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Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 10:48:59

Not exactly like that because natural disasters are transient. As bad as the situation may be immediately after a natural disaster, it calms down. In order for something to be truly doomy, you can't have a recovery.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 10:53:11

There’s an apocryphal story that in 1787, during the journey of Empress Catherine II to Crimea, Prince Grigory Potemkin, the governor of the region, erected fabricated villages along the Dnieper River, which would be disassembled after she passed by, and rebuilt again downstream overnight.

When one examines the collapses of the tech bubble and the housing bubble, it’s evident that one of the central elements of those collapses was the gradual recognition by investors that the overvalued pieces of paper they were holding were actually little Potemkin Villages; temporarily glorious and impressive on the surface, but backed by much less than investors had imagined was there. What sort of “catalyst” is needed for a Potemkin Village or a Ponzi scheme to disappoint? Only the gradual or sudden discovery of the reality behind it: the recognition that there is no “there” there.

Investors presently appear to be taking past investment returns and economic growth at face value, without considering their underlying drivers at all. My impression is that while the U.S. may very well encounter credit strains or other economic dislocations in the coming years, nothing is actually required for yet another equity market collapse except the gradual recognition by investors of a reality that already exists. Strip away the effects of short-term cyclical factors that have now been largely exhausted, and it becomes clear that the financial markets have again become a Potemkin Village.....


https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170911.htm

https://youtu.be/uPCzjHPS--U?t=49
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 11:05:33

Hiding money, gold, or bit coins under your mattress is not a sound financial investment plan.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby godq3 » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 11:18:06

Short, time to recalculate ETP MAP again after few days - WTI at 50 USD/b.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 11:25:35

Hiding money, gold, or bit coins under your mattress is not a sound financial investment plan.


It is when investment opportunities are producing negative returns. Adjusted for the dilution of the currency that is almost everything today. Unless one has a pipeline to a CB, one's odds of winning are better at the track. A 1% savings account with a 15% credit card is not winning. Joe Smuck is getting hammered right into the ground.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 14:04:37

shortonoil wrote:
Hiding money, gold, or bit coins under your mattress is not a sound financial investment plan.


It is when investment opportunities are producing negative returns. Adjusted for the dilution of the currency that is almost everything today. Unless one has a pipeline to a CB, one's odds of winning are better at the track. A 1% savings account with a 15% credit card is not winning. Joe Smuck is getting hammered right into the ground.


They could always get entrepreneurial and start a doom consultation site.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby donstewart » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 15:43:25

From Tim Morgan's Blog

The “multiple currency crash” scenario is hard to think through, but makes logical sense. Currency A crashes, so country A defaults. That blows a huge hole in the balance sheet of country B, so currency B crashes – and so on.

I’m planning a new discussion soon on crash scenarios. Basically, a lot of people expect one – financial, economic, political, social – so what I’ll do is put down one scenario and throw it open for discussion.

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 16:15:26

Short, time to recalculate ETP MAP again after few days - WTI at 50 USD/b.


The Etp Map is not ours. We never developed it; this is what we developed:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

The only thing affected by moving the energy half way point to its true calculated level (2011.67 as opposed to 2012.0) was 2013, and 2014. 2017 is still well below the curve. The price would have to go well above $70 for the remainder of the year to violate the curve. If that happens Iran just nuked Saudi Arabia so don't worry about it!

Maybe next year at $45.36?

http://www.thehillsgroup.org
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 21:48:39

shortonoil wrote:The Etp Map is not ours. We never developed it; this is what we developed:


I wish you would stop using the first-person-plural. There is no 'we'. It's just a marketing tactic you use to prove that you're not just a lone gunman in a basement.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 22:07:02

I always get a chuckle when shorty uses the word "we" as well, as if he represents a group of big time consultants busy in a large conference room. The alternative explanation is there is more than one person that lives in shorty's head.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 22:32:06

Cog wrote:I always get a chuckle when shorty uses the word "we" as well, as if he represents a group of big time consultants busy in a large conference room. The alternative explanation is there is more than one person that lives in shorty's head.


Yep. Shorty, be careful how you come across. Honesty is the best policy.

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It's hard to take you seriously when you can't just admit you're just an isolated schmuck with a manifesto and a dire need for attention.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 07:05:46

I wish you would stop using the first-person-plural.


Keep wishing. Who's "I"? The mass of mindless trolls that populate this site. Why don't all you "I"s take a course in mathematics or physics so that you can respond to us in some intelligent manner rather than producing a continual stream of ad hominems, and stupid pictures. We don't want to feed the trolls; when you do you get troll crap, and it is worse than dog dew on a hot summer day.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Revi » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 07:16:47

Don't worry. The price of oil is your proof, Shortonoil. I used your prognostications to get my second place on the 2017 oil price challenge. That's the highest I've ever been. (and probably the highest I'll ever get...) It looks like next year will be in the 40's and maybe lower for the oil price, so we'll see who's laughing then!

the-2017-po-com-oil-price-challenge-t73028-180.html
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 07:53:38

shortonoil wrote:
I wish you would stop using the first-person-plural.


Keep wishing. Who's "I"? The mass of mindless trolls that populate this site. Why don't all you "I"s take a course in mathematics or physics so that you can respond to us in some intelligent manner rather than producing a continual stream of ad hominems, and stupid pictures. We don't want to feed the trolls; when you do you get troll crap, and it is worse than dog dew on a hot summer day.


You are routinely challenged with actual facts by Rockman, Rockdoc, Kublikan, and others with actual factual data which you routinely ignore. What is the point in actually engaging with you with real facts when you ignore them? I love how you sidestep anything which challenges your model but instead do personal attacks. Shows to me you are the troll and a pimp of your much discredited ETP model.

You and your sock-puppets are a running joke here and I'm enjoying watching you melt down over it.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 07:59:50

The “multiple currency crash” scenario is hard to think through, but makes logical sense. Currency A crashes, so country A defaults. That blows a huge hole in the balance sheet of country B, so currency B crashes – and so on.


By taking into consideration the cypto-currencies, that now make capital controls almost impossible to implement, it is guaranteed to happen. As much as they hate to talk about it Central Banks have now lost control of the the currency system. As these new currencies proliferate to ever greater size, and number the movement of funds from areas of financial distress to more stable regions will take place faster, and more frequently. Oil producing states are the most susceptible to such disruptions. As oil productions continues to lose its ability to act as an income producing activity, public panic in those states can strip a country of its remaining foreign reserves in seconds. Bitcoin at $10,000 would be a good indication that some country just got wiped out!
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 08:17:59

shortonoil wrote:dog dew on a hot summer day.


Dew? Dew doesn't seem so bad. Is that anything like Santa "Clause"?

Image

Funny how you sidestepped my point yet again. Who is the "we" again? Are you including your family, maybe? A low-paid secretary? Some part-time accountant or tax attorney who has no knowledge or interest in the subjectmatter? Maybe a life-sized bunny?

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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 08:26:04

Even though China has recently tried draconian methods to restrict their outflow of capital via the crypto-currencies they have so far only had minimal effect. Distressed petro-states can now disappear over night.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-1 ... ed-15-lows
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 09:03:13

With petroleum's ability to deliver energy to the end user at less than 20,000 BTU per gallon of raw crude, its ability to provide sufficient funds for oil producing states has deteriorated to almost nothing. Consequentially, those states which are dependent on petroleum revenue for their existence will perish. Previously, because each nation's flow of funds was controlled by its banking system, decline could be mitigated to the consumption rate of its fixed assets. Capital outflows from the currency system could be limited. With the rise of the crypto currencies that is no longer the situation. It is ironic that the growth of technology that petroleum has depended upon to push its expiration date passed its otherwise workable point in time should also be the mechanism that results in its demise. Once a nation no longer has access to foreign reserves its economy ceases to function. For them, being a member of the global economy has ended.
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 09:54:56

shortonoil wrote:With petroleum's ability to deliver energy to the end user at less than 20,000 BTU per gallon of raw crude, its ability to provide sufficient funds for oil producing states has deteriorated to almost nothing. .


LOL How many times must you be proven wrong on something so simple?
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Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 11:17:14

That's a good point about the potential role of crypto currencies in hyperinflating states. When Zimbabwe was hyperinflating its people resorted to the dollar. Perhaps the price of Bitcoin is not what you want to look at, but whether it becomes the currency of choice next time something like that happens?
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