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PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 17:43:02

pstarr wrote:stay with the conversation, leave your imagination


OK, so doom isn't nigh. I guess we can end the thread, then. Nice to see you've finally seen the light.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 18:10:22

What? Now I'm confused. Looking at the MAP price curve (Yoshua's recent post in this thread), it looks like economic "doom" is being forecast for oil in 2020 or very shortly thereafter, since that would have crude oil prices completely collapsing.


The 2030 convergence growth is calculated from an equation that uses the minimum theoretical waste heat production from a process. For WTI 37.5° API crude that is 29%. It is the minimum amount of waste heat that must be produced for the process to go forward. 2030 is an absolute best case scenario.

The Maximum Affordability Curve is derived from the Etp Model's output and this graph:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_008.htm

which is compiled from data taken from the EIA, and the World Bank. Using the economic data available we'll see the industry in complete collapse by around 2023. Pick your poison?

The rate of the economic collapse is dependent on how long existing assets can be economically converted to consumables. Looking at the debt ratio (Debt/GDP) of 342% puts that 2023 date within range. That would make the entire world one big Japan.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 18:42:09

ralfy wrote:Oil costs are not low, but oil price is.


You don't know any more about oil production costs than pstarr does pumice, or sandstone.

I'm pretty sure you don't even know the difference between CapX and OpX either, so you are REALLY in the dark when it comes to understanding production costs.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 18:44:40

ralfy wrote:The irony is that AdamB actually ended up supporting my argument and countering his own: a competitive advantage leads to more consumption, as competitors open up new markets to sell more goods, engage in planned obsolescence, and create more credit to invest in businesses to produce more goods and services to create even more credit.


I don't recall supporting anything that a LATOCian has ever said, other than agreeing with Matt Savinar when he announced that you, along with the other posters on his website, are religious psychos with daddy issues. His claim on LATOC posters, that I guess I would have to agree with. But your nonsensical economic arguments? Garbage.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 18:49:29

shortonoil wrote:The end of the oil age is close at hand.


That's what you said more than a decade ago. Except back then, you were claiming oil price would go up. And weren't using a spreadsheet to tell lies, focusing more on blaming Bush for everything, and cheering on the intellectual honesty of Lyndon LaRouche. You don't mention those two in your oil story telling much anymore...any reason why? Doesn't as play as well in your pretend math guise now, although it isn't as though you've hidden what you are doing, right?

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 19:04:27

They are right. You should tone it down.

Of course it's about EROEI


True; when the energy returned and the energy invested are going in opposite directions the value of it is changing rapidly. At some point one could expect a phase change. That would imply that a fast crash is possible. We know that an ERoEI of 6.9:1 is the dead state which would initiate a fast crash. The question is can you even get to it? Or in other words, how far can the society be stretched before its very fabric unravels.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 19:15:25

donstewart wrote:How does this relate to the ETP? The ETP implicitly assumes that it is free energy from oil that enables economic growth.


The ETP does no such thing. But it DOES assume that there are less resources available then actually exist. The ETP assumes that regression equations are predictive, when even the author has publically stated that they are not. The ETP excludes oil production that the authors decide they don't like, time periods they don't want to include, is entirely dependent on nominal prices which relate to each other randomly as far as the regression is concerned, and the authors avoid presenting it to those with experience in the various fields involved. For obvious reasons, which I have explained previously, and shorty has run as far and as fast as he can from meeting face to face. Just because someone claims 2+2=5 doesn't make it so, but those collecting $$ to make stuff up just don't care. You seem like a reasonable person Don, you should know better than to pretend this is where you find insight on this topic.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 19:45:08

shortonoil wrote:
They are right. You should tone it down.

Of course it's about EROEI


True; when the energy returned and the energy invested are going in opposite directions the value of it is changing rapidly. At some point one could expect a phase change. That would imply that a fast crash is possible. We know that an ERoEI of 6.9:1 is the dead state which would initiate a fast crash. The question is can you even get to it? Or in other words, how far can the society be stretched before its very fabric unravels.

It's breaking apart right now, just not in TrumpLand. The Dow and The Planet Earth are ready for a major correction

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 19:47:37

You're all 6 months away from your new careers:

Rock Throwers
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 20:12:41

People, I have an announcement:

Spain is dead.

It blew its feeble wad on the useless junk called Solar Energy.

Junkables are supposed to power the other useless junk: The electric vehicle. You know the one with a crook inside freeloading on the already bankrupt oil and coal complex.
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 20:17:03

BW Hill is at least 40 years late in calling the End of the Oil Age.

The Coal Based Slave Trade has been kicking the butt of the Oil-Military complex since 1980.

The brain dead twit who said Military Power equates to Economic Power apparently doesn't get that ordinary missiles + radar can easily knock down the few B-2 and F-35 "Stealth" planes. BW Hill better stop being a Grand Philosopher and get to work on a plane that actually is invisible to radar and eyesight as well. It has to be completely invisible and have no IR signature.

Otherwise you'all be in a slave camp within 6 months.
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 20:26:26

The Physicists at CERN will save Spain. Actually The Physicists are the stupidest people on earth. Put up another nuclear reactor they say. They're so dumb they don't even know the oil complex is bankrupt. They probe the vacuum with their LHC and don't even know Europe is to broke to keep the lights on.
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby creedoninmo » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 20:39:08

I take it StarvingLion that you are a believer in fast collapse.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 20:44:41

creedoninmo wrote:I take it StarvingLion that you are a believer in fast collapse.


Nope. Much much worse

Total Apocalypse
I plan on zapping 6 billion human pests with a space based Doomsday Machine.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby donstewart » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 21:00:55

@AdamB
Regarding your frequently repeated statement:
The ETP assumes that regression equations are predictive, when even the author has publically stated that they are not.

Your statement makes no sense from a scientific standpoint. A regression MAY be the best evidence anyone has. If so, it is the best guide for action. Of course, a true scientist is always on the lookout for additional evidence, such as an experiment which is capable of testing the direction of causality. But the world is not necessarily configured in such a way that the scientist can actually perform the experiment.

As for the ETP model, Mr. Hill has explained the paucity of reliable information, the thermodynamic principles which dictate the expected shape of the curves, and the software used to fit the curves to the available and reliable information. Unless you have a better suggestion, then the ETP model is the best we have.

When better data or better methods become available, the ETP model will pass into history.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 21:11:30

StarvingLion wrote:You're all 6 months away from your new careers:
Rock Throwers


If that turns out not to be true, will you promise never to come back here again?
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby creedoninmo » Wed 04 Oct 2017, 22:17:53

Thanks Yoshua for your chart from Tuesday showing the maximum affordable price curve and the various weekly moving averages. Presently I find it hard to imagine oil at 26 dollars a barrel in 2019. If, however, the maximum affordable price chart proves accurate, I don't see the dollar surviving the next couple of years.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 07:01:14

Presently I find it hard to imagine oil at 26 dollars a barrel in 2019.


It wasn't long ago (Feb. '16) that people found it hard to image that oil would hit $28. Our imaginations have been a little unreliable over the last few years.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby marmico » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 07:09:21

Presently I find it hard to imagine oil at 26 dollars a barrel in 2019.


2019 is the medium term for the ETP MAP. Do you not find it hard to imagine $41.16 in 85 days (2018) in the short term and $1.68 in 1195 days (2021) in the long term? The original ETP MAP was $44.42 on October 1.

We'll just ignore that the ETP Bozo will be arithmetically eliminated from his 2017 wager (walking the walk is a lot tougher than talking the talk) in 45 days.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 07:22:27

[quote]Your statement makes no sense from a scientific standpoint.[quote]

He is replacing "reference models" with "regression models". He thinks that every word that starts with an "R" has the same meaning. It is no wonder that he doesn't get along with his wife. Remove the garbage gets confused with regurgitate the garbage. It's been stuck to the kitchen floor for a year.
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