Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 12:13:54

The BIS has decided to crash and burn the global economy? The reset is really coming? I just hope that they will close the nuclear plants ahead of time so that they won't inherit a radioactive future when everything falls apart.
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 734
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 12:16:26

rockdoc123 wrote:
The oil service company's bill reflects all that work/energy.


and as I pointed out before that "bill" has been decreasing not increasing.


OK
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 734
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 12:20:20

Yoshua wrote:I just hope that they will close the nuclear plants ahead of time so that they won't inherit a radioactive future when everything falls apart.


The fact there are still hard-crash doomers who paint comical apocalyptic scenarios warms the cockles of my heart. How long before you talk about the Georgia guidestones and long-pork?
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 12:33:18

Yoshua wrote:
ERoEI is wellhead measurement.
EROI is a total measurement.

If ERoEI is 10:1 at the wellhead, then the crude still needs to be refined and distributed.


Nope. ERoEI is based on the TOTAL energy used to find, extract AND PROCESS oil. As I said above, ERoEI has declined greatly since the 20th century, but it is still positive. Your claims that ERoEI has gone negative are false.

In regard to fossil fuels, when oil was originally discovered, it took on average one barrel of oil to find, extract, and process about 100 barrels of oil. The ratio, for discovery of fossil fuels in the United States, has declined steadily over the last century from about 1000:1 in 1919 to only 5:1 in the 2010s.

Image
No wonder you have a difficult time understanding how the energy biz works. You don't even know what the terminology means. :lol:

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20378
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 12:44:55

shortonoil wrote:
What frigging planet do you live on?
A planet where real numbers have some value. Of course, a quantitative reply would carry a little more weight than "what friggin planet"? Between 1960 and 2005 world production increased at an annual rate of 5.46%. Between 2005 and 2015 it increased by 0.75%. A decline of 86%
How about these numbers:

From 1973(as far as this source goes back) to 2005, world crude oil production went from 55,679,000 bpd to 73,866,000 bpd. An average annual increase of 568,344 bpd. From 2005-2015, world crude oil production increased from 73,866,000 bpd to 80,448,000 bpd. An average annual increase of 658,200 bpd. An increase of 16%.

World Crude Oil Production
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3961
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 13:07:24

Opossum poop has jammed ETP Bozo's spread sheet abracadabra abacus again.

From 1960 to 1980 crude production tripled from ~20 million to ~60 million barrels per day (mb/d). That's a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~5.6%. Since 1980 crude production rose from ~60 to ~80 mb/d. That's a CAGR of <1%.
marmico
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 552
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 13:33:31

From 1960 to 1980 crude production tripled from ~20 million to ~60 million


Got any real numbers? Other than a counterbalance for your ass what do you use your brain for? If your head wasn't full of rocks, and your neck wasn't extended you would tip over backwards.

Production:

1960 - 7.66 Gb
1980 - 21.74 Gb

1960 to 1980 annual growth rate 8.75%. Total production 332.75 Gb.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4967
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 13:45:41

Production:

1960 - 7.66 Gb
1980 - 21.74 Gb

1960 to 1980 annual growth rate 8.75%


Wrong again ETP Bozo. The CAGR with that data is 5.35%. I did dispatch the truant grade schoolers to pull the poop out of your abacas. I guess they haven't arrived.
marmico
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 552
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 14:05:06

The BIS has decided to crash and burn the global economy? The reset is really coming?


It really looks that way! The BOJ, ECB and FED have all made announcements on starting tighter monetary policy, and reducing their balance sheets. The market is still saying "I'll believe it when I see it. They can't, it will crash the equity and bond markets". Well.... yes it will! The hobbit is telling everyone "it will be like watching paint dry"? It will be like watching paint dry on the day that the earth quake arrived. It will completely kill what is remaining of the the oil industry! What the damn fools don't realize is that once it gets shut down it will never again be restarted. It is too far down the entropy rabbit hole for that to ever happen.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4967
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 14:21:28

Mnuchin Secretary of the Treasury went to Fort Knox to check the gold reserves. Germany has moved all its gold back to Germany. Russia has been building up its gold reserves. China has been buying all the gold that she has managed to find to build up its reserves.

Well...even Soros has shifted his wealth into gold.

In case of a global currency reset all paper wealth will turn into smoke. So everybody is shifting into tangibles.

They might try to orchestrate a controlled demolition of the global economy and try to protect the core nations. Nations that are important to maintain a modern civilization. Parts of America, Europe, Russia, China, Middle East might be allowed to collapse with most of the world.

The Basel III rules will force the bank to end financing to non performing corporations and sovereigns. A large portion of the economy will implode when they are cut off from financing.
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 734
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby dirtyharry » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 14:22:39

shortonoil wrote:
The BIS has decided to crash and burn the global economy? The reset is really coming?


It really looks that way! The BOJ, ECB and FED have all made announcements on starting tighter monetary policy, and reducing their balance sheets. The market is still saying "I'll believe it when I see it. They can't, it will crash the equity and bond markets". Well.... yes it will! The hobbit is telling everyone "it will be like watching paint dry"? It will be like watching paint dry on the day that the earth quake arrived. It will completely kill what is remaining of the the oil industry! What the damn fools don't realize is that once it gets shut down it will never again be restarted. It is too far down the entropy rabbit hole for that to ever happen.


Correct Shorty . The first victim of the FED tightening and increasing interest rates is going to be the ^junk bond^ market and that is where all the finance for the ^junk^shale was coming . This implosion/explosion will start soon . ^ You can run but you can t hide^ .The great Saint Ronald Reagan . Anyway the process was already on tour as the financiers had realised that LTO was a loosing bet . The FED decision will only accelerate the process .
dirtyharry
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri 07 Apr 2017, 09:53:43

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 14:29:06

There isn't energy left for even a small civilization? Coal and nat gas and a little oil?
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 734
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 14:49:15

A planet where real numbers have some value. Of course, a quantitative reply would carry a little more weight than "what friggin planet"? Between 1960 and 2005 world production increased at an annual rate of 5.46%. Between 2005 and 2015 it increased by 0.75%. A decline of 86%. Demand can not increase faster than supply. Like I said most of the last decade's increase has only been to satisfy the industry's ever increasing demand. Wells get deeper, viscosity gets worse, refinery yields go down, and as always, water cut increases. At a WOR of 40 to 45 to 1 they are all shut in. Every time, and every last one of them.


You are definitely a twit.....look at the chart I posted. It shows consumption which is how demand is measured continually increasing and as I pointed out also the oil companies are definitely not consuming more than they ever have....that is sheer nonsense. Engines are more efficient, they are converting systems to natural gas rather than diesel. A simple plot of the number of rigs active versus demand/consumption will show you the two are unrelated. As well arguing that the rate of demand increase suggests demand is lowering is as stupid as it comes. Demand is positive, it fluctuates quite a bit but it has been positive and hence increasing (not decreasing as you suggest) for decades undeterred, the rate of increase is not important.

Wells aren't deeper and even the long reach horizontals are cheaper now than they were several years ago, taking less time to drill and complete. Viscosity is not worse in fact in North America it is better than it has been due to all the light oil being produced. Water cuts are not increasing everywhere and in most places dealing with additional water is not a costly process.

And the classic, you state at a water to oil ratio of 40 to 1 which is equal to 2% oil they are all shut in, well given that is for all intents and purposes 100% water production, of course, they would be shut in, Captain Obvious strikes again. :roll: But in reality, most fields are shut-in for reasons other than water....depleted pressure below line pressure is the main one, Opex higher than revenues the other.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5415
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 15:28:33

Correct Shorty . The first victim of the FED tightening and increasing interest rates is going to be the ^junk bond^ market and that is where all the finance for the ^junk^shale was coming . This implosion/explosion will start soon . ^ You can run but you can t hide^ .The great Saint Ronald Reagan . Anyway the process was already on tour as the financiers had realised that LTO was a loosing bet . The FED decision will only accelerate the process .


Worth repeating.

It would be interesting to know when they figured out that LTO was a loosing proposition. We have been saying it for more than 5 years, and Leharrere was saying it long before us. I've got a strong suspicion that they pumped this monkey up on purpose. The whole scam was incredibility well organized. If my spidery senses are correct we have been getting set up for some time. Someone has a plan, and I am quit sure that it is not in my best interests!
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4967
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby godq3 » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 19:12:58

Shortonoil - since you have been proven wrong countless times on this thread, you should just delete your account, and go fishing for fish.
Some underground hiphop :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBtYAogPSG0 (who are you, where're you coming from, how it's going).

2‰
User avatar
godq3
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 143
Joined: Fri 23 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Tricity, PL

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby creedoninmo » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 22:18:49

The world game is changing right in front of our eyes. Wall street knows that it can not allow the dollar and oil to drop further and the rest of the world is fighting to save their own currencies. China is setting up their own oil and gold exchanges. Venezuela is trading outside the dollar. Russia has lots of oil and is protecting itself from a U.S. invasion. Saudi Arabia will probably become a failed state. It's everyone for themselves and save the currency.
creedoninmo
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 147
Joined: Sun 15 Jan 2017, 09:52:20

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 22:44:56

shortonoil wrote:
The BIS has decided to crash and burn the global economy? The reset is really coming?


It really looks that way! The BOJ, ECB and FED have all made announcements on starting tighter monetary policy, and reducing their balance sheets. The market is still saying "I'll believe it when I see it. They can't, it will crash the equity and bond markets". Well.... yes it will! The hobbit is telling everyone "it will be like watching paint dry"? It will be like watching paint dry on the day that the earth quake arrived. It will completely kill what is remaining of the the oil industry! What the damn fools don't realize is that once it gets shut down it will never again be restarted. It is too far down the entropy rabbit hole for that to ever happen.


This should be good. Care to coalesce that drivel into a concrete short-term prediction so we can start cooking up egg for your face?

Image
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby donstewart » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 07:05:43

Jim Rickards on Central Banks

https://dailyreckoning.com/quantitative ... -lead-qe4/

For what it is worth, his comments are pretty much in line with Mr. Hill's.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 673
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 07:30:31

The world game is changing right in front of our eyes. Wall street knows that it can not allow the dollar and oil to drop further and the rest of the world is fighting to save their own currencies.


We estimate that right now that a long term price of about $40 would produce an avalanche of bankruptcies in the oil business. Wall Street has been trying desperately to prevent a fall in prices any further down than about $50. They haven't been able to get it much higher than $50 for any extended period for over two years. But this is a depletion problem, not a monetary supply problem. As they work feverishly to keep oil at $50 the bottom is moving up. As they work to keep their $50 number in place, the $40 point is moving to $51.

Depletion is relentless! It does not take vacations.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4967
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby marmico » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 08:06:50

For what it is worth, his comments are pretty much in line with Mr. Hill's.


Too funny. Who knew that the ETP Bozo was a gold nutter? Some fry cook with an abracadabra abacas managing the vegetable oil in momma's crab shack who can't solve compound interest data surely must be an expert in solving crude oil thermodynamic differential equations.

Image
marmico
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 552
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Next

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AdamB and 19 guests