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Improving Peak Oil Credibility

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 30 Mar 2010, 15:03:58

AAA wrote:
shortonsense wrote:
AAA wrote:Majority of the PO members are a joke.


I might disagree.


There are 28,809 members on po.com and I bet less than 50 of them actually provide meaningful content.


I wasn't thinking of the total count when I made my comment, I was thinking more about the 50 or so who actually participate. Sure the lurker/registration group is pretty awful, that happens all over the place. I was thinking more about honest participants, only a few of those do it admittedly to screw with people, and we know who they are.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 07:45:14

shortonsense wrote: the Amish way of life had its opportunity to rule the world and lost out.



Why should there be a way of life to rule the world? How about a bunch of different ways to live? If you don't like the Amish way (I sure don't!), how about giving us some more options? Personally, I'd like to see more useful content from you about how you live, how you see yourself living in the future, and helpful information you have gathered about living. I find the most credible folks to be the ones who have solid, real -world information about different ways to live which they are implementing in their own lives and share on a regular basis here.

But that's just me. Other folks probably have other standards of credibility. :|
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 08:10:32

Why PO credibility in the first place?

Are we looking to recruit? For what?

And I believe that Heinberg(perLeananPONews) has it wrong this time. There is no way to transition this Society/Civilization
to a Resilient Downsize Economy.

The proGrowthers at all cost will simply take what Resilience 'leaves'
in the Tragedy of the Commons.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 08:13:57

Here's someone needing credibility:

Greer wrote:Third: Two workers in different countries work in identical factories, using identical tools to make identical products. One of them makes twenty dollars an hour plus a benefit package; the other makes two dollars a day with no benefits at all. Why is that?

The last one is the easiest, though you’ll have a hard time finding a single figure in American public life who will admit to the answer. It’s not considered polite these days to talk about America’s empire, despite the fact that we keep troops in 140 other countries, and the far from unrelated fact that the 5% of Earth’s population that live in the US use around a third of the world’s resources, energy, and consumer products. Like every other empire, we have a tribute economy; we dress it up in free-market drag by giving our trading partners mountains of worthless paper in return for the torrents of real wealth that flow into the US every day; but the result, now as in the past, is that the imperial nation and its inner circle of allies have a vast surplus of wealth sloshing through their economies.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 20:57:17

Ludi wrote:
shortonsense wrote: the Amish way of life had its opportunity to rule the world and lost out.



Why should there be a way of life to rule the world? How about a bunch of different ways to live?


Quite true. Seems reasonable to me....I hereby will advocate anyone and everything living as they please, with no judgments made as to which is "good" or "bad" or best. To each there own, from those cowering in the forests to those who become Amish to technotopians living in PV powered houses driving PV powered cars.

Ludi wrote:If you don't like the Amish way (I sure don't!), how about giving us some more options? Personally, I'd like to see more useful content from you about how you live, how you see yourself living in the future, and helpful information you have gathered about living.


I could wax on for HOURS!

But ever since I experienced the 1979 peak oil, my preps have been much more mundane than the farmers, bunker diggers, gold bugs, or those who hide in the woods waiting for their real estate to appreciate more than the Mcmansion around the corner.

For me its all been about education, professional experience, not falling for the consumer lifestyle, and conservation at every opportunity, with a few notable luxury exceptions of course.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 21:04:00

mcgowanjm wrote:Why PO credibility in the first place?


You might enjoy, and perhaps should be, lumped in with the crazies, but I do not enjoy it, and certainly don't belong lumped in with them.

mcgowanjm wrote:Are we looking to recruit? For what?


It would be nice to mouth the words "peak oil" in polite company and not get giggled at.

mcgowanjm wrote:And I believe that Heinberg(perLeananPONews) has it wrong this time. There is no way to transition this Society/Civilization
to a Resilient Downsize Economy.



This isn't the thread for what YOU believe, such as the starvation in March of this year which didn't show up, surprise surprise, but why peak oil has such a credibility issue, and how it might be possible to unstick it from being associated with the crazies.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 21:28:22

shortonsense wrote:
mcgowanjm wrote:Why PO credibility in the first place?


You might enjoy, and perhaps should be, lumped in with the crazies, but I do not enjoy it, and certainly don't belong lumped in with them.
:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: So we're drilling the ENTIRE
East Coast and Florida up to New Jersey.
Why.

W's Third Term from Mr Hope'n Change. BWAHAHAHAHA


mcgowanjm wrote:Are we looking to recruit? For what?


It would be nice to mouth the words "peak oil" in polite company and not get giggled at.
:roll: 8O It would be nice to have polite company understand
Quantum Physics, Parabolic Curves, and why they always
crash in Non Linear fashion, but they can't even understand
how not paying off their cards and not getting advanced loans
on a paycheck are guaranteed losers.


mcgowanjm wrote:And I believe that Heinberg(perLeananPONews) has it wrong this time. There is no way to transition this Society/Civilization
to a Resilient Downsize Economy.




This isn't the thread for what YOU believe(Really? Says you;}, such as the starvation in March of this year which didn't show up( :evil: and of course you know this how? :evil: , surprise surprise, but why peak oil has such a credibility issue(in your head), and how it might be possible to unstick it from being associated with the crazies. :twisted: Like the DoE? IEA? Oil is a Renewable Resource? 8)


Bwahahahaha This really is too much. Science just isn't you.
Or Political Economy. Just exactly how do you think your Gov't
would break it to you that say 7 million Americans had starved to death.

You do realize that millions died during the Last Depression, eh?



we won't have the energy to power a gradual energy descent.
#
# Oil consumers will run out of money before oil companies run out of places to drill
# The agony of the industrial age can be prolonged by destroying what's left of the biosphere
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 21:44:29

So. To Recap. Mr Bobo just opened up the enitre
Eastern Seaboard and all of the GOM to offshore
drilling and Mexico oil exports to the US fall by the day.

The Canadians are turning the Athabasca into a flammable
Cuyahoga River and Alberta into Moonscape.

No matter what the price, EROEI continues to fall by the day
but we're still trying to get credibility for PO on the PO Forum.

Go to Hell. It's not even halfway full. :twisted: 8O 8)

* People do not like to be persuaded by fact or logical argument
* People like their comforts: cars, HVAC, etc.
* People are seduced by TV, consumerism
* Manual labor and farming are low-status activities
* People lack the skills to lead a non-mechanized existence
* It is almost impossible to convince people to do what will be necessary - until it becomes necessary
* It will be almost impossible to do what is necessary without a significant amount of preparation

* Those who take the trouble to prepare will be a tiny minority.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 21:52:12

mcgowanjm wrote:You do realize that millions died during the Last Depression, eh?


Do you have any statistics to back this up?
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Loki » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 22:35:57

mcgowanjm wrote: * People do not like to be persuaded by fact or logical argument
* People like their comforts: cars, HVAC, etc.
* People are seduced by TV, consumerism
* Manual labor and farming are low-status activities
* People lack the skills to lead a non-mechanized existence
* It is almost impossible to convince people to do what will be necessary - until it becomes necessary
* It will be almost impossible to do what is necessary without a significant amount of preparation

* Those who take the trouble to prepare will be a tiny minority.


Dmitri Orlov wrote this. Attribution is always nice.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Loki » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 23:11:42

mos6507 wrote:
mcgowanjm wrote:You do realize that millions died during the Last Depression, eh?


Do you have any statistics to back this up?


Starvation wasn't a problem in the US during the Depression, despite the bizarre claims floating around the internet (7 million seems to be a popular figure, and the Jews were apparently responsible). The birth rate did decline, though.

It is, however, well documented that Stalin killed millions in the Holodomor.

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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 01 Apr 2010, 23:52:12

mos6507 wrote:
mcgowanjm wrote:You do realize that millions died during the Last Depression, eh?


Do you have any statistics to back this up?


I hate to quote Pravda of all sources, but this is the best I could dig up:

The researcher, Boris Borisov, in his article titled “The American Famine” estimated the victims of the financial crisis in the US at over seven million people. The researcher also directly compared the US events of 1932-1933 with Holodomor, or Famine, in the USSR during 1932-1933.

In the article, Borisov used the official data of the US Census Bureau. Having revised the number of the US population, birth and date rates, immigration and emigration, the researcher came to conclusion that the United States lost over seven million people during the famine of 1932-1933.

According to the US statistics, the US lost not less than 8 million 553 thousand people from 1931 to 1940. Afterwards, population growth indices change twice instantly exactly between 1930-1931: the indices drop and stay on the same level for ten years. There can no explanation to this phenomenon found in the extensive text of the report by the US Department of Commerce “Statistical Abstract of the United States,” the author wrote.
http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/105255-0/


Everything else I found doesn't cite a source, but the number thrown around ranges from 7 - 16 million.

EDIT: I deleted a reference to the Dust Bowl after I found one source saying only 7,000 died from dustbowl pneumonia (though it did drive 2.5 million people into homelessness). But really who even knows, medical understanding wasn't what it is today, and lots of statistics weren't even reported or tracked.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Loki » Fri 02 Apr 2010, 00:43:05

Sixstrings wrote:I hate to quote Pravda of all sources, but this is the best I could dig up

Sorry, but it's complete and utter bullshit. There was hunger, yes, but 7 million people did not starve to death in the United States during the Great Depression. It just didn't happen.

I used to work as a research historian and I've done quite a bit of primary research (newpapers, photographs, reminiscences, etc.) on how people here in the Pacific Northwest fared during the Depression. NEVER did I come across anyone starving to death.

This is painfully obvious Russian propaganda, based entirely on a massaging of census data. An honest historian would never make a claim like this without a mountain of evidence.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 02 Apr 2010, 02:09:10

Loki wrote:
Sixstrings wrote:I hate to quote Pravda of all sources, but this is the best I could dig up

Sorry, but it's complete and utter bullshit. There was hunger, yes, but 7 million people did not starve to death in the United States during the Great Depression. It just didn't happen.


Well I tend to agree with you Loki, I just posted the only info I was able to find. Here's another article on this from RT:

Where did America’s missing millions go?

An attempt to get access to demographic statistics is followed by many surprises right away: statistics from 1932 were destroyed – or hidden very well.** They just don’t exist. No explanation is given. Yes, they appear later, in statistical reports as retrospective charts. A diligent researcher will also be surprised studying these charts.

First, if you believe American statistics, in the 10 years from 1931 to 1940, 8,553,000 people were lost. And what is interesting is that the numbers of increase in population change at one point by 2 times – exactly at the border between 1930/31. They fall and freeze at this level for 10 years. And just as suddenly, a decade later, they climb back up. No explanation for this is found in the extensive report of the US Department of commerce’s “Statistical Abstract of the United States”. Even thought it is full of comments on other less significant issues.
http://rt.com/prime-time/2008-10-15/Where_did_Americas_missing_millions_go_Holodomor_Lessons_.html


Is anyone able to refute the claims about the census numbers? (l don't think a lower birthrate could account for the 8 million discrepancy -- people still have kids, whether they can feed them or not, and there was zero birth control back then).
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 02 Apr 2010, 02:39:48

8 million people can not just disappear like that. If that many people died of starvation, there would be a lot of supporting documentation, as well as some vivid memories on the part of surviving family members, just as there is with the holocaust. The depression was bad, but people were largely propped up by FDR's New Deal welfare programs.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 02 Apr 2010, 05:53:05

People "went missing" during the Depression because so many were constantly on the move looking for work and due to homelessness. They moved around for years. A few probably died of exposure.

Image


I've seen a substantial increase in the number of "men of the road" the past couple years.

They ask for money at various intersections, but I haven't ever seen any of them at the Home Depot trying to pick up some day labor.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 02 Apr 2010, 11:04:17

mos6507 wrote:8 million people can not just disappear like that. (sure they can) If that many people died of starvation, there would be a lot of supporting documentation, as well as some vivid memories on the part of surviving family members, just as there is with the holocaust. The depression was bad, but people were largely propped up by FDR's New Deal welfare programs.


Documentation? From who? Tom Joads? The Census Docs I have
According to the calculations, in 1940, the US population should have amounted to at least 141,856,000 people, given that the previous demographic tendency was preserved. But in reality in 1940 the population was 131,409,000, 3,054,000 of which can be explained by the change in the migration dynamics.

Thus, 7,394,000 persons as of the year 1940 are actually absent. There is no official explanation of this fact.

By who? The folks who took over the now abandoned
farms?

I've noted that Famines track the world over.
Of the more than 1 million Ukrainian farmers expropriated in the early 1930s, ... On August 7, 1932,


Just like Oklahoma.


First, if you believe American statistics, in the 10 years from 1931 to 1940, 8,553,000 people were lost. And what is interesting is that the numbers of increase in population change at one point by 2 times – exactly at the border between 1930/31. They fall and freeze at this level for 10 years. And just as suddenly, a decade later, they climb back up. No explanation for this is found in the extensive report of the US Department of commerce’s “Statistical Abstract of the United States”. Even thought it is full of comments on other less significant issues.

The issue is just avoided.


And good luck finding how millions of First Nation disappeared.

Kinda like Lost American Battles-Chosin Reservoir comes to mind,
or Afghanistan now. Think it was an accident that the POTUS
charged with ending the Afghan Invasion flew into Bagram
at night, for only a couple of hours of 'We won't quit' and 'tell
Karzai I'm comin'. :roll:
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Fri 02 Apr 2010, 11:13:42

The REAL reason the unemployment rate is ‘improving’ is because millions of people have exhausted their benefits and are now no longer ‘counted’ as unemployed.]


March U6 as bad or worse than Feb. Where are these people
going?

Food Banks are overwhelmed. I note that the latest April jobs extension has not happened:

#
#
Gridlock holds up unemployment benefit extension, again - Mar. 26 ...
Mar 26, 2010 ... Thousands to lose jobless benefits April 5 .... Surviving a long-term job search. Looking for work is never easy but for the long-term ...
money.cnn.com/2010/03/26/news/.../unemployment_benefits/ - Cached
#
Millions will lose unemployment benefit extensions April 5th, page


Since the beginning of the recession, Congress has passed four separate extensions for unemployment compensation benefits. The first tier extended benefits for an additional 20 weeks, the second 14 weeks, the third 13 weeks, and the fourth six weeks.

These extra weeks are added to the regular state benefits of 26 weeks. Congress also passed a law adding an additional $25 a week to each claimant's state benefits.

All of these measures are set to expire April 5, 2010. DIR will be notifying claimants by mail as their benefits expire.

The Department estimates that at least 20,000 Alabamians will be immediately affected by this change.

Happy Easter! WWJD :roll:
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Loki » Fri 02 Apr 2010, 11:42:45

Sixstrings wrote:Is anyone able to refute the claims about the census numbers? (l don't think a lower birthrate could account for the 8 million discrepancy -- people still have kids, whether they can feed them or not, and there was zero birth control back then).


Pretty much all the modern mass famines that I've looked at have a political root cause, and are very well documented, even in tyrannical regimes. The Holomodor and Mao's Great Famine are prime examples---communists seem to be particularly good at starving millions of people to death, but they're not as good at destroying public memory of the events.

We didn't have that political spark here in the US. We had the New Deal, which as Mos points out, actually helped people.

As for that Russian propagandist's "interpretation" of US census data, the numbers are almost certainly cooked. It is well known that birth rates dropped in the Depression---marriage rates dropped, and I suspect illegal use of abortions and birth control increased (they did have limited birth control in the 1930s). There was also significant out-migration of immigrants, some of it forced.

Besides, the onus of proof is on the so-called historian from Russia, since his claims go against EVERYTHING every other historian of the period has found. His bullshit seems to have struck a chord with the more fringe conspiracy types. I googled his name and Stormfront, Illuminati.org, etc. popped up. :roll:
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 03 Apr 2010, 09:02:25

mcgowanjm wrote:Bwahahahaha This really is too much. Science just isn't you.


I told you before, I tested your assumptions on starvation on large groups of Americans and couldn't find them. Please provide the evidence of starvation which was supposed to take place during March of 2010.

Certainly such a ridiculous claim wasn't mine, and certainly I just finished a 10 state trip and couldn't find a one. Think among the hundreds of people I interacted with, all the starving ones were hiding somewhere?


mcgowanjm wrote:You do realize that millions died during the Last Depression, eh?


Loki seems to have handled your nonsense on this one already.

Why don't you work on finding a current starving American somewhere, that might lead you to his 49 million buddies which seem to be invisible.
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