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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 13:24:23

kublikhan wrote:
pstarr wrote:The oil does not reach the consumer. The oil is used up pumping the oil. Do you get that yet? It's the reason Spain, Italy, and so many other national economies are in decline. They don't get the oil. The frackors get the oil. SA gets the oil. Wealthy white American guys (and their Chinese product slaves) get the oil. The rest don't get the oil.
I get that is what you believe. However do you understand that if you want to make a convincing argument you have to do more than simply state your opinion? You have to back it up. You have failed to do this. All you are doing here is pontificating. When I took the counterpoint to this argument earlier in the thread, I backed up my argument with actual numbers. I showed how the US oil industry only consumes a small fraction of oil products compared to other consumers. I did the same thing with Saudi Arabia. I also linked to a more rigorous analysis on this topic. It also disproved your argument. Instead of offering a rebuttal to those arguments you are simply pontificating again. Well I'm sorry Pstarr but that doesn't cut it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. You present none.

BS. You dug up a selected database of limited scope and cut off the energy expense boundaries where it suited your argument. I don't get to counter the BS because no agency actually measures consumption and function, rather they simply conflate consumption with production. So there is a limited data set I can extrapolate from. So that is more BS.

I really don't enjoy kicking the same dead horse with you. It stinks. Have a nice day. :evil:
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 13:40:08

pstarr wrote:BS. You dug up a selected database of limited scope and cut off the energy expense boundaries where it suited your argument. I don't get to counter the BS because no agency actually measures consumption and function, rather they simply conflate consumption with production. So there is a limited data set I can extrapolate from. So that is more BS.

I really don't enjoy kicking the same dead horse with you. It stinks. Have a nice day.
Now that is some BS if I have ever read it. Apparently you simply "forgot" that I also provided metrics of actual fuel sales. Not some imaginary conflated numbers. And if you have a problem with my boundary conditions then use your own. I am more than happy to consider them. However you didn't do that. You went to hide on ignore. Just as you are now. Next time you feel the need to cry: "Why can't you see what I see?" Remember this answer: "Every time I ask you to justify your position you run and hide on ignore."
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 16:04:14

pstarr wrote:no agency actually measures consumption and function, rather they simply conflate consumption with production. So there is a limited data set I can extrapolate from.


If the data is incomplete then you can't just plug in self-serving numbers.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 19:34:47

The amount of oil extracted from the earth inconceivable huge. So too is the oil lost in that production. It's difficult for most folks to comprehend. And that lost oil is sure not measured . . . not by any official organization, or industry shill.


Part of the reason that it is not measured is that it is very difficult to do using only the rule book that was written by the industry. Reservoir engineering was developed to pump out wells, and it has been assumed that it should apply to everything. It is a technique that works amazing well on a well or field, but when extended to two million wells the error margin grows exponentially. There is more than a 50% difference in the estimated URR of the world's reserves even when it is calculated by very good, and competent analysis using traditional approaches.

There are a number of approaches that can be applied; a thermodynamic route being only one. Engineering has invested two centuries into developing such methods. They are, however, rarely used to determine the state of the world's oil supply; even though it is the most valuable commodity known. This biased, and myopic view will probably result in the world getting blinded sided by the coming end of the oil age. Our own prejudices will be our downfall.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 20:04:09

kublikhan wrote:
ralfy wrote:The question isn't whether it's going to end abruptly but whether or not there will be enough of it to meet the growing demand of a global capitalist system. That was explained to you in another thread.
That wasn't the question Ralfy. Here is what onlooker said:

onlooker wrote:basic economic supply/demand dynamics break down when dealing with the fundamental driver of economic activity being energy ie. Oil
And my response: Prove your case. Still waiting on that.


You can scroll up and look at the global consumption chart you shared. Notice that consumption rose steadily even though prices soared and then plummeted. Given "basic economics," demand should have adjusted to prices.

As for the point that what I said isn't the question, notice that "abruptly" is used twice in the post that I quoted.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 20:06:23

shortonoil wrote:
The oil does not reach the consumer. The oil is used up pumping the oil.


By our calculations the extra oil needed to pump oil is now 1.21 mb/d per year.
Out of 98 mb/d per year actual production that seems a quite reasonable figure. That is a long way from the 50% figure you keep throwing out.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 21:00:00

Part of the reason that it is not measured is that it is very difficult to do using only the rule book that was written by the industry. Reservoir engineering was developed to pump out wells, and it has been assumed that it should apply to everything.


What a load of bollicks. We measure each and every drop of oil or gas or electricity used to produce a barrel of oil. When companies run economic forecasts for a project all of this is taken into account simply because you have to pay for it, there is no free lunch as some twits here seem to think. Rules around accounting make it impossible to somehow "hide" energy use as pstarr seems to think happens.

When a barrel of oil is produced all the energy that is required to produce it is accounted for by cost. The cost for fuel, the cost to produce steel, the cost to construct bits or drill pipe or casing, the cost to truck water or fluids to and from the site, the cost for manpower and on and on. All of the costs to produce oil and gas are captured in the annual SEC submissions by public companies.

If you can point to some energy that costs nothing that goes into the equation then have at it. I'm pretty sure it doesn't exist given someone somewhere would have figured out how to charge for it.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 23:43:24

kublikhan wrote:
pstarr wrote:I could post these scary graphs all day long :? Want more?
All of those graphs are trumped by this one:

Image


Might as well do one of 2 things, 1) shut down the website because of the gang here clinging to the old peak oil you can't even see on that graph having been discredited or 2) limit all conversation to the whining about the next peak oil and which randomly fit curve best describes peak oil number....I forget which one we are on now, but whatever one that is.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 23:52:30

When it comes to capitalist systems, there is no "us" or "we" when it comes to ownership of resources, just as there is no "us" or "we" in reference to the military.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 08:35:33

What a load of bollicks. We measure each and every drop of oil or gas or electricity used to produce a barrel of oil.


How many drops of oil did it take to replace the shoe leather that the rough necks wore off drilling the well, or that was spent on military protection, or was spent on judicial action, or the raods the industry used, or the gas put in the RRC employee's car to get to work? You don't have a clue!

The simple matter of the fact is that the world is burning 34 Gb of oil a year, and discovering less than 8. Water cut is increasing. Reserves are not being replaced, and the cost of extracting what is already there is going up. Then again maybe the oil business has a magic wand? The Torah says that the Jews are the chosen people; it forgot to mention EXXON!
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 08:55:47

Oh no shorty is predicting doom again. Best run for the hills, buy gold, and by the way buy his newletter.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 08:56:13

The oil production has increased since 2005 but exports have been flat. The increase in demand is coming from the oil producers...not the oil consumers.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 09:01:53

You don't have a clue!


And neither do you. The EIA informs us that total US energy spending was $1.13 trillion or 6.2% of GDP in 2015.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec1_17.pdf

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https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32432
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 09:26:54

The oil consumers went broke in 2008 when the oil price spiked and crashed the economy. Now the oil producers are going broke after the oil price collapse. This is not exactly a happy scenario.

Since the energy cost to produce petroleum is increasing, the rising oil price might not even benefit the oil producers when they are the ones who consume increasing amounts of energy.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 09:29:56

Its as if the sub-prime mortgage crisis never happened. It was all oil price. LOL
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 09:32:49

Cog wrote:Its as if the sub-prime mortgage crisis never happened. It was all oil price. LOL


The bottom fell out of the economy. It would make sense that the weaker die first.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 09:57:04

The oil production has increased since 2005 but exports have been flat. The increase in demand is coming from the oil producers...not the oil consumers.



You have to be pretty thick to think that all internal consumption is by oil and gas producers. Energy consumption by the general populace is rising....vehicle sales are increasing, gasoline sales are strong. And energy efficiency amongst the producers is higher, not lower than it was a number of years ago simply due to the fact they have had to cut costs. As a consequence, they drill faster (less fuel oil spent), and there is a large movement away from fuel for power generation to electricity and in places like TX much of that is from wind generation. I've shown the calculation a number of times here, drill rigs do not consume a lot of fuel, certainly not in comparison to the vehicle fleet out there owned by the public.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 10:08:14

How many drops of oil did it take to replace the shoe leather that the rough necks wore off drilling the well, or that was spent on military protection, or was spent on judicial action, or the raods the industry used, or the gas put in the RRC employee's car to get to work? You don't have a clue!


That would all be accounted for in the form of capital spent. If a rough neck needs shoes he either buys them himself for which he is handsomely compensated by the company or the company buys them for him both of which are accounted for. Military protection isn't free, it is paid for and under US and Canada laws it must be reported now and of course, it has to be captured in accounting. Any judicial action requires lawyers and various fees which also must be accounted for. Do you think the gas people put in there cars, whoever they are, comes from some secret stash nobody knows about? Of course not, they buy it like everyone else. If rig hands fill up with diesel on the site, that diesel was paid for by the company, they didn't somehow cook it up behind closed doors so someone like you or pstarr wouldn't see it, they sold oil to a refinery who in turn created diesel and sold it to a retailer who in turn sold it to the oil company. The roads in most countries are paid for by taxes. Oil companies pay royalties and taxes and in many places oil companies build their own roads which of course are accounted for. As I said above, every last item that is used as energy for oil and gas production is paid for somewhere and that is accounted for. The fact you don't understand this says a lot about the ETP model.

So I'm afraid it is you who does not have a clue. But apparently, you have lesser minds like pstarr convinced you really understand the oil industry. :roll:
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 10:20:33

The oil production has increased since 2005 but exports have been flat. The increase in demand is coming from the oil producers...not the oil consumers.


Between 2005 and 2015 oil production increased by 0.75% per year. One eight its historical rate. That is pretty close to the average increase in energy demand generated by the industry to produce oil, as described by the Etp Model. It appears we have spent the last decade treading water. How long it will be before we get tired of paddling, and sink is the question?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 06 Dec 2017, 12:20:07

EOR mitigated Oman's oil production decline. Primary and secondary production would have resulted in a bell shaped curve and a tail. EOR will result in a second wave before decline and a tail? Or in a second wave and a free fall crash?

Oman's current account balance has crashed with the oil price collapse.

It would seem like Oman could do better with higher oil prices to make EOR economic. But higher oil prices will lead to higher production costs on everything...

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