marmico said:

2019 is the medium term for the ETP MAP. Do you not find it hard to imagine $41.16 in 85 days (2018) in the short term and $1.68 in 1195 days (2021) in the long term? The original ETP MAP was $44.42 on October 1

Your deliberate obtuseness and clownish behavior surrounding the ETP is sorely trying. There are a few ways to really critique the model or to suspect that it cannot be relied on and will not continue to be an accurate predicter of price, but insofar as one is looking for real-world prices to discredit the model, time will tell whether the ETP model proves sufficiently accurate. At least the model's underlying bases concerning the reality of depletion and the fact that the laws of thermodynamics apply to the oil industry are head and shoulders above the child-like simplicity of simply adding up resources and counting barrels, oohing and ahhing over the fact that the number of barrels produced continues on an upward trend without any analysis of how much energy is actually reaching the non-oil producing economy and concluding that there's no problem going forward.

While drawing a nice, smooth curve is useful to show the trend predicted by the ETP model, IT IS A NOT A MATHEMATICALLY CORRECT EXTENSION OF THE MODEL. The ETP maximum affordable prices are ANNUAL AVERAGES, because that is the information that was input and used to derive the shape of things to come. The only accurate, non-misleading way to present the information is to provide a graph that shows only price points at the end of each year representing the average for that entire year. An AVERAGE price means that - surprise - some amounts during the year are ABOVE the average and some amounts are BELOW the average. The actual movement of the price during the year is not and cannot be predicted by the ETP and at some points during the year the fact that the price is ABOVE the average does not prove the ETP is wrong. The only way to discredit the model's predictive ability regarding price is to compare the actual average price for the entire year against the model's predicted average price for the year. Even then you are not done, because the model has a correlation factor of about 95% - in other words it has a 5% margin of error, so a discrepancy still does not disprove the model if it is within a 5% margin of error.

I am not even a mathematician just a lawyer and I can figure this out and recognize the utter stupidity of your remark (or deliberate attempt at obfuscation), because I actually understand the meaning of words, including the apparently very difficult-to-understand word, "average." Apparently, your target audience is people who are too intellectually lazy to understand the ETP model before trying to critique it. Those people really deserve you.