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PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 17:40:18

pstarr wrote:There will be a momentary oil-price spike (it won't disrupt the mean Etp curve).


ETP is about how cheap oil will destroy the economy, not expensive oil. Can't have it both ways.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby donstewart » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 18:40:02

@asg70
Your comment demonstrates an inability to appreciate complex systems.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 19:12:08

Yoshua wrote:The Model predicts world peak oil production from conventional oil reservoirs in 2005. World conventional peak oil took place in 2005.


The modelclaims no such thing.

Yoshua wrote:Europe peaked in in 1995, reached a plateau and started its decline in 2000.


And how many more peaks might they have in the future? 1 or 2 more like the US maybe?


Yoshua wrote:
US peaked in 1970 and started its decline the next year.


And we're headed to the 2nd peak since then? How big do you think the next one will be?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 19:14:16

Yoshua wrote:Canada reached conventional peak oil in 1973 and the increase in production is coming from unconventional resources.


Good thing consumer products can be made out of most anything with a bunch of carbons and hydrogen molecules involved then, and consumers could care less about where their plastic and gasoline come from!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 19:16:48

Yoshua wrote:The Model predicts the energy half way point in 2012 and falling oil prices from that point.


Nope. The model says no such thing, do you know anything about these models?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 19:21:38

ETP is about how cheap oil will destroy the economy, not expensive oil. Can't have it both ways.


It all depends on whether the petroleum production system, or the monetary/financial system collapses first. It is a question that the Etp Model does not give us an answer. Many people, including myself, would like to know what that answer is. It would make a huge difference in how one plans for the future.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 19:27:03

AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Europe peaked in in 1995, reached a plateau and started its decline in 2000.


And how many more peaks might they have in the future? 1 or 2 more like the US maybe?

Europe oil production is in precipitous decline. The last great fields in the North Sea are collapsing. The rest peaked decades ago. Abiotic will not make up the deficit.


AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:
US peaked in 1970 and started its decline the next year.


And we're headed to the 2nd peak since then? How big do you think the next one will be?

No we will not. US oil production peaked in 1970 at 9637 thousand barrels of oil per day. The tight-shale boom is over, the North Slope is in precipitous decline, and the remaining 500 thousand barrels per day that move south will soon stop . . . as the pipelines permanently freeze with the reduced flow. Growth in the much-vaunted deepwater GOM is barely maintained. The rest in in decline.
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 19:51:12

pstarr wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Europe peaked in in 1995, reached a plateau and started its decline in 2000.


And how many more peaks might they have in the future? 1 or 2 more like the US maybe?

Europe oil production is in precipitous decline.


Maybe. And you would have said the same thing about the US...right up until you couldn't, because oil production is not determined by bell shaped curves any more than a microbrew is labelled "Budweiser" on the cans you swill it from.

pstarr wrote: The last great fields in the North Sea are collapsing. The rest peaked decades ago. Abiotic will not make up the deficit.


As the US has demonstrated, there is no need for abiotic to be the answer. We are hitting all time global oil peaks as we speak (yo Copious! Thanks for the update!) and we have barely begun to make a dent in the largest hydrocarbon resources on the planet, Canadian tar sands, Venezuela extra-heavy, hydrates, shale production from other countries, global reserve growth according to the USGS, etc etc.

Funny you should mention the only one no one can find any of, as compared to the ones I mentioned. It is almost as though...you don't want to know anything about the hydrocarbon resources of the planet, almost as though you just want to prove ignorance is bliss for some strange reason?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 21:32:46

shortonoil wrote:the Etp Model does not give us an answer.


Etp 8-ball is stumped. How convenient.

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Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 21:34:09

Yoshua wrote:

The Model predicts world peak oil production from conventional oil reservoirs in 2005. World conventional peak oil took place in 2005.



The modelclaims no such thing.


The Model "assumes" that conventional crude production peaked in 2005 or 2006. That is determined by the best fit to the EIA data. In actuality the production distribution is a logistic curve. Just like Hubbert said it was.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 21:50:27

Etp 8-ball is stumped. How convenient.


And you are a complete jerk. What are your plans for the future, another conversation with the warden?

In actuality it is a very important question that should be addressed here. Many people are making plans on a major collapse in the very near future. The ultra rich have bought so much New Zealand real estate that the government there had to restrict it. Sales of survival food, and guns have skyrocketed all over the Western world. The likes of the trolls here will be the first to bust down your door if that day ever arrives. Shoot them!
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby creedoninmo » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 22:28:15

Saudi Arabia preparing it's fighter planes for an assault on Lebanon is a symptom of depletion. Adam will always be ignorant, as the world caves in. He will never understand what is happening.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 23:13:08

shortonoil wrote:
Yoshua wrote:

The Model predicts world peak oil production from conventional oil reservoirs in 2005. World conventional peak oil took place in 2005.



The modelclaims no such thing.


The Model "assumes" that conventional crude production peaked in 2005 or 2006.


The random number generator might assume something that stupid, but only because it excludes current resource estimates in favor of obsolete ones, doesn't count vast (as in "more than have been consumed to date in the entire history of oil production") types of others, you know, all that cherry picking stuff.

But the model says no such thing.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 23:16:29

creedoninmo wrote:Saudi Arabia preparing it's fighter planes for an assault on Lebanon is a symptom of depletion.


No it isn't. It is a sign that the new prince is throwing his weight around and getting hisself in more trouble then he is already in.

Now stop trying to make yourself look better short by having the sock puppets say things even dumber than the random number generator.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 02:52:06

High oil prices will kill the economy. Low oil prices will kill the oil industry.

Adam you are an oil socialist. You wish that all oils be treated equal. But the capitalists don't treat them equally.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby donstewart » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 08:19:49

Addendum on Tim Morgan
Tim has added his curve for Energy Cost of Energy. It is a rising exponential, very much like the ETP model. In one of his responses to a comment, he says that the methodology is proprietary.
Don Stewart
PS If one starts with an exponentially rising cost of energy, then the outcome is already foretold...unless magic happens.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 08:42:47

PS If one starts with an exponentially rising cost of energy, then the outcome is already foretold...unless magic happens.


A boulder on a mountainside will always roll down hill; an iron bolt left in the weather will always rust. The screams of denial sound like the squealing of a pig beginning delivered to the butchers shop. The volume of their protestations being directly proportional to the proximity of their inevitable fate.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby GHung » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 08:59:38

Venezuela just defaulted, moving deeper into crisis

Venezuela, a nation spiraling into a humanitarian crisis, has missed a debt payment. It could soon face grim consequences.

The South American country defaulted on its debt, according to a statement issued Monday night by S&P Global Ratings. The agency said the 30-day grace period had expired for a payment that was due in October.

A debt default risks setting off a dangerous series of events that could exacerbate Venezuela's food and medical shortages.

If enough holders of a particular bond demand full and immediate repayment, it can prompt investors across all Venezuelan bonds to demand the same thing. Since Venezuela doesn't have the money to pay all its bondholders right now, investors would then be entitled to seize the country's assets -- primarily barrels of oil -- outside its borders. ....

..... If investors seize the country's oil shipments, the food and medical shortages would worsen quickly.

"Then it's pandemonium," says Fernando Freijedo, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, a research firm. "The humanitarian crisis is already pretty dire ... it boggles the mind what could happen next." ....
http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/14/news/ec ... oplead-dom
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 09:21:47

#ThanksChavez
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 10:08:28

Venezuela, a nation spiraling into a humanitarian crisis, has missed a debt payment. It could soon face grim consequences.


http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/20 ... money.html

Just as we have been saying for the last 5 years; people do appear to be waking up. The Saudi fields reached a water cut of 50% 17 years ago. It shouldn't be surprising that they can no longer pump enough oil to cover the Kingdom's costs. Unfortunately this is likely to culminate in a bloody, useless war. If we expend our last sliver of resources on a war over a commodity that will soon have no value the world could wake up to find itself in the equivalent of the "Road".

Venezuela is just the first of governments that will fail, and fail the people that they were intended to serve. Some hopeless dreams that our innate cleverness will salvage our desire for ever more material do-dads are just that - dreams. Depletion does not take vacations!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org
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