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Improving Peak Oil Credibility

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 28 Feb 2018, 11:20:06

AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:So...how about... Improving Peak Oil Credibility?

Good idea!! Any suggestions on how, considering the well has been poisoned by the oil-ignorant zealots, and branded the topic in such a way that it is just a joke at this point?


Again, as the catch-phrase goes "it's the data, stupid!"

To create the sense of clear and present danger about oil-supply, you must mount a compelling argument on the backs of the data.

I have seen attempts to do this, but none of them compelling. ETP was nothing if not an attempt to look scientific, was it not? Gail's articles, long-winded as they are, attempt to look as plausible as the old (discredited) Oil Drum articles before it.

The bar has been raised in order to convince people that there is an existential threat posed by peak oil.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 28 Feb 2018, 20:27:29

70 - "The bar has been raised in order to convince people that there is an existential threat posed by peak oil." Easy to see why the bar gets set at different levels. Remember oil at $100+/bbl? A growing PO crowd. The oil dropped below $30/bbls and the rats abandoned the ship.

And thus the basic problem: folks who think PO has anything to do with the price of oil. As long as such ignorance abounds the "bar" will continue to fluctuate.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 11:12:46

ROCKMAN wrote:And thus the basic problem: folks who think PO has anything to do with the price of oil.


People don't care about peak-oil per se. They care about their quality of life. That's where oil price matters.

Peak-oil that results in no perceivable impact on quality of life is a topic of only academic interest.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 12:42:19

70 - So true: the opposite side of the same coin. Folks n the US stopped worrying about oil supply when the price dropped below $40/bbl. But that ignores at least a few billion folks on the planet for whom oil was still expensive and out of reach for the most part. Log after the US reached its PO we still had adequate supplies because we could afford to import what we needed. At the same time many times the population of the US suffered for the lack of petroleum. Many countries have long passed their peak oil consumption and will never have anything close to what they once had. Even when that was just a tiny % of the per capita consumption we enjoyed.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 12:50:27

They care about their quality of life.


LOL. The Jobless "Consumer". Want to see the stock chart of General Electric since 2001 (aka dollar turning into worthless shit)? Nah, I didn't think so.

Siemens stock has been in total free fall the last 3 months, dropping from 130 to 106.

Siemens and GE employ about 3/4 of a million people more than all those other worthless shit internet companies combined.

And they are rapidly going out of business. They will be out of business by 2023.

I guess they'll all get "jobs" as internet hypesters
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 22:44:27

FWIW, even when the oil price was much higher, consumption for the rest of the world kept rising while that for the U.S., EU, and Japan dropped.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby marmico » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 08:28:06

I guess they'll all get "jobs" as internet hypesters


Unless you live in a cave or a silo, most people think things are ticking/muddling along okay.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 09:28:36

StarvingLion wrote:The Jobless "Consumer".


I'm all for pointing out the ways the world is going or will go to hell in a handbasket. Crediting peak oil for it is a different story.

Time and again I see peakers shift from a peak-oil mindset over to a general doom mindset, always forgetting to connect the dots. They just go scanning around google news for a depressing story and plant their flag. Doesn't work that way.

The thread is about improving peak oil credibility, not general doomerism.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 09:47:32

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:So...how about... Improving Peak Oil Credibility?

Good idea!! Any suggestions on how, considering the well has been poisoned by the oil-ignorant zealots, and branded the topic in such a way that it is just a joke at this point?


The bar has been raised in order to convince people that there is an existential threat posed by peak oil.


Yup. Because the NEXT time a peak comes along, the same zealots are going to come out of the woodwork and use the same ideas to claim the same results, and everyone who can objectively google for 10 seconds or so will discover what a crock they are attempting to sell. Again. And require data, thought, analysis rather than the religious belief that seems to be substituted for it on this topic.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 09:50:53

StarvingLion wrote:
They care about their quality of life.


LOL. The Jobless "Consumer".


Speak for yourself Mr. "Your Currency is Useless...except when you use it to purchase things but I forgot about that".

StarvingLion wrote: Want to see the stock chart of General Electric since 2001 (aka dollar turning into worthless shit)? Nah, I didn't think so.


You should see the stock chart for texaco since 2001! Oh, you don't want to, because it doesn't matter either.

So you've been reduced to hyping single stock market movements as proof of the "useless currency" angle you were pitching back in the summer of 2016? The useless currency angle didn't work out as you'd hoped then, but then, none of your ideas have ever worked out yet, have they SL? Why don't you go examine the "why" of that one?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby tita » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 10:41:43

ralfy wrote:FWIW, even when the oil price was much higher, consumption for the rest of the world kept rising while that for the U.S., EU, and Japan dropped.

Indeed... And not just in China. Every developing country was increasing its oil consumption after the "great recession", while it was decreasing in most of the economically developed countries.

It's just that US+Canada+Europe+Japan consume 50% of the oil produced, and have the highest per capita consumption. The elasticity is higher, with more superfluous usage. Consumption decreased by 7.6% in the last ten years.

But Africa, which represents 4% of total consumption (and only 2% if you take out South Africa, Egypt and Algeria) has much less superfluous usage, resulting in a much lower elasticity. Consumption increased by 33% in the last ten years!

So, the idea that poor countries can't afford oil if price goes up is not so simple. And the oil reduction of the "economically developed" countries represent the whole consumption of Africa.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 13:03:11

COLLAPSE UPDATE: Siemens stock is down 4% today, 8% in the last 2 days alone. Its in full blown collapse mode. I guess the "renewables" scam is falling apart like everything else.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 13:24:23

COLLAPSE UPDATE: Siemens stock is down 4% today, 8% in the last 2 days alone. Its in full blown collapse mode. I guess the "renewables" scam is falling apart like everything else.


My God talk about over the top panic.....it is at the same price it was back in November of 2017, much higher than it was at the start of 2017. Recent drops are part of the bull market correction that has happened recently and reaction to their IPO of the medical subsidiary.

I suggest you stay out of the stock market.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 13:47:19

rockdoc123 wrote:
COLLAPSE UPDATE: Siemens stock is down 4% today, 8% in the last 2 days alone. Its in full blown collapse mode. I guess the "renewables" scam is falling apart like everything else.


My God talk about over the top panic.....it is at the same price it was back in November of 2017, much higher than it was at the start of 2017. Recent drops are part of the bull market correction that has happened recently and reaction to their IPO of the medical subsidiary.

I suggest you stay out of the stock market.


Notice how all these renewable energy scams are changing their names...eg: Dong Energy is now Oersted. Oersted Company stock down 4% today. Has been dropping like a rock past 5 days.

Face it, its all about the collapsing US dollar again. Shale "Oil", "renewables",,,,fuggetaboutit. The currency is worthless.
Look at the chaos at peakoilbarrel.com. They are routinely F-wording each other because of mafias (climate change "scientists", sickcare system, "insurance""industry", "renewables", useless electronic tech toys, etc) all sending their bills to a bankrupt entity called fossil fuels.

The ff system is bankrupt. The currency is worthless. We are back to 2001 with the dollar nose diving into the ground. Won't take 7 years this time around. May collapse this year even.

America is one big Detroit. Google "worth" 800 billion??? Hahahahaha...the greatest scam in the history of the earth. Oops I forgot. Google changed its name to Alphabet. Great name, its a baby sitting service for adult children.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 14:01:43

The ff system is bankrupt. The currency is worthless. We are back to 2001 with the dollar nose diving into the ground. Won't take 7 years this time around. May collapse this year even.


Again, please stay out of the market for you own good. The US dollar index is at 90.00 down from it’s January high of 101 but 10 points higher than the average from 2008 through 2015. There is a reason they use the word “correction”.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 14:24:18

Here is FF collapse in action, people. The lights are about to go off in the UK forever.

Fri 2 March: National Grid’s first “gas deficit warning” for eight years has been withdrawn after supplies increased.

Thurs 1 March: National Grid has warned it may not have enough gas to meet UK demand on Thursday and has asked suppliers to provide more.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 20:37:15

StarvingLion wrote:COLLAPSE UPDATE: Siemens stock is down 4% today, 8% in the last 2 days alone. Its in full blown collapse mode. I guess the "renewables" scam is falling apart like everything else.


A stock went down!! Somewhere! Some amount!!

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 10:33:23

It's COLLAPSE UPDATE, with your anchor, Starving Lion!

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“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
--Onlooker, 1/1/2018
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 12:43:23

rockdoc123 wrote:
COLLAPSE UPDATE: Siemens stock is down 4% today, 8% in the last 2 days alone. Its in full blown collapse mode. I guess the "renewables" scam is falling apart like everything else.


My God talk about over the top panic.....it is at the same price it was back in November of 2017, much higher than it was at the start of 2017. Recent drops are part of the bull market correction that has happened recently and reaction to their IPO of the medical subsidiary.

I suggest you stay out of the stock market.

As far as actual content and quality of content re the economic message, SL sounds a lot like our (apparently recently banned) shortonoil.

Whether its the value of the dollar, any concept of pricing of stocks vs. time, or panic about some detail which is just noise in the big picture, his schtick is quite similar. Sock puppet?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 14:10:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:As far as actual content and quality of content re the economic message, SL sounds a lot like our (apparently recently banned) shortonoil.

Whether its the value of the dollar, any concept of pricing of stocks vs. time, or panic about some detail which is just noise in the big picture, his schtick is quite similar. Sock puppet?

If you look at the member profile for shortonoil there is no flag that says he is banned. Other member such as shortonsense clearly say permanently banned so apparently shortonoil is just keeping quite hoping against hope that oil prices will dive.
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