I just had the hope knocked out of me

[ian807]

Europe also has a vast train system we don't have here in the states. That makes a big difference. If gas gets to $7 gallon in the US it would be even higher in europe; it would affect them too. Greece is already rioting. Italy has started some riots and austerity aka depression hasn't even set in. So I don't see europe as an example for success.

European countries are smaller and more localized (i.e. walkable cities, bike paths, trains, etc.) They'll do better with transportation, post oil, than the USA.

[cephalotus]

$7/gallon- It would crush us.

It hasn't crushed Germany or Switzerland.

They're accustomed to it. A sudden rise to $7 here would be very disruptive.

The US will get used to it, too.

On one hand people are dreaming about 6,5 billion people starving to death, they believe in some medieval age small scale farming, but they can not imagine living normal lives at 7US$/gal.

Even the US will also get used to 20US$/gal and the price will not go further for longer periods (in todays US$ price), because at this level you can make synthetic gasoline or methane from wind energy or nuclear reactors, photovoltaic power plants or whatever you prefer, water and CO2 from the air...

they only thing would be a fast crah, to fast to develop that technologies. I doubt that this will happen. We already have all that technology (Audi is building a 6,5 MW prototype of a wind power to methane facility to power their upcoming CNG vehicles)

http://www.audi-balanced-mobility.com/en/index.html

[ObiWan]

At $7/gallon the impact on the average US household would be an additional cost of $5k/yr or 10% of median income, at $20/gal transportation would be 50% of the average budget.

Well, that might be the impact if the average household didn't wake up in the morning screaming "holy crap batman! We can't afford this nonsense, Johnny, you are walking to school buddy!!"

I am of the mind that if the surrender monkeys in Europe can handle it, certainly American exceptionalism can as well, if not do them one (or ten) better.

[Anvil]

There was never any hope. It was all a miss portrayal of the human greed running the economy designed to benefit the few.

[Loki]

On one hand people are dreaming about 6,5 billion people starving to death, they believe in some medieval age small scale farming, but they can not imagine living normal lives at 7US$/gal.

Even the US will also get used to 20US$/gal

We won't “get used” to $20/gal gas. We'll be commuting in ox carts long before that.

$7/gal is doable, at a lower level of economic activity (i.e., Great Depression II).

It's the unexpected spikes that I've come to worry about. I thought for sure we'd see $5/gal gas this year, but it didn't happen. Maybe next year

Can't predict year to year what gas prices will be these days. One reason I got a little 250cc motorcycle. Gasoline is not a major expense for me, but figured it wouldn't hurt to get a very fuel-efficient vehicle just in case we see a massive price spike. Plus it's easy to work on, inexpensive to keep, and most importantly, fun as hell to ride.

synthetic gasoline or methane from wind energy or nuclear reactors, photovoltaic power plants or whatever you prefer, water and CO2 from the air...

These are unlikely solutions.

More likely is that we'll just get poorer and poorer. Won't matter what gas prices are if we can't afford them. Gasoline was plentiful in 1930s America, but lots of folks couldn't afford to buy it.

[Pretorian]

$7/gallon- It would crush us.

It hasn't crushed Germany or Switzerland.

They're accustomed to it. A sudden rise to $7 here would be very disruptive.

The US will get used to it, too.

Well Germany has hundreds of years worth of infrastructure that often makes car to be useless in many places; your poor does not live in 200 sq m houses 40 km away from their jobs.

On one hand people are dreaming about 6,5 billion people starving to death, they believe in some medieval age small scale farming, but they can not imagine living normal lives at 7US$/gal.

It will mean that people will have to give up a lot , a lot more than a German would if the price went to $14 a gallon . They wouldn't call it " normal", look at Greece, Spain, Cyprus. People like to be taken care of.

[Pretorian]

Besides, a lot of that $7 price in Germany goes to pay for something Americans have to pay cahs for.

[Mesuge]

The difference is the higher taxes paid on fuel offset taxes elsewhere within the country's economy - zero sum. As well, countries with large export economies like Germany are importing money by exporting Beemers to places like the US with cheaper fuel, effectively making a profit on our spendthrift ways. Unfortunately not everyone can be an exporter.

Hm, you did not include the little proviso that German exports have been made possible mainly in the past decade or two by incuring giant debt and loan guarantees on various shadow, interbank and derivative markets, either hidden in some obscure footnoted ECB instruments or german banks and insurers. This "exports uber alles" be it often/increasingly bound to shitty non credit worth customers strategy is THE reason Germans now had to put everything on the single remaining card of dragging the rest of the Europe into fiscal union kicking and screaming. However, the PIIGS debt situation is unravelling way faster than they can come up with actually functioning and/or detailed fiscal union proposal. This situation will likely explode sooner or later (Q4 2011 - Q1/Q2 2012).

Perhaps, I wouldn't write this before but since the end of summer I've seen a couple of German top plutocrats during various TV debates speaking/body language on the debt crises and it's clearly showing that same "ostfront blitzkrieg" mega arrogancy yet again..

To simply put it, yep, better industry, better infrustructure, more educated and talented workforce and middle management, but to no effect in the final equation. The political class will yet again throw the germans under the bus in the "last fight" with perhaps less classy but more "smarty" world market speculators.

The larger Central Europe is pregnant to explode yet again, the German and Austrian bank/insurance houses are about to trigger the tsunami event on global scale.

[cephalotus]

We won't “get used” to $20/gal gas. We'll be commuting in ox carts long before that.

$7/gal is doable, at a lower level of economic activity (i.e., Great Depression II).
.

What about Portland?

Could this be an example for other US cities?

http://www.popsci.com/environment/artic ... ies?page=1

http://www.travelwritersmagazine.com/Tr ... tland.html

[Loki]

What about Portland?

Could this be an example for other US cities?

http://www.popsci.com/environment/artic ... ies?page=1

http://www.travelwritersmagazine.com/Tr ... tland.html

Having lived in Portland for ~15 years, I think most of the hype about the city is just that: hype. Most of what the magazine writers gush about is limited to the downtown area and the inner eastside. Funny how they never mention the low-rent strip malls and strung-out prostitutes on 82nd Avenue.

Portland is better situated than most US cities, but it's still very much an American city. “Portland” is actually a conglomeration of numerous different sprawling cities (Portland proper, Beaverton, Gresham, Vancouver, Hillsboro, Tualatin, Tigard, etc.), the impact of high gas prices will depend on where in the metro area you live. The guy living in Camas and commuting 40 miles each way in his Yukon to his job in Tualatin will be screwed. The guy living in the inner eastside of Portland and riding his bike to work will fare much better.

Public transportation in Portland is OK, but the transit agency has had some serious financial troubles the last few years, jacking up fares and reducing services (e.g., they just canceled the “fareless” zone downtown where you used to be able to ride for free). Taking the bus can be painfully slow if you need to go someplace other than downtown.

I suppose Portland is more “bike friendly” than most US cities, but again, this is limited to the inner core for the most part, and the bike infrastructure is still pretty crappy even there (I used to bike commute in this area, you have to be willing to risk life and limb).

[radon]

More likely is that we'll just get poorer and poorer. Won't matter what gas prices are if we can't afford them. Gasoline was plentiful in 1930s America, but lots of folks couldn't afford to buy it.

Isn't it a paradox - gasoline was plentiful, EROI was sky high, but folks were poor.

Now the gasoline supply is becoming tight, EROI diminishes, but folks are better off and can afford to buy gasoline.

[pstarr]

While we are on the subject of "bike-friendly" cities, I have to remind ceph and the other greenies that little real work is done in america on a bicycle. Can you imagine dragging around a sheet of plywood, a compressor, and a nail gun behind a bike? While trying to outrace an approaching hurricane? To board up a house? I can't.

It seems to be a regular phenomena here at PO.com that folks who have easy solutions to peak oil have easy lives. It's one thing to claim that biochar, permaculture, or EV's will save us and a very different issue if you are a farmer, truck driver, or handyman.

[pstarr]

More likely is that we'll just get poorer and poorer. Won't matter what gas prices are if we can't afford them. Gasoline was plentiful in 1930s America, but lots of folks couldn't afford to buy it.

Isn't it a paradox - gasoline was plentiful, EROI was sky high, but folks were poor.

Now the gasoline supply is becoming tight, EROI diminishes, but folks are better off and can afford to buy gasoline.

Actually there were similarities then and now. The Great Depression was caused at least in part, by the new availability of mechanized oil-fueled farm equipment. Technologies developed for WWI tanks and heavy fighting machinery helped mechanize farm, resource extraction, heavy industry. Among other things it reduced the percent of Americans in agriculture (I believe it was actually 98% of the labor force at the time). We have recently gone through something similar--now it is electricity and computers putting office workers out on the streets.

[AgentR11]

While we are on the subject of "bike-friendly" cities, I have to remind ceph and the other greenies that little real work is done in america on a bicycle. Can you imagine dragging around a sheet of plywood, a compressor, and a nail gun behind a bike? While trying to outrace an approaching hurricane? To board up a house? I can't.

While that is true, something you leave out, is that those loads justify much higher transportation budgets than they currently consume. If fuel became very, very expensive, it might make people think twice about dragging a 2 ton piece of metal and plastic, five miles, to get a tomato. On the other hand, even at that very, very expensive point, loading up the F250 and its enclosed trailer with construction supplies and tools, and driving to the work site is still quite economical. The right way to think of fuel cost is cargo-lb * miles / gallon(or $). Even at $20/gal, you'll still be willing to get your junk to the site. You likely WILL NOT be willing to unhook the trailer, and drive the F250 another 15 miles for lunch. But that is a reasonable adaptation if you ask me; not something to be feared or worried about.

The bicycle otoh, is perfectly adequate to get Bob the Backhoe Operator to the worksite. Also works great for the med-tech to get to the hospital, the secretary to get to her office, the county courthouse staff to get in to work, etc. Most people do not drag a lot of stuff with them when they travel, most of the time. Save the ICE vehicle for when you need to move you and a bunch of other stuff.

That said, I've been worrying more recently about how dependent bikes are on industrial tech for their maintenance; having broken several spokes and overpowered a link on my chain in the last couple weeks. I replaced the rear wheel with a stronger, higher tech type, I look at it now as a huge liability. Sure, it can take all 350lbs of me+bike+cargo even when I push it to 30mph, but if it fails, there's no way I can fix it myself. So I dunno, could I tolerate cycling if I was forced to fall back to a fixie and minimal cargo carrying ability? What would be the point then? Seems even a modestly sophisticated bicycle needs quite a bit of fussy maintenance; I don't really mind, its good to fix stuff with my hands from time to time, but shipped parts and specialty tools galore are involved.

[vision-master]

Just get a scooter.

[AgentR11]

Just get a scooter.

A lot of people are, and more will, as long as you don't need to carry much, they are quite effective. However, I find great sport in doing stuff without relying on motors. Think of it as a derivative of Wilderness Area rules for urban/ex-urban psychopaths. So, I'll be sticking with the bicycle, and its pile of fiddly tools and oddball, special order, parts.

[Tanada]

Ancient construction moved to ancient-archetecture-t63815-15.html

[Loki]

While we are on the subject of "bike-friendly" cities, I have to remind ceph and the other greenies that little real work is done in america on a bicycle.

This is certainly true, but to be fair most of the driving that we Americans do doesn't really count as “real work” either. Much of it could be done on bicycle or using public transportation, at least in urban areas. I lived in Portland for a good 6-7 years without a personal vehicle or a bicycle, though for most of that time I lived in the core where public transportation and just plain walking were relatively convenient.

In Portland I've seen some interesting utility bike set-ups. One I've seen somewhat regularly is a delivery bike for a local bakery chain, has a big box on the back. There were some bike taxis, not sure if they're still around. I know of one guy who does a “bike CSA,” bikes to all his little backyard plots.

But yeah, you need a truck for most real work. Here on the farm we'll deliver ~150 CSA boxes in one day, they take up a lot of room, and each box can weigh up to 15 or 20 lbs. That'd be an awful lot to load onto a Schwinn

Agent, seems like bike parts could be fairly easily stockpiled if you're really concerned about future availability or affordability. Or you could get one of these:

[pstarr]

The right way to think of fuel cost is cargo-lb * miles / gallon(or $). Even at $20/gal, you'll still be willing to get your junk to the site. You likely WILL NOT be willing to unhook the trailer, and drive the F250 another 15 miles for lunch. But that is a reasonable adaptation if you ask me; not something to be feared or worried about.

There is a lot of utility in a few gallons of tractor fuel. Employs a farmer for a day and feeds a bunch of people. There is much utility in a Chinaperson's scooter. He/she commutes for a fraction of a gallon. Not much good comes from financier driving to work on Wall Street from the suburbs in his Escalante.

The bicycle otoh, is perfectly adequate to get Bob the Backhoe Operator to the worksite. Also works great for the med-tech to get to the hospital, the secretary to get to her office, the county courthouse staff to get in to work, etc. Most people do not drag a lot of stuff with them when they travel, most of the time. Save the ICE vehicle for when you need to move you and a bunch of other stuff.

this is where it breaks down. Unfortunately the USA is one hell of a rough place to ride a bike. Partly our own fault for creating a car-dependent suburb, partially the luck of the draw. The New World didn't have to be huge, rocky, mountainous, frigid in the winter and horrid in the summer. From now on the China bike commuter will always have an advantage; his climate is benign, his cities bicycle-able, his expenses tiny compared to ours (little house, little heating/cooling bill, short commute, neighborhood services, etc.)

That said, I've been worrying more recently about how dependent bikes are on industrial tech for their maintenance; having broken several spokes and overpowered a link on my chain in the last couple weeks. I replaced the rear wheel with a stronger, higher tech type, I look at it now as a huge liability. Sure, it can take all 350lbs of me+bike+cargo even when I push it to 30mph, but if it fails, there's no way I can fix it myself. So I dunno, could I tolerate cycling if I was forced to fall back to a fixie and minimal cargo carrying ability? What would be the point then? Seems even a modestly sophisticated bicycle needs quite a bit of fussy maintenance; I don't really mind, its good to fix stuff with my hands from time to time, but shipped parts and specialty tools galore are involved.

will probably comes down to a matter of bearings. I imagine the rest can be forged pretty easily?

[pstarr]

Around the world (but probably more so here in the US) everyday life, personal hopes/dreams, and business planning is becoming dependent on an unsustainable model. It is only a matter of time before the internet runs out of money and energy. I worry that all pretty moving pictures will stop some day as the cost to support this party exceeds our ability to pay for it. Only a matter of time.