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Improving Peak Oil Credibility

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 12:00:31

General Electric stock down 2.5% today hitting lows not seen since 2008 "Financial" Crisis. Its gone from $30 to $14 in just one year.

shares of industrial and infrastructure giant General Electric ...

Bankrupt from a worthless junk currency.

America's so broke it cannot even afford antibiotics.

The morons are running around worshipping The Solar Cell.

LOL....
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby spike » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 04:20:05

S lion I suggest you read the story about Chicken Little and the Acorns.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby marmico » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 06:01:43

Laherrere is at it again. It seems that he has teamed up with Charlie EROI Hall for some presentation. He is unbelievable. He punches out fantastic work in his late 80s.

https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/ ... 9march.pdf

The paper is a mea culpa. Good for him. US URR has increased from 220 Gbs in 2002 to 300 Gbs in 2018. But the US peak is 2018.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 11:41:45

spike wrote:S lion I suggest you read the story about Chicken Little and the Acorns.


Someone say...acorns?

Image
[space to store bad short-term prediction currently vacant]
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 17:16:00

marmico

Actually, I think Laherrerre missed the Appalachian Basin potential in a very big way.

Going to Enno Peters' site and punching up the counties between NEPA and SWPA, one finds very productive wells that are pretty old ... aka archaic design. Just very little development due to pricing, lack of takeaway, and not able to compete with Susquehanna, Greene, et al.

However, in what I consider one of the bigger bombshells in some time in the 'shale world', CNX just announced at their March presentation plans to develop over 1,700 Deep Utica wells in both Central PA and SWPA.
The clear implications that CNX feels the Utica is comparable to the Marcellus cannot be over emphasized in its importance.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 12:24:16

coffeeguyzz wrote:marmico

Actually, I think Laherrerre missed the Appalachian Basin potential in a very big way.

Going to Enno Peters' site and punching up the counties between NEPA and SWPA, one finds very productive wells that are pretty old ... aka archaic design. Just very little development due to pricing, lack of takeaway, and not able to compete with Susquehanna, Greene, et al.

However, in what I consider one of the bigger bombshells in some time in the 'shale world', CNX just announced at their March presentation plans to develop over 1,700 Deep Utica wells in both Central PA and SWPA.
The clear implications that CNX feels the Utica is comparable to the Marcellus cannot be over emphasized in its importance.


Blah blah blah, hydrocarbons (no diesel) everywhere.

TOTAL COLLAPSE UPDATE:

BP, F, GE, SIEMENS,,,etc all in meltdown mode today down 2-3%.

Going out of business. Penny stocks within 2 years.
Last edited by StarvingLion on Thu 22 Mar 2018, 12:43:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 12:31:59

The Oil is in the deep oceans.

Requires an industrial base to subsidize exploration and desulpherize...Scamerica gave away that "low value" stuff for the "innovation" scam which produced the Digital Gulag Company named Alphabet Soup.

America is a bankrupt joke run by worthless con artists IPO'ing 98% all SCAMS.

Scammed by "finanshual bidness people" who know nothing.

Scamerica still has Fakebook....hahahahhaha.
Last edited by StarvingLion on Thu 22 Mar 2018, 12:57:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 12:38:51

You know, coffeegrindsforgreymatter, you should really STFU already with your mindless hype. You're so transparent with your bs that you couuldn't cut it hyping gold penny stocks.

Why don't you just admit unless there is a magic seismic device that can find deep ocean oil traps without any failures everything else is a lost cause.

Oh wait, Scamerica cannot afford steel or anything else of a physical nature.

America still has those worthless broke xxxxers called The Gamers. That joke company Intel is still selling the i9-7980XE for $2000. It aint even worth $20 if it can't magically find deep ocean oil.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 14:46:52

coffeeguyzz wrote:However, in what I consider one of the bigger bombshells in some time in the 'shale world', CNX just announced at their March presentation plans to develop over 1,700 Deep Utica wells in both Central PA and SWPA.
The clear implications that CNX feels the Utica is comparable to the Marcellus cannot be over emphasized in its importance.


Not a bombshell. At the APPG national convention back in 2014 or so, Shell was already talking about the Marcellus being the secondary play inside the Appalachian Basin. Behind...you guessed it...the Utica.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 14:55:43

StarvingLion wrote:You know, coffeegrindsforgreymatter, you should really STFU already with your mindless hype.


Not mindless hype when the pros say the same thing, Mr "Currency is worthless except when all of us are buying stuff with it and proving me ignorant".

StarvingLion wrote: You're so transparent with your bs that you couuldn't cut it hyping gold penny stocks.


Speaking from experience SL, or just more bloviating because everyone now knows that you've been bloviating for so long it must come natural?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby marmico » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 17:27:41

The clear implications that CNX feels the Utica is comparable to the Marcellus cannot be over emphasized in its importance.


Could be. Laherrere has Marcellus ultimate at 80-100 TCF, cumulative production to date of 30 TCF; Utica ultimate at 12 TCF, cumulative production to date of 5 TCF.

The EIA has now aggregated Marcellus and Utica into Appalachia so it'll be more difficult to separately track production in the Utica.

As drilling activity and production in the Appalachia region have increased in recent years, the overlapping formations make it difficult to attribute production to the proper formation. Combining the two regions into the Appalachia region better reflects the underlying geology of these formations.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32492
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 20:40:21

Marmico

I've gone through the brief, 2011 USGS assessment for the Marcellus and the 2012 for the Utica.
Going from memory, the mean TRR EUR was 1.1 Bcf for each 5,000 foot lateral, with 4 wells per square mile. Higher in most productive areas.

Now, those numbers are SO far off what is happening, that huge upward revisions are expected next assessment.
Better wells are throwing off 5 Bcf plus first year.

There is a very effective site with which one can not only track Utica versus Marcellus, but also the emerging Upper Devonian formations such as Genesee, Geneseo, Burket, Rhinestreet, and Middlesex.
Some of these UD wells are near-Marcellus in output.
Site is Marcellusgas.org.

Search function zeros in information at county level.

Laherrere will be shown to have vastly underestimated AB production.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 23:16:25

marmico wrote:
The clear implications that CNX feels the Utica is comparable to the Marcellus cannot be over emphasized in its importance.


Could be. Laherrere has Marcellus ultimate at 80-100 TCF, cumulative production to date of 30 TCF; Utica ultimate at 12 TCF, cumulative production to date of 5 TCF.


I'll believe Lahettete when he shows his geologic work. Until then we've got the USGS on the low side, Doug Patchen and the state geologists at the high end, and the EIA and Texas BEG in the middle. I'll stick with the middle for now, and not just because my estimates are right in there ball park as well.

marmico wrote:The EIA has now aggregated Marcellus and Utica into Appalachia so it'll be more difficult to separately track production in the Utica.


Not in OGSM they don't. Although I don't know if they publish those results individually, but I know they calculate them that way.

As drilling activity and production in the Appalachia region have increased in recent years, the overlapping formations make it difficult to attribute production to the proper formation. Combining the two regions into the Appalachia region better reflects the underlying geology of these formations.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32492


Only 1 geologist on the authorship. And I would dispute the difficulty. Time for a phone call to see what is up!
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 00:31:08

AdamB wrote:I'll believe Lahettete when he shows his geologic work. Until then we've got the USGS on the low side, Doug Patchen and the state geologists at the high end, and the EIA and Texas BEG in the middle. I'll stick with the middle for now, and not just because my estimates are right in there ball park as well.

Since when does Aubrey McClendon's failed intern and the current PO.com office assistant get to compare bragging rights with the pros? "Your" estimate? ha ha ha

Don't make me laugh
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby marmico » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 02:52:49

I'll believe Lahettete when he shows his geologic work.


Laherrere uses Hubbert Linearization for ultimate. It tends to understate same.

Apparently, the EIA still breaks out Marcellus and Utica separately via DrillingInfo state data.

Image

Eyeballing the chart, the Utica production slope is lower than the Marcellus. Laherrere and UT BEG are on the same page.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 11:11:34

Will Obama II sign the $1.3T omnibus bill...or will he Veto it?

The U.S government is now ramping up debt at a pace of $2T annually. The national debt must double every decade to keep the economy alive.

Shortonoil said that after the energy halfway point the economy would no longer be able to afford all the oil production, which would lead to inventory gluts and falling oil prices. The economy can of course take on debt to finance its oil consumption and make losses until the economy goes broke. Under normal market conditions the economy would not be able in the end to consume all oil production.

But we do not live under normal market conditions. The governments steps in when the economy goes broke and ramps up trillions in debt to keep the consumption up.

The question is just: How long can this continue?
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 11:20:28

Marmico

One needs to be aware of what is going on with the Utica in order to give perspective to Laherrere's work.
Originally, there were high hopes for oil production from the Ohio Utica as it underlies 1/3 the state.

Low recovery rates (poor pressure drive) have dashed those expectations, but the gas recovery has been great, this in 9,000 +/- foot depths.

Crossing the border into Pennsylvania, the shallower (17) Utica wells in Butler and Lawrence counties continue the produce generally poor results.

BUT ... farther south in Washington and Greene counties, with depths over 12,000 foot, initial Utica results have been VERY strong.
However, only 3 Deep Utica wells have continued producing at high rates, with the remaining (8?) dropping off dramatically.

THIS is why CNX's position is so momentous.
Their successful Gaut may now be joined by 2 Aikens Uticas with the Marchand hopefully following.Essentially, CNX seems to have cracked the code in opening up the vast, Deep Utica which underlies much of Pennsylvania.

The recent West Virginia University Utica study is a must read in order to grasp the potential magnitude of this resource.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 15:15:07

Obama II did of course sign the omnibus bill...after some Veto theater...well he is a show man after all.

America will live another 6 months and the oil producers will see demand for their production.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 15:44:41

The question is just: How long can this continue?

It will continue as long as the world allows it too. Or more specifically as long as they continue to accept "worthless" US greenbacks. My guess is a little bit of "chicken" is being played. The US threatening WWIII if the world in unison abandons the US. The other possiblity is that the credit markets will unravel within the US as all faith is lost in servicing of the Debt and in true growth happening again. For it is apparent that the US govt is bankrupt as is most of its populace. The final most predictable way all this will fail, is simply a steady and relentless hollowing out of the Economy, with inflation hitting with a vengenance and asset price discovery after raising of interest rates plummeting asset prices and wealth across the board in conjuction with a stock market collapse. This final scenario initiated probably by the highest economic players to allow them to recoup their losses via buying back assets for pennies on the dollar.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 23 Mar 2018, 18:52:11

onlooker wrote:
The question is just: How long can this continue?

It will continue as long as the world allows it too. Or more specifically as long as they continue to accept "worthless" US greenbacks. My guess is a little bit of "chicken" is being played. The US threatening WWIII if the world in unison abandons the US. The other possiblity is that the credit markets will unravel within the US as all faith is lost in servicing of the Debt and in true growth happening again. For it is apparent that the US govt is bankrupt as is most of its populace. The final most predictable way all this will fail, is simply a steady and relentless hollowing out of the Economy, with inflation hitting with a vengenance and asset price discovery after raising of interest rates plummeting asset prices and wealth across the board in conjuction with a stock market collapse. This final scenario initiated probably by the highest economic players to allow them to recoup their losses via buying back assets for pennies on the dollar.

Quite the gloom and doom scenario there. Worthless greenbacks are not worthless if they continue to be accepted. The average net worth (all assets minus all debts) of Americans is $68,828 (2010 census) Or to look at it another way the median is $44,900 per adult meaning 150 million Americans have more then that. So no the vast majority of the population is not bankrupt.
And why in your hollowing out economy and stock market crash prediction would the richest ever have to sell their assets and then buy them back? Those that are over leveraged might have to sell out but different people who were never poor will be the ones to buy those assets for pennies on the dollar.
In a depression cash is king but in our non gold standard system today nobody has any actual cash so those that hold real assets debt free will be the only ones with any purchasing power.
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