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Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby Cloud9 » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 06:56:13

The thing that tickles me the most is the vast multitude that has the absolute need to believe somebody is in control whether it be the Illuminati, the Nazis, the Elders of Zion or the Communist. The show is too large. No body is in control. The guy that thinks he is in control is deluded. Many of the people who are supposed to be in charge can’t even plan a picnic.

Hell’s bells, the top Dem thinks that 500 million of us are losing our jobs every month.
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby Blacksmith » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 12:01:04

In his book "Fortune Favors The Bold", Lester Thurow in 2003 forecast the collapse of the US economy.

He admitted at the time that he had no idea how fast it would happen.
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby davep » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 12:54:01

The urgency of the situation has gone up by an order of magnitude since this thread was first started. I think it is imminent (over the next 1-4 years). Hence my buying crude option calls for Dec 2013 (at 150 dollars). This devaluation of the dollar and reducing output should ensure that 150 dollars a barrel in five years time will seem cheap.

I'll either make a fortune from leverage as the dollar plummets or I'll lose a few grand. It's a risk worth taking.

Edit: or the Government will declare all energy derivatives illegal for individuals and/or foreign investors. 8O
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby hironegro » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 13:12:33

How many claims have you guys been wrong about so far?
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby davep » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 13:17:14

hironegro wrote:How many claims have you guys been wrong about so far?


Who are 'you guys'?
What we think, we become.
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby hironegro » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 13:52:29

davep wrote:
hironegro wrote:How many claims have you guys been wrong about so far?


Who are 'you guys'?


Doomers and people who started their sentences with "folks" on these boards.
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 15:15:01

davep wrote:The urgency of the situation has gone up by an order of magnitude since this thread was first started. I think it is imminent (over the next 1-4 years). Hence my buying crude option calls for Dec 2013 (at 150 dollars). This devaluation of the dollar and reducing output should ensure that 150 dollars a barrel in five years time will seem cheap.

I'll either make a fortune from leverage as the dollar plummets or I'll lose a few grand. It's a risk worth taking.
I think MrBill would have a thing or two to say about one way bets like that. ;) I would spread out what I have so it's more of a hedge and less of a risk, w/ fewer rewards too, but that's just me.
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 14:04:29

shortonoil wrote:Sounds like you believe that fairy tale that the WTC fell down because a couple of mad arabs hit it with airplanes! America my home, land of the delusional thinker.


A 9/11 truther!! While I'll be! Fits right in with falling for peak oil a decade ago though. So shorty, how are you are alien overlord conspiracies, does your love of fantasy thinking include Ickes?

https://www.theatlantic.com/national/ar ... nt/354496/
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 01 Jul 2017, 14:07:45

davep wrote:The urgency of the situation has gone up by an order of magnitude since this thread was first started. I think it is imminent (over the next 1-4 years). Hence my buying crude option calls for Dec 2013 (at 150 dollars). This devaluation of the dollar and reducing output should ensure that 150 dollars a barrel in five years time will seem cheap.


I hope Dave didn't go bankrupt on this one. Listening to shorty and his "peak oil happened and oil prices are only headed up!!" routine...before he decided that "peak oil is all about increasing production, glut and ever lower prices!!" routine anyway.


davep wrote:I'll either make a fortune from leverage as the dollar plummets or I'll lose a few grand. It's a risk worth taking.


So a few grand isn't all bad. Was worried there for a minute you had bet the farm, or like Ruppert when it turned out he was exposed as a intellectual midget, BOUGHT the farm!
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 11:07:33

Good work, Adam. It's amazing how indistinguishable the nature of the debate was back then vs. now, i.e. how utterly convinced some people were that doom of some sort was "imminent". You can also see how attempts to inject reality were met with knee-jerk scorn so that doomers could resume their endless hand-wringing. Not that different today after all.
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 11:45:12

When the debt ceiling can no longer be raised the dollar is dead! Between the Intelligence Agencies trying to take over, bipartisan gridlock, media versus the Administrative Branch; and all the rest of rotten stew that feeds DC, Washington is now all but paralyzed! We are on autopilot and no one is at the helm. The federal government is now a blind leviathan staggering toward the nearest abyss. When it finally goes over it will take all those FRNs with it. Texas Freedom Dollars might be a good investment?
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 13:27:58

shortonoil wrote:When the debt ceiling can no longer be raised the dollar is dead!


Fortunate then that the government can print money, devaluing American lifestyles as they go, and keeping ahead of the game. No one ever taught you the time value of money in project management schule?

shortonoil wrote: Between the Intelligence Agencies trying to take over, bipartisan gridlock, media versus the Administrative Branch; and all the rest of rotten stew that feeds DC, Washington is now all but paralyzed!


And to think how much you wanted to blame everything on Bush, amazing that the world didn't end under him, like you thought it would! Just a quick question, do you have ANY bone in your body that might have an ounce of objective marrow, or are you just in this for the $$ now that you've realized that people around here are just as gullible as you once were? So you are selling them recycled stew except with new and cool equations and a great R squared!!

shortonoil wrote:We are on autopilot and no one is at the helm.


Did LaRouche sell you that one?
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 12:12:46

"The dollars' decline is inevitable but a sudden collapse is indeed undesirable!

However, its speed of decline could be more accelerated than some believe because of the very instrument the US had used to anchor the dollar as a reserved currency, namely OPEC!

With most of Saudi's oil being bought by China and little by an internally energy sufficient US, the Saudis could change to accepting Yuan instead of the dollar! The other Gulf states, to capture part of China's increasing larger volume of energy purchases would follow suit.

Russia, soon the largest gas and oil supplier to China has already done!

This would diminish the US dollar quickly although it may or may not cause it's collapse!

The latter depends on whether China engages in mutual sanctions with a US initiated one!

Without cheap and good Chinese consumer products, US inflation would jump hundreds of per cent. It could rapidly lead to the collapse of not only the US dollar but the US economy itself.

To China, the US trade is big but getting less significant!"
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 12:49:47

shortonoil wrote:When the debt ceiling can no longer be raised the dollar is dead! Between the Intelligence Agencies trying to take over, bipartisan gridlock, media versus the Administrative Branch; and all the rest of rotten stew that feeds DC, Washington is now all but paralyzed! We are on autopilot and no one is at the helm. The federal government is now a blind leviathan staggering toward the nearest abyss. When it finally goes over it will take all those FRNs with it. Texas Freedom Dollars might be a good investment?

So will the same folks that "caused 911" be the ones to cause the US dollar to fail, real soon now?

In the context of such delusions, your ETP cheerleading makes a lot more sense.
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 12:58:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:When the debt ceiling can no longer be raised the dollar is dead! Between the Intelligence Agencies trying to take over, bipartisan gridlock, media versus the Administrative Branch; and all the rest of rotten stew that feeds DC, Washington is now all but paralyzed! We are on autopilot and no one is at the helm. The federal government is now a blind leviathan staggering toward the nearest abyss. When it finally goes over it will take all those FRNs with it. Texas Freedom Dollars might be a good investment?

So will the same folks that "caused 911" be the ones to cause the US dollar to fail, real soon now?

In the context of such delusions, your ETP cheerleading makes a lot more sense.

Tanada strictly forbade inclusion of ETP into diverse discussions. ETP is an intellectual infection that must be wiped out :-x Same with 911
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 13:00:45

onlooker wrote:"The dollars' decline is inevitable but a sudden collapse is indeed undesirable!

However, its speed of decline could be more accelerated than some believe because of the very instrument the US had used to anchor the dollar as a reserved currency, namely OPEC!

With most of Saudi's oil being bought by China and little by an internally energy sufficient US, the Saudis could change to accepting Yuan instead of the dollar! The other Gulf states, to capture part of China's increasing larger volume of energy purchases would follow suit.

Russia, soon the largest gas and oil supplier to China has already done!

This would diminish the US dollar quickly although it may or may not cause it's collapse!

The latter depends on whether China engages in mutual sanctions with a US initiated one!

Without cheap and good Chinese consumer products, US inflation would jump hundreds of per cent. It could rapidly lead to the collapse of not only the US dollar but the US economy itself.

To China, the US trade is big but getting less significant!"

Once again, the whole "reserve currency" thing is greatly overblown.

There are huge, liquid, currency futures markets. Countries, oil producers, and oil consumers can easily hold or hedge their dollar holdings in whatever currency they like instead of dollars. (That't roughly $5 trillion per trading day of typical liquidity).

(Then if need be, for the reserve currency "books", they can nominally hold the dollars they need to purchase the oil for a second, or a minute if need be, and the whole "dollar reserve currency" requirement is taken care of).

Countries are also discussing arrangements to trade oil directly using currencies such as "regional" currencies, where the dollar doesn't even play a part on the books, as you refer to (with a great sense of FUD).

This is all well known by people who actually know something about economics, including the major oil producers, consumers, and the folks who manage national economic policies. Has the dollar dramatically fallen in response? Nope. Has it fallen at all in response? If it has, it's not enough to tell.

You need to work on some other fable for collapse, like pumping the various ETP threads. (No more valid, but you get to use big words like "thermodynamics".)
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 13:07:47

pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
shortonoil wrote:When the debt ceiling can no longer be raised the dollar is dead! Between the Intelligence Agencies trying to take over, bipartisan gridlock, media versus the Administrative Branch; and all the rest of rotten stew that feeds DC, Washington is now all but paralyzed! We are on autopilot and no one is at the helm. The federal government is now a blind leviathan staggering toward the nearest abyss. When it finally goes over it will take all those FRNs with it. Texas Freedom Dollars might be a good investment?

So will the same folks that "caused 911" be the ones to cause the US dollar to fail, real soon now?

In the context of such delusions, your ETP cheerleading makes a lot more sense.

Tanada strictly forbade inclusion of ETP into diverse discussions. ETP is an intellectual infection that must be wiped out :-x Same with 911

Poor pstarr. He and his brothers in nonsense are so picked on for being asked to focus the nonsense within the nonsense related threads, so the adults in the room can focus on topics with substance.

When you were a child, did you hold protest marches when you were told to do math in math class?

If you don't like the rules here, you can always set up your own website and limit the discussions to whatever you like.
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 13:15:46

A quick glance tells me it's not nonsense. But then who am I? Just more nonsense I guess lol
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 13:38:57

I suppose there could be some truth in worrying about the dollar, if you consider that Republican agenda of shrinking the size of the US Government to "something that can be drowned in the bathtub." Otherwise, these sentiments are largely those of people who can't think around corners. They don't understand debt as anything other than a burden, and not as something that can grow an economy. Gold seems like a panacea to them. They don't know a gold standard comes with a host of troubles that hamstring a modern economy. It's this same short sightedness that constrains the working class, causing them to largely vote against their own self-interests. It makes heroes of radio personalities who have deep, manly voices. It drives gun sales. There is no grace in it, only the official sort of kindness that leaves out those who don't qualify.

By the way, the dollar would go up if the US experienced deflation, and gold would go down. It's only in an inflationary crisis that gold would go up. And hyperinflation only occurs when the people more or less lose all faith in their currency. That can happen, the red headed man-infant only has to stay in charge longer than a sane electorate should allow him. Just keep calling black white and white black a little too long and see what happens. Let's call it the grand experiment of the early 21st Century for the United States.
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Re: Imminent collapse of the US dollar

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 12 Aug 2017, 14:06:17

You need to work on some other fable for collapse, like pumping the various ETP threads. (No more valid, but you get to use big words like "thermodynamics".)


You need to learn what they mean, or just stay in your state of blissful ignorance. It doesn't bother the rest of us at all!

@onlooker

However, its speed of decline could be more accelerated than some believe because of the very instrument the US had used to anchor the dollar as a reserved currency, namely OPEC!


OPEC is certainly a weak point in the entire system. The Arabs have never been able to work for the common good for long before individual advantage breaks down such aliases. With their old and depleted out fields, now unable to finance their social networks for much longer, they will only fragment that much more rapidly.

The US dollar is, however, only one player in a world wide game of fiat. The major one for sure, but not the only one. The world's central banks are owned by a handful of people who run all of them on the same theory. The world economy is now in decline. We know that because the sum of world GDP increases are less than the sum of new debt formation. Presently almost 10 to 1. The only way that existing debt can be serviced is from the liquidity formation that is originating at the central banks. Otherwise the entire monetary/ financial system would collapse almost instantly from an avalanche of cascading defaults. $250 trillion of them!

The world is now linked into an organizational structure that can literally fail in a few microseconds. A bank in Brussels can fail within a second of a bank in New York. No human interaction needed. The weak point in the entire structure is now the credit markets. The central banks can print an infinite quantity of fiat, but they need the credit system to get it into the system. That has been stretched to its limit. Eight year, zero down, zero interest car loans along side $trillions in shale financing that can never be paid back are only the tip of this sinking ship. We are getting very close to the point where no one will be comfortable that their counter party is solvent. When that day arrives everyone's currency will collapse. The bolivar, the riyal, and the dollar will all be in the same boat together.

Will the US dollar collapse? When it does it will be right along with all of the other same forms of currency. Being US centric is a very constrained point of view!
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