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International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 11:00:11

T - "...I keep saying it is too late to prevent climate change and we need to seriously focus on climate adaptation instead." And to put an even harsher edge to your observation: no one is "negotiating" sh*t with anyone else. Articles titled like this one are just a dishonest illusion put out for a variety of reasons. And in a perverse way welcomed by those content on continuing to burn evermore fossil fuels since it gives some sense of a meaningful adjustment. No different the Greenpeace claiming a major victory for the KXL border crossing section not being built. Not only did its "victory" not stop the increase of oil sands production but also resulted in the building of the redundant Dakota Access Pipe Line.

All illustrations that both the liberals and conservatives are equally happy to inflict on the gullable public. A public that will accept any fairy tale that allows BAU.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 13:56:51

Wow, T, you are on a roll!! :)

Do you have any links to support your claims about the China plants so I can use them in convincing others that the official numbers are likely rather...squishy?

I imagine the Chinese would claim that the new plants are so much more efficient than the old that they can actually reduce CO2 emissions per megawatt while building these out and retiring the dirtiest old plants.

I don't have either the stats or the knowledge of various kinds of plants, but just based on previous behavior, it does seem likely that the Chinese are cooking the books to some extent.

When China very clearly goes from burning about half of all the coal in the world to going back to just a 5 -10 % or less, maybe then I'll feel a bit more sanguine about their emissions. (Of course, that might mean the India has moved in to take their place as top coal polluter, which could happen easily.)

But none of us are likely to have any influence on these countries, so I prefer to focus on the monumental failure of the US to be any kind of consistent leader on these fronts. Right now, it's the Repubs in charge, so they get pretty much all of the blame for current practices, especially given their now near unanimous head-in-the-sand know-nothing stances on the issue.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 14:42:57

dohboi - "it's the Repubs in charge, so they get pretty much all of the blame for current practices". Essentially the vast majority of the current practices in place were there during President Obama's 8 years. Such as President Obama exporting more coal in one year then any other POTUS in history. And his efforts to have 3 new coal export terminals built on the west coast? And having that effort thwarted by local resistance had the expansion of coal export terminals on the Texas coast expedited. And the US producing more oil in one year then any other POTUS for the last 45 years according to the EIA.

And President Obama's policies allowing a 190% increase in US refinery exports during his terms along with a 20% increase in the US importation of the "dirtiest oil" on the planet. And the President's administration approving the Dakota Access Pipe Line that would carry 600,000 bopd passed Native American sacred lands as well as under their primary source of drinking water. And offering more offshore acreage in the GOM for lease then any other POTUS in history. And giving Shell Oil a permit to drill on federal land in the Arctic Ocean. And let's not forget approving BP's permit request and providing oversight to a well that would eventually create the largest oil spill in US history.

I could go on with the list of President Obama's "accomplishments" as I've done numerous times in the past. LOL. But I'll stop here. To be honest I feel President Trump will have a struggle to come close the the score President Obama has racked up on the fossil fuel industry's wish list.

Seriously.

Almost forgot one: President Obama did sign the NON-BINDING Paris Accord. Need to be fair about the list, eh? LOL.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 15:23:28

It seems like people believe what words come out of the mouths of politicians. I can't imagine why that is so, for anyone who has reached an adult age. Forty odd years ago I learned to watch what they do and not what they say.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 20:29:02

Well, Rockman, why are you criticizing anybody's environmental record when your livelihood benefits from lax regulation? You've got about as much credibility as Plant with his jet-setting lifestyle wringing his hands about AGW.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 21:03:59

dohboi wrote:I don't have either the stats or the knowledge of various kinds of plants, but just based on previous behavior, it does seem likely that the Chinese are cooking the books to some extent.

When China very clearly goes from burning about half of all the coal in the world to going back to just a 5 -10 % or less, maybe then I'll feel a bit more sanguine about their emissions. (Of course, that might mean the India has moved in to take their place as top coal polluter, which could happen easily.)


You said a mouthful there. The table in this link sas there are 111 coal fire power plants under construction world wide as of this month.
43 of those are in China.
18 of them are in India.
11 of them are in Southeast Asia.
11 of them are in Europe.
5 of them are in the US.

Sure China is also spending a lot on renewables, but almost all of that is Hydroelectric as they are building dams on each of the rivers that flows into the Three Gorges Dam Reservoir so they can almost double their hydropower by 2025.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/10/c ... ction.html
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 21:12:45

OK, ROCK, the people in charge of all branches of government have zero responsibility for the current state of affairs. Riiiiiight.

Let's hear it for personal responsibility, eh!

Sooooo, are repubs ever responsible for any negative thing that ever happens, or do you always whine that it's someone else's fault. Is that how you run your personal life and your business?

'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

Thanks for the stats, sub.

Not really surprising, though, that the folks using half the coal that is being mined are building the largest portion of new coal plants...doesn't really answer my honest question about whether all those new plants are actually so efficient that they net reduce emissions as old dirtier Chinese plants are retired. Any real help with that would be much appreciated. But I guess both on the Chinese, US, and Russian side, we are far into the post (relevant) fact world and deep into the world of pure spin, as you see from most of the comments here... :cry:
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 21:23:36

Well, Rockman, why are you criticizing anybody's environmental record when your livelihood benefits from lax regulation? You've got about as much credibility as Plant with his jet-setting lifestyle wringing his hands about AGW.


I don't think you know squat about regulations, nor the way they vary across states or across countries nor the fact that many companies take it upon themselves to limit GHG emissions beyond what regulations require.

Typical virtual signaler who doesn't know bugger all about what is actually going on.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 21:38:07

dohboi wrote:Wow, T, you are on a roll!! :)

Do you have any links to support your claims about the China plants so I can use them in convincing others that the official numbers are likely rather...squishy?

I imagine the Chinese would claim that the new plants are so much more efficient than the old that they can actually reduce CO2 emissions per megawatt while building these out and retiring the dirtiest old plants.

I don't have either the stats or the knowledge of various kinds of plants, but just based on previous behavior, it does seem likely that the Chinese are cooking the books to some extent.

When China very clearly goes from burning about half of all the coal in the world to going back to just a 5 -10 % or less, maybe then I'll feel a bit more sanguine about their emissions. (Of course, that might mean the India has moved in to take their place as top coal polluter, which could happen easily.)

But none of us are likely to have any influence on these countries, so I prefer to focus on the monumental failure of the US to be any kind of consistent leader on these fronts. Right now, it's the Repubs in charge, so they get pretty much all of the blame for current practices, especially given their now near unanimous head-in-the-sand know-nothing stances on the issue.


First to answer your "close old plants for new efficient ones" query, they have built so many new plants in the last 15 years that any decrepit plants they planned to scrap have already been scrapped. There total power generation from coal basically quadrupled from 2000 to 2015 meaning that they could have replaced every coal fired plant that existed in 2000 and built three more additional new plants right beside it.
Image

Second to follow China coal power in detail I suggest Sourcewatch

Especially if you follow this interactive link. When it opens select East Asia in the first drop down menu and China in the second, it will give you the whole list of active, under construction, permitted, planned, and proposed coal power stations in China. You can look at a lot of countries using it too, not just China. Interactive Tracker
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 31 Oct 2017, 22:38:22

asg70 wrote:Plant with his jet-setting lifestyle.....


Academic scientists hardly have jet setting lifestyles. Yes, we travel a lot but that is part of the job. You can’t study geophysics and climate change without actually traveling to the places where climate change is manifesting. When we get to the study site we don’t stay in 5 star hotels or resorts—we typically stay in remote sites like Ibon’s mountain compound in Panama to be near the study sites. Often we’re staying in ⛺️ tents.

When I add it up, I’ve spent years in tents doing science work

And we don’t even pay for it ourselves—-the work is typically funded by federal research grants or other research funds

Get it now?

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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 14:44:21

Thanks, T.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 15:00:54

Plantagenet wrote:Academic scientists hardly have jet setting lifestyles.


Bullshit. Your flights are not just for work. You were suggesting in the other thread that people bummed out about doom go on pleasure trips to places like you did to Greece.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 17:19:58

asg70 wrote:Bullshit.


Your potty mouth is overflowing. Please flush now.

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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 17:32:41

Now even the UN is admitting the Paris Accords pledge to limit global trmperature increases below 2 C is a sham. The UN now admits CO2 emissions are running about 30% HIGHER then they had hoped and are on track for a global T increase of ca 3 C

un-warns-of-unacceptable-greenhouse-gas-emissions-gap

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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 21:00:31

Plant,
Not criticizing you but pointing out that even that report, ignoring the ever moving base line, does not address the base issue.... over population.

I see zero way we can control our emissions without first controlling population. The basis for that is my belief that folks will strive to have a high energy, luxurious, life style. The number of calories consumed can almost be fixed, lets say we fix it at the average for EU countries. Then we cipher how much cc gases we can “afford” and divide one into the other to one up with a “Maximum allowable population.” Reduce cc gases/calorie and you get more people.

Until (like NEVER) we come up with some common sense formula ( mine or some other) that truly puts the turd on the table there is no sense in negotiating because you are negotiating lies vs fantasies.

This is really just a variation on the ideas by some Irish researcher, blocking the name, Dohbi likes to cite. He’s one of the guys that goes on about the Paris accords being a farce and how we have a small “budget” of gasses we can further emit before going into thermal runaway. Damn, wish I could recall the name.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 21:17:37

Just to add, these thoughts are in concert with Tanadas excellent post on the previous page.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 21:41:11

Newfie wrote:I see zero way we can control our emissions without first controlling population. The basis for that is my belief that folks will strive to have a high energy, luxurious, life style. The number of calories consumed can almost be fixed, lets say we fix it at the average for EU countries. Then we cipher how much cc gases we can “afford” and divide one into the other to one up with a “Maximum allowable population.” Reduce cc gases/calorie and you get more people.


The UN climate change treaty negotiations have never considered population controls. It’s just not on the table

Up until the Obama administration the focus was always on reducing CO2 emissions. This is possible without population reduction by switching from FF to emission free energy sources like solar wind geothermal hydro nuclear etc

When Obama became president he derailed the signing of s new treaty to reduce CO2 emissions in Copenhagen in 2009, and then the US pushed a new kind of treaty, ie the Paris Accords that set a limit on global temperature increases but allowed CO2 emissions to rise

But that is magical thinking—— it isn’t working

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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 21:46:53

Plantagenet wrote:. . . by switching from FF to emission free energy sources like solar wind geothermal hydro nuclear etc
. . .
But that is magical thinking—— it isn’t working

Cheers!

Yes it is indeed!

Truly magical thinking.

Cheers :) :P
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 21:48:27

KEVIN ANDERSON.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 01 Nov 2017, 21:50:40

And I’m saying any negotiations without population controls are magical thinking.

I know that not popular but if you listen closely it’s where we are at.
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