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I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 07:30:32

"China has widened its lead over the U.S. as the world's top auto market, with September sales shooting up by 78 percent, spurred by government calibrated tax cuts and increasing wealth of ordinary Chinese households.

Sales totaled 1.33 million vehicles last month, with passenger cars climbing 84 percent, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported. It was the seventh month that China's auto sales surpassed 1.1 million vehicles.

Sales in smaller cities have been booming as automakers rush to woo first-time car buyers. Those trends have global automakers looking to the world's most populous nation to drive revenues as demand in other markets remains sluggish.

China now leads the world in auto sales, with 9.66 million vehicles selling over the first nine months of the year, up 34 percent from the same period last year. The U.S. ranks second, with January-September sales at about 7.8 million cars and light trucks, according to Autodata Corp."

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001 ... 82881.html

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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby watercut » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 09:14:11

As Ross Perot would say I hear "another" big sucking sound. The first one was our jobs and now our oil and other natural resources. This is not going to turn out well folks!! I hope you are prepared.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby Leanan » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 09:18:14

China's stats are very dicey. They count their products as a "sale" when they leave the factory, not when they are actually sold. (They are also offering financial incentives to buy cars, just as the US did.)

Curiously, even though "sales" are up, gasoline consumption is down 8% over last year. Funny, huh?
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 09:24:21

Ahhh soooo!
The brilliant thing about Asia is that it's even more full of crap than the west! people here will ride a pushbike 10 miles to work on a rice farm while sharing a grass shack with 10 relatives who have a flash car parked out front. If they can afford to drive it once a week the status gained is worth every yuan/ peso/ ringgit/ rupiah/ baht/ or dollar. The car is an icon in Asia not a necessity the way it is seen in the west.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby WildRose » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 11:09:13

SeaGypsy wrote:The car is an icon in Asia not a necessity the way it is seen in the west.


Well, I predict that will change with the younger generation, as long as they have the income for it. Getting a post-secondary education is something the young people in China work hard for these days (it's harder for them to get into university because grade school is tougher there than it is here in North America, but once they're in university they do really well, at least that's how it was explained to me). So, I predict as long as they can earn a good living, they'll buy cars.

When I was in China last year, I was amazed at the numbers of vehicles on the roads in the major cities I visited. Rush-hour in Beijing is like nothing I'd ever experienced before. Shanghai is thoroughly modern with lots of vehicles but their roadway system is better than Beijing's in that they have lots of overpasses, so traffic has a much faster flow. I'm guessing that maybe the smaller cities don't have as many car-owners as the large ones, and I'm sure the people in the rural areas don't have as many.

Leanan, you mentioned gasoline sales being down 8% - is that in China or worldwide?

I noticed that in the article you provided, SeaGypsy, it says, "cars with engines smaller than 1.6 L accounted for 70% of passenger car sales", so the rates of gasoline consumption may rise more slowly there given that the average driver's mileage will be so much better than most of the drivers in the US or Canada, for example.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby crude_intentions » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 11:13:24

Savings + Production = Prosperity

Of course nothing changes the fact that all those cars are going to go flying off hubbert's curve in the end. :lol:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby Arthur75 » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 11:33:36

What is a bit sadening about China is that they had the opportunity of leapfrogging many mistakes like the car for everybody concept, but they end up with 7 freeway rings around Beijing, bikes forbidden on some road where they were the majority, 150 airports in construction or something (or planned)
They do also build a lot rail lines for instance, but still ...
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby Arthur75 » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 11:38:04

dup
Last edited by Arthur75 on Wed 14 Oct 2009, 11:58:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby WildRose » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 11:40:57

crude_intentions wrote:Savings + Production = Prosperity

Of course nothing changes the fact that all those cars are going to go flying off hubbert's curve in the end. :lol:


Yep, nothing will change that outcome, except for convincing them (and us) that taking public transportation, walking and biking
is the way of the future, and I know any mention of that where I live goes over like a lead balloon.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 12:42:34

Yeah but can they get 0% government funded loans like US or do they have to pay in cash?
People first, then things, then dollars.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby americandream » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 15:00:07

The thing to remember in all of this is the spread of American style consumerism to the planet's outstanding 5 billion. I distinguish between European lite capitalism and more aggressive British/American version. I believe the latter will prevail and dominate the planet for being more creative, accounting wise. Anyway, if you're doomerish now, wait till you see whats in store for this planet.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 16:13:12

watercut wrote:This is not going to turn out well folks!!


This is going to turn out horribly for China ... with escalating dependence on fossil-fuels and massive amounts of resources wasted on oil-dependent infrastructures.

I hope the Chinese don't also fall for McMansions, fastfood drive-thru's, and major-league sports.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby americandream » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 17:34:06

Who says they haven't already as have all the world who are only held back because they can't have it (just yet), or don't quite know how to get it (for the moment). America is what happens when greed runs wild on virgin territory. Then its turned into a business and outsourced and is nicely bedding in, thank you.

DoomWarrior wrote:
watercut wrote:This is not going to turn out well folks!!


This is going to turn out horribly for China ... with escalating dependence on fossil-fuels and massive amounts of resources wasted on oil-dependent infrastructures.

I hope the Chinese don't also fall for McMansions, fastfood drive-thru's, and major-league sports.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby americandream » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 17:37:49

They've only just abandoned the bike! 30 years ago, Beijing was notorious for its bike jams. Google it.

WildRose wrote:
crude_intentions wrote:Savings + Production = Prosperity

Of course nothing changes the fact that all those cars are going to go flying off hubbert's curve in the end. :lol:


Yep, nothing will change that outcome, except for convincing them (and us) that taking public transportation, walking and biking
is the way of the future, and I know any mention of that where I live goes over like a lead balloon.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby mattduke » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 19:53:25

Once the multi-decade past-peak US' oil consumption comes to a grinding halt after the dollar crash, China will be able to increase it's oil consumption for many years, even despite the fact that global output will fall.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby americandream » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 20:29:25

Not going to happen. Factory China cannot survive without financial alchemist America and Britain to a lesser extent. The G20 will move these two anglo-saxon nerve centres of financial wizardry deeper into a financial services economy with manufacturing and outsourceable fringe services continuing their drift East. Guaranteed.

Doom is not about to happen - yet, not for a few decades at least. Oh, that other new bubble in the blowing - cleantech. Keep an eye on that one. Loads of service and manufacturing opportunities in there.

mattduke wrote:Once the multi-decade past-peak US' oil consumption comes to a grinding halt after the dollar crash, China will be able to increase it's oil consumption for many years, even despite the fact that global output will fall.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 20:46:50

Oil went up $5 this week. I think that's right off the back of stories like this coming out of China. The next big price strike could come way before the USA is ready to cope with it.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby americandream » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 21:21:35

The rich in China, the West and the rest of the world will enjoy the luxury of expensive motoring for a while to come. The rest of us will be relegated to less energy demanding modes of mobility (bus, train, small two-seaters, concept cars, bikes, legs) at some point soon (it's good for the environment) and so on and so forth.

This is less about America these days and more about those with the wherewithal maintaining their standard of living. Detroit was deliberately taken out. The next in line are the Euros and Japs (other than top end motoring) as the manufacture of low end small cars (cars for the masses) moves East to China and India (Chinese and Indian subsidiaries of Western auto manufacturers, joint ventures, etc.)

Envision a time when Americas are either in financial services, self employed, retail, tourism or slavery with a few home industries thrown in such as prostitution and crime.

SeaGypsy wrote:Oil went up $5 this week. I think that's right off the back of stories like this coming out of China. The next big price strike could come way before the USA is ready to cope with it.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 23:00:05

americandream wrote:Not going to happen. Factory China cannot survive without financial alchemist America and Britain to a lesser extent. The G20 will move these two anglo-saxon nerve centres of financial wizardry deeper into a financial services economy with manufacturing and outsourceable fringe services continuing their drift East. Guaranteed.

Doom is not about to happen - yet, not for a few decades at least. Oh, that other new bubble in the blowing - cleantech. Keep an eye on that one. Loads of service and manufacturing opportunities in there.

mattduke wrote:Once the multi-decade past-peak US' oil consumption comes to a grinding halt after the dollar crash, China will be able to increase it's oil consumption for many years, even despite the fact that global output will fall.


I think you may be overestimating nationalistic persuations here. The key alchemists may well remain British and American for the forseeable future but they are people not nations.

I know of several people personally who have taken 6 month to 2 year contracts in China straight out of Uni in Australia; being hired to set up and manage factories in direct competition with those industries back home. Others have been headhunted from Australian, British and American firms as well as other industrialists. The same thing is happening in financial services lately.
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Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby americandream » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 01:15:13

This has nothing to do with nationalism. How should I explain it. The capitalist system as we know it has its origins in Britain. It advantageously adapted to the American colony as a consequence of America's historical and cultural roots. In other words, America had an advantage in assimilating British capitalism simply because of its of its cultural connection with Britain. This tie remains to this day despite America's so called republican constitution.

In contrast, in modernising, China is adopting a foreign cultural paradigm, Britain's and America's. Not Germany's, not France's, but Britain's specifically, and by association its child, America. China in other words has to acquire not merely Britains industrial prowess but its financial ability to be an equal competitor.

No other non-anglo nation has quite made this transition hence the tensions in Europe between the Franco-German bloc and Britain/US. The former lacks the vigour of the latter for the simple reason that its development is primarily industrial and lacks the vigour of anglo-saxon commercialism. It resents Anglo-American full spectrum dominance of capitalism I often chuckle when I hear grand notions of the likes of the Iranians, or Chinese or Russians supplanting the America/Britain domination of global capital. They wouldn't know what to do with it were it handed to them on a plate.

SeaGypsy wrote:
americandream wrote:Not going to happen. Factory China cannot survive without financial alchemist America and Britain to a lesser extent. The G20 will move these two anglo-saxon nerve centres of financial wizardry deeper into a financial services economy with manufacturing and outsourceable fringe services continuing their drift East. Guaranteed.

Doom is not about to happen - yet, not for a few decades at least. Oh, that other new bubble in the blowing - cleantech. Keep an eye on that one. Loads of service and manufacturing opportunities in there.

mattduke wrote:Once the multi-decade past-peak US' oil consumption comes to a grinding halt after the dollar crash, China will be able to increase it's oil consumption for many years, even despite the fact that global output will fall.


I think you may be overestimating nationalistic persuations here. The key alchemists may well remain British and American for the forseeable future but they are people not nations.

I know of several people personally who have taken 6 month to 2 year contracts in China straight out of Uni in Australia; being hired to set up and manage factories in direct competition with those industries back home. Others have been headhunted from Australian, British and American firms as well as other industrialists. The same thing is happening in financial services lately.
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