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PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 18:43:11

http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 20:27:07

Ah, Gail Tverberg. Such a compelling appeal to authority.

The doomerverse keeps shrinking and becoming more and more insular and incestuous.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 21:52:11

Doom is easy to see...examine the spectrum at both poles.

One dude selling an equation for $40
Two dudes with internet "jobs"

And everyone else a deep believer in Modern Money Theory (Unlimited debt)

You'll all soon be burning yak dung and eating yak burgers.
You have until end of 2022 to live on earth. Then you're dead meat. Bye.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 06:11:31

StarvingLion wrote:Doom is easy to see...examine the spectrum at both poles.

One dude selling an equation for $40
Two dudes with internet "jobs"

And everyone else a deep believer in Modern Money Theory (Unlimited debt)

You'll all soon be burning yak dung and eating yak burgers.


You mean like we did ten years ago? No wait....
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 08:49:56

Cog wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:Doom is easy to see...examine the spectrum at both poles.

One dude selling an equation for $40
Two dudes with internet "jobs"

And everyone else a deep believer in Modern Money Theory (Unlimited debt)

You'll all soon be burning yak dung and eating yak burgers.


You mean like we did ten years ago? No wait....


Ten years ago,, when the Fed did this? ....

Image

..... so you and the other parasites could skim off the top?
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 21:18:50

You all will be dead by end of 2022. Thats when US Conventional Oil does a nose dive from a manageable decline rate to over 7% a year. Nothing matters except the good stuff (conventional oil). YOu won't have any access to ME oil because Scamerica gave away its industrial base for fake money. Nothing can prop up that worthless junk currency called the dollar at that point. Then you all starve instantly while you try to munch on your silly batteries and pseudointellectual banter.

No, Ghung, hiding out in a Spider Hole won't save you. It didn't work for Saddam Hussein and it won't work for you either.
You have until end of 2022 to live on earth. Then you're dead meat. Bye.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 21:40:05

i'm actually surprised starving lion can type on a keyboard that is obviously saturated with slobber.
Good God man, get a life. Do you actually think anyone hear listens to your ridiculous uneducated banter?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 22:36:30

StarvingLion wrote:You all will be dead by end of 2022. Thats when US Conventional Oil does a nose dive from a manageable decline rate to over 7% a year. Nothing matters except the good stuff (conventional oil). YOu won't have any access to ME oil because Scamerica gave away its industrial base for fake money. Nothing can prop up that worthless junk currency called the dollar at that point. Then you all starve instantly while you try to munch on your silly batteries and pseudointellectual banter.

No, Ghung, hiding out in a Spider Hole won't save you. It didn't work for Saddam Hussein and it won't work for you either.

All dead by 2022? Have to file that prediction away so we can rub your nose in it in four years. You might be one of the first to go of course but in that case we will carve "he was right" on your head stone.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 23:02:37

StarvingLion wrote:.....

No, Ghung, hiding out in a Spider Hole won't save you. It didn't work for Saddam Hussein and it won't work for you either.


But I like my spider hole. Four dogs, a cat, a happy plump wife and a warm stove. What could be better?
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 23:08:23

GHung wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:.....

No, Ghung, hiding out in a Spider Hole won't save you. It didn't work for Saddam Hussein and it won't work for you either.


But I like my spider hole. Four dogs, a cat, a happy plump wife and a warm stove. What could be better?

Perhaps a skinny horny wife?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 23:08:54

So here we are 10 years after the initial 'peak oil' threat. Sure gas prices back then for a while were at $4 to $5/gallon. However now it's settled at $2.70/gallon for 2-3 years now? I guess nobody back then saw the natural gas boom that will go on for another 20-30 years. In 20 years we'll finally be able to get at the methane hydrates and that will give us 200x the fossil fuel energy of the natural gas boom! Of course gotta make sure we don't trigger the clathrate gun and destroy all life.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 23:12:08

vtsnowedin wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:You all will be dead by end of 2022. Thats when US Conventional Oil does a nose dive from a manageable decline rate to over 7% a year. Nothing matters except the good stuff (conventional oil). YOu won't have any access to ME oil because Scamerica gave away its industrial base for fake money. Nothing can prop up that worthless junk currency called the dollar at that point. Then you all starve instantly while you try to munch on your silly batteries and pseudointellectual banter.

No, Ghung, hiding out in a Spider Hole won't save you. It didn't work for Saddam Hussein and it won't work for you either.

All dead by 2022? Have to file that prediction away so we can rub your nose in it in four years. You might be one of the first to go of course but in that case we will carve "he was right" on your head stone.


Yeah I'm pretty sure this forum was filled with "you will all be dead by 2013" posts in 2008. They never learn! I feel we are on the verge of a Golden Age like 1950-1980!
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 09 Feb 2018, 23:27:59

Serial_Worrier wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:You all will be dead by end of 2022. Thats when US Conventional Oil does a nose dive from a manageable decline rate to over 7% a year. Nothing matters except the good stuff (conventional oil). YOu won't have any access to ME oil because Scamerica gave away its industrial base for fake money. Nothing can prop up that worthless junk currency called the dollar at that point. Then you all starve instantly while you try to munch on your silly batteries and pseudointellectual banter.

No, Ghung, hiding out in a Spider Hole won't save you. It didn't work for Saddam Hussein and it won't work for you either.

All dead by 2022? Have to file that prediction away so we can rub your nose in it in four years. You might be one of the first to go of course but in that case we will carve "he was right" on your head stone.


Yeah I'm pretty sure this forum was filled with "you will all be dead by 2013" posts in 2008. They never learn! I feel we are on the verge of a Golden Age like 1950-1980!

I don't see any golden age, just humanity muddling through but not doing as well as they could have if more brains were applied to the problems we face.
Maybe a drop in human population from seven to five billion but that is a long way from "all dead".
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 03:18:25

Jim Rickards has been saying that 2018 is the year of the new financial crisis, the year when the debt bubble implodes.

The stock market is tanking and the Fed seems to sit back and maintain its QT policy.

The world has gone massively in debt since 2000 during years of high oil prices. It took QE & ZIRP and the thrashing of the CB's balance sheets to manage the high oil prices from 2010 to 2014.

The debt will turn into a massive burden when asset prices start to deflate. The U.S government has made a statement: Don't Panic
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 09:06:31

They never learn! I feel we are on the verge of a Golden Age like 1950-1980!
I am not sure on what possibly you can base that on. when humanity is busily underming the balance and functionality of this planet in terms of supporting life, depleting its non renewable resources and overstretching renewable resources by further populating the planet . Oh and destabilizing a cornerstone of habilitability being the climate. But all those immersed in "the feel good" narrative based on little empirical data, by all means continue fantasizing.
The Big Economic Plunge is approaching
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 10:32:27

Yoshua wrote:Jim Rickards has been saying


Show me a doomer and I'll show someone who starts his post with "[INSERT PROPHET HERE] has been saying..."

Also...

Show me a doomer and I'll show you someone who forms conclusions based on short-term trends rather than letting things shake out first.

For instance, go back in the archives and look at the reaction to the market selloff in late 2015/early 2016.

Sound familiar?
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 11:44:26

Another prophet, White frm chief economist at BIS:

"All the market indicators right now look very similar to what we saw before the Lehman crisis"

Only this time the debt to GDP ratio is worse and the net energy from oil production is lower. The stock market started to fall apart after oil prices hit only 66 USD.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 12:05:44

Yoshua wrote:Another prophet, White frm chief economist at BIS:

"All the market indicators right now look very similar to what we saw before the Lehman crisis"

Only this time the debt to GDP ratio is worse and the net energy from oil production is lower. The stock market started to fall apart after oil prices hit only 66 USD.


The breakdown: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/ ... 2008-crash

...... It has the makings of a perfect storm. At best, the implication is that yields on 10-year Treasuries - the world's benchmark price of money - will spike enough to send tremors through credit markets.

The edifice of inflated equity and asset markets is built on the premise that interest rates will remain pinned to the floor.

The latest stability report by the US Treasury's Office of Financial Research warned that a 100 basis point rate rise would slash US$1.2 trillion of value from the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, with further losses once junk bonds, fixed-rate mortgages, and derivatives are included.

The global fall-out could be violent. Credit in dollars beyond US jurisdiction has risen fivefold in 15 years to over US$10 trillion. "This is a very big number. As soon as the world gets into trouble, a lot of people are going to have trouble servicing that dollar debt," said White. Borrowers would suffer the double shock of a rising dollar, and rising rates.

While banks now have high capital buffers, the risk has migrated: to investment funds concentrated in crowded trades. The share of equities traded in "dark pools" outside the exchanges has mushroomed to 33 per cent.

............


That was a few weeks ago, before equities started their extreme volatility and decline, as Treasuries began creeping up. Just sayin'......
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 12:06:21

Yoshua wrote:Another prophet, White frm chief economist at BIS:

"All the market indicators right now look very similar to what we saw before the Lehman crisis"

Only this time the debt to GDP ratio is worse and the net energy from oil production is lower. The stock market started to fall apart after oil prices hit only 66 USD.

It is an impossible situation.  The financial gurus are pointing out that the markets are jittery because of how overvalued the Equity market is and how the relatively low oil prices has revved up the Economy which raises the specter of higher interest rates to curb inflation.  So this market correction is now the dynamic of an overall Economy that cannot tolerate too much of a good thing as interest rates must stay rock bottom to allow financial investors to fund whole industries as well as this ponzi ballon markets.  But a depressed Economy contrasting with an overinflated Market is seemingly the new normal.  For the Markets and the consumers need a low oil price and low interest rates to have any positive economic gains and benefits.
The Big Economic Plunge is approaching
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 10 Feb 2018, 19:03:54

https://seekingalpha.com/article/413709 ... bal-wealth

World Debt Is Rising Nearly 3 Times As Fast As Total Global Wealth
The Big Economic Plunge is approaching
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