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PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 13:31:29

Flying fish? On the ferry to Catalina Island, you see thousands of these:
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Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 13:58:35

onlooker wrote:https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Might-Not-Last-Long.html
The shocking ramp up in production over the past decade has mostly occurred in these sweet spots, a trend that was accentuated during the market downturn beginning in 2014.

Less Sweet spots and WTI going down
The Shale boom becoming a Bust
http://markets.businessinsider.com/comm ... e?type=wti

Always pretend like any short term blip is a major trend. :roll:

You seem to be confused about economics again. If oil production is falling and will be falling due to "shale boom becoming a bust" -- that would cause a strong price INCREASE, due to less anticipated supply.

If you're going to sell an oil bear market story, at least try to make it somewhat logical.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 14:55:52

It is logical in so far as Shale goes. This was never going to be a long term enterprise
The core areas, or “sweet spots,” typically make up just 20 percent of a given shale play. When shale drillers move beyond the core, they tend to post less impressive production figures.


And with the oil price going down that will further debilitate Producers. Oh but of course don't worry, the price will go up. Never mind that that will deflate the Economy and with it the "booming" stock market. And that the sweet spots are running out. You guys just don't get that the good old days where economic policy and supply/demand balancing via price solved economic woes are gone never to return. But I understand that a cold turkey epiphany is not for everyone 8)
The Big Economic Plunge is approaching
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 15:20:56

shortonoil wrote:The only emotions involved in a bridge collapse are after the bridge falls down.


Another day, another analogy.

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shortonoil wrote:The only question now is whether mankind's bridge to survival bends slowly into the abyss below, or fractures catastrophically.


The only question I'm thinking of now is whether you'll ever pay up on your bet...
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 16:29:20

onlooker wrote:It is logical in so far as Shale goes. This was never going to be a long term enterprise
The core areas, or “sweet spots,” typically make up just 20 percent of a given shale play. When shale drillers move beyond the core, they tend to post less impressive production figures.


And with the oil price going down that will further debilitate Producers. Oh but of course don't worry, the price will go up. Never mind that that will deflate the Economy and with it the "booming" stock market. And that the sweet spots are running out. You guys just don't get that the good old days where economic policy and supply/demand balancing via price solved economic woes are gone never to return. But I understand that a cold turkey epiphany is not for everyone 8)

Do wake me when you can credibly show that the basic rules of economics are repealed and the wishes of fast crash doomers who are wrong year after year are magically the way things work.

Meantime, it's all the fantasy living in your club's echo chamber, so be sure and enjoy it.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 16:33:21

Oh but of course don't worry, the price will go up. Never mind that that will deflate the Economy and with it the "booming" stock market.


well from history we know that oil price and inflation are delinked.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 16:55:34

wsj-oil-price-rescession-chart.jpg
wsj-oil-price-rescession-chart.jpg (79.53 KiB) Viewed 1707 times
What we do know is that from past experience when oil prices go up recession soon follows
The Big Economic Plunge is approaching
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 17:00:39

onlooker wrote:What we do know is that from past experience when oil prices go up recession soon follows


You mean like during the dot com crash or while we were recovering from 2008?
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 17:10:52

What we do know is that from past experience when oil prices go up recession soon follows


back to this nonsense again?

oil prices dropped in 2008 because the markets fell apart as a consequence of the liquidity crisis. You are trying to have the tail wagging the dog. Read an article or two for crying out loud.
oil prices rose from their low in the $40/bbl range in 2009 to over a $100/bbl in 2011 and stayed there until mid 2014.....guess what? No global recession.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 17:35:46

So you don't think this had something to do with the rebound in 2011
And you don't think they're will be consequences to this Great Debt bubble? Probably not. Maybe this will expand your thinking
The Great Debt Bubble of 2011
https://www.cato.org/publications/comme ... ubble-2011
Oh and my chart goes back to the 70's with this correlation so mum about that?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 17:45:55

onlooker wrote:
AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:Right on cue Short as of right now , the DOW is almost down 1,000 points!


Last I looked Short's random number generator didn't randomly predict the DJIA. Did he invent another random number generator to handle that? And if so, I would be willing to bet him that his is wrong...but I won't..because he welshs on bets.

The determinations of the Hills Group is not terribly controversial or far fetched for those of us honestly looking at the numbers and trends.


You mean, BELIEVERS...like yourself, can't see the nonsense being shoveled in their direction. Because those of us with science backgrounds and even more importantly, experience in the fields in question, have already mentioned where and why their work fails, and as we now know, they can't even win a coin flip bet on its usefulness. You should stick to these FACTS onlooker, they will serve you better in the future than just believing in whatever rationalization you happen to need on a particular day.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 17:51:14

But I understand that a cold turkey epiphany is not for everyone


And, that is where it is going. Everything reverts to the mean: the average 58 year oil production rate has been 57.63 mb/d; the average price has been $25.71. It will be the point where the energy supplied from oil no longer commands the value of the dollar. It will be the point where this system of economics ends.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 18:03:10

onlooker wrote:And you don't think they're will be consequences to this Great Debt bubble?


There probably will be. But the track record of doomers here in calling the how/what/when/why is piss-poor. Reaching back to a link from 7 years ago doesn't really add anything to the discussion.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 19:13:46

But the track record of doomers here in calling the how/what/when/why is piss-poor.


Wrong again! You sort of make a career out of that, don't you?

The information that we now have informs us that it will be in the early 2020's when the system cracks. A simple balance sheet informs one that debt is capital consumed that is not being replaced. The reserves that are being consumed, and not being replaced is a good example. Your job of trying to convince the world that the Fairy God Mother is real is going to get impossibly difficult in the very near future.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 19:31:34

shortonoil wrote:
But I understand that a cold turkey epiphany is not for everyone


And, that is where it is going. Everything reverts to the mean: the average 58 year oil production rate has been 57.63 mb/d; the average price has been $25.71. It will be the point where the energy supplied from oil no longer commands the value of the dollar. It will be the point where this system of economics ends.

For the bazillionth time, you ignore inflation. Over a 58 year time horizon, inflation matters a LOT, even though you constantly ignore it, including in your ETP nonsense.

https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inf ... _Chart.asp

In real 2017ish dollars, the average price of oil has been MUCH higher than $26ish for the past 58 years, and especially the past 4 decades.

So even IF "everything reverts to the mean" (total nonsense in terms of prices of consumer goods or commodities, long term) if oil reverted to the long term average price, it would be more like where it is now (about $60, WTI) than your $26ish nonsensical figure. (Hint: 60ish years of inflation isn't magically going away).

Chanting nonsense and ignoring real world economic reality like inflation is a disastrous way to make economic predictions. Not that you'd have the sense or integrity to admit it.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 20:34:16

Chanting nonsense and ignoring real world economic reality like inflation is a disastrous way to make economic predictions.


A White Knight will be very likely riding to our rescue. The price for humanity's salvation will be the complete and total degradation of the environment, its total subservience, and its slavery. Earth will be stripped to the bone.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Feb 2018, 20:39:38

shortonoil wrote:The information that we now have


There is no we. There is only B. Hill.

shortonoil wrote: informs us that it will be in the early 2020's when the system cracks.


That far off? I thought ETP doom predicted sooner.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Darian S » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 03:20:16

Whats the response to the inflation counter?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 05:12:06

A discussion on a historical collapse (possibly lasting 100 years) with parallels to today. It begs the question of whether or not 100 years = a fast collapse.

A BBC article on
Economic collapse: The real message of the fall of Troy
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42864071
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 08 Feb 2018, 13:08:47

shortonoil wrote:
Chanting nonsense and ignoring real world economic reality like inflation is a disastrous way to make economic predictions.


A White Knight will be very likely riding to our rescue. The price for humanity's salvation will be the complete and total degradation of the environment, its total subservience, and its slavery. Earth will be stripped to the bone.

And, as per usual, you don't address the point. Of course, to do so would show how fatally flawed both the MAP and the theory that the cost of BTU's are spiraling out of control is.

Nice starving-lion type dodging, but your credibility score is still zero.
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