Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 12:54:08

Why isn't Pseudo KaiserJeep informing us as to why Solar Spain is not a paradise of riches?

http://www.abacoadvisers.com/spain-expl ... y-in-spain

"On the street, many people now prefer to reject the option of having solar panels altogether. The complexity of the taxes and legislation has discouraged many from taking the renewable energy option."

LOL, it was all a big xxxxing SCAM.

No juice for the EV SCAM either. I bet they roll out the cashless "money" scam right along with the EV SCAM. Imagine those EV retards sitting in their worthless junkmobiles and all the sensors recording $20 environmental fees everytime a bug splats the windshield.

What a bunch of xxxxing dumbshits.
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
StarvingLion
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 935
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:07:11

Look at this Physicist Bozo Clown from Haavaaad. This moron dreams up technologies that consume energy but cannot even *imagine* a single viable energy device of the future. Dr. Kuckoo sez we shall take direct control of the local star (the sun) out in space. Imagine that.

Image
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
StarvingLion
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 935
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:11:36

This Nobel prize Physicist Moron believes we shall build synthetic fuel facilities in the future and that nuclear will be unbelievably cheap. What this nutjob really believes is that there is nothing more than solar + pumped hydro = 6 billion bodies to bulldoze. Why don't you peons just admit it. The TECH SCAM IS NOTHING MORE THAN:

FutureMan = SOLAR + PUMPED HYDRO

Image
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
StarvingLion
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 935
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 13:24:08

"World GDP grew by $1.03 trillion last year, central banks conjured up $1.7 trillion in new currency. It looks like we are already going backward."

That's just awful numbers...especially if the central banks now have decided to end the money printing. The central banks see something on the horizon? They are losing control of the situation?
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 739
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 15:00:43

That's just awful numbers...especially if the central banks now have decided to end the money printing. The central banks see something on the horizon? They are losing control of the situation?


Once it is realized that the central banks main area of concern is the central banks those number get even worse. All that liquidity creation shows up on their books as a liability. Their net worth must be plunging in this dead cat bounce economy. The last thing a banker wants to see is their bank's net worth going down! That is when the owners start looking for someone else to run the bank, and these are mostly privately owned banks. The one thing that we can be sure of is these banks are not going to sacrifice themselves to save poor little us-ins. When the rubber meets the road, the economy will be what they throw under the bus even if it only gives them one more day.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4969
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 15:15:09

marmico wrote:
He may be an a-hole but you really shouldn't doxx him.


Screw Starr. He's a scumbag. About a year ago, this website went wonky and Scumbag Starr went into other posters prior posts and altered them.

That's a lie. I often edit my posts for grammar, syntax and content. But did not write the trash associated with my logon. You did. At the time the forum was undergoing changes, there was crosslinking and the member firewall was down.

I have no need for such chickensh*t games. I could call your BS out with my tongue cut out of my mouth
Last edited by pstarr on Wed 11 Oct 2017, 15:20:15, edited 1 time in total.
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26076
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 15:20:02

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Up +26% YoY

Average P/E 22

Caterpillar P/E 700

I'm not an investor, so I can't say if the numbers are indicating doom. But I'm not going to buy any Caterpillar shares right now.


These professional money managers have convinced themselves that the FED has got their back. That it is just going to keep shoveling them money hands over fist. If they think that the FED is on their side they definitely slept in too late. The FED is on the FED's side, they just happen to be at the right place at the right time to take advantage of it. When it becomes in the FED's best interest to change direction, they'll be fed to the sharks like everyone else has been. The FED has no more loyalty to them than a rat has to a piece of cheese.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4969
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 15:45:38

pstarr wrote:I have no need for such chickensh*t games.


Really? I can see in your posting history a few times where you say that ultimately you're quote just in it for the yuks unquote.

That's where all the unfunny warmed over George Carlin comes from, I guess.

You're responsible for lowering the IQ of the discussion here whether you'd like to admit it or not.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 911
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 15:51:20

US financial performance

Here are some numbers for the US from Tim Morgan for the year 2016. Same format as I quoted for the world:

Reported GDP................. 18.6 trillion
Borrowing Effect...............(3.2)
Energy Cost Econ Rent........(1.5)

Total Adjustments..............(4.7)
Real Output.....................13.9
Delta Output....................(0.1)
Delta Debt.......................1.4

Real Economy Debt Ratio...........336 percent

Estimated Pension Deficiency
2000................5.2
2016...............29.1

While the details differ, the overall picture is pretty much the same as for the world. Stagnant output, slightly declining per capita, with lots of debt and accumulating pension deficiency due to low interest rates.

If interest rates are increased to try to alleviate the pension problem, then real output will likely decline as interest sensitive real output (especially housing) decreases. But as real output declines, then the ability to pay the interest that is required to restore pension solvency declines. In short, a vicious circle.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 674
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 16:00:37

World Oil Shortages To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, warns VP Goldman Sachs

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/ ... -Says.html
Message to the 1%... "There's A Storm Coming"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3CLc0IGstk
Cliffhanger1983
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon 18 Nov 2013, 15:25:53

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 16:05:47

shortonoil wrote:I'm not an investor, so I can't say if the numbers are indicating doom. But I'm not going to buy any Caterpillar shares right now.


[/quote]Even at today's price they are paying 2.45% dividends which is better then the average. If you want low P/E look at RGR Sturm Ruger or AOB American outdoor brands/ Smith and Wesson but the dividends are less or none existent.
I would buy Cat only on a market low of course (If I was a player and I'm not)
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7797
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 16:43:50

shortonoil wrote:I'm not an investor, so I can't say if the numbers are indicating doom. But I'm not going to buy any Caterpillar shares right now.


You have it wrong -- as usual. I did not say that. That was said by Yoshua. It is really not that difficult to keep quotes straight if your brain is still functioning.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4969
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 17:19:32

Hey Short

George W Bush suggested we use switch grass to meet our energy needs!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNfZeh6oK-c
Message to the 1%... "There's A Storm Coming"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3CLc0IGstk
Cliffhanger1983
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon 18 Nov 2013, 15:25:53

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby creedoninmo » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 17:22:26

When the oil price goes above the maximum price curve we begin to have economic crisis, like the Greek debt crisis. When the oil price drops below the maximum price curve we have oil producers like Venezuela going under. We have been a little under the maximum price curve recently so the economy has been relatively stable.
creedoninmo
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 147
Joined: Sun 15 Jan 2017, 09:52:20

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 21:59:03

China; Tim Morgan
For those with the interest, Tim Morgan's data shows a sobering view of China. Using the same format as I reported world and US data, here is China in their own currency:

Reported GDP.................75
Borrowing Effect............(28)
Energy Cost of Energy......(7)

Total Adjustments.............(35)
Real Output....................40
Delta Output....................1
Delta Debt......................23
Real Economy Debt Ratio......483 percent

Estimated Pension Deficiency
2000....................4
2016....................40

While the GDP in China increased almost 7 percent, Morgan believes that was entirely due to adding leverage. As you can see, the change in real output was negligible while their debt load increased substantially. They have the same problem as the US and other countries in terms of pension underfunding.

I find these numbers to be provocative. Instead of thinking of China as 'growing by 7 percent', we are asked to think of them as 'stagnant', but increasing consumption through added leverage.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 674
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby creedoninmo » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 06:13:31

Sky rocketing gas prices or gas shortages would cause a deleveraging world wide. Will see how long the banksters can keep us in this sweet spot.
creedoninmo
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 147
Joined: Sun 15 Jan 2017, 09:52:20

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 09:37:37

creedoninmo wrote:Sky rocketing gas prices or gas shortages would cause a deleveraging world wide. Will see how long the banksters can keep us in this sweet spot.


You are discussing the LAST peak oil, sock puppet. And it didn't work out then as planned either. Short was around for this, and claimed it was even happening back then...before it didn't...and then he had to make up a random number generator to replace the bell shaped curves that didn't work out. But I don't have to tell you this do I Short, I'm just mentioning it for those who aren't aware of the sheer number of sock puppets you employ as salesmen to the report.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 2772
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 10:47:26

Sky rocketing gas prices or gas shortages would cause a deleveraging world wide. Will see how long the banksters can keep us in this sweet spot.


Another week, another inventory build:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-1 ... op-2-years

The price is still hovering around $50, but is moving back down. Hedge funds that went long last week by 700,000 contracts are getting smeared again. It looks like the banksters, and speculators are throwing good money after bad. That sweet spot is not looking so sweat right now. Next week the drop in US production will be the big bet that prices are going to move up again. They will get smeared again because when production declines so also does demand. Petroleum production itself is now providing the largest share of end product demand; 58% of it.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4969
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby donstewart » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 10:57:28

Tim Morgan and China; Andy Xie and China and the West
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/ ... l-economy/

Tim Morgan's numbers provide some basis to start from. Andy Xie weighs in with his theory of what is wrong and what will happen.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 674
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 11:17:16

shortonoil wrote:
Sky rocketing gas prices or gas shortages would cause a deleveraging world wide. Will see how long the banksters can keep us in this sweet spot.


Another week, another inventory build:


When industry does glut, it does it GOOD. The disaster of 1986 stretched for more than a decade, so far no one has come up with a reason why this one won't be just as bad. It is already like a quarter of the way there. Seems unlikely to be as bad as the glut post WWII though, that one went on for more than 2 decades.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 2772
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: tagio and 23 guests