[Tanada]

Here is a presentation by David Wadsel intended to influence the Paris climate talks. I doubt any of the negotiators will watch it, but everyone should.

https://onsync.digitalsamba.com/play/wa ... ies-of-now

[dohboi]

In case anyone still thinks we can stay below 2 degrees at this point, I came across this statement in the linked wiki page:

"to stabilize at between 445 and 490ppm (resulting in an estimate global temperature 2 to 2.4oC above the pre-industrial average) emissions would need to peak before 2015, with 50 to 85% reductions on 2000 levels by 2050."

[dohboi]

Oops, here's the promised link: http://www.liquisearch.com/ipcc_fourth_ ... after_2030

And now, just to be clear about what will be happening in the upcoming Paris Talks:

"If countries go no further than their current global climate pledges, the earth will warm a total of 3.5°C by 2100."

3.5 is likely an underestimate (as T pointed out), since it probably does not fully incorporate all carbon feedbacks.

So the real number is probably in the 4 to 5 degrees C range by the end of the century.

That means that the Paris Talks will essentially be planning the extinction of the human race, along with much of the rest of complex life.

[Subjectivist]

Oops, here's the promised link: http://www.liquisearch.com/ipcc_fourth_ ... after_2030

And now, just to be clear about what will be happening in the upcoming Paris Talks:

"If countries go no further than their current global climate pledges, the earth will warm a total of 3.5°C by 2100."

3.5 is likely an underestimate (as T pointed out), since it probably does not fully incorporate all carbon feedbacks.

So the real number is probably in the 4 to 5 degrees C range by the end of the century.

That means that the Paris Talks will essentially be planning the extinction of the human race, along with much of the rest of complex life.

While 10C or even 5C would chase humans out of the lowland tropics that is a far cry from sterilizing the planet of all complex life forms. For one thing the amphibians and reptiles did very well in the tropics even in the hothouse phase of the planet, with us medium size mammals chased out they should do a lot better than they do right now. For us mammals there will still be the Arctic coast and all of Antarctica. That is the worst case scenario, odds are we will only get excluded from the actual Tropics, from 23 North to 23 South.

[vtsnowedin]

Can we look at this with peak oil in mind? 2100 is 85 years away and peak oil (all liquids and substitutes) is most likely to happen this decade. So if the distribution curve is anywhere near bell shaped we may be back down to the production levels of 1930. World population may also be back down to the population of 1930 ( about 2 billion) or less. So even if lingering negative effects of human caused climate change persist as predicted there will be a lot less people that need to crowd into those still habitable areas and the population will be producing much less green house gasses, not only because it is the wise thing to do but due to the fact that there is much less fossil fuel available to burn.

[dohboi]

Sub, read Six Degrees and consider rate of change...

vt, sorry,I get tired of arguing the tired baseless line "peak oil is going to save us from ourselves despite ourselves."

We're finding there's more oil than we thought, and a lot more natural gas, and a hell of a lot of coal, especially--more than enough to thoroughly cook the planet.

Everyone should watch this meditation on Fermi's Paradox by major scientists and writers: http://documentarystorm.com/the-cross-of-the-moment/

[Lore]

A civilization that's crippled and desperate to stay afloat will use anything it can to do so today and forgo thinking about the consequences of what may happen tomorrow.

Humans once firmly caught in the bear trap will expend every dirty source of energy readily available to them. That's why if we don't make changes right now while we're still capable of doing so we probably never will.

[AgentR11]

We're finding there's more oil than we thought, and a lot more natural gas, and a hell of a lot of coal, especially--more than enough to thoroughly cook the planet.

The coal alone is entirely sufficient to do the deed.

[onlooker]

Regarding the coal, Dr. James Hanson states the same, that coal use must cease as it would by itself make the planet virtually uninhabitable

[dohboi]

Lore, A and ol--good points, all.

[dohboi]

http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2 ... trike-out/

http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2 ... trike-out/

Can the Paris Climate Talks Prevent a Planetary Strike-out?

(Short answer: No.)

"If anything, I am more pessimistic now than I was in early September"

"There are now very few opportunities to engage in any further multilateral negotiations before the start of the Paris talks. "

"delegates in Paris are asked to do in two weeks something that we have not been able to accomplish over the past two decades – write and conclude a universal climate change agreement with broad participation. It is a Herculean task"

[onlooker]

Yes and one that will not be accomplished as we are irrevocably wed to fossil fuels. As they say till death do us part.

[dohboi]

@BenjaminJullien: .@COP21 confirmed despite #ParisAttacks, says @LaurentFabius - COP21 maintenue à Paris malgré les attaques

"COP21 continues in Paris dispite the attacks."

http://mobile.lemonde.fr/cop21/article/ ... 27432.html

[Lore]

Oh well, that milksop Tony Watts was hoping for a hasty postponement. I guess he will have to tough it out now.

[onlooker]

Just guessing but I see no indication of any major movement on tackling climate change. We will see what have seen thus far, much hot air optimism from MSM and promises and scheduling of another climate summit and no true commitments or actions. Sad.

[Lore]

I think we've all seen this movie before. Addressing climate change, as it should be, won't happen till costly events start adding up.

[dohboi]

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/1 ... olidarity/

France confirms UN climate summit will proceed, diplomats praise solidarity

[Tanada]

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/11/15/france-confirms-cop21-climate-summit-will-proceed-diplomats-praise-solidarity/

France confirms UN climate summit will proceed, diplomats praise solidarity

In fairness I don't think the bad guys give two hoots in Hades about the climate or the meaningless posturing done by varied governments at these sort of conferences.

[AgentR11]

They don't. They won quite a while back. They know they won. And they know it was the last game of the season.

[dohboi]

Top Climate Scientists Dr. James Hansen, Dr. Tom Wigley, Dr. Ken Caldeira and Dr. Kerry Emanuel to Issue Stark Challenge at Paris COP21 Climate Conference

Press Conference to take place on Thursday, December 3 at 14:00 in the Gallery of Solutions – Media Stage – Air and Space Museum, Paris, Le Bourget

http://hosted.verticalresponse.com/3724 ... e41125912/

“Dr. James Hansen, Dr. Tom Wigley, Dr. Ken Caldeira and Dr. Kerry Emanuel will present research showing the increasing urgency of fully decarbonizing the world economy..."