Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 12:40:19

The Daily Averages vs. The Etp Models MAC

Image[/img]

This year the WTI and the MAC are basically one.

The Etp Model should get some recognition.

It's actually depressing to see the MAC act as the resistance to the WTI price.
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 679
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 13:02:24

Plantagenet wrote:
Yoshua wrote:When the WTI breaks above the Etp Models MAC it's followed by a crash.

Image


I notice that WTI went above the MAC line in 2011----but the price of oil didn't crash until four years later.

Given that four year delay, a logical inference is that WTI going above the MAC line in 2011 had nothing to do with the price crash in 2015. Something else that happened in 2015 probably caused the price crash---like the oil glut.

CHEERS!


The WTI touched above the MAC in 2011 & 2012 and fell substantially both times.

The last time the WTI broke the MAC was during QE infinitum. After the end of QE infinitum the WTI collapsed in 2014.

It looks like a war between the economy and the laws of physics.
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 679
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 13:08:39

Is that similar to how it the price of crude has never (according to ETP supports) crossed the MAC line?


The Maximum Affordability curve is based on the average annual price of WTI as reported by the EIA. It has never been exceeded since 1960 or before.

Code: Select all
Year     MA$        WTI
2010    118.44     87.48
2011    112.14     71.21
2012    104.58     94.05
2013     96.18      97.98
2014     87.36      93.25
2015     77.28      48.67
2016     65.94      43.33
2017     54.18
2018     41.16
2019     26.88


What other curves that may be generated by other people from ours is completely beyond our control. The original curve was produced from a skewed logistic function that has no explicit mathematical function to define it. The Quantile Function from which it is derived is Q(p) = λln(p) - (1-λ) ln(1-p) where the skew parameter is 0 ≤ λ ≤1. Each point must be computed numerically.

Its original presentation can be found here:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

The curve does not address what happens between the start of the year, and its end; just the average for the year. Short term variations are always compensated for by moves of equal magnitude in the opposite direction. If they occur their impact on the overall economy is canceled.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4856
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 13:20:12

Please keep your ETP models restricted to one of your many threads about the matter. Thanks. No reason to pollute the entire board with your nonsense.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9141
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 14:38:59

Please keep your ETP models restricted to one of your many threads about the matter. Thanks. No reason to pollute the entire board with your nonsense.


It appears that you still do not understand that it is energy that powers the economy. You should be quit comfortable in the economy that is to come; that is, admiring the south end of a north bound mule, and using the ache in your bunion to predict the weather. Being in world of ignorance is not too bad if you are one of the ignorant. You'll be able to go with the flow.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4856
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby pessimisticoptimist » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 16:08:38

shortonoil wrote:
Is that similar to how it the price of crude has never (according to ETP supports) crossed the MAC line?


The Maximum Affordability curve is based on the average annual price of WTI as reported by the EIA. It has never been exceeded since 1960 or before.

Code: Select all
Year     MA$        WTI
2010    118.44     87.48
2011    112.14     71.21
2012    104.58     94.05
2013     96.18      97.98
2014     87.36      93.25
2015     77.28      48.67
2016     65.94      43.33
2017     54.18
2018     41.16
2019     26.88


Short doesn't the data show it going above for 2013 and 2014?
pessimisticoptimist
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri 03 Mar 2017, 22:19:48

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 19:26:40

Short doesn't the data show it going above for 2013 and 2014?


That is a rounding error. The energy half way point did not occur exactly on January 1, 2012. It occurred in late 2011, but that got rounded up to 2012 when I did the calculation this afternoon. I'll recalculate it, and post the new numbers tomorrow. Thanks for noticing, I missed that. As the curve is a skewed logistic curve each point has to be calculated seperately from the Quantile Function. That makes it easy to mess up.

"To error is human, to really screw things requires a computer."
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4856
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 04:33:04

When the 10 year old truants finally get around to fixing your broken abracadabra abacas (presumably your momma will give you a bathroom break from your fry machine duties at the crab shack although she typically forces you to dribble down your leg multiple times per day), they will laugh and laugh that the ETP Bozo is the only bloviating blathering blowhard on the planet that maintains that for every 100 units of petroleum energy that enters a refinery, 40 units of energy are consumed in the processing.
marmico
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 521
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 04:43:47

Jim Rickards letter to Trump about the death of the Petrodollar.

IMF will introduce a global currency Jan 1st 2018.

https://dailyreckoning.com/president-tr ... awakening/
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 679
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 05:31:27

Great, the new currencies will be Tasmanian sea shells and Haida wampum beads. What's the exchange rate? Do you get 100 Haida quahogs for a $1 or 1 Tasmanian quahog for $100. Only the ETP Bozo's abracadabra abacus knows for sure. :-D
marmico
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 521
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 06:52:39

marmico wrote:Great, the new currencies will be Tasmanian sea shells and Haida wampum beads. What's the exchange rate? Do you get 100 Haida quahogs for a $1 or 1 Tasmanian quahog for $100. Only the ETP Bozo's abracadabra abacus knows for sure. :-D


The dollar is backed by petroleum. Petroleum wont be able to back any currency when petroleum dies as an energy source.

The world will be forced to find a new energy source to back a global reserve currency. Chinese coal? Russian, Iranian and Qatari nat gas?

US shale oil and gas are uneconomic so the rats are now abandoning a sinking ship?

I don't know what the global elite are thinking. But I'm sure they will do anything to stay alive.
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 679
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 07:01:11

I'll tell you what. On January 2, 2018, when there are no Tasmanian sea shells and Haida wampum beads as currency, get Rickards to put some hair plugs on his scalp.

Image

You should start the double collection plate now. Both ETP Bozo for $1250 and Rickards for Gold are going to crash and burn.
marmico
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 521
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 08:15:05

Cliffhanger1983
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon 18 Nov 2013, 15:25:53

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 08:36:53

A gold tupee or a tinfoil? Someone is selling dollars. The dollar index is falling.
Yoshua
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 679
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 09:49:28

Isn't energy the wrong unit to base expectations upon? It's easy to measure, but doesn't actually easily translate into work. It is necessary, but the amount of energy available is not always going to decide if something gets done or not. I think a better measure is some quotient involving both energy available and productivity. I see this all the time on this site; where a person says that only so much work can be done because there is only so much energy, but forgetting that you can ride a bike so much faster and farther than you can walk. I suppose, if you say that you have to include building the road, you can bring the example of the bike down to that of trudging in the muck, but once you've built it why not use it again?

In today's world it might be better to make a distinction between groups that things are done for. In the third world, for example, there is so much corruption that efficiency often only benefits a small group. They generally have no incentive to build anything, be it a construction project or an economic initiative, for the masses. Those in charge always evaluate things according to how much a proposal will benefit them. The intense corruption virtually guarantees that productivity will not be what it could, or should, be. In contrast with the West, it is like they have to build the roads anew every time they use them.

It isn't like the West has firmly and finally avoided the third world's problems, though. There is certainly the looming threat of protectionism to deal with. In many ways the roads of today are built between nations, and they are as much about relationships as they are both technically virtual and concrete.
User avatar
evilgenius
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2153
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 11:05:25

The economy is built a growth/debt paradigm. That's what every currency represents, not "oil". The attempt by some to inject oil into a largely financial debate is simply a matter of trying to keep the peak oil meme relevant.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 747
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 11:11:30

asg70 wrote:The economy is built a growth/debt paradigm. That's what every currency represents, not "oil". The attempt by some to inject oil into a largely financial debate is simply a matter of trying to keep the peak oil meme relevant.


So you discount that oil is a fundamental/foundational underlying resource for that growth/debt paradigm?
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1520
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 11:26:00

asg70 wrote:The economy is built a growth/debt paradigm. That's what every currency represents, not "oil". The attempt by some to inject oil into a largely financial debate is simply a matter of trying to keep the peak oil meme relevant.

Haha, too funny. What do you think allow for debt and growth? Magical fairy dust. We instituted the growth/debt paradigm because of the richness of the fossil fuel energy sources that allowed for growth. Now we just have more debt but no real growth just funny money growth. We are cannibalizing current assets and sacrificing future economic vitality in this pretend and extend mode. This provides ample proof that the era of growth is dead and we only have contraction to look forward to
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7581
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 11:41:23

"This provides ample proof that the era of growth is dead and we only have contraction to look forward to..."

Contraction is baked in no matter how you slice and dice the ingredients. It's just a matter of how we deal with it, or not.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1520
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Is fast crash likely? Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 13 Sep 2017, 11:42:40

Thanks pessimisticoptimist

We moved the energy half way point back a few months, and recalculated the Maximum Affordability Function.

Code: Select all
Year     MA $/b     WTI $/b
2010     126.42    87.48
2011     119.28    71.21
2012     111.72    94.05
2013     102.90    97.98
2014      93.66    93.26
2015      83.16    48.67
2016      71.40    43.33
2017      58.80
2018      45.36
2019      30.66
2020      15.12


2014, the year of the start of the price collapse, was when the curve met the actual price. It was the beginning of the end for the petroleum industry.

As I recently mentioned, there are a number of industry insiders who are now preparing to come forward to attest to the difficulty in which the industry is now finding itself. SrSrocco will be having an interview with an oil major CFO that has left his position because of conflicts between accounting and, other management. There appears to be irreconcilable differences between what management wants their books to say, and what they are actually saying. I believe that he will have the article up this, or next week, https://srsroccoreport.com/.
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4856
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Yahoo [Bot] and 24 guests