I was a member of this forum in 2003/2004

[babystrangeloop]

I have an old local Newpaper from the 1920s, bought it at a garage sale just because I like old things.

It's a shame all I have is http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/

[meemoe_uk]

>May I ask who was saying peak oil is now, a hundred years ago?
Doomers transistioned from running outers to peakers when Hubbert's paper became popular. It was necessary to hold up Hubbert's paper to the lime light because the oil industry in the US was booming and had vanquished the short and middle term prospect of 'running out' of oil. It was a way of keeping the scaremongery going while there was no immediate threat.
So strictly there were no 'peakers' 100 years ago. But there was plenty of hype in the papers about running out, and people believed it.

> I know Hubbert published a paper in 1956, saying U.S. oil would peak between 1965-1970 (depending on initial reserve assumptions)...and he was right.
It was obvious to anyone in the 1950s oil industry that the US was going to experience a peak. Not because of a geological limit, but because a far more bountiful oil source had been secured by the american oil majors abroad ( middle east ). The industry choose to abandon US oil. So it wasn't any great foresight on Hubbert's part.

> If I recall correctly, he didn't get much respect at the time of publication, just as you are not giving respect to those of today that have analyzed the data.
I've gave them my full respect and attention from 2006 to 2008, only to find that PO_is_Now is a timeless myth based on a few subtle and compelling obfuscations of the truth.

If you remember the fable correctly, the wolf eventually came...
Yes, but it was no good listening to the boy. It's no good listening to the peak oil hype crowd for signs of imminent peak oil. You have to look elsewhere.


>At the end of the day, what you cannot deny is that we only have one planet and it can't support everyone living like Americans.
Nuclear power is potentially 10,000 to 100,000 greater than chemical power. Fission and Fusion could potentially keep human civilization going till long after the sun has stopped burning. Today we have the tech and nuclear fuels to potentially keep everyone prosperous for a few thousand years. So for our practical purposes, energy is not a problem.
It's TPTB that choose to keep civilization on a strict energy diet.

[babystrangeloop]

Fusion could potentially keep human civilization going till long after the sun has stopped burning.

Put a "potential" in your tank.

[BasilBoy]

meemoe...your logic is very hard to follow. I don't understand your analysis:

Doomers transistioned from running outers to peakers when Hubbert's paper became popular. It was necessary to hold up Hubbert's paper to the lime light because the oil industry in the US was booming and had vanquished the short and middle term prospect of 'running out' of oil. It was a way of keeping the scaremongery going while there was no immediate threat.
So strictly there were no 'peakers' 100 years ago. But there was plenty of hype in the papers about running out, and people believed it.

It was obvious to anyone in the 1950s oil industry that the US was going to experience a peak. Not because of a geological limit, but because a far more bountiful oil source had been secured by the american oil majors abroad ( middle east ). The industry choose to abandon US oil. So it wasn't any great foresight on Hubbert's part.

So, it was obvious to the oil industry that U.S. oil would peak and Hubbert's data showed when it would happen, yet it was scaremongering and hype to present this truth to the public?

I've gave them my full respect and attention from 2006 to 2008, only to find that PO_is_Now is a timeless myth based on a few subtle and compelling obfuscations of the truth.

So, again...it was obvious and Hubbert published a paper that was spot on, yet it's still a timeless myth? The only thing we don't know is the exact time global peak oil will happen, but we have various estimates that are all relatively close to one another. So, the question is not whether or not global peak oil will happen, it's a question of when it will happen...and everyone is in agreement that it will happen sooner rather than later. How is it a timeless myth?

The real myth is to ignore facts to preserve one's own delusional world view. Religion has played this role for centuries and now we have political ideologies and corporate propaganda to add to the mix...

[Loki]

Was this site even around in 2003?

As for the troll, you may not have noticed, but we saw a massive spike in the price of oil in 2008, on the heels of which came the worst depression since the 1930s.

But no worries, all this peak oil crap is nonsense right?

[ritter]

you may not have noticed, but we saw a massive spike in the price of oil in 2008, on the heels of which came the worst depression since the 1930s.

But no worries, all this peak oil crap is nonsense right?

And it appears we might be looking down the second barrel of that particular shotgun right now....

[babystrangeloop]

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much.

Insight: Wall Street, Fed face off over physical commodities
David Sheppard, Jonathan Leff and Josephine Mason / Reuters / March 2, 2012

Morgan Stanley's commodity trading revenues have fallen by some 60 percent over the past three years. Goldman Sachs' commodities business revenues fell from $4.6 billion in 2009 to $1.6 billion in each of the past two years.

... It wasn't supposed to be like this.

After Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley converted to Bank Holding Companies at the peak of the financial crisis to gain emergency access to discounted Fed funds, many bankers confidently predicted that they would be able to carry on trading in much the same way as before. ...

[vision-master]

Was this site even around in 2003?

As for the troll, you may not have noticed, but we saw a massive spike in the price of oil in 2008, on the heels of which came the worst depression since the 1930s.

But no worries, all this peak oil crap is nonsense right?

Thu Apr 15, 2004..................

[AgentR11]

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much.

Were you in a coma 2008-2009?
Just the first thumpin with many more to come over the next couple decades.

[don't think]..you have to stock up on food.

While you don't HAVE to stock up on food; having a reasonable and functional pantry at your residence always makes good sense. If everyone would do that, and find a way to keep a few days of water around, Emergency Management agencies would have MUCH less to worry about, and could go get real work done when bad things happen.

A thirty day pantry isn't even really all that difficult to manage.

[babystrangeloop]

A thirty day pantry isn't even really all that difficult to manage.

But I'm spoiled and only want to eat fresh food all year round.

I guess I could rotate the canned goods by giving them to charities.

But how to store coffee? It only lasts two weeks after it's been roasted.

[Wootan]

But how to store coffee? It only lasts two weeks after it's been roasted.

Roast it yourself. Unroasted coffee stores quite well.

[babystrangeloop]

But how to store coffee? It only lasts two weeks after it's been roasted.

Roast it yourself. Unroasted coffee stores quite well.

All set for self-sufficency!

[Concerned]

Peak oil is here.

Global economic contraction, resource wars and $100+ oil.

At $100 bbl the annual cost to the global economy is 3 Trillion dollars given an 85million per day consumption.

Expect more inflation, and Richard Heinberg's explanation of the economy going one step forward and two steps back being the how the future unfolds.

From your post I pretty much understand things to be I've got a job, my home, can pay my bills therefore everything is ok.

[babystrangeloop]

But how to store coffee? It only lasts two weeks after it's been roasted.

Roast it yourself. Unroasted coffee stores quite well.

The art of judging latte art
By Jeshurun Webb, Imprint / Salon / February 27, 2012

My husband manages a coffee shop, and we actually met in a coffee shop. As you can imagine, our kitchen has an espresso machine, an industrial grinder, a home grinder, two coffee pots, an iced coffee maker, a french press, a pour over kit… Needless to say, we’re well-equipped in case there is an apocalypse and the new currency is coffee beans. ...

You laugh but I'll be a post-apocalpyse bean dealer.

[cipi604]

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much.

Now this should scary you, nothing has changed. Except EROEI

[meemoe_uk]

>So, it was obvious to the oil industry that U.S. oil would peak and Hubbert's data showed when it would happen, yet it was scaremongering and hype to present this truth to the public?

If Huberts peak prediction had been presented in correct context, an appropriate headline in 1954 would have been " New age of prosperity for USA and world to last at least 50 years as huge and easy new oil reserves to be exploited in middle east!, they're better than USA fields, so USA production will fall and industry goes for better pickings ".
Also note this wasn't because remaning USA fields were 'hard' oil. They were easy, it's just that middle east oil fields were even easier.

So Hubbert's paper was the truth and a sign of prosperity for at least 1954 to 2004, but the PO_doom_is_Now religion dressed it up as doom.

This should have been apparent in my last post, if you don't understand it in this rephrasal, I can't help you.

[babystrangeloop]

" New age of prosperity for USA and world to last at least 50 years as huge and easy new oil reserves to be exploited in middle east!, they're better than USA fields, so USA production will fall and industry goes for better pickings ".

[spot5050]

... and I remembered 9 years ago when I used to think the sky was falling. I used to visit this site every day and read all the doom threads in a haze of depression. I sat around wondering how I was going to stock up on food and supplies.

Now it's 9 years later and the world has not changed much.

Me too. The hydrocarbon world as we know it will come to an end eventually, but not as soon as the doomers would have us believe, and not as soon as I thought when I joined these forums.

When I found these PO forums I went out and bought lots of tinned food because at the time it seemed urgent. It's not urgent. The oil will run out, but not next week. It's a generational thing.

[pstarr]

He bought tinned food! what a doofus. I bought property and learned to farm. Stood me well.

[Armageddon]

A guy jumps out of a 50 story building and about half way down he says, see this isn't so bad.