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PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 21:52:58

It was the fisherman, not the sun bathers
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 22:28:17

pstarr wrote:I could post these scary graphs all day long :? Want more?
All of those graphs are trumped by this one:

Image

pstarr wrote:Storage has little meaning, where demand has been crushed. I have a store of rocks and pebbles in my backyard that nobody seems to want. Are you interested?
See above. Demand has not been crushed. It is growing.

ralfy wrote:
kublikhan wrote:Onlooker, energy has always been the lifeblood of the economy. This is nothing new. And yet even for this precious lifeblood, it still obeys the laws of supply and demand. When demand is higher than supply, we see it's price rise. When supply is higher than demand, we see it's price fall. If you have evidence to the contrary, I would like to see it. Prove your case.
Wasn't this explained in another thread some time ago?
It was explained in another thread that supply and demand don't matter for oil? With actual evidence to prove the case? What thread was that?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 22:41:07

ralfy wrote:The question isn't whether it's going to end abruptly but whether or not there will be enough of it to meet the growing demand of a global capitalist system. That was explained to you in another thread.
That wasn't the question Ralfy. Here is what onlooker said:

onlooker wrote:basic economic supply/demand dynamics break down when dealing with the fundamental driver of economic activity being energy ie. Oil
And my response: Prove your case. Still waiting on that.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 23:30:23

Hey Kub. As long as all the oil and wealth is going to wealthy guys like you in America, the rest be damned. Right?

We should be pumping 120 mbpd according to WEO 2006. But we are not.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 00:09:27

pstarr wrote:Hey Kub. As long as all the oil and wealth is going to wealthy guys like you in America, the rest be damned. Right?

We should be pumping 120 mbpd according to WEO 2006. But we are not.
Image
I can keep posting these all night. But you still won't get it.

Why don't you post Canada's graph, KSA's, Iran's, Iraq?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 00:15:47

pstarr wrote:I can keep posting these all night. But you still won't get it.
You keep cherry picking a handful of countries with slowing oil demand. Yet when you look at the world as a whole, demand keeps growing. Do you get that? Do I need to draw you a picture? Use smaller words?

pstarr wrote:Hey Kub. As long as all the oil and wealth is going to wealthy guys like you in America, the rest be damned. Right?
Is that what I said pstarr? No it isn't. You are making up BS about me to try and divert attention away from the topic at hand.

pstarr wrote:We should be pumping 120 mbpd according to WEO 2006. But we are not
Are you kidding me? This is your definition of "demand has been crushed?" Oil demand growing at a slower than projected rate means "demand has been crushed?" Do you realize how stupid that sounds?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 00:48:51

I apologize for misconstruing you as the loan recipient of God's Good Graces

But don't you think all those other countries would prefer the riches we here in in the US have? Do you think that Spain and rest suffer because they are undeserving? Wouldn't they rather have a wealth of oil like China, SA and the US? If the oil were there, they would have it as well.

The graph is going up but not as fast as predicted by all the experts. And it has peaked.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 02:23:22

pstarr wrote:But don't you think all those other countries would prefer the riches we here in in the US have? Do you think that Spain and rest suffer because they are undeserving? Wouldn't they rather have a wealth of oil like China, SA and the US? If the oil were there, they would have it as well.
That is a specious argument. Spain is richer than China is. Spain's GDP per capita is around $36k. China's is less than half that. Japan is one of the richest countries in the world. Yet is has one of the lowest levels of Oil reserves per capita on Earth. Nigeria has the 11 largest oil reserves in the world. Yet it ranks 127 in terms of GDP per capita. A countries wealth depends alot more than just "are they sitting on an ocean of oil?" Infact having a bounty of natural resources could just as easily stifle a country's development:

The resource curse, also known as the paradox of plenty, refers to the paradox that countries with an abundance of natural resources (like fossil fuels and certain minerals), tend to have less economic growth, less democracy, and worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural resources.

An influential study by Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner found a strong correlation between natural resource abundance and poor economic growth. Hundreds of studies have now evaluated the effects of resource wealth on a wide range of economic outcomes, and offered many explanations for how, why, and when a resource curse is likely to occur. While "the lottery analogy has value but also has shortcomings", many observers have likened the resource curse to the difficulties that befall lottery winners who struggle to manage the complex side-effects of newfound wealth.

Violence and conflict
According to one academic study, a country that is otherwise typical but has primary commodity exports around 5% of GDP has a 6% risk of conflict, but when exports are 25% of GDP the chance of conflict rises to 33%. "Ethno-political groups are more likely to resort to rebellion rather than using nonviolent means or becoming terrorists when representing regions rich in oil." There are several factors behind the relationship between natural resources and armed conflicts. Resource wealth may increase the vulnerability of countries to conflicts by undermining the quality of governance and economic performance (the "resource curse" argument). Secondly, conflicts can occur over the control and exploitation of resources and the allocation of their revenues (the "resource war" argument). Thirdly, access to resource revenues by belligerents can prolong conflicts (the "conflict resource" argument).

A 2004 literature review finds that oil makes the onset of war more likely and that lootable resources lengthen existing conflicts. One study finds the mere discovery (as opposed to just the exploitation) of petroleum resources increases the risk of conflict, as oil revenues have the potential to alter the balance of power between regimes and their opponents, rendering bargains in the present obsolete in the future. One study suggests that the rise in mineral prices over the period 1997–2010 contributed to up to 21 percent of the average country-level violence in Africa

Democracy
Research shows that oil wealth lowers levels of democracy and strengthens autocratic rule. "only one type of resource has been consistently correlated with less democracy and worse institutions: petroleum, which is the key variable in the vast majority of the studies that identify some type of curse." A 2014 meta-analysis confirms the negative impact of oil wealth on democratization.
Resource curse

Obviously the resource curse is not a universal constant and many countries have managed to avoid it. However trying to make an argument "If only they had oil they would be rich" is far from the truth.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 02:25:32

pstarr wrote:The graph is going up but not as fast as predicted by all the experts. And it has peaked.
It hasn't peaked. That graph is still shown going up all the way to its end: 2016. And If we take more recent data from 2017 it is still rising as well:

Global oil demand is set to accelerate faster than anticipated this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has revised up its 2017 growth estimates. Demand grew by 2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 2.4 percent, in the second quarter of 2017, prompting the Paris-based organization to increase its growth estimate for the year to 1.6 mb/d, or 1.7 percent. For 2018, the IEA is predicting growth of 1.4 mb/d, or 1.4 percent. Neil Atkinson, head the IEA's oil industry and markets division, told CNBC that "pretty robust" demand indicated that a rebalancing of the market is "underway."
Global oil demand to exceed expectations in 2017, says IEA
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 05:56:45

But growth in consumption does not fit the ETP model because it requires demand to be crushed, so any facts contrary to that will be disregarded. Same as it ever was.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby marmico » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 06:27:44

Pee Starr is an innumerate.

Image

He needs a golden shower from the ETP Weasel's thermodynamic fairy collaborator, the nGeni nutter.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby Cog » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 07:53:28

Ever notice the cartoon like quality of the ETP charts and graphs? Sort of sad really that they can't even produce a good looking chart. I've seen more professional work done by grade school kids. Although to be fair, the people who lap this doom up aren't the brightest bulbs either.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 10:16:37

But growth in consumption does not fit the ETP model because it requires demand to be crushed, so any facts contrary to that will be disregarded. Same as it ever was.


The Etp Model is an Equation of State. It determines the energy state of the Petroleum Production System (PPS). Since you have not mentioned ENERGY you must be talking about some other model? It would be nice if you could clue us in as to what you are talking about?

We should be pumping 120 mbpd according to WEO 2006. But we are not.


According to the Etp Model the world will need to be pumping 107 mb/d by 2020 to prevent the Petroleum Production System from failing. At its present growth rate of 0.075% per year that is not going to happen! If that production performance does not improve rapidly, we can expect a number of shut-ins, and bankruptcies in the oil world over the next couple of years. Venezuela, and the North Sea are obviously the first major casualties; and most of the Middle Eastern producers are in serous trouble. They are depleting their SWFs at a rapid rate (see Yoshua's posts on a previous page).

Unless the world's oil producers can coordinate their actions, things will begin to disintegrate rapidly. As it presently stands they seem to be too busy shooting at each other to do much about the problem!

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 11:16:57

shortonoil wrote:
You found out no such thing.


We could also say that we found out that you are dumber than a box of rocks. But that wouldn't be true; we already knew that!


Rystad, IHS, Wood Mack, try one sometime, instead of making stuff up.

There is a reason why you won't come out and play, you make it so obvious.

That review from the Royal Society, what might it say about your "contribution" to joke science? :lol:
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 11:19:23

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:Well, Short in either case Venezuela was deleteriously affected by low oil prices

And one is permitted to say that Venezuela was deleteriously affected by high production costs. All those trillions of barrels of Orinoco goo are very expensive . . . too expensive in fact . . to scrape off the rocks.


The extra-heavy of the Orinoco has a number required to produce each barrel. I have several in fact. And none of them are "too expensive". Do you really want to jump into shortys' "liar liar pants on fire" club?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 11:35:38

kublikhan wrote:
pstarr wrote:I can keep posting these all night. But you still won't get it.
You keep cherry picking a handful of countries with slowing oil demand. Yet when you look at the world as a whole, demand keeps growing. Do you get that? Do I need to draw you a picture? Use smaller words?

I said demand==price==supply.

kublikhan wrote:
pstarr wrote:We should be pumping 120 mbpd according to WEO 2006. But we are not
Are you kidding me? This is your definition of "demand has been crushed?" Oil demand growing at a slower than projected rate means "demand has been crushed?" Do you realize how stupid that sounds?

You are using weasel words, with refusal to refer to 'supply' and constant harping on you 'demand' as the measure.

Yes oil production has increased, at a rate not predicted in any year by IEA in their WEO reports. I can forgive them that. What is no excusable is your refusal to understand where the oil is doing. Sure, the line goes up. Sure 'production' is up. Yes we know that. 'Peak production' has not occurred. But who cares?

The oil does not reach the consumer. The oil is used up pumping the oil. Do you get that yet? It's the reason Spain, Italy, and so many other national economies are in decline. They don't get the oil. The frackors get the oil. SA gets the oil. Wealthy white American guys (and their Chinese product slaves) get the oil. The rest don't get the oil.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 12:23:50

The oil does not reach the consumer. The oil is used up pumping the oil.


By our calculations the extra oil needed to pump oil is now 1.21 mb/d per year. Over the last few years oil production has barely achieved that. We are at crunch point were the rest of the economy can not grow, and the industry is just piling up more debt. The petroleum industry can not provide the energy that the economy that buys its products needs to grow, and its energy cost are ever increasing. It's a quagmire; the more we thrash around the faster we sink.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 12:34:32

shortonoil wrote:
The oil does not reach the consumer. The oil is used up pumping the oil.


By our calculations the extra oil needed to pump oil is now 1.21 mb/d per year. Over the last few years oil production has barely achieved that. We are at crunch point were the rest of the economy can not grow, and the industry is just piling up more debt. The petroleum industry can not provide the energy that the economy that buys its products needs to grow, and its energy cost are ever increasing. It's a quagmire; the more we thrash around the faster we sink.

this is such an important concept, one that we have ignored and then finally struggled with only recently. 10, 12 years ago the conversation re eroei raged, but not with the understanding your brought to the table.

The amount of oil extracted from the earth inconceivable huge. So too is the oil lost in that production. It's difficult for most folks to comprehend. And that lost oil is sure not measured . . . not by any official organization, or industry shill. Thanks for the patience and fantastic debating skills lol
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 12:37:37

pstarr wrote:What is no excusable is your refusal to understand where the oil is doing.


Did your keyboard break or were you suffering a mild stroke while you banged that out?

pstarr wrote:The oil is used up pumping the oil. Do you get that yet?


We don't "get" it because it's factually incorrect.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 7

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 05 Dec 2017, 13:03:14

pstarr wrote:You are using weasel words, with refusal to refer to 'supply' and constant harping on you 'demand' as the measure.
Ummm...you are the one who started talking about demand. I was responding to your point about storage and you said storage was meaningless because demand got crushed. Remember? You are the one who keeps moving the goalposts of this conversation. However if you want to now talk about supply I am happy to oblige.

pstarr wrote:I said demand==price==supply.
This is incorrect. Demand and supply are rarely in perfect balance. When supply exceeds demand, the surplus goes into storage. When demand exceeds supply, the deficit is withdrawn from storage. When supply overshoots demand by a large amount, the oil price falls. When the oil market tightens up, the oil price rises. And we know supply overshot demand late 2014-2015 because we saw oil inventories rising all throughout that time period. Which was also a time of falling oil prices.

pstarr wrote:The oil does not reach the consumer. The oil is used up pumping the oil. Do you get that yet? It's the reason Spain, Italy, and so many other national economies are in decline. They don't get the oil. The frackors get the oil. SA gets the oil. Wealthy white American guys (and their Chinese product slaves) get the oil. The rest don't get the oil.
I get that is what you believe. However do you understand that if you want to make a convincing argument you have to do more than simply state your opinion? You have to back it up. You have failed to do this. All you are doing here is pontificating. When I took the counterpoint to this argument earlier in the thread, I backed up my argument with actual numbers. I showed how the US oil industry only consumes a small fraction of oil products compared to other consumers. I did the same thing with Saudi Arabia. I also linked to a more rigorous analysis on this topic. It also disproved your argument. Instead of offering a rebuttal to those arguments you are simply pontificating again. Well I'm sorry Pstarr but that doesn't cut it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. You present none.

pstarr wrote:Yes oil production has increased, at a rate not predicted in any year by IEA in their WEO reports. I can forgive them that. What is no excusable is your refusal to understand where the oil is doing. Sure, the line goes up. Sure 'production' is up. Yes we know that. 'Peak production' has not occurred. But who cares?
I understand you have an erroneous picture of where oil goes with absolutely nothing to backup it up. You want me on board your way of thinking? Convince me you are right. That means you have to do more than just pontificate.
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