I just had the hope knocked out of me

[AgentR11]

Just get a scooter.

A lot of people are, and more will, as long as you don't need to carry much, they are quite effective. However, I find great sport in doing stuff without relying on motors. Think of it as a derivative of Wilderness Area rules for urban/ex-urban psychopaths. So, I'll be sticking with the bicycle, and its pile of fiddly tools and oddball, special order, parts.

[Tanada]

Ancient construction moved to ancient-archetecture-t63815-15.html

[Loki]

While we are on the subject of "bike-friendly" cities, I have to remind ceph and the other greenies that little real work is done in america on a bicycle.

This is certainly true, but to be fair most of the driving that we Americans do doesn't really count as “real work” either. Much of it could be done on bicycle or using public transportation, at least in urban areas. I lived in Portland for a good 6-7 years without a personal vehicle or a bicycle, though for most of that time I lived in the core where public transportation and just plain walking were relatively convenient.

In Portland I've seen some interesting utility bike set-ups. One I've seen somewhat regularly is a delivery bike for a local bakery chain, has a big box on the back. There were some bike taxis, not sure if they're still around. I know of one guy who does a “bike CSA,” bikes to all his little backyard plots.

But yeah, you need a truck for most real work. Here on the farm we'll deliver ~150 CSA boxes in one day, they take up a lot of room, and each box can weigh up to 15 or 20 lbs. That'd be an awful lot to load onto a Schwinn

Agent, seems like bike parts could be fairly easily stockpiled if you're really concerned about future availability or affordability. Or you could get one of these:

[pstarr]

The right way to think of fuel cost is cargo-lb * miles / gallon(or $). Even at $20/gal, you'll still be willing to get your junk to the site. You likely WILL NOT be willing to unhook the trailer, and drive the F250 another 15 miles for lunch. But that is a reasonable adaptation if you ask me; not something to be feared or worried about.

There is a lot of utility in a few gallons of tractor fuel. Employs a farmer for a day and feeds a bunch of people. There is much utility in a Chinaperson's scooter. He/she commutes for a fraction of a gallon. Not much good comes from financier driving to work on Wall Street from the suburbs in his Escalante.

The bicycle otoh, is perfectly adequate to get Bob the Backhoe Operator to the worksite. Also works great for the med-tech to get to the hospital, the secretary to get to her office, the county courthouse staff to get in to work, etc. Most people do not drag a lot of stuff with them when they travel, most of the time. Save the ICE vehicle for when you need to move you and a bunch of other stuff.

this is where it breaks down. Unfortunately the USA is one hell of a rough place to ride a bike. Partly our own fault for creating a car-dependent suburb, partially the luck of the draw. The New World didn't have to be huge, rocky, mountainous, frigid in the winter and horrid in the summer. From now on the China bike commuter will always have an advantage; his climate is benign, his cities bicycle-able, his expenses tiny compared to ours (little house, little heating/cooling bill, short commute, neighborhood services, etc.)

That said, I've been worrying more recently about how dependent bikes are on industrial tech for their maintenance; having broken several spokes and overpowered a link on my chain in the last couple weeks. I replaced the rear wheel with a stronger, higher tech type, I look at it now as a huge liability. Sure, it can take all 350lbs of me+bike+cargo even when I push it to 30mph, but if it fails, there's no way I can fix it myself. So I dunno, could I tolerate cycling if I was forced to fall back to a fixie and minimal cargo carrying ability? What would be the point then? Seems even a modestly sophisticated bicycle needs quite a bit of fussy maintenance; I don't really mind, its good to fix stuff with my hands from time to time, but shipped parts and specialty tools galore are involved.

will probably comes down to a matter of bearings. I imagine the rest can be forged pretty easily?

[pstarr]

Around the world (but probably more so here in the US) everyday life, personal hopes/dreams, and business planning is becoming dependent on an unsustainable model. It is only a matter of time before the internet runs out of money and energy. I worry that all pretty moving pictures will stop some day as the cost to support this party exceeds our ability to pay for it. Only a matter of time.

[AgentR11]

Agent, seems like bike parts could be fairly easily stockpiled if you're really concerned about future availability or affordability.

I think my survival odds at 30mph on a wooden bike would be pretty slim.
And... well, you see.. I have this red->green GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO fetish that is absolutely overpowering.

But yeah on parts, that's what I generally have done. The spokes to the new wheel look a tad more complicated. So I'm basically having this horrible tug-o-war in my head between AR15 and some expensive bike shop maintenance gizmos (truing stand, etc..). Whats really sad, is I have a bike shop within a mile of my house, but the guy is so lazy he won't get off his butt to do a 5 minute truing job on a wheel for cash money, walk in.... asked me to leave the bike till tomorrow. *not*. If he weren't so lazy, he could tag me for $5-$10 margin quickies over and over.

[jupiters_release]

the price of oil is rising again. It did crash in 2008 going from $145 down to $30, but its now back up to about $100 again. Ouch. Its going up but the economy isn't growing, and that's not a good sign...

but everyone in the oil industry says it takes about $70 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground, so this isn't good.

If a barrel of oil is selling for $100 and it takes $70 to produce that barrel, that is the same as saying it takes 70% of a barrel to produce a 100% of a barrel. That is an EROEI around 1.4 to 1.0 !!!

That can't be true! Can it?

Someone please confirm this is way off. A margin this low is like a frog near boiling temp in the pot!!

[ObiWan]

the price of oil is rising again. It did crash in 2008 going from $145 down to $30, but its now back up to about $100 again. Ouch. Its going up but the economy isn't growing, and that's not a good sign...

but everyone in the oil industry says it takes about $70 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground, so this isn't good.

If a barrel of oil is selling for $100 and it takes $70 to produce that barrel, that is the same as saying it takes 70% of a barrel to produce a 100% of a barrel. That is an EROEI around 1.4 to 1.0 !!!

That can't be true! Can it?

It isn't true. Energy is energy, energy is not dollars.

[ObiWan]

Around the world (but probably more so here in the US) everyday life, personal hopes/dreams, and business planning is becoming dependent on an unsustainable model. It is only a matter of time before the internet runs out of money and energy. I worry that all pretty moving pictures will stop some day as the cost to support this party exceeds our ability to pay for it. Only a matter of time.

The solar system is an unsustainable model. It is only a matter of time before peak hydrogen is attained, the sun begins to expand and the planet is incinerated.

Humanity is having a good run, we might as well enjoy it. Certainly the planet won't survive in any case.

[jupiters_release]

the price of oil is rising again. It did crash in 2008 going from $145 down to $30, but its now back up to about $100 again. Ouch. Its going up but the economy isn't growing, and that's not a good sign...

but everyone in the oil industry says it takes about $70 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground, so this isn't good.

If a barrel of oil is selling for $100 and it takes $70 to produce that barrel, that is the same as saying it takes 70% of a barrel to produce a 100% of a barrel. That is an EROEI around 1.4 to 1.0 !!!

That can't be true! Can it?

It isn't true. Energy is energy, energy is not dollars.

Well, it's disturbing nonetheless that it takes 70% of the current value of a barrel to bring it to market. How long has it costed $70/barrel to produce? How could the price of oil dipped down to $30 a few years ago then?

[vision-master]

No cars needed.....

[radon]

If a barrel of oil is selling for $100 and it takes $70 to produce that barrel, that is the same as saying it takes 70% of a barrel to produce a 100% of a barrel. That is an EROEI around 1.4 to 1.0 !!!

At the end of 1990s an oil barrel was selling at $8 at some point, and this was lower than the production cost, at least in some parts of the world.

Anyway, EROEI in itself is not as important as the absolute amount of the net energy produced. When oil was discovered EROEI stood at 300:1 and declined ever since, yet the industrial, scientific and cultural progress did not peak at the moment of the oil discovery (point of maximum EROEI) - to the contrary, it has been continuously accelerating since then.

Hypothetically, we can run BAU at 1.1 or 1.001 EROEI as long as we can scale up the absolute net energy production to the required degree, and ensure that the environment is not irrecoverably damaged. I am not saying that this is achievable, but still it is worth noting that there are two drivers in the equation:

Net Energy Produced= (EROEI -1) * Energy Invested

[davep]

EROEI can be lower than one so long as energy invested is cheaper than the energy returned.

[ObiWan]

It isn't true. Energy is energy, energy is not dollars.

Well, it's disturbing nonetheless that it takes 70% of the current value of a barrel to bring it to market. How long has it costed $70/barrel to produce? How could the price of oil dipped down to $30 a few years ago then?

Why does it matter? There is enough profit involved for everyone to get a slice of the pie, and to be happy about it. The price of crude is going up, such is the new reality. Fortunately, the activity itself is highly valuable in terms of economic activity.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industrie ... 52053236/1

[The Practician]

Agent, the fundamental technology behind derailleur gears is much simpler and cheaper to maintain than the finicky Rapid-fire SIS stuff you have on your bike right now. When the SHTF, it is pretty much just a matter of throwing some friction shifters on there, which will work fine with whatever rear wheel and freewheel combo is available.

[Revi]

I don't think there will be many bicycles around. The reason I say this is that almost nobody over 12 who has a job rides one for anything but exercise in the USA. Most of the bikes that were around have been turned into scrap metal. About 10 years you could pick up bikes for nothing, but now they have value, even if it's just a few cents per pound. I saw a bunch in the back of a truck headed to the scrap yard last week.

[The Practician]

I don't think there will be many bicycles around. The reason I say this is that almost nobody over 12 who has a job rides one for anything but exercise in the USA.

This is peak oil we're talking about, who says they have a choice? Let me put it this way: You can't afford a car. You couldn't afford to drive it even if you could. There is no public transit. How are you going to get around? I expect informal "public" transportation networks involving re-purposed minivans and the like are bound to be popular choices, but a bicycle starts to look pretty reasonable at that point too.
I'm not saying any sort of transition is going to be quick or that it is going to look anything like the gentrified yuppie version of urban cycling we have in North America today, But I don't really see how the fact that nobody rides a bike for anything but exercise these days means that won't change when current arrangements are no longer possible.

[AgentR11]

I don't think there will be many bicycles around. The reason I say this is that almost nobody over 12 who has a job rides one for anything but exercise in the USA.

My odometer for this fall shows ~300 miles; no "exercise rides", maybe 5 miles or so of tuning/fixing; the rest are all direct replacements of necessary vehicle travel. And I most certainly am over 12, and haven't been unemployed since I started working after college.

Most of the bikes that were around have been turned into scrap metal. About 10 years you could pick up bikes for nothing, but now they have value, even if it's just a few cents per pound. I saw a bunch in the back of a truck headed to the scrap yard last week.

A *lot* of the bikes in the US are very low end, and fail the first time an adult put serious force into them. I remember the first adult bike I had, my dad had one and never road it, passed it on to me. First time I opened up on it, the chainring (front gear thing) folded like cardboard. (ripped up 2&3 in front, fortunately the inner ring was more or less intact so I could limp home.) Bike might have had 20 miles on it when it was scrapped. Replaced it with a bike shop Jamis, which survived a few thousand miles of hard city street riding. My current Cannondale replaced it, and is almost finished evolving into a serious vehicle.

[vision-master]

Huffy rules.......

[AgentR11]

When the SHTF, it is pretty much just a matter of throwing some friction shifters on there, which will work fine with whatever rear wheel and freewheel combo is available.

Work fine.. means not beating cars off the line.... And i like beating cars off the line.
Sad panda.
Of course... SHTF... maybe no cars? Those nasty ole roadies might show up though, I can't beat them off the line.

My last experience with a freewheel setup was walking into a bike shop with the axle, "I broke the axle, can it be replaced"... "you didn't break the axle.." ... "here"... "no sh**".