I just had the hope knocked out of me

[ColossalContrarian]

Every time the Dudes in the big trucks pass me on the highway when I'm doing 80mph in my nissan altima I feel the hope being knocked out of me... it happens daily.... I mean every few hours.... All I can figure is that everyone on the highway except for me is rich...

[Serial_Worrier]

I refuse to believe that Earth will not keep providing us with it's plentiful abundance. Cheap water, air, fossil fuels, uranium and soil!

[Serial_Worrier]

Yes I'd like to see all the volunteers for self wisdom teeth extraction.

[cephalotus]

I accept that now, though, bc we can never be independent of oil. Wind and Solar will never replace it. It's taken years for me to realize this is a transportation fuel crisis. Our tractor trailer trucks will never be solar or wind powered.

You can use oil form biomass or methane made from electricity. The technology is already here.

Our ships will never again be wind powered.

You can use electric powered trains instead, when possible. (i.e. from China to Europe)
Ships can also run on biomass, coal, liquid methane, liquid hydrogen, additional wind power (skysail) and in some cases also on nuclear power.

Peak oil is a commuters problem and a problem for those burning 3000l of oil per year for heating the house and it is a problem for airlines. It is NOT a problem for trucks, tractors or ships in general... Those can easily pay for oil even at 1.000US$/barrel.

So, the reality is we fight in the ME because that's all we can do, fight for the little that's left, make sure we get it and not our enemies. Despite what I may want to happen, the reality is that people will fight and kill for limited resources.

Currently this is the American way but it doesn't work so well, does it. What have you paid for the Irak war and what have you gained. For the same amount of money you could have been now the leading producer of solar power and electric cars in the world by a far margin and could sell this to China & Co. You could have millions of new jobs.
Instead you bombed Iraq into a failed state...

I fail to understand the logic behind this.

If you would have access to all of the Iraq oil, it maybe would make maybe little sense compared to the solar + e-cars + million new industry jobs scenario, but you do not even have this...

So, if countries fight for oil, what will individuals do for it as it increasingly becomes more scarce, more valuable. Fight.

Why? I do not use oil for commuting, I do not use oil for heating and for the little that is left I have no problem to pay 1.000US$/barrel. Maybe at 1.000US$/barrel price of food will increase by 20%, maybe even 30%. So what? I don't care. I already buy mostly "organic food" which is more expensive than 20-30%+ on conventional food.
At 1.000US$/barrel it would be possible to make our own synthetic oil from wind power through electrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch technologies.
(if you don't care for CO2 emissions, we will make our own oil from lignite at around 200US$/barrel, which I would also prefer against fighting for oil)

I then got caught up in the hype of NG. Former oilman Boone Pickens was leading the charge very strong back in 2008 to use NG to mitigate PO. Even said that exactly, but it never happened. Three years later, we still have 250 million cars on the road and only 114k use NG. All the the NG they pump out of the ground just gets put in storage tanks. We keep adding more to storage, decreasing prices making it less economical to drill, but all this NG doesn't get used for anything, not transportation anyway, which is the PO problem.

At 4 US$/gal oil is way to cheap to be repalaced by alternatives.

Wait for 20 US/$gal and you will soon see those alternatives become available.

...

[Pops]

Wait for 20 US/$gal and you will soon see those alternatives become available.

...

At $20/gal equivalent what difference does it make if it enables flying carpets or Mr Fusion? The current system can't run on the equivalent of $20/gallon - that's the whole point of peak oil.

Peakers say "PO causes expensive energy" and people respond "yeah but given enough money we'll find more energy" - ?

That's not a solution, that's the problem

Here at $4/gallon the economy is sputtering but you feel pretty smug that you can buy expensive food and wouldn't even notice if the price increases to $20/gallon. Your blind spot is that you think the prices rise but somehow you will still have your income. Obviously I have no idea where your income originates but it is pretty obvious that high oil prices reduce real GDP (if not the financial 3 Card Monte type) and that equates to jobs.

Interesting if not necessarily authoritative widget...

[cephalotus]

At $20/gal equivalent what difference does it make if it enables flying carpets or Mr Fusion? The current system can't run on the equivalent of $20/gallon - that's the whole point of peak oil.

I'm sure the system will look quite similar to today and not like apocalypse at 20US$/gal

Here at $4/gallon the economy is sputtering but you feel pretty smug that you can buy expensive food and wouldn't even notice if the price increases to $20/gallon. Your blind spot is that you think the prices rise but somehow you will still have your income. Obviously I have no idea where your income originates but it is pretty obvious that high oil prices reduce real GDP (if not the financial 3 Card Monte type) and that equates to jobs.

If you look at the world economies there is NO correlation between gas prices for consumers and the GDP. Some of the nations with very high gas prices have one of the highest GDP/capita.

regards...

[Pops]

If you look at the world economies there is NO correlation between gas prices for consumers and the GDP.

Don't be silly. Take a look at this:



At $7/gallon the impact on the average US household would be an additional cost of $5k/yr or 10% of median income, at $20/gal transportation would be 50% of the average budget.

You really think that would have no impact on the economy?

[vision-master]

$7/gallon- It would crush us.

[davep]

$7/gallon- It would crush us.

It hasn't crushed Germany or Switzerland.

[MD]

$7/gallon- It would crush us.

It hasn't crushed Germany or Switzerland.

They're accustomed to it. A sudden rise to $7 here would be very disruptive.

[seahorse3]

Europe also has a vast train system we don't have here in the states. That makes a big difference. If gas gets to $7 gallon in the US it would be even higher in europe; it would affect them too. Greece is already rioting. Italy has started some riots and austerity aka depression hasn't even set in. So I don't see europe as an example for success.

[Pops]

The difference is the higher taxes paid on fuel offset taxes elsewhere within the country's economy - zero sum.

As well, countries with large export economies like Germany are importing money by exporting Beemers to places like the US with cheaper fuel, effectively making a profit on our spendthrift ways. Unfortunately not everyone can be an exporter.

[AgentR11]

At $7/gallon the impact on the average US household would be an additional cost of $5k/yr or 10% of median income, at $20/gal transportation would be 50% of the average budget.

You really think that would have no impact on the economy?

Is 26,000 miles per year REALLY the family average??!?!?!??!!!!?!?!??!?!?!??!!!!!!!!!!!
(kinda horrified)

I think we did 5k this year here, and I got reimbursed for a good chunk of that!

At $7/gal the average is $9,100.. and mine will be $1,750 - reimbursement.

People need to friggin stop commuting by personal automobile. That's just nuts! Something will give before average families manage to spend $9k/yr on gas. The friendly 20%ers won't mind too much, and it'll give them something else to whine about over coffee. I wonder if this will act as yet another hard, class separation input. Hard to imagine an average secretary's family forking over $9k/yr to commute.

[Pops]

Higher density infrastructure and even more, a history and society built around mixed use communities is one of the real advantages the "old world" has on us. We have neither the infrastructure nor the social skills to live close.

We'll get 'em but we'll whine like whipped puppies.

[vision-master]

Gramps used to walk to the mines for work!

Of course lifetime employment is pretty much gone - along with the gold watches at retirement....

[ian807]

Europe also has a vast train system we don't have here in the states. That makes a big difference. If gas gets to $7 gallon in the US it would be even higher in europe; it would affect them too. Greece is already rioting. Italy has started some riots and austerity aka depression hasn't even set in. So I don't see europe as an example for success.

European countries are smaller and more localized (i.e. walkable cities, bike paths, trains, etc.) They'll do better with transportation, post oil, than the USA.

[cephalotus]

$7/gallon- It would crush us.

It hasn't crushed Germany or Switzerland.

They're accustomed to it. A sudden rise to $7 here would be very disruptive.

The US will get used to it, too.

On one hand people are dreaming about 6,5 billion people starving to death, they believe in some medieval age small scale farming, but they can not imagine living normal lives at 7US$/gal.

Even the US will also get used to 20US$/gal and the price will not go further for longer periods (in todays US$ price), because at this level you can make synthetic gasoline or methane from wind energy or nuclear reactors, photovoltaic power plants or whatever you prefer, water and CO2 from the air...

they only thing would be a fast crah, to fast to develop that technologies. I doubt that this will happen. We already have all that technology (Audi is building a 6,5 MW prototype of a wind power to methane facility to power their upcoming CNG vehicles)

http://www.audi-balanced-mobility.com/en/index.html

[ObiWan]

At $7/gallon the impact on the average US household would be an additional cost of $5k/yr or 10% of median income, at $20/gal transportation would be 50% of the average budget.

Well, that might be the impact if the average household didn't wake up in the morning screaming "holy crap batman! We can't afford this nonsense, Johnny, you are walking to school buddy!!"

I am of the mind that if the surrender monkeys in Europe can handle it, certainly American exceptionalism can as well, if not do them one (or ten) better.

[Anvil]

There was never any hope. It was all a miss portrayal of the human greed running the economy designed to benefit the few.

[Loki]

On one hand people are dreaming about 6,5 billion people starving to death, they believe in some medieval age small scale farming, but they can not imagine living normal lives at 7US$/gal.

Even the US will also get used to 20US$/gal

We won't “get used” to $20/gal gas. We'll be commuting in ox carts long before that.

$7/gal is doable, at a lower level of economic activity (i.e., Great Depression II).

It's the unexpected spikes that I've come to worry about. I thought for sure we'd see $5/gal gas this year, but it didn't happen. Maybe next year

Can't predict year to year what gas prices will be these days. One reason I got a little 250cc motorcycle. Gasoline is not a major expense for me, but figured it wouldn't hurt to get a very fuel-efficient vehicle just in case we see a massive price spike. Plus it's easy to work on, inexpensive to keep, and most importantly, fun as hell to ride.

synthetic gasoline or methane from wind energy or nuclear reactors, photovoltaic power plants or whatever you prefer, water and CO2 from the air...

These are unlikely solutions.

More likely is that we'll just get poorer and poorer. Won't matter what gas prices are if we can't afford them. Gasoline was plentiful in 1930s America, but lots of folks couldn't afford to buy it.