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International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Lore » Sat 31 Oct 2015, 18:50:58

Wonder why Putin would say such stuff? Could it be their economy is totally tied to the production and export of fossil fuels?

It must of slipped his mind somehow about all the raging fires in Russia.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 31 Oct 2015, 20:24:27

You didn't get the memo Onlooker? The one called 'Economic Growth'? Was the only consensus memo in the bundle. The guys you are pointing at have jobs under the consensus memorandum of growth, or should I say Growth. Without which, it is all over red rover. No argument, no thing, can stand in the way of Growth. Marsification of Earth- if it provides Growth- not a problem. Growth, Growth, Growth, get it in your head- Growth.

Better read up on the basics Onlooker. Dieoff is a good place to start.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 31 Oct 2015, 22:25:39

Lest we forget France is the host country for the next round of talks.
Putin isn't the only one bowing to the pressure of the Growth paradigm either,

As the United Nations gears up for its next international conference on climate change in Paris next month (COP 21), a scathing white paper released by a society of French mathematicians calls its fight against global warming “absurd” and “a costly and pointless crusade”.

“You would probably have to go quite a long way back in human…history to find [such a] mad obsession,” according to a translated summary of the document released in September by the Paris-based Société de Calcul Mathématique SA.

The mathematicians harshly criticized a “crusade [that] has invaded every area of activity and everyone’s thinking," noting that "the battle [against] CO2 has become a national priority.

"How have we reached this point in a country that claims to be rational?” they ask, adding that mathematicians “do not believe in crusades. They look at facts, figures, comments and arguments.”

“There is not a single fact, figure…[or] observation that leads us to conclude the world’s climate is in any way ‘disturbed,” the paper states. “It is variable, as it has always been. … Modern methods are far from being able to accurately measure the planet’s overall temperature even today, so measurements made 50 or 100 years ago are even less reliable.”

Noting that concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) have “always” varied, the French mathematicians also said that after processing the raw data on hurricanes themselves, they verified that “they are no more frequent now than they have been in the past.”

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/bar ... nst-global
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 31 Oct 2015, 22:55:01

Noting that concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) have “always” varied, the French mathematicians also said that after processing the raw data on hurricanes themselves, they verified that “they are no more frequent now than they have been in the past.


Wow. Just wow.

Maybe some context would make this sound a bit less crazy, but as presented, it's about as bad as what repugs and other denialists are spewing here.

CO2 has always varies...no shit. But its hasn't been above ~320 since about the time humans evolved, iirc.

So how is variation before that time the least bit relevant.

And then they cherry pick one of the few types of intense storms that models have concluded would not increase in frequency (hurricanes), and then they claim that the fact that that hurricanes have not increased in frequency disproves the models...That's totally insane. Sorry. Some of my best friends, literally, are mathematicians, even French ones (well, Canadian French, anyways). But these dudes are seriously muddled (at best)!
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 31 Oct 2015, 23:10:18

Tanada wrote:
... a society of French mathematicians ...

It's a Société (=company). Looks like some sort of consulting firm or think-tank, not a mathematical society..
http://www.scmsa.eu/accueil_e.htm
Rather lame website.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 00:03:06

Keith_McClary wrote:
Tanada wrote:
... a society of French mathematicians ...

It's a Société (=company). Looks like some sort of consulting firm or think-tank, not a mathematical society..
http://www.scmsa.eu/accueil_e.htm
Rather lame website.


I didn't invent them, I was just pointing out Putin isn't the only one running around downplaying climate change as we head into the talks in France.

In a way it is ironic, France and Russia were very friendly allies for quite a long time, and not rattling sabers against each other even when the Cold War was going hot and heavy. The French even went so far as to limit the range of their ballistic missiles to only hit Germany and the edge of Poland but not threaten the USSR/Russia directly.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dissident » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 10:23:01

Subjectivist wrote:I know we are coming up on the Paris climate negotiations. It seems to me that suddenly climate denier forces are pumping out plenty of news headlines about how Vladimir Putin or other world leaders don't believe in global warming.


http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/29/russi ... s-a-fraud/


Interesting how everyone in this thread is falling for this transparent smear piece. I listened to Putin's most recent speech at the UN in Russian and he was full bore acknowledging the threat of man made climate change including the need for action.

Ladies and gentlemen, the issues that affect the future of all people include the challenge of global climate change. It is in our interest to make the U.N. Climate Change Conference to be held in December in Paris a success.

As part of our national contribution, we plan to reduce by 2030 the greenhouse emissions to 70, 75 percent of the 1990 level.

I suggest, however, we should take a wider view on this issue. Yes, we might defuse the problem for a while, by setting quotas on harmful emissions or by taking other measures that are nothing but tactical. But we will not solve it that way. We need a completely different approach.

We have to focus on introducing fundamental and new technologies inspired by nature, which would not damage the environment, but would be in harmony with it. Also, that would allow us to restore the balance upset by biosphere and technosphere (ph) upset by human activities.

It is indeed a challenge of planetary scope, but I'm confident that humankind has intellectual potential to address it. We need to join our efforts. I refer, first of all, to the states that have a solid research basis and have made significant advances in fundamental science.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... ly-speech/

BTW, Illarionov the clown quoted in the hit piece compared the Kyoto Accord to Auschwitz. It's funny to see a parade of 5th column, Russia-hating nutjobs who have absconded to NATO being quoted about what Putin supposedly said. Quote Putin himself you f*cks.

So NATO stages the coup against a duly elected president of Ukraine and then it is Russia's fault? Wow, and you people lap this excrement up like candy. Then Russia and its "autocrat" has the "audacity" to back the secular government of Syria, which is routinely smeared with blood libel (e.g. Ghouta) by the NATO MSM, while the USA succors ISIS.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 10:37:56

Yes in keeping with that Dissident, Libya's former tyrant the now deceased Mohmar Khaddafi was painted in the Western media as a despicable tyrant. In fact, I read that he generously helped all his populace. Something quite rare in this world we live in. So total unjustified character assassination. His crime was defying the US.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 11:17:44

Lore wrote:Wonder why Putin would say such stuff? Could it be their economy is totally tied to the production and export of fossil fuels?
It must of slipped his mind somehow about all the raging fires in Russia.


1.) as diss noted, that's a misrepresentation of Putin's position.

2.) its economy is not tied to fossil fuels; its foreign exchange balance however, still is.

3.) Putin wants that reliance obliterated, and he's not being gentle about it. OTOH, he's fighting some massive inertia from a multilayered, corrupt bureaucracy, desperate to protect their own individual little slices of the federal budget, even if they aren't accomplishing anything useful at all.

My read is that Putin wants to use their domestic production of fossil fuels to rebuild domestic industrial manufacturing and break their addiction to Western luxury item imports. That's actually a hard trick to pull off; every barrel of oil exported creates upward pressure on the ruble, thus making imported items cheaper. Ideologically, I think Putin's a believer in a market value, floated currency; whereas in practical terms he has substantial motivation to further devalue the ruble. Banker babe over there let slip the word "80" a while back, and certain parties were displeased; but looking at things now, I'd not be surprised at all if a smooth ride to 80 RUB/USD is exactly what Putin would like to see happen.

Make no mistake, if you are someone using ruble income to pay dollar and pound mortgages while living in the West; you are Putin's "Public Enemy Number 1", and he is determined to destroy your way of life.

On the negative side, I think Russia does have some massive potential to sell coal fired, CO2 heavy, electricity to China and NK; that's going to be a hard market to pass on, but failing to pass on it will blow up Russia's "commitment" to reducing CO2 emission. They could generate a bunch of Nuke powered electricity as well, but I'm not sure if that would be as profitable. Will be interesting to watch though.

In short, Putin definitely is concerned about climate change, enough that there is some desire to act, but that action will take place in the context of the needs of Russia's domestic industry and security interests. Yall should be happy that he's interested at all; in the current century, Climate Change definitely works to the overall advantage of Russia.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 12:30:37

Some guy said that he believes that Pu believes that CC is fraud, no reference or citation provided. Now we are supposed to try and figure why Pu would have said so.

Pu doesn't care about CC. Boring stuff, he is busy with more exciting things at the moment.

https://youtu.be/xgFCvetBd00

Looks like he finally found a role for himself that he really enjoys.

https://youtu.be/OSHaVH9HhfI
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dissident » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 12:45:40

radon1 wrote:Some guy said that he believes that Pu believes that CC is fraud, no reference or citation provided. Now we are supposed to try and figure why Pu would have said so.

Pu doesn't care about CC. Boring stuff, he is busy with more exciting things at the moment.

https://youtu.be/xgFCvetBd00


What's wrong with large scale command and control training exercises? What's the point of having all of this hardware if you can't command it properly. I know you liberasts would love to see it all rot away and for Russia to be broken up into little impotent statelets follow the Zbigniew Brzezinsky plan.

Looks like he finally found a role for himself that he really enjoys.

https://youtu.be/OSHaVH9HhfI


Quality non sequitur post there, radon1.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 13:47:15

Tanada wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:
Tanada wrote:
... a society of French mathematicians ...

It's a Société (=company). Looks like some sort of consulting firm or think-tank, not a mathematical society..
http://www.scmsa.eu/accueil_e.htm
Rather lame website.


I didn't invent them, I was just pointing out Putin isn't the only one running around downplaying climate change as we head into the talks in France.

It looks like a one-man shop, actually:
Who are we?

SCM was born in 1987, as a non profit organisation
("Association Loi 1901", under the French law).
It was created by a University professor,
Dr. Bernard Beauzamy.

It became a commercial company in 1995.
"Société Anonyme" means "Corp."
Capital 56 200 Euros.
RCS Paris B 399 991 041.
Code APE 7129 Z.

Here are extracts from the opening statements of the first three chapters of the SCM White Paper:
...
Chapter 3: The crusade is pointless
Human beings cannot, in any event, change the climate. If we in France were to stop all industrial activity (let's not talk about our intellectual activity, which ceased long ago), if we were to eradicate all trace of animal life, the composition of the atmosphere would not alter in any measurable, perceptible way. To explain this, let us make a comparison with the rotation of the planet: it is slowing down. To address that, we might be tempted to ask the entire population of China to run in an easterly direction. But, no matter how big China and its population are, this would have no measurable impact on the Earth‘s rotation.

This, and the Putin thing, and the Evans thing and the Goklany thing were not even picked up by the denialist wing of the MSM, they were only in some fringe media and blogs.

Are the denialists getting desperate?
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 14:45:15

radon1 wrote:Pu doesn't care about CC. Boring stuff, he is busy with more exciting things at the moment.


Ensuring that Russia's nuclear forces are sufficient to overwhelm NATO missile defense shields is extremely important. Should Russia fail to keep up, there is absolutely nothing in the way of NATO issuing a stand down or die ultimatum to Russia at any time, for any reason. We can demonize anyone sufficiently to cause the public to support nuking them into oblivion, as long as the public does not perceive a significant risk of suffering retaliation on a similar scale; so don't think we wouldn't do it. The US/NATO has wanted to destroy or shatter Russia for a very long time; just never had the opportunity. Got close in the 90's but couldn't seal the deal.

Basically, to overwhelm an intercepter missile based defense system, launch and simultaneous delivery of a large number of warheads is critical, thus the exercise, especially snap exercises with multiple forces, become critical to the survival of Russia as an independent state.

Yall have two choices at this point, stay ahead of the missile defense game, or surrender and accept German/EU domination. I will say, German chocolate is pretty good compensation for becoming a slave to the empire. :-D And good coffee too, can't leave that out. Our imperial masters are pretty good at delivering decent coffee beans to us slaves. But you must vote for and accept the government we allow you to have; though we'll allow you to have a couple names that sound different to pick from; even if they will both serve US interests above your interests.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 16:44:34

AgentR11 wrote: We can demonize anyone sufficiently


True, Pu is the current "celebrity" being demonized. So, if Pu is against CC prevention then CC prevention has to be a good cause... Lots of good causes around to be helped by defiant Pu.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 04 Nov 2015, 00:07:46

The chief US negotiator for the upcoming Paris UN climate conference was interviewed on PBS News Hour this evening. She made some rather startling statements

(1) The proposed Paris UN CO2 treaty will NOT be binding. Over 150 nations have offered up their own plans for their own CO2 emissions, but none of the proposals will actually be legally binding. If they fail to keep their promises there will be no penalties.

(2) The stated goal of the Paris conference is to design a treaty that will limit global warming to 2° C by 2100, but in the best case scenario when you add up all the promises we will actually get about 3-4° C of global warming----and thats assuming everybody actually keeps their promises. In actuality global Ts will likely go up 5-6° C by 2100.

3. The US negotiator admitted this isn't very good, and said hopefully some future president and some future UN conference will do better.

Image
In other words the upcoming Paris UN CO2 treaty ---assuming a treaty gets signed---- won't actually reduce CO2 emissions and won't actually reduce global Temps.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Nov 2015, 04:21:23

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/1 ... ate-talks/

"If countries go no further than their current global climate pledges, the earth will warm a total of 3.5°C by 2100."
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 04 Nov 2015, 09:30:58

dohboi wrote:http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/03/3718146/misleading-un-report-confuses-media-paris-climate-talks/

"If countries go no further than their current global climate pledges, the earth will warm a total of 3.5°C by 2100."


Keep in mind those estimates are based on a gradual rise between now and then with not step change as the climate flips from one steady plateau to the next higher, or the one above that. We are already losing Arctic Sea Ice at a massive rate in geological terms and threatening the shelves that hold back the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Nov 2015, 10:04:41

"step change"

Good point. I'm wondering if this El Nino will act as a boost up to that next step.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 04 Nov 2015, 10:18:43

dohboi wrote:"step change"

Good point. I'm wondering if this El Nino will act as a boost up to that next step.


I know most people did not take a lot of math in school and avoid it whenever possible. The thing is when a complex system makes a step change in math you simply label it a discontinuity, that is an instant switch from one set of values to a different set of values. A discontinuity in climate is what took place during the Younger Dryas Event when the vast icy fresh water lake in North America burst free and flooded into the North Atlantic. The climate in the Northern Hemisphere dropped like a rock overnight and then took the better part of two thousand years to return to its former condition.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Nov 2015, 10:31:56

The other word that's relevant in some cases here is "hysteresis"--the temperature at which the Antarctic melts is likely to be quite a bit higher than the much colder temp it will take to re-freeze it.

Neither this nor the term "discontinuity" is likely to engender the kind of fear and loathing in the general population that they ought to, though. :cry:
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