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PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 22:22:43

shortonoil wrote:
What's his meet s video?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

An Ion battery has one tenth the energy density of oil, and once the brines of South America are mined its cost of production is going to go up exponentially. The Energizer Bunny is not going to save the world.


Notice critical difference...Tony can explain his stuff, and uses, you know, like evidence and science and stuff! Not a random number generator to be found!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 01:52:40

@Ghung
Advertising reached a high peak in the late 1920s, and then met hard times during the Depression. Part of the hard times resulted from a half-hearted federal crackdown on deceptive advertising. But mostly, according to Tim Wu, author of The Attention Merchants:

pg 81: In Depression Era America, advertising's pitches were falling on deaf ears, or at least, on the ears of people now lacking the means to buy all those items of great and sundry on which they had first frittered away so much money just a few years before.

But Wu concludes the paragraph as follows: Something had to change and it would. But few in late 1930s advertising could have predicted it would be an explosion in the supply of usable attention. This happened thanks to two new inventions, the first one whose potential most doubted and the second whose potential they could scarcely imagine. A whole new attention economy would soon be born, and advertising would cling to it for dear life.

So, we can conclude that if Peak Oil or Peak Debt or Ecosystem Collapse or World War III causes a collapse in disposable income, a knock on effect may be a collapse in usable attention for the advertisers. And if these two things happen, then social media will change in ways which are hard to predict. But the default assumption is that they will fare badly, just as advertising fared badly in the Depression, and the very platforms they rely upon may disappear or shrink significantly.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 01:59:10

AdamB

The model starts at some point and then moves forward. So it's not a regression model. The model moves forward and is predictive. (Not that there is anything wrong with regression models)

It would be nice if the Etp Model thread would be accessible again at the front page and not hidden somewhere in an obscure corner not accessible for guests.

I don't mind being called a zealot, a sock puppet, crazy or whatever. You can call the model a regression trash model if you like, I don't mind. But it would be nice to bring back full freedom of speech again...you fucking morons.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 03:41:06

Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler: "We Seem To Be Living In The Riskiest Market Of Our Lives"

And the German finance minister said that "We will have another financial crisis, since the ECB has now created bubbles everywhere".

But what do they know, everything is just humming along nicely.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 04:20:17

It would be nice if the Etp Model thread would be accessible


Only members of the ETP Bozo Club believe that it takes 9 times as much energy in 2017 to boil an egg (barrel of oil) than in did in 1960. Pass the collection plate. The ETP Bozo Club founder will be out of pocket $1250 in 40 days. Fookenstoopidretards making a nostradamus out of a fry machine cook at his Momma's crab shack.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 05:35:01

What's his meet s video?


Peter Starr is a gung ho capitalist just like Tony Seba. After 26000 posts on peakoil.com, Starr plays a different online game than Seba.

https://www.eurekachamber.com/member/th ... t-suites-0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 06:29:57

But what do they know, everything is just humming along nicely.


The degree of humming depends on where you are. Things aren't humming in Venezuela, they are crashing. They are doing fine in Manhattan, but there is nothing left in Detroit. A civilization of 7.4 billion is not going to disappear over night, but it will disappear. Region by region, state by state, piece by piece it is falling apart. When the weight of the losses becomes greater than the weight of what remains the lights go out. That is the point we are attempting to judge.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 06:38:12

The oil industry has $2.5T in debt, has basically ended all E&D of new oil fields and has cut CapEx to the bone due to depressed oil prices. They are now just pumping oil from old, existing oil fields.

We are now waiting for two things: That the water breaks through or that the machinery breaks down.

The calm before the storm.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 08:05:22

Fast Crash Evidence
I have previously pointed to Tim Morgan’s SEEDS project. I indicated that I did not know exactly what was being measured in each line. Another reader pointed out the same thing to Tim. Below is his response. Following that, is his general timeline, including a crash in the not too distant future.

Don Stewart

I’ll be publishing a lot more data-based discussion in forthcoming articles.

I hope you will understand if I am a bit cagey about what is published – I think SEEDS may be the only system that really interprets what is happening, and I don’t want to gift the methodology to for-profit organizations.

———————

I think I should tell you that my views on the situation have firmed up lately. I think we are near the end of what I now call “phase 4” in the process:

– Phase 1 – deceleration of growth (c 2000)
– Phase 2 – using cheap & easy credit to “fake” ‘business as usual’ (2000-08)
– Phase 3 – crash, caused by inability to service excessive debt at ‘normal’ rates of interest (2008) (mechanism: loss of trust in banks)
– Phase 4 – ‘monetary adventurism’ – policy of cheap money to co-exist with excessive debt (2009- )
– Phase 5 – crash, created by ‘monetary adventurism’ (mechanism: loss of trust in currencies?)

This is one reason for getting SEEDS on line now – because my hunch is that the current situation is running out of time.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 08:20:55

I’ll be publishing a lot more data-based discussion in forthcoming articles.


Great. Now Morgan can publish a lot more data on why his 5 year old Perfect Storm was a bust. ECoE Morgan is like ETP Bozo. Petrified nostradamus busts.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 08:56:45

marmico wrote:
What's his meet s video?


Peter Starr is a gung ho capitalist just like Tony Seba. After 26000 posts on peakoil.com, Starr plays a different online game than Seba.

https://www.eurekachamber.com/member/th ... t-suites-0


He may be an a-hole but you really shouldn't doxx him.

So he's a landlord. That explains why he has so much free time to spam this forum.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 09:03:15

He may be an a-hole but you really shouldn't doxx him.


Screw Starr. He's a scumbag. About a year ago, this website went wonky and Scumbag Starr went into other posters prior posts and altered them.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 09:38:41

The U.S stock market is up $5T since Trump was elected. The wealth effect really works. The P/E is of course increasing exponentially. But as long as it works...who cares.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 10:12:02

Central Bank money creation falls 2 trillion dollars to zero

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-1 ... llion-zero

Those who follow the logic of Steve Keen that a slowdown in debt creation can cause recession will want to pay attention. Those who can follow the math in Tim Morgan's computations will want to pay attention. Those who are looking at the degradation of energy sources will want to factor in possible removal of financial stimulus.

Those who religiously, fervently, believe that everything must be wonderful can ignore.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 10:29:57

Yoshua wrote:The U.S stock market is up $5T since Trump was elected. The wealth effect really works. The P/E is of course increasing exponentially. But as long as it works...who cares.

So as usual, no data. No analysis. No citations. Just doomer hyperbole. You're about to join my blocked list for roughly zero signal to noise ratio.

So to quantify things, looking at the trailing 12 month S&P 500 ratio, which gives short term numbers near what I see for several credible sources, It has increased from roughly 23.5 to roughly 25.5 over the past six months (to 10/1). That's under 10%, and looks pretty linear. For the 6 months prior to that, it was roughly flat. (You have to look at earnings as well as the market -- you can't just assume that because the market is rising that the PE is "rising exponentially".

https://www.quandl.com/data/MULTPL/SP50 ... o-by-Month

If you look at a long term S&P 500 PE chart, 25 is high, but not extreme. (Somewhere around 15 looks like the average over the last 90 years).

http://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500- ... ings-chart

And, if you wanted to have any credibility or show you had any sense of math, you would notice that PE ratios tend to get "exponential", peaking (near term) shortly after the end of recessions. Again, earnings matter a LOT.

If you'd cited, say, 2001 or 2009, that would actually make sense.

Just another example of doomers' incompetence re discussing economics with any meaningful context (instead of trying to spread meaningless FUD).
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Wed 11 Oct 2017, 10:32:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 10:31:05

marmico wrote:
He may be an a-hole but you really shouldn't doxx him.

Screw Starr. He's a scumbag. About a year ago, this website went wonky and Scumbag Starr went into other posters prior posts and altered them.


I also see in the archives that he's been temporarily banned for misconduct at least once. By any interpretation of the COC he should be perma-banned by now. I have to imagine the only reason this hasn't happened is that the site has so few posters that if you removed his post-count the activity would drop off. So the mods are going for quantity rather than quality. In other words, it's okay if people just lob personal insults back and forth because it at least gives the site an appearance of life or relevance.

By doing this, though, it's created a "squatter" situation. In the same way weeds overtake an abandoned field, when intelligent posters leave the building it creates a vacuum for the nutcases to take over.

This is why people like Short and PStarr come off so often as if they and not the mods run the board, that ETP represents the de-facto party-line of peak-oil doomerism, and dissenters are branded trolls. By brute force and persistence they want to just sort of dominate the board and run everyone who doesn't bobblehead off via constant intimidation.

That's why a stronger hand to the moderation is what's needed. There's no real discussion going on. It's a turf-battle for what's left of this site's marginal mindshare, a means for some very insecure egos to grandstand.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 12:08:34

The U.S stock market is up $5T since Trump was elected. The wealth effect really works. The P/E is of course increasing exponentially. But as long as it works...who cares.


This is just another example of ballooning debt without creating new sources of revenue to pay for it. Higher P/E ratios have appeared as companies continue to buy back their own stock with borrowed money. The chances of this not folding up around our ears is just about zero. Gigantic amounts of debt have been generated with no means to pay it back being considered. If the end of the oil age doesn't bring the world economy down, modern financialization practices will!

******************************************************************************

OPEC is finally conceding that oil has a maximum price, or that its value to the economy is limited. Now they are saying that price is $55/ barrel.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-1 ... lowest-may

They are now within a couple of dollars of what it actually is: they are getting better with practice! Let's see how they handle next year?

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 12:28:46

Physicist Richard Jones in the UK sez Everything is not humming along in the UK.

http://www.softmachines.org/wordpress/?p=2126

Facing up to the UK’s economic problems

"First, we have to recognise we have a problem. It’s taken a financial crisis, nearly a decade of stagnation, and the political upheaval of Brexit, to make the establishment finally sit up and notice that not everything is brilliant in the UK economy"

"Basically, economic growth has stalled, we aren’t paying our way in the world, and we’re seeing the effect of that in weak economy and sour politics."

What a moron. Doesn't ever mention that the UK is out of oil and coal. How can they ever pay? They're gonna go fracking like Scamerica to get some hard currency called oil. The productivity bullshit is just pathetic.
At least 6 Billion dumbshits will die in The Oil Apocalypse.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 12:32:26

Those who follow the logic of Steve Keen that a slowdown in debt creation can cause recession will want to pay attention.


World GDP grew by $1.03 trillion last year, central banks conjured up $1.7 trillion in new currency. It looks like we are already going backward. That $1.7 trillion showed up in the GDP. The world is already behind $3.33 trillion from 2014. Including created unbacked fiat the world is already behind $6.7 trillion. But, what ever you do, don't call it a recession. The world's economy has always run backward?

Welcome to the new economics!

"When things get really bad you have to lie."

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 12:42:42

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Up +26% YoY

Average P/E 22

Caterpillar P/E 700

I'm not an investor, so I can't say if the numbers are indicating doom. But I'm not going to buy any Caterpillar shares right now.

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/
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