind. My standing is irrelevant to me, though I will say that standing is decidedly subjective. I'm interested in facts and predictions made using evidence, something lacking in this forum.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by solid scholarly defence. If you'd like me to author a systematic review of the academic literature on renewable energy, you'll be disappointed. I read papers in peer-reviewed academic journals and articles written by academics and industry experts. I endeavour to contribute these things in the relevant threads.

So, onlooker, and I do mean this sincerely mate, what did I miss in regards to being in the throes of peak oil? Are you referring to the ETP model and its prediction of a lowering oil price? I don't know much about it but it looks to be discussed a fair bit and seems relevant to this thread so fire away.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 20:09:37

harrisonlw wrote:The thread isn't dead, much as some want it to be.

Peak demand is starting to get more attention as the real issue. It is the proverbial nail in the coffin for the doomsday scenarios wrought by peak oil. Interestingly, the oil industry and doomers find common ground in their opposition to peak oil demand.

The ageing of the global population (shrinking labour force), economic growth shifting to services and away from industrialisation and the improvements in energy efficiency should see demand for energy peak sooner than expected.
And that assumes that current trends merely continue i.e. without much state intervention and no significant tech breakthrough. Tech developments will benefit from the gradual cessation of FF subsidies and increased investment in renewable energy.

And I don't believe that investment will remain coupled to oil price movements post-COP 21.


Most of the global population isn't experiencing population ageing. Also, most of it has not yet experienced industrialization to be able to move to service industries. For that to happen, we will need several more earths.

Efficiency (which in capitalist systems leads not to conservation but to the drive for more consumption) and any technofixes won't add more earths. Neither will increased credit.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 20:17:29

harrisonlw wrote:Jesus. I really wanted this thread to be meaningful but some people just cannot help themselves.

Pstarr, your views are respected by approximately three people on this forum. You disregard technical, scientific and academic evidence because it doesn't support your preconceived views. The call for humility is an interesting one too, considering that you asserted that I know 'squat' about these things in the same post. The hypocrisy is astounding.

But let's say I am wrong. As someone who presumably knows more about these things, could you please inform me where I went wrong in my assessment of changing demographics, economic substitution, energy efficiency and climate change negotiations? This is a forum after all. I am happy to be proven wrong.


The changes in demographics are offset by large numbers of young people in poor countries, and which make up most of the world's population. Resource and energy use have to continue rising in these countries for the global economy to reach full industrialization. For that to happen, up to four more planets will be needed.

Economic substitution isn't helping because the substitutes have lower energy quantities and quality. Several of them even require oil and various minerals.

Energy efficiency in a global capitalist economy doesn't lead to conservation but to more consumption. That's because investments are made in such in return for greater productivity, and thus more sales of goods and services produced, and in turn more profits and returns on investment.

That's why climate change negotiations are at best lukewarm. They involve cuts in increases. That's because most countries don't want to reverse economic growth, or need to back up credit created to ensure such. Ironically, many of them even need faster growth to ensure the three points above, i.e., population aging due to more prosperity (which requires higher ecological footprints per capita), more funds to deal with lower energy returns, lag time, and transition costs to other sources of energy, and expanding consumer markets to gain profits from efficiency.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 20:20:02

harrisonlw wrote:Wasn't a statement, hence the question mark. My view is that the fast crash and the slow crash are unlikely to come to pass, and that we will transition relatively smoothly to renewables (with a slightly different economic system eventually, one that doesn't rely on perpetual growth in consumption).

Fair point though. I just wanted it to be the forum-equivalent of clickbait and to really engage everyone.


A fast crash already took place in 2008, and what we've been seeing since then is equivalent to a slow crash, i.e., weak global economic growth, volatile commodity and financial markets, and more reports on feedback loops caused by global warming.

Much of the engagement that you want has been discussed thoroughly in various threads. You should probably go over them first before posting again in this one.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 20:22:27

harrisonlw wrote:I should've been more specific. I meant pstarr's views on peak oil and its application to contemporary oil production, not its offshoots, whatever that means. Which is precisely why I've asked him to correct me on my views. Instead of being ultra-sensitive to opposing views and disregarding technical, scientific and academic evidence, pstarr could bring to bear his acumen and change my mind. My standing is irrelevant to me, though I will say that standing is decidedly subjective. I'm interested in facts and predictions made using evidence, something lacking in this forum.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by solid scholarly defence. If you'd like me to author a systematic review of the academic literature on renewable energy, you'll be disappointed. I read papers in peer-reviewed academic journals and articles written by academics and industry experts. I endeavour to contribute these things in the relevant threads.

So, onlooker, and I do mean this sincerely mate, what did I miss in regards to being in the throes of peak oil? Are you referring to the ETP model and its prediction of a lowering oil price? I don't know much about it but it looks to be discussed a fair bit and seems relevant to this thread so fire away.


The four points you raised have been discussed readily in various threads in this forum.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 20:40:04

Bah, more pseudo claptrap around here. The last string holding this gong show from doom is shale oil and the main shale oil hucksters (texas tea and coffeeguyzz) at

http://peakoilbarrel.com/mexico-china-a ... /#comments

are well beyond desperation. They are now truly pathetic (read in bold):

texas tea says:
09/22/2016 at 6:26 pm

I suppose “facts” are in the eye of the beholder. I have posted numerous articles from independent analysis from Wood Mackenzie, RYSTAD ENERGY, and the above article from IHS Markit, these companies have tremendous capabilities and research departments with a world wide footprints who sell at a profit, independent research. All of which shows the trend as highlighted in the article. That is, the cost per BOE of LTO has come down very significantly. Those reason given are the same reason cost have come down in past bust cycles. They are real, they will continue as long and market forces require cost containment to be continued. I suppose those who are paying for this research could just come here and read this blog for free. But in the real world you get what you pay for.

Those who do not understand or refuse to except that US domestic oil and gas exploration industry has forever been changed, will go the way of the dodo bird.

Moores law can be applied to oil and gas drilling and completion technology. More production less cost…just the facts!
Reply

Coffeeguyzz says:
09/22/2016 at 7:51 pm

TT

Although Eclipse’s Purple Hayes well received well earned recognition for the 18,000’+ lateral and 124 stages, the cost reduction versus recoverable resource seemed completely overlooked amidst all the technical hoopla.
Specifically, this well had a 30% lower cost per lateral foot than comparable Utica wells.

That’s huge.

As this was the first of three Utica ‘superlaterals’ from Eclipse (the others are planned 19,000’/20,000′), cost may drop further as familiarity takes hold.

The Permian and Niobrara operators may continue to extend the length of their laterals also if results continue to be positive.

In addition to the speed of the drilling process – mile a day drilling is becoming routine in the Appalachian Basin, control of the fracture process via divertors, slickwater, sand, and – increasingly – real time microseismic measurements, is enabling much higher production from just two years ago.

Eclipse installed hardware for gas lift for long term recovery optimization.
In the Bakken, Continental (I believe), just spudded three wells with 15,000′ laterals under Lake Sakakawea.

The ongoing innovation continues apace.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 21:23:53

SHOCKING NEWS UPDATE: Oil Driller Mike Shellman has just made the startling statement that the price of oil will never go back above $50. The etp model is correct and BW Hill will soon be a star.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/mexico-china-a ... ent-581796

Mike says:
09/22/2016 at 9:03 pm

El no ve nada, HR. You and I both know that the shale oil industry is woefully unprofitable and therefore not sustainable. Anybody with an ounce of sense knows this. Making predictions about the price of oil, and the role shale oil will have in our energy future, without regard for costs, and debt, is foolish. Deseo a este amigo tomaría el Texas fuera de su nombre. Su embarazosa. I am sorry for my bad Spanish.

I hope you are hanging in there…our task now, guys like you and me, is to make it work at 50 dollars a barrel. We can do that. We have to.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 21:24:45

Resource and energy use have to continue rising in these countries for the global economy to reach full industrialization. For that to happen, up to four more planets will be needed.

Well said Ralfy as always your input is a good primer for those wishing to know about limits to growth and its nexus to our economic system depending on growth
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