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I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 15:27:12

As Donlan points out there's more then enough exported oil to meet any increase in Chinese consumption. According to the EIA about 43 million bopd are exported. China produces about 4 million bopd and consumes around 10 million bopd. So they are currently importing only about 14% of the oil in the market place. Just 10 years ago China was importing less than 5% of global oil exports. If (and granted it's a big IF) China picks up another 9% increase in the next 10 years they'll import an additional 4 million bopd. Might be less... might be more. All depends on the ability of the other oil importers to compete with China.

Again what's important for any oil importer isn't global PO but how much of the available oil exports they can acquire.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 15:37:10

And about China's "obsession" with autos: I couldn't find any reliable stats but from my limited exposure the great demand for vehicles was for commerce and not commuting to a job or for pleasure. As I said, without one exception, every young Chinese lad I spoke to was emphatic about needing wheels to conduct business. And conducting business was key to getting a wife. Commuting via their own vehicle to a job working for someone else had no appeal from what I gathered from my conversations. Saving money to buy a vehicle was synonymous with saving money to start a business.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 18:18:20

ROCKMAN wrote:And about China's "obsession" with autos: I couldn't find any reliable stats but from my limited exposure the great demand for vehicles was for commerce and not commuting to a job or for pleasure. As I said, without one exception, every young Chinese lad I spoke to was emphatic about needing wheels to conduct business. And conducting business was key to getting a wife. Commuting via their own vehicle to a job working for someone else had no appeal from what I gathered from my conversations. Saving money to buy a vehicle was synonymous with saving money to start a business.

The problem is the Chinese are trying to pursue the American Dream, but the American Dream is only possible for Americans, because there is only enough oil in the world for one country as oil-hungry as the USA. And that one country is the one and only USA. There is no way there can be two countries in the world who uses as much oil as the USA. There simply isn't enough oil in the ground, and I would imagine China's economy will crash within the next ten years because of oil shortages.

Becoming oil dependent in an era when oil is becoming scarcer and scarcer is not a wise idea.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 18:57:13

Desu,

Here's where China has been getting their oil.


Image

And as Europe continues toward a depression, China will suck it up.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:02:29

MonteQuest wrote:Desu,

Here's where China has been getting their oil.
Image

Image

And as Europe continues toward a depression, China will suck it up.

Yeah but China will eventually suck all of it dry because oil is a nonrenewable resource. China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:10:17

A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:14:56


If the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:17:24

DesuMaiden wrote: China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.


Oil shortage? Don't think so. There is still a lot of oil in those economies listed. China will consume what they don't. It's debt and deflation that could soon bring the global economy down.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:19:05

DesuMaiden wrote:If the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?


You suggest imposing sanctions on China? :roll:
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:28:53

MonteQuest wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:If the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?


You suggest imposing sanctions on China? :roll:

No because I'm visiting China in another couple of days and the last thing I want is an oil shortage in the country.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 20:15:15

DesuMaiden wrote:Yeah but China will eventually suck all of it dry because oil is a nonrenewable resource. China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.
I don't agree. Each person in the US consumes around 22 barrels of oil a year. Each person in China consumes around 3 barrels. Now lets say global production of oil stops increasing next year. Oil demand turns into a zero sum game where if one person wants to consume more, someone else has to consume less. Because demand is still growing but supply isn't, oil increases in price. Now imagine some chinese worker with growing income. He can now afford to pay the extra premium for oil now demanded by the market. Further, that extra barrel of oil is very precious to him. It enables him to startup a new buisiness for the first time. With the extra money he can now afford to get married and start a family. Now contrast that to the average american. He is looking at the prices at the pump and asking himself, "Do I really need to keep my Hummer? Maybe I can make do with a Corolla. Or skip my cross country drive from now on." Bottom line, oil demand is going to fall first where it is being used least economically. That is in the US, not China:

Think this through. If you’re a North American, using 22-24 barrels of oil per year, will you scale back and use less if the price goes up? Will you negotiate your non-negotiable standard of living? Probably yes, because, after all, you’ve got a lot of room on the downside of your demand. (Look at how those poor Europeans schlep by on 10 barrels per year.)

The bottom line is that the average North American can surrender a barrel or two of oil use. The numbers show we already have! In some respects, we barely miss it.

But if you’re Indian or Chinese and using under three barrels of oil per year per capita, what will it take for you to cut back on use? The answer is that you won’t cut back, and you certainly won’t give up your barrels just because of higher oil prices.
Here’s How The Global Oil Grab Affects You

Eventually prices will rise to the point that even the Chinese start to balk. However that will be after you see oil consumption in the US fall.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 20:27:12

kublikhan wrote: Bottom line, oil demand is going to fall first where it is being used least economically. That is in the US, not China:


I concur. It is the case now, here and in Europe, along with Japan, where oil demand has fallen with high prices while consumption increased in China and India.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 21:01:58

It's not just China that one should consider but BRIC and around forty emerging markets.

It's not just oil needed to power vehicles that one looks at but oil needed to manufacture vehicles.

It's not just vehicles but appliances, electronic gadgets, and other goods and services that are part of middle class conveniences.

And it's not just oil but all sorts of resources needed to manufacture these goods and provide these services.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 03 Nov 2014, 10:50:56

Desu, I mostly agree with how you see this.
Kubli, the article you provided contained this "If you’re a North American, using 22-24 barrels of oil per year, will you scale back and use less if the price goes up? Will you negotiate your non-negotiable standard of living? Probably yes, because, after all, you’ve got a lot of room on the downside of your demand. (Look at how those poor Europeans schlep by on 10 barrels per year.)"
I would point out that the writer is wrong in presuming that Americans' quality of life would be comparable To Europeans' life if we were forced to consume less. Many Europeans live better lives than we do today. If Americans can't live as well consuming more than double the resources, they can't be expected to do better with significantly less.
Most people in Miami are delusional and/or deranged. I am surrounded by ten million delusional ignorant fools. Most large cities in the world are the same. When they get halved, they will be at each others throats, they already are, basically. We will be better off than in many places in the USA, but the ride will be rough.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 03 Nov 2014, 22:32:35

DesuMaiden wrote:There ain't going to be enough oil to sustain the Chinese economic growth. I'm sorry, but there just ain't enough oil for China.


Your writing style is a bit similar to mine, I'm not sure how I feel about that. :lol:

And I notice you do ALL CAPS sometimes, TO MAKE A POINT. And you say "ain't."

And you say "I'm sorry, but.."

All the above is stuff that I do, and I'm now realizing how annoying it is. 8O

(write however you wish Desu, but if you don't mind try to open up a bit and and maybe give folks an idea of where you're coming from. When did you learn about peak oil, etc. Add some personal touch to your writing.

So far all I've heard is that you "want to be the next Michael Ruppert," I'm not sure what that means.)

(oh, and you even do parenthesis like I do)

And, you're writing like an expert authority on something and making such declarative "I'm sorry but it just ain't that way" statements. Sweet baby Jesus, is that what I do around here too? I'm so sorry, everyone. 8O

For example: China is going to have plenty of oil for a long time to come, most peak oilers around this forum anyway are "slow crash" now. The tone of what you're posting just reminds me of LATOC "It's All Ending Tomorrow" stuff from 6 years ago.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 04 Nov 2014, 00:57:02

D - I don't want to appear to be picking on you but: "There is no way there can be two countries in the world who uses as much oil as the USA. There simply isn't enough oil in the ground." Of course there's enough exported oil to supply both US and China. Together they currently import less than 15 million bopd. There's about 45 million bopd currently being exported. Both countries could double their imports and there would till be another 15 million bopd floating around the global market place. All both countries need do is outbid the other oil importers.

But since you're new here I assume you didn't catch the numerous conversations here about the Chinese govt's efforts to secure long term rights to future oil production compared to zero efforts by the US gov't. In theory China could eventually import every bbl of oil exported on the planet. All they need do is continue doing what they have been doing for many years now: long term purchase contracts, acquiring oil reserves in the ground and then outbidding other importers for what remains. Not possible? Well, every bbl of oil China imports today used to be imported by another country...until China stepped in and pushed them aside.

You do understand that despite what many Americans think we do not have Dog given right to import what oil we need, don't you? LOL.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 04 Nov 2014, 18:17:07

ROCKMAN wrote:Well, every bbl of oil China imports today used to be imported by another country...until China stepped in and pushed them aside.


That makes me wonder about something, did global production ever increase or did it mostly peak and it's been a negligible increase? (I think it's the latter, but I get bored with oil so I don't know :lol: )

So what happened here, I guess we got more effecient in the West and then also the great recession and we slowed down and all of that is what has met Chinese demand?

And it all just washed out, perfectly? Plus, I do know US production has helped. Being #1 again in total energy -- and a lot of shale oil -- has kept global prices where they are.

Does it all just work out maybe, ok? China will need more oil, and we'll become an exporter with even more shale and Canada has all those tar sands to cook up and then there's shale all over the planet is there not, to turn to once the US' 2nd oil boom is tapped out?

You do understand that despite what many Americans think we do not have Dog given right to import what oil we need, don't you? LOL.


We actually don't have a right to tell Chinese anything and they wouldn't listen to us anyway.

We're lucky their nationalism is self-moderated and they're a responsible stability-oriented player in the world and they're not going off on us like the Russians are. :|

It's the classic "China abstains at the UN." They've got some nationalism going on but they are not Russian, Chinese actually don't rock the boat or get bellicose / macho or stick their finger in everything or mess with us all the time.

Putin's Russia makes China look like a friend, really.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 04 Nov 2014, 19:10:55

Sixstrings wrote:That makes me wonder about something, did global production ever increase or did it mostly peak and it's been a negligible increase? (I think it's the latter, but I get bored with oil so I don't know :lol: )
Oil production did increase:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... uction.png

Sixstrings wrote:So what happened here, I guess we got more effecient in the West and then also the great recession and we slowed down and all of that is what has met Chinese demand?
The developed nations cut back some, but overall world oil consumption still grew. Check out the graph Montequest posted above.

Sixstrings wrote:And it all just washed out, perfectly? Plus, I do know US production has helped. Being #1 again in total energy -- and a lot of shale oil -- has kept global prices where they are.

Does it all just work out maybe, ok?
It will always wash out. Prices will simply keep rising as long someone can afford to pay. Higher prices = more marginal oil sources can be profitably worked. Then sometimes supply increases too much or demand rises slower than expected, like today. Or demand just falls outright because the price is too high. So prices start heading back down. And some of those marginal oil producers start to squeal. If the condition persists for too long, they have to shut in production. Oil production starts to go down and surplus supply is taken off the market. Then prices start to rise again. It's what they call the "boom-bust cycle". Perfect is not exactly the word I would choose to describe the messy boom-bust cycle. However markets have a built in way of matching supply and demand.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 07 Nov 2014, 00:54:14

I am actually in China right now. There are a lot of cars on the streets. The roads are absolutely filled with cars
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Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Thu 11 Dec 2014, 07:18:31

ralfy wrote:Also, the scrapped cars might be sold to developing economies.

What can you use scrapped car parts for?
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