Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Improving Peak Oil Credibility

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 12:09:20

XOM in total free fall for the past 2 months.

BP in total free fall for the past 3 months.

US Dollar in total free fall past 3 months.

Look out below!

Bob Dudley of BP: "We're gonna save the world by throwing shit at the wall and see if something will stick"

Truth: BP cannot even save itself.

rockdoc, Adam, etc have bags on head, "Cannot see Peak Oil at all".
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 12:28:40

Where is the Polish Shale Industry?

Where is the UK Shale Industry?

EconoDunce Dieter Helm said oil is everywhere but we cannot dig it up because of the climate change hoax.

Truth: Shale Not self financing.

Ponzi.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 12:53:13

XOM in total free fall for the past 2 months.
 

XOM is not in a “freefall the past 3 months” It actually rose from $83 to $89 between Jan 1 and Feb 1 but then dropped by 13% in the first week of Feb along with the entire market correction. The share price has only dropped about $1 from Feb 8th to today’s price, which by the way is double what it was in 2002.

BP in total free fall for the past 3 months.


BP is the same situation, they went through the market correction in early February (9% correction) but since then have bounced around the same level of the first week Feb and are now down slightly (1%).

US Dollar in total free fall past 3 months.


The US dollar has weakened from its recent high in 2017 at $100 to a lowe in Feb 2018 of around $89 but strengthened and has remained on average around it’s current level since. At it’s current level it is much higher than the period from 2003 through mid 2014. It is measured against a basket of currencies and doesn’t necessarily mean the $US economy is weakening but rather can mean the basket economies are strengthening.

Truth: BP cannot even save itself.


From BP’s 2017 full year results
- Underlying profit up 139%
- Downstream underlying profit up 24%
- Upstream production up 12%
- Reserves replacement ratio 143% for BP Group
- Exploration delivered the most successful year for BP since 2004, with around 1 billion boe resources discovered.

rockdoc, Adam, etc have bags on head, "Cannot see Peak Oil at all".


More like "Starving Lion has rocks in his head and can’t see the keyboard for his drool".
There is a big difference between understanding what Peak Oil is and it’s potential impacts versus unreasoned doomer panic as demonstrated by you and other’s on this site.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5879
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 13:17:21

Yoshua wrote:Peak and plateau conventional oil.

Image


But but surely the "technology revolution" will keep the undulating plateau of conventional oil going forever, wont it.

All they are doing is trading slower decline rate for rapid depletion rate.

Their "technology revolution" has guaranteed a TOTAL COLLAPSE.

People like rockdoc wont know what hit them when the plateau turns into a sudden cliff. Its like the 2003 Columbia space shuttle that broke up over Texas. Astronauts didn't even have time to pull down their visors before they were shredded into bits. They didn't even know whats happening. And the clowns at NASA actually admitted that they would not tell the astronauts that catastrophic damage has occured to the leading wing. They said: "Why bother telling them so that they could just orbit the earth until their air ran out. Better to have a beautiful mission and then an unexpected TOTAL COLLAPSE".

Thats how the authorities have changed the Peak Oil narrative from manageable decline into TOTAL COLLAPSE. Why bother with lingering pointless suffering existence. Just blow bubbles until the bleeping shit hits the fan.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 13:46:48

Now Bankrupt Scamerica is IPOing Explicit Ponzi Schemes.

Evidence of a worthless junk currency.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 16:44:02

If I had a dollar for every post of his with "Ponzi scheme" in it I could pay the federal deficity...

Image
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1787
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 11:12:12

Not that it changes the inevitability of global PO but there's always more oil to develop. From:
https://www.rigzone.com/news/offshore_u ... 2-article/

"In its latest results update on Thursday, Premier Oil revealed that the Catcher development, located offshore UK, is expected to reach an output rate of 60,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) ahead of plan.

What such reports make look foolish are claims that "there is no more oil left to find". Extremist statements on both sides of the issue does not advance public understanding.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11012
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 11:58:47

ROCKMAN wrote:Not that it changes the inevitability of global PO but there's always more oil to develop. From:
https://www.rigzone.com/news/offshore_u ... 2-article/

"In its latest results update on Thursday, Premier Oil revealed that the Catcher development, located offshore UK, is expected to reach an output rate of 60,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) ahead of plan.

What such reports make look foolish are claims that "there is no more oil left to find". Extremist statements on both sides of the issue does not advance public understanding.

What does that do to UK overall production figures considering the continuing decline in the North sea? Perhaps back to 2008 or 2009 figures. Better to find it in UK waters then off in Siberian Russia.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8859
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 20:19:08

vt - Just a small short term peak never coming close to its all time high peak. Just momentary slow down on the way to the bottom. See chart...From https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/C ... -2019.html

"UK oil production peaked in 1999. The peak was probably pushed out a couple of years because of the major production interruptions following the Piper Alpha disaster. Production declined quickly until around 2011, then the high oil price allowed more brownfield and then greenfield developments that created a third local peak in 2016. Production is declining again this year but there are several large projects due that will create another peak in 2018 or 2019 (nearly equal to the 2016 one). After that terminal decline is likely. The chart below shows C&C production split according to the year of first production of the field."
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11012
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 20:58:18

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - Just a small short term peak never coming close to its all time high peak. Just momentary slow down on the way to the bottom. See chart...From https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/C ... -2019.html

"UK oil production peaked in 1999. The peak was probably pushed out a couple of years because of the major production interruptions following the Piper Alpha disaster. Production declined quickly until around 2011, then the high oil price allowed more brownfield and then greenfield developments that created a third local peak in 2016. Production is declining again this year but there are several large projects due that will create another peak in 2018 or 2019 (nearly equal to the 2016 one). After that terminal decline is likely. The chart below shows C&C production split according to the year of first production of the field."

That is about what I thought. A nice find but no new Ghawar.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8859
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 22:31:53

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - Just a small short term peak never coming close to its all time high peak. Just momentary slow down on the way to the bottom. See chart...From https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/C ... -2019.html

"UK oil production peaked in 1999. The peak was probably pushed out a couple of years because of the major production interruptions following the Piper Alpha disaster. Production declined quickly until around 2011, then the high oil price allowed more brownfield and then greenfield developments that created a third local peak in 2016. Production is declining again this year but there are several large projects due that will create another peak in 2018 or 2019 (nearly equal to the 2016 one). After that terminal decline is likely. The chart below shows C&C production split according to the year of first production of the field."


It seems odd to me that you would refer to the minor and short lived up tick in production in 2016 as a 'peak', it looks a lot more like a speed bump on the decline slope. The USA subsequent 'peak' from Alaska in the 1980's was a much more significant and longer lived phenomenon that might have driven the total USA peak substantially higher if it had occurred a decade or so earlier. This UK Speed Bump (tm) on the other hand would have been hardly noticed as an addition to the actual peak in 1999-2000.

Now if the UK undergoes its own version of the Fracking Miracle and gets back up to 1999 levels of production again even for a short time that would be a genuine new peak, and even if they only get up to say 500,000/bbl/d for a few months that would be a reasonable subsequential peak reminiscent of the Alaska bump on the USA graph.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14702
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 11:11:36

I wonder, if prices go back down again (due to further gluts) will we see Short reappear and claim victory for ETP?
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1787
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 12:45:30

The Shale "Revolution" occurred when the US Dollar became worthless (2008). What a coincidence. They couldn't find the "sweetspots" anytime before for some odd reason. Of course Shale was a brand new play (yuk yuk started in 1895) and of course it based based on new technology (yuk yuk 1980). I wonder why all that "genius" didn't happen until the financial collapse of 2008?

TRUTH: There are no sweetspots. Thats why the UK shale industry doesn't exist, nor Polish. Thats why GE faked its numbers. Knew that the annointed big shale scams were posting bogus numbers so they thought it would work for them too. But they are the fall guys. The Shale ponzi has to eat something to dust and its GE (currency debauchery for shale destroying the industrial base) . The gas turbines are idling because of the Wind Ponzi and nobody is paying the bills.

Scamerica cannot secure all the deep water proper conventional reservoir oil because the currency is worthless. Thats why shale "exists".

THE CURRENCY IS WORTHLESS

Image

Image
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 15:18:34

StarvingLion wrote:The Shale "Revolution" occurred when the US Dollar became worthless (2008). What a coincidence.


depends on how ignorant of the oil field the person is who put that year on the "shale revolution". No coincidence necessary if someone, say you, forgets about all the OTHER shale revolutions that you are ignorant of.

StarvingLion wrote:THE CURRENCY IS WORTHLESS

Image


You need to find a better chart. Yours doesn't show the increasing shale production going on right now. Do you cherry pick information SL because you know that otherwise your claims really would look foolish?

My worthless currency that I used to buy a car back in August of 2016 is still working fine, and you didn't disappear after I bet more than $10K that you were full of crap. I was right, and you were wrong. Out of curiosity, have you ever been right?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4298
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 11:43:30

BP down over 3% today. It is falling like a rock. XOM has resumed its freefall. GE hitting the $13 mark, been dropping for the past 18 years. Adam says thats normal.

Fusion bullshit going ballistic. The abiotic oil cranks are coming out of the woodwork.

Everybody is changing their name (eg. Statoil) selling themselves as JUST ANOTHER WINDMILL PEDDLER

People, this is TOTAL COLLAPSE in action.

Lets face it, The Dollar is backed by Weed, nothing else
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 11:56:46

StarvingLion wrote:BP down over 3% today. It is falling like a rock. XOM has resumed its freefall. GE hitting the $13 mark, been dropping for the past 18 years. Adam says thats normal.

And yet, I just looked, and the low quote for BP today was $38.66, or down barely over 2%. So now you're resorting to just flat out lying, or you can't do 3rd grade arithmetic?

Since when is cherry picking ONE stock like GE, indicitive of the global stock markets, or even the S&P 500 or similar broad based US index? (The S&P 500 has roughly doubled in the past 18 years, despite the down 00's decade into spring 2009).

Since when is cherry picking the action of a couple stocks for part of ONE trading day (when the stock markets are down) indicitive of ANYTHING?

People, this is TOTAL COLLAPSE in action.

Congratulations, you are making the likes of shorty seem downright sane and credible, and that really takes some wild nonsense. This is clearly "total collapse" only in your personal delusions.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5263
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 12:01:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:BP down over 3% today. It is falling like a rock. XOM has resumed its freefall. GE hitting the $13 mark, been dropping for the past 18 years. Adam says thats normal.

And yet, I just looked, and the low quote for BP today was $38.66, or down barely over 2%. So now you're resorting to just flat out lying, or you can't do 3rd grade arithmetic?

Since when is cherry picking ONE stock like GE, indicitive of the global stock markets, or even the S&P 500 or similar broad based US index? (The S&P 500 has roughly doubled in the past 18 years, despite the down 00's decade into spring 2009).

Since when is cherry picking the action of a couple stocks for part of ONE trading day (when the stock markets are down) indicitive of ANYTHING?

People, this is TOTAL COLLAPSE in action.

Congratulations, you are making the likes of shorty seem downright sane and credible, and that really takes some wild nonsense. This is clearly "total collapse" only in your personal delusions.


The Alphabet Soup Company (Google) will save you with its useless Algos.

Face it, you're toast. When the Oil Giants crater you'll you looking for the nearest building fire to jump into.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 22:57:59

The last thing anyone should do if they want to improve peak oil credibility is give StarvingLion a venue to rant.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
asg70
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1787
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 11:27:32

asg70 wrote:The last thing anyone should do if they want to improve peak oil credibility is give StarvingLion a venue to rant.

I don't want to give "peak oil" credibility, in terms of the fast crash doom scenario (the way most folks around here seem to frame the issue), because in the current overall world, that simply doesn't seem credible to me.

(OTOH, AGW in several decades, or (unless we do FAR more than the Paris Climate Accords to deal with it) persistent BAU growth and its implications over time -- those are problems to be seriously concerned about, IMO).

I'm much more into trying to look at actual data and moderate to long term trends and trying to, perhaps, discern a little of what is happening in the time scale of decades. That's plenty hard to do without the distraction of short term "peak oil" speculation when oil production closely follows economic growth, stays relatively affordable, and we're transitioning away from oil (to a large extent) for transportation in the coming decades anyway.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 5263
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 11:44:25

T - "It seems odd to me that you would refer to the minor and short lived up tick in production in 2016 as a 'peak'". I completely agree. But they used the term "peak". Which I took as a intentional effort to mislead any reader that did not look at the details. Which is exactly why I posted those details.

And I still get a laugh when I see PO "credibility" tossed out. Of course it's credible: it's a statistical FACT. Of course any effort to predict the date of global PO is subject to a credibility debate. But as we all know oil is a finite resource. And tech improvements and higher oil prices can increase the amount of oil being produced. But neither increases the amount of oil left in Mother Earth: that value remains finite. Which confirms the FACT that at some time the daily production of oil will peak and never again reach that level.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11012
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests