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PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby tagio » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 08:41:53

marmico said:
2019 is the medium term for the ETP MAP. Do you not find it hard to imagine $41.16 in 85 days (2018) in the short term and $1.68 in 1195 days (2021) in the long term? The original ETP MAP was $44.42 on October 1


Your deliberate obtuseness and clownish behavior surrounding the ETP is sorely trying. There are a few ways to really critique the model or to suspect that it cannot be relied on and will not continue to be an accurate predicter of price, but insofar as one is looking for real-world prices to discredit the model, time will tell whether the ETP model proves sufficiently accurate. At least the model's underlying bases concerning the reality of depletion and the fact that the laws of thermodynamics apply to the oil industry are head and shoulders above the child-like simplicity of simply adding up resources and counting barrels, oohing and ahhing over the fact that the number of barrels produced continues on an upward trend without any analysis of how much energy is actually reaching the non-oil producing economy and concluding that there's no problem going forward.

While drawing a nice, smooth curve is useful to show the trend predicted by the ETP model, IT IS A NOT A MATHEMATICALLY CORRECT EXTENSION OF THE MODEL. The ETP maximum affordable prices are ANNUAL AVERAGES, because that is the information that was input and used to derive the shape of things to come. The only accurate, non-misleading way to present the information is to provide a graph that shows only price points at the end of each year representing the average for that entire year. An AVERAGE price means that - surprise - some amounts during the year are ABOVE the average and some amounts are BELOW the average. The actual movement of the price during the year is not and cannot be predicted by the ETP and at some points during the year the fact that the price is ABOVE the average does not prove the ETP is wrong. The only way to discredit the model's predictive ability regarding price is to compare the actual average price for the entire year against the model's predicted average price for the year. Even then you are not done, because the model has a correlation factor of about 95% - in other words it has a 5% margin of error, so a discrepancy still does not disprove the model if it is within a 5% margin of error.

I am not even a mathematician just a lawyer and I can figure this out and recognize the utter stupidity of your remark (or deliberate attempt at obfuscation), because I actually understand the meaning of words, including the apparently very difficult-to-understand word, "average." Apparently, your target audience is people who are too intellectually lazy to understand the ETP model before trying to critique it. Those people really deserve you.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby marmico » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 08:49:43

Tagio, you lack both language comprehension and arithmetic acuity.

Maximum means maximum not average. Go to the wood shed and see if you can fix the broken abracabra abacas of the ETP Bozo. The dude can't even solve compound interest.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 09:43:31

shortonoil wrote:
What? Now I'm confused. Looking at the MAP price curve (Yoshua's recent post in this thread), it looks like economic "doom" is being forecast for oil in 2020 or very shortly thereafter, since that would have crude oil prices completely collapsing.


The 2030 convergence growth is calculated from an equation that uses the minimum theoretical waste heat production from a process. For WTI 37.5° API crude that is 29%. It is the minimum amount of waste heat that must be produced for the process to go forward. 2030 is an absolute best case scenario.

The Maximum Affordability Curve is derived from the Etp Model's output and this graph:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_008.htm

which is compiled from data taken from the EIA, and the World Bank. Using the economic data available we'll see the industry in complete collapse by around 2023. Pick your poison?

The rate of the economic collapse is dependent on how long existing assets can be economically converted to consumables. Looking at the debt ratio (Debt/GDP) of 342% puts that 2023 date within range. That would make the entire world one big Japan.

Thank you for clearly answering my question. I just wanted something comprehensible on which to judge global oil prices going forward vs. ETP theory, and those two statements/dates didn't seem consistent to me.

Now I think I have the picture, at least generally re what the MAP is supposed to be predicting.

You do realize the Japan situation is largely due to demographics (an aging, very economically conservative population overall), right? Not that they don't have much oil at all. That was true prior to 1990, when the Japanese economy was generally the envy of the world until it fell off a cliff.

The rest of the world has a much less severe problem as far as demographics, which is likely to be partially mitigated by robotics in coming decades (i.e. robotics can help monitor and care for the elderly).

If you're referring to the Japanese debt bomb magnitude, I don't see the 100%ish GDP of some of the hapless worst debt offenders like the US reaching the scale of the Japanese debt problem within a handful or even fifteen years, as bad as their fiscal discipline is. (And as bad as Japan's problem is, they're managing to tread water, despite their eye-watering debt levels).

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth

By the way, where is the 342% debt ratio to GDP coming from? For what? Japan's debt to GDP looks to be leveling off at about 250%. No other country is remotely close to that in the forseeable future.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 10:03:00

It looks like we are very close to the edge.  This is the real moment of truth for the Etp model and for civilization itself.  If the oil price drops significantly below the curve again, as I expect it is about to do, it will provide very strong proof that the Etp model is correct.  And as prices fall back into the 40's (or lower) again, the whole industry will be in very big trouble, just as forecast.

Image[/img]
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 10:21:00

AdamB wrote:
ralfy wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:The world, especially the first world, is becoming more energy efficient. For example, due to the CAFE standard, the US auto fleet has a mandated efficiency improvement of about 5% per year for new cars. Almost all devices from furnaces and A/C systems to electronics to appliances, etc. are getting more energy efficient as time passes.

Don't take my word for it. Google "energy efficiency per dollar of GDP". Here's an example: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-ene ... -data.html

Making stuff up doesn't change the facts on the ground.


In capitalist systems involving competition, the goal of efficiency is to enable greater consumption.


Horse pucky you warmed over LATOC crank. The goal of efficiency is to enable a competitive advantage for those who achieve it. Read a book already. Hell, read a WIKI already, and stop reciting your warmed over LATOC dogma without thinking.

It's all about finding a way to put a "doom" spin on things. Never mind that the effiency inspired by capitalism is a good thing. Never mind that people (and governments) CAN change if they are forced to. Never mind that things are beginning to change, i.e. renewable energy and automation, even if far more slowly than desirable, and even if humanity continues to stupidly grow the global population in their localized perceived self-interest.

At least there appear to be far more people around here that are willing to look at data and trends and concede that the "in our face" doom meme doesn't seem to hold water after constantly failing to materialize in over a decade -- and to the rational, not appearing imminent (barring large external random catastrophe like nuclear war or giant meteor).
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 10:36:00

Yoshua wrote:It looks like we are very close to the edge. 


You know, someone comes here, day in and day out, and reads enough posts like yours, and you can't help but see people like you as worthless chicken-littles who are capable of doing nothing but wring their hands over the end being very close (i.e. nigh). It's ALWAYS nigh at peakoil.com. It's nigh today, will be nigh tomorrow, and will be nigh in another 10 years.

I mean, let's get real. What makes it so timely that you post "It looks like we are very close to the edge." today rather than last month or next month? There's nothing there. You're looking at a chart that means nothing, really. Oil has been cheap for years now and that has been generally a good thing for the world economy, despite causing turmoil in the oil patch.

I just think some people, as part of their daily ritual, need to get up each day and work themselves in a lather and then post the usual "end is nigh" boilerplate on peakoil.com as a means of broadcasting their own inflated sense of insight.
Last edited by asg70 on Thu 05 Oct 2017, 10:36:46, edited 1 time in total.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 10:36:12

Yoshua wrote:It looks like we are very close to the edge.  This is the real moment of truth for the Etp model and for civilization itself.  If the oil price drops significantly below the curve again, as I expect it is about to do, it will provide very strong proof that the Etp model is correct.  And as prices fall back into the 40's (or lower) again, the whole industry will be in very big trouble, just as forecast.

Image[/img]

Close to the edge of what? Short was just predicting a rapid fresh collapse of oil through $50 on Monday within the next couple of days. And yet that didn't happen and we're currently rising near $51 as I speak. Of course, if he (like the clowns at zerohedge) could reliably predict prices or economic events ahead of time, he could become unimaginably rich just by consistently investing on such predictions.

So, so much for accurate short term predictions.

I guess we'll need until 2018, or 2019, or 2020, or 2023, or 2030, or where-ever short decides to place the goal posts as the future unfolds, to see about the longer term trends. But if you're so certain you're right, why not just place a huge financial bet on oil futures declining short term and intermediate term, and make a ton of money while you wait for ETP to be proven right?

By the way, this is no different than the test I give for the financial advice newsletter writer (these day blogger) types, who are always hawking their "sage advice" for a fee -- yet somehow need that newsletter income, despite their supposed ability to predict prices of financial instrument(s) X. Funny how that works. (NOT - epic fail for at least 99% of them).
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 10:39:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Close to the edge of what?


That's just it. Those posts come across as merely an expression of vague dread. It would break the formula to actually paint in details. If they're gonna do that, it's just gonna be rendered in sarcastic mutant zombie biker caricature anyway.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 11:09:05

marmico wrote:Tagio, you lack both language comprehension and arithmetic acuity.

Maximum means maximum not average. Go to the wood shed and see if you can fix the broken abracabra abacas of the ETP Bozo. The dude can't even solve compound interest.

Evidence of Narcisistic Personality Disorder, a consequence of prolonged/extended breastfeeding. The complex is evinced by self-absorbed importance and distancing, blockplaying beyond adolescence. The patient is often observed in word-garble and self-language referencing. Look for certain repetitive cue words.

Time to drop the teat, marmy. The other kids are already in short pants.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 11:36:23

"t's all about finding a way to put a "doom" spin on things. Never mind that the effiency inspired by capitalism is a good thing. "

In a make-believe world where God and America and Donald Trump lead us, this may be true. But unfortunately that is make believe. The planet is a fragile limited entity. It can only serve up so much efficiency before it poops out. You guys need to read up on your Jevons paradox. Unfortunately for all guys, its going to kill us.

We use up the natural-capital (that's a fancy-talk for Mother Earth) at our peril.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 11:37:42

Tagio, you lack both language comprehension and arithmetic acuity.


You lack anything that even remotely resembles a brain.

@Tagio, were you one of those who switched your major from engineering to pre-law in your junior year. My brother did that, and it made a hell of a lawyer out of him. When a lawyer has enough engineering background to try utilities rate cases it makes a powerful combination. Here we are dealing with troglodytes who switched in first grade from "don't eat the paste" to "color in between the lines" majors. Marmy still eats the paste.

It's breaking apart right now, just not in TrumpLand. The Dow and The Planet Earth are ready for a major correction.


The problem is that we are trying to analyze the situation through a broken set of premises. If the GDP to Debt Ratio was used this system would have already long since fallen apart. A GDP/ Debt ratio of 342% in standard economic parlance means that the economy would be dead. It should mean that the world economy is insolvent, and no one would want to accept any of the system's currencies.

What that means is that what was taught in ECON 101 is just not holding up in the real world. Economics lacks some key concepts. Such as usable energy, depletion, and the conversion of assets to consumables. Those aspects are taking place at present, and there are no metrics to identify, and quantify those processes. Unlike models based on physical laws, economic models have a very restricted scalability.

That has placed us in a sort of a limbo land; why is there supposedly no inflation in spite of gigantic central bank printing, why are demand curves following supply curves, why hasn't yield curve tightening collapsed the banks. Our economic models are not supplying many indications of a tipping point. All they are supplying is bigger, and a more mind boggling set of numbers. $250 trillion in debt is incomprehensible. At an average 3% rate of return that is a 114 year pay back period. The world has already spent the next 4½ generations of income.

At some point we will have consumed enough of the system's assets to collapse it. It will no longer retain enough of them to keep functioning. That is a point that economics is powerless to determine. Our next best guess is the petroleum situation; that is saying that some time between now, and 2030 the wheels will fall off. Waking up to find that we are back to 1920, 1860, 1630, or 1250 is going to be a shock.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 12:10:38

shortonoil wrote:The problem is that we are trying to analyze the situation through a broken set of premises. If the GDP to Debt Ratio was used this system would have already long since fallen apart. A GDP/ Debt ratio of 342% in standard economic parlance means that the economy would be dead. It should mean that the world economy is insolvent, and no one would want to accept any of the system's currencies.

There you go again. Speaking of broken premises (or claims) WHERE ON EARTH do you get this 342% debt to GDP ratio you keep citing?

If you're going to toss out such statistics, without meaningful definitions or credible sources as "facts" to base your arguments on, why should any aspect of your arguments be trusted?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 12:41:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:The problem is that we are trying to analyze the situation through a broken set of premises. If the GDP to Debt Ratio was used this system would have already long since fallen apart. A GDP/ Debt ratio of 342% in standard economic parlance means that the economy would be dead. It should mean that the world economy is insolvent, and no one would want to accept any of the system's currencies.

There you go again. Speaking of broken premises (or claims) WHERE ON EARTH do you get this 342% debt to GDP ratio you keep citing?

If you're going to toss out such statistics, without meaningful definitions or credible sources as "facts" to base your arguments on, why should any aspect of your arguments be trusted?

Short's explained his definition, sources and the method he uses to generate his conclusions. They are transparent and documented. You must have a reading or patience dis-ability.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 13:06:49

Geniuses in Towers in 2017: "We have to ban the ICE by 2030"

Translation: "Coal can't power Coal (Juice for Ev Paradise) so we are screwed because that is not something for nothing (Shit coal begetting even shittier grade coal.)"

So they legislate something-for-nothing with windmills and solar and then wonder "Hmm, wonder why Spain is bankrupt?"

The whole thing is a Gong Show.

The finanshual "Industry" is a farce of massive looting. The CEO crooks obviously believe there is no future.
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby donstewart » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 13:42:23

global debt to GDP ratio
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-2 ... on-327-gdp

The figures are from the 1st quarter of 2017, and were merely reprinted by Zero Hedge...they are not numbers COMPILED by Zero Hedge. You can research further, but I think they do not include unfunded liabilities.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby donstewart » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 13:52:52

Modern Monetary Theory and Fiscal Catastrophe?

https://renegadeinc.com/jared-bernstein ... urrencies/

The article is written by Bill Black, an economist at the University of Missouri in Kansas City. Jared Bernstein was on the staff of Joe Biden.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 15:32:10

There you go again. Speaking of broken premises (or claims) WHERE ON EARTH do you get this 342% debt to GDP ratio you keep citing?


World debt $250 trillion, world GDP $73 trillion. 250/73 = 3.42. This isn't rocket science? There are estimates of world debt from $220 trillion to $280. Depends on which economist you believe. $250 is just an average, but no matter which number you choose the ratio is very bad by any accepted accounting standard. Planet Earth is broke! Does anyone know where the bankruptcy courts for the solar system are located?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 18:08:20

https://naturalnews.com/2017-06-04-the- ... ture.html#
The world is drowning in debt… here’s why it will IMPLODE across the UK, USA and China in the near future
"The bottom line is, there is much debt in the world today, it’s getting larger, and the lion’s share by far is held by the world’s “richest” countries. Given the interconnectivity of commerce between nations due to globalism, which is the intertwining of production distributed among many markets in many regions, just one debt collapse by a single major economy could snowball, crashing the entire world financial order." So tell us all ye optimists why exactly this is NOT a big problem and all this Debt will not blow up. I am all for fairy tales.
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 18:21:59

onlooker wrote:https://naturalnews.com/2017-06-04-the-world-is-drowning-in-debt-heres-why-it-will-implode-across-the-uk-usa-and-china-in-the-near-future.html#
The world is drowning in debt… here’s why it will IMPLODE across the UK, USA and China in the near future
"The bottom line is, there is much debt in the world today, it’s getting larger, and the lion’s share by far is held by the world’s “richest” countries. Given the interconnectivity of commerce between nations due to globalism, which is the intertwining of production distributed among many markets in many regions, just one debt collapse by a single major economy could snowball, crashing the entire world financial order." So tell us all ye optimists why exactly this is NOT a big problem and all this Debt will not blow up. I am all for fairy tales.

onlooker, I surprised to see you fall for the gold-bug nonsense. You come off sounding like Rand Paul or one of those peak-oil doomer gloomers :x Haven't you heard that debt is good? Famous brilliant Economist Paul Krugman says so lol

'Debt is Good' New York Times, AUG. 21, 2015
We haven't heard from him in along time. I'd lay low also if I were him lol
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 18:26:40

haha, yes I am preaching to the choir. Because trying to illuminate those in denial is alas a lost cause. Hey no need to worry about resources since we can print money from thin air endlessly hehe.
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