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International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 01 Jun 2015, 07:36:02

Plant - A life time ago I was competition shooter...50' small bore. The bulls-eye TARGET was actually the size of a pin head. Eventually I could consistently hit that TARGET smack in the center on a 0.24” nine-ring…in the prone position. That’s how I earned my 9th level expert bar. But off hand? I really sucked. No matter how much I dedicated myself and practiced I never could reach my TARGET goal. Never did better than 5th place in competition. Had a variety of excuses: no enough money to practice enough, minor spinal damage, low end rifle, etc. But in the end the reasons didn't matter: I was never going to going to hit 10 dots in a row offhand.

Shooting for a TARGET is a GOAL…not a RESULT. And sometimes no matter how earnest your efforts might be to achieve that GOAL be sometimes the RESULT misses the TARGET.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 03 Jun 2015, 18:04:04

Massive Renewables Action Can Meet 2°C Goal

Experts meeting in Bonn, Germany, said on Wednesday that the internationally agreed goal of a maximum 2 degrees Celsius global average temperature rise is still within reach, but only if renewable energy supply is swiftly and massively increased.

At a Technical Expert Meeting during the Bonn UN Climate Change Conference, governments and key stakeholders on 3 June discussed renewable energy supply as one of the most promising ways to increase immediate ambition to tackle climate change before 2020, the year that the new Paris 2015 climate agreement is to enter into force.

Speaking at the opening of the meeting, Thomas Spence of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) said that according to the analysis of his institute, a climate neutral world in the second half of the century is possible, but that the challenge of avoiding a 2 degrees Celsius future would soon become insurmountable without adequate climate action:


Image

Speaking on behalf of the Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Angela Churie Kallhauge said a doubling of the world’s renewable energy supply by 2030 could lead to a reduction of 8.6 Gigatonnes of heat-trapping carbon dioxide.

Together with savings of 7.3 Gigatonnes of CO2 through energy efficiency, this would allow the world to stay below 450 parts per million global average CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, in turn enabling the international community to achieve its of goal of a maximum two degrees rise.


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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Lore » Wed 03 Jun 2015, 18:32:31

Technically doable, but what are the chances humans will take "massive action"? The longer we wait the more massive and harder it becomes.

I believe we've reached the point of the ridiculous in trying to suggest that the goal of 2 degrees can still be met.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 04 Jun 2015, 16:39:24

UN climate conference warned that 2 degrees global warming is not 'safe'

HAMFUL IMPACTS OF global warming such as heat waves and sea level rise are mounting and show a need for a "radical transition" to a greener economy, said a study presented at United Nations climate talks on Tuesday.

Damage is growing even though average temperatures have risen only 0.85 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, less than half the 2°C set as a maximum acceptable rise by almost 200 nations, it said.

"Negative impacts are not only something in the future — they are something now," said Zou Ji, a co-leader of the UN review of consultations about science policy for governments working on a UN climate deal in Paris in December.

The report, based on talks between experts and governments, was presented the sidelines of June 1 to 11 talks on the Paris accord, taking place in Bonn, Germany. All present at the unveiling of the report said government promises so far for curbs on greenhouse gas emissions were too weak to stay below the 2°C goal.

"Limiting global warming to below 2°C necessitates a radical transition ... not merely a fine tuning of current trends," according to the report.

Such a transition would mean deep cuts in greenhouse gases, shifting from fossil fuels such as coal and oil to renewable energies such as wind, hydro and solar power, it said.


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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 04 Jun 2015, 17:13:45

ROCKMAN wrote:Plant - A life time ago I was competition shooter...50' small bore. The bulls-eye TARGET was actually the size of a pin head. Eventually I could consistently hit that TARGET smack in the center on a 0.24” nine-ring…in the prone position. That’s how I earned my 9th level expert bar. But off hand? I really sucked. No matter how much I dedicated myself and practiced I never could reach my TARGET goal. Never did better than 5th place in competition. Had a variety of excuses: no enough money to practice enough, minor spinal damage, low end rifle, etc. But in the end the reasons didn't matter: I was never going to going to hit 10 dots in a row offhand.


What a coincidence---I'm off to a competitive event on Saturday. Wish me luck

ROCKMAN wrote:Shooting for a TARGET is a GOAL…not a RESULT. And sometimes no matter how earnest your efforts might be to achieve that GOAL be sometimes the RESULT misses the TARGET.


Of course. But the switcheroo carried out by Obama at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen in 2010 was to abandon the Kyoto Treaty process drive for a binding treaty to reduce CO2 emissions and change instead to a voluntary "target" of keeping temperature rise below 2° C

Most scientists now recognize this was a mistake. While its easy to quantify CO2 reductions, and to measure them and test compliance, its almost impossible to quantify what mixture of policies, voluntary agreements, reductions, etc. will keep the world under 2° C.

For all intents and purposes this switch gutted the UN climate treaty process. As the figure I posted above showed, there has been zero zippo nada nil reduction in CO2 emissions since 2010 and CO2 continues to build up in the atmosphere at a dangerous rate.

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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 05 Jun 2015, 03:51:46

MEGATON BOMBSHELL ALARM

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... ptics.html

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early ... ce.aaa5632
Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa5632
REPORT
CLIMATE CHANGE
Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus
Thomas R. Karl1,*, Anthony Arguez1, Boyin Huang1, Jay H. Lawrimore1, James R. McMahon2, Matthew J. Menne1, Thomas C. Peterson1, Russell S. Vose1, Huai-Min Zhang1
************************************************************

We have ever warned YOU dont believe the Creationist Idiots!

Now i tell our youth : Attack the fossil CO2 Lobby with full force and have no mercy !

Its WAR - TIME

DECLARE WAR against the actual fossil fuel system! The planet heats up untill all big mammals will die off.

ALARM ALARM

M_B_S

I am a German writing in english now you read in german:

„Wir sind gerade dabei, von einem unverhofften Erbe zu leben, das wir in Form fossiler Brennmaterialien unter der Erde gefunden haben. Dieses Material wird sich aufbrauchen.
Dauerndes Wirtschaften ist allein über die laufende Energiezufuhr der Sonne möglich.“[/i]
Wilhelm Ostwald (1853 - 1932)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Ostwald
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 05 Jun 2015, 07:04:43

Lore wrote:Technically doable, but what are the chances humans will take "massive action"? The longer we wait the more massive and harder it becomes.

I believe we've reached the point of the ridiculous in trying to suggest that the goal of 2 degrees can still be met.


I was just scanning back a bit and came across the phrase "our last best chance." You know how many times I've heard that over the years?

In fact it was Bill McKibben using that phrase that initially spurred me to action behind 350.org in 2008.

That phrase can be used only once, then you need to reevaluate your personal actions, to save your own sorry self.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 05 Jun 2015, 07:08:05

M.B.S.

the irony of your statements is your are advocating war against humanity in order to save humanity.

Your are not nutz (well maybe a little), we live in insane times.

:roll:
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 05 Jun 2015, 17:40:03

Bonn Meeting Revs Up World Climate Change Efforts

A ten-day meeting to hone the draft text of the Paris 2015 universal climate agreement has begun in Bonn, Germany. Presidents of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Lima COP20 (Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, the deft and diplomatic Environment Minister of Peru) and the upcoming Paris COP21 meetings (Laurent Fabius, who is also Foreign Minister of France) opened the UNFCCC talks on June 1.

The UN Bonn climate meeting comes after the major business and climate summit just held in Paris, and it overlaps with the meeting of the G-7 in Germany. The synergy will benefit the world climate effort. The Paris summit allowed 25 worldwide business networks—representing over 6.5 million companies from more than 130 countries—to compare notes on climate action. Formerly disparate factions coalesced in Paris to support a strong climate change agreement in December and to make new commitments that will help the world transition to a low-emission, climate-resilient economy as soon as possible. Far long-term goals, though yet unspoken by many in the business world, may include deep decarbonization and eventually carbon-free power.

The G-7 countries will meet for their annual summit Sunday and Monday, June 7-8, at Schloss Elmau in Upper Bavaria. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will host the meeting, has said that she would like to use the G-7 summit to push ahead with two UN projects: first, the worldwide climate agreement, and second, an agenda for sustainable development.

Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

The UNFCCC runs this Bonn climate session mainly to host the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. The ADP takes its name from the UN climate conference in Durban, South Africa, in December 2011, which ended with 195 countries pledging to negotiate a new international treaty by 2015. ADP’s members hold direct responsibility for attaining a workable instrument in Paris for the years following 2020.


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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 08 Jun 2015, 14:30:44

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j ... of-century


The G7 leading industrial nations have agreed on tough measures to cut greenhouse gases by phasing out the use of fossil fuels by the end of the century, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has announced, in a move hailed as historic by some environmental campaigners.......
******************************************************
:cry:

2100 is to late:

Calculate 40/a gigatons CO2 * 85 years = 3400 gigatons more CO2 in our atmosphere without feedbacks......

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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 13 Jun 2015, 19:13:06

Isn't it about it about time that reps from the FF industry were kicked out of UNFCCC negotiations?

Turning tables: Growing support against corporate capture of climate policy-making

In the final days of the Bonn Climate Change Conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Corporate Accountability International delivered a resounding call to the governments who have ratified the UNFCCC: protect the treaty and climate policy making from the undue influence of the globe’s biggest polluters. The call endorsed by over 224,000 sends a strong message to kick big polluters out of climate policy.
The call comes as record droughts and rainfall as well as relentless heatwaves claim lives around the globe and some of the world’s biggest polluters attempt to co-opt the treaty process and influence negotiating outcomes. The meeting in Bonn, concluding June 11, is one of the last formal meetings of the governments that have ratified the UNFCCC before their next full Conference in Paris (formally called Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC or COP-21) —largely regarded as a make-or-break moment for the agreement.

“Why would you let the professional arsonist join the volunteer fire department?” said Bill McKibben, author and co-founder of 350.org, “These are the guys who want to keep the problem going, not solve it.”

From aggressive lobbying of national governments to bankrolling of international meetings, the fossil fuel industry interferes at all levels. Industry co-optation of treaty meetings has been a growing problem and a primary obstacle to progress. At the 19th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Warsaw, corporations with a direct conflict of interest in the treaty’s success not only sponsored the talks, they were given preferential access to delegates.

In May, it was revealed that COP 21 in Paris may be yet another “Corporate COP” with the announcement of EDF and Suez Environnement as lead sponsors. Suez Environnement, infamous for its dealings in water privatization, is partially owned by ENGIE, formerly GDF Suez, which profits from fracking operations around the world, putting it at direct odds with the advancement of the treaty. ENGIE and EDF’s coal operations contribute to nearly 50% of France’s emissions.

The cozy relationship between polluters and the UNFCCC has become increasingly institutionalized. The Lima-Paris Action Agenda (LPAA), a joint project of the incoming and outgoing COP presidents, the Office of the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the UNFCCC Secretariat, encourages direct engagement with non-state actors—primarily identified as sub-national governments and corporations—as stakeholders in the policymaking process.

“The fossil fuel industry is not a partner in the solution—it is the driver of the crisis. Giving big polluters a seat at the table glosses over the glaring conflict of interest fossil fuel corporations have in a real solution to climate change,” said John Stewart, deputy campaign director at Corporate Accountability International. “Inviting gas, oil and coal corporations to shape climate policy is akin to looking to Big Tobacco to shape public health policy.”


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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 13 Jun 2015, 20:36:15

[quote="Graeme"]Isn't it about it about time that reps from the FF industry were kicked out of UNFCCC negotiations?

Turning tables: Growing support against corporate capture of climate policy-making

haha, it is like putting the wolf in charge of the chicken coop. How is that going to work out :P
thanks Graeme for updating us about climate negotiations if nothing more then to be amused about references to curbing carbon emission by the end of this century. :shock: at least they did not say by the end of the millennium. :lol:
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 13 Jun 2015, 22:25:13

Let's see if this works out:

All is not that dark! There is a legal precedent of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) where governments came together to kick Big Tobacco out of health policy-making! Ten years ago, Corporate Accountability International and its global network of civil society organizations secured a powerful international legal precedent when it led the charge to successfully kick the tobacco industry out of treaty talks at the World Health Organization negotiations of the FCTC. The success of the FCTC has enabled meaningful public health regulation that is unencumbered by industry profit motives and protects 90 percent of the world’s population from one of the most deadly industries on the planet.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 15 Jun 2015, 18:14:19

IEA Sets Out Pillars for Success at Paris
Energy Emissions Peak Possible by 2020


A peak in global energy-related emissions could be achieved as early as 2020 and at no net economic cost, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday in its new World Energy Outlook Special Report on Energy and Climate Change.

The IEA said that it has long emphasised that energy production and use which is not compatible with international environmental requirements is not sustainable: it fails the test of energy security. For that reason, it said, it contributed this report towards the COP21 conference in Paris, where governments will reach a new and universal climate change agreement.

It noted that world greenhouse gas emissions from energy production and use are double the level of all other sources combined, meaning that action to combat climate change must come first and foremost from the energy sector. The IEA proposes that the following four key pillars are needed to make Paris a success, from an energy perspective:

1. Peak in emissions – set the conditions to achieve an early peak in global energy-related emissions.
2. Five-year revision – review national climate targets regularly, to test the scope to raise ambition.
3. Lock in the vision – translate the world's climate goal into a collective long-term emissions goal.
4. Track the transition – establish a process for tracking achievements in the energy sector.

Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), welcomed the new report and said: “Peaking global emissions as swiftly as possible is a prerequisite for achieving the internationally-agreed goal of keeping a global temperature rise this century under 2 degrees C. This compelling assessment by the IEA confirms that with the right policies, pathways and support for developing countries a new, prosperous, low carbon economy can be created and catalyzed from the UN climate convention conference in Paris this December”.

IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said: "As IEA analysis has repeatedly shown that the cost and difficulty of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions increases every year, time is of the essence. It is clear that the energy sector must play a critical role if efforts to reduce emissions are to succeed. While we see growing consensus among countries that it is time to act, we must ensure that the steps taken are adequate and that the commitments made are kept."

Peak in Energy as Early as 2020

The IEA report said that a peak in global energy-related emissions could be achieved as early as 2020, if governments implement just five key policy measures, as shown in the IEA’s “Bridge Scenario”. This major climate milestone is possible utilising only proven technologies and policies, and without changing the economic and development prospects of any region. Intended as an effective bridge to further action, the five measures focus on:

Increasing energy efficiency in the industry, buildings and transport sectors
Reducing the use of the least efficient coal-fired power plants and banning their construction
Increasing investment in renewable energy technologies in the power sector from $270 billion in 2014 to $400 billion in 2030
Gradual phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies to end-users by 2030
Reducing methane emissions in oil and gas production


unfccc

In-depth: Is the 1.5C global warming goal politically possible?

For the past five years, international climate change negotiations have been guided by the principle that the rise in global average temperatures should be limited to "below 2C above pre-industrial levels".

Is this goal adequate? Probably not, according to a report conducted by the UN and launched at the climate change negotiations in Bonn.

Containing the views of 70 scientists gathered together in a process called the " structured expert dialogue", the report warns that even current levels of global warming - around 0.85C - are already intolerable in some parts of the world. It says:

"Some experts warned that current levels of warming are already causing impacts beyond the current adaptive capacity of many people, and that there would be significant residual impacts even with 1.5C of warming (e.g. for sub-Saharan farmers), emphasising that reducing the limit to 1.5C would be nonetheless preferable."

This report provides the evidence base for discussions at UN level over whether the world is being ambitious enough on long-term action to tackle climate change.

Climate talks in Bonn

While the message of the report is clear, it does not close the current chasm between climate science and policy.

At UN climate negotiations in Bonn last week, the report and its findings were subject to intense scrutiny and discussion by diplomats from around the world.

It is these policymakers - not the scientists - who get the final say on whether the findings become the new basis for future political decisions, embedded in a new international climate deal set to be signed at the end of this year in Paris.

The views of diplomats around the world differ widely on how the findings of the report should be incorporated.

At the most hopeful end of the scale, countries want to include an official decision that "there is a need to strengthen the global goal on the basis of limiting warming to below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels".

A minority would rather ignore the report - the product of two years' work - altogether.

In any case, two weeks of discussions ended in an outcome that most had hoped to avoid: just two short sentences acknowledging that a report had been written, and that countries would continue to discuss it when they meet again in Paris.


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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 16 Jun 2015, 17:39:13

China to join EU in pledge to get Paris climate deal

China, the world's biggest polluter, will sign a joint pledge with the European Union this month to seek a U.N. agreement to tackle climate change as one of "the greatest threats facing humanity," according to a draft statement seen by Reuters.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will endorse the statement at a June 29 summit in Brussels with EU leaders, who are seeking to ratchet up the pressure for a deal at the Paris climate conference late this year, EU officials said.

"The EU and China recognise their critical roles in combating global climate change, one of the greatest threats facing humanity," the draft final summit communique said.

"The seriousness of the challenge calls upon the two sides to work constructively together for the common good in the context of sustainable economic and social development," the statement said.

While couched in diplomatic language, the fact that Beijing is willing to subscribe to such a document may help build momentum for the Paris conference.


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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 23 Jun 2015, 19:58:52

Climate Change Momentum Now Undeniable

After many false starts, we believe that we have now reached a tipping point (or, if you prefer, an "inflection point").

We expect that the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 21) will in December 2015 ratify a real climate change deal. The final deal that will be reached in Paris is not itself the harbinger of change, it is merely the final stamp of approval on a broad global consensus that has now emerged that change must happen. Indeed, we would go so far as to argue that, regardless of the outcome of COP 21, the combination of investor and public awareness and concern has made genuine progress on the ground virtually inevitable.


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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Tue 23 Jun 2015, 20:16:13

Graeme wrote:Climate Change Momentum Now Undeniable

After many false starts, we believe that we have now reached a tipping point (or, if you prefer, an "inflection point").

We expect that the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 21) will in December 2015 ratify a real climate change deal. The final deal that will be reached in Paris is not itself the harbinger of change, it is merely the final stamp of approval on a broad global consensus that has now emerged that change must happen. Indeed, we would go so far as to argue that, regardless of the outcome of COP 21, the combination of investor and public awareness and concern has made genuine progress on the ground virtually inevitable.


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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Tue 23 Jun 2015, 20:21:55

Any document with enough teeth to render the process of accumulation secondary in all investors objectives will, unwittingly begin the unravelling of capitalism and the onset of social relations that underwrite the use of resources for reasons other than personal gain.....or......COMMUNISM. This is possible in sufficiently advanced civilisations and as I said in another thread, we have strong roots for due process in America and elsewhere, right now;
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 23 Jun 2015, 21:03:15

Extremes on the right or left are not going to solve our problems. There must be a compromise somewhere in the middle.
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Re: International Climate Negotiations Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby americandream » Wed 24 Jun 2015, 01:14:01

Graeme wrote:Extremes on the right or left are not going to solve our problems. There must be a compromise somewhere in the middle.


Ideas that contemplate the social without the economies involved whilst trying to tackle underlying economic issues and their consequences are the extremes that should worry us as they are extremely uninformed. To characterise circular social economy as extreme without understanding its dynamics whilst declaring infinite accumulation as being capable of circularity is equally misinformed.

This has been a recurrent problem where incomplete understanding of issues has buried us even deeper in the morass we find ourselves marooned in.
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