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I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 21:01:58

It's not just China that one should consider but BRIC and around forty emerging markets.

It's not just oil needed to power vehicles that one looks at but oil needed to manufacture vehicles.

It's not just vehicles but appliances, electronic gadgets, and other goods and services that are part of middle class conveniences.

And it's not just oil but all sorts of resources needed to manufacture these goods and provide these services.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 03 Nov 2014, 10:50:56

Desu, I mostly agree with how you see this.
Kubli, the article you provided contained this "If you’re a North American, using 22-24 barrels of oil per year, will you scale back and use less if the price goes up? Will you negotiate your non-negotiable standard of living? Probably yes, because, after all, you’ve got a lot of room on the downside of your demand. (Look at how those poor Europeans schlep by on 10 barrels per year.)"
I would point out that the writer is wrong in presuming that Americans' quality of life would be comparable To Europeans' life if we were forced to consume less. Many Europeans live better lives than we do today. If Americans can't live as well consuming more than double the resources, they can't be expected to do better with significantly less.
Most people in Miami are delusional and/or deranged. I am surrounded by ten million delusional ignorant fools. Most large cities in the world are the same. When they get halved, they will be at each others throats, they already are, basically. We will be better off than in many places in the USA, but the ride will be rough.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 03 Nov 2014, 22:32:35

DesuMaiden wrote:There ain't going to be enough oil to sustain the Chinese economic growth. I'm sorry, but there just ain't enough oil for China.


Your writing style is a bit similar to mine, I'm not sure how I feel about that. :lol:

And I notice you do ALL CAPS sometimes, TO MAKE A POINT. And you say "ain't."

And you say "I'm sorry, but.."

All the above is stuff that I do, and I'm now realizing how annoying it is. 8O

(write however you wish Desu, but if you don't mind try to open up a bit and and maybe give folks an idea of where you're coming from. When did you learn about peak oil, etc. Add some personal touch to your writing.

So far all I've heard is that you "want to be the next Michael Ruppert," I'm not sure what that means.)

(oh, and you even do parenthesis like I do)

And, you're writing like an expert authority on something and making such declarative "I'm sorry but it just ain't that way" statements. Sweet baby Jesus, is that what I do around here too? I'm so sorry, everyone. 8O

For example: China is going to have plenty of oil for a long time to come, most peak oilers around this forum anyway are "slow crash" now. The tone of what you're posting just reminds me of LATOC "It's All Ending Tomorrow" stuff from 6 years ago.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 04 Nov 2014, 00:57:02

D - I don't want to appear to be picking on you but: "There is no way there can be two countries in the world who uses as much oil as the USA. There simply isn't enough oil in the ground." Of course there's enough exported oil to supply both US and China. Together they currently import less than 15 million bopd. There's about 45 million bopd currently being exported. Both countries could double their imports and there would till be another 15 million bopd floating around the global market place. All both countries need do is outbid the other oil importers.

But since you're new here I assume you didn't catch the numerous conversations here about the Chinese govt's efforts to secure long term rights to future oil production compared to zero efforts by the US gov't. In theory China could eventually import every bbl of oil exported on the planet. All they need do is continue doing what they have been doing for many years now: long term purchase contracts, acquiring oil reserves in the ground and then outbidding other importers for what remains. Not possible? Well, every bbl of oil China imports today used to be imported by another country...until China stepped in and pushed them aside.

You do understand that despite what many Americans think we do not have Dog given right to import what oil we need, don't you? LOL.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 04 Nov 2014, 18:17:07

ROCKMAN wrote:Well, every bbl of oil China imports today used to be imported by another country...until China stepped in and pushed them aside.


That makes me wonder about something, did global production ever increase or did it mostly peak and it's been a negligible increase? (I think it's the latter, but I get bored with oil so I don't know :lol: )

So what happened here, I guess we got more effecient in the West and then also the great recession and we slowed down and all of that is what has met Chinese demand?

And it all just washed out, perfectly? Plus, I do know US production has helped. Being #1 again in total energy -- and a lot of shale oil -- has kept global prices where they are.

Does it all just work out maybe, ok? China will need more oil, and we'll become an exporter with even more shale and Canada has all those tar sands to cook up and then there's shale all over the planet is there not, to turn to once the US' 2nd oil boom is tapped out?

You do understand that despite what many Americans think we do not have Dog given right to import what oil we need, don't you? LOL.


We actually don't have a right to tell Chinese anything and they wouldn't listen to us anyway.

We're lucky their nationalism is self-moderated and they're a responsible stability-oriented player in the world and they're not going off on us like the Russians are. :|

It's the classic "China abstains at the UN." They've got some nationalism going on but they are not Russian, Chinese actually don't rock the boat or get bellicose / macho or stick their finger in everything or mess with us all the time.

Putin's Russia makes China look like a friend, really.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 04 Nov 2014, 19:10:55

Sixstrings wrote:That makes me wonder about something, did global production ever increase or did it mostly peak and it's been a negligible increase? (I think it's the latter, but I get bored with oil so I don't know :lol: )
Oil production did increase:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... uction.png

Sixstrings wrote:So what happened here, I guess we got more effecient in the West and then also the great recession and we slowed down and all of that is what has met Chinese demand?
The developed nations cut back some, but overall world oil consumption still grew. Check out the graph Montequest posted above.

Sixstrings wrote:And it all just washed out, perfectly? Plus, I do know US production has helped. Being #1 again in total energy -- and a lot of shale oil -- has kept global prices where they are.

Does it all just work out maybe, ok?
It will always wash out. Prices will simply keep rising as long someone can afford to pay. Higher prices = more marginal oil sources can be profitably worked. Then sometimes supply increases too much or demand rises slower than expected, like today. Or demand just falls outright because the price is too high. So prices start heading back down. And some of those marginal oil producers start to squeal. If the condition persists for too long, they have to shut in production. Oil production starts to go down and surplus supply is taken off the market. Then prices start to rise again. It's what they call the "boom-bust cycle". Perfect is not exactly the word I would choose to describe the messy boom-bust cycle. However markets have a built in way of matching supply and demand.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 07 Nov 2014, 00:54:14

I am actually in China right now. There are a lot of cars on the streets. The roads are absolutely filled with cars
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 12 May 2015, 06:32:13

A couple of news reports have recently come out crowing about how China's economy just isn't growing much right now. Well I went and looked up China's car sales for the last several years and this is what I found, yes growth is a little slower than it was in the white hot days of the last decade. However the growth rate is still orange hot compared to the Western old line industrial powers.

Passenger car sales in China,

2008 6,76 Million, 1,69 Million per quarter average
2009 10,33 Million, 2,58 Million per quarter average
2010 13.76 Million, 3,44 Million per quarter average
2011 14.47 Million, 3,62 Million per quarter average
2012 15.50 Million, 3,88 Million per quarter average
2013 17.93 Million, 4,48 Million per quarter average
2014 19.71 Million, 4,93 Million per quarter average
2015 5.31 Million, 5,31 Million per quarter average

2015 numbers are for just the first quarter of the year but I challenge anyone to say with a straight face China is no longer interested in expanding their passenger vehicle fleet and competing for world oil supply. The facts are at their average monthly sale rate in the first quarter of 2015 they will have already purchased more passenger cars by April 30 2015 than they bought in the entire calendar year of 2008.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/2337 ... -in-china/
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby sparky » Tue 12 May 2015, 06:43:53

.
I can feel the underlying racism , why should the gooks think like us !
I got news , they are just as dumb and happy consumers as anyone
the wise oriental is an operetta concept
I work with quite a few ( my personal favorites are the Koreans )
a chinese brother came one day with a smile witch could have shamed the moon , when asked if he got lucky last night , he waved his hand in a depreciating manner ,
"yesterday I got meself a merc ! " we duly congratulated the proud owner ,
his ancestors must have been purring with joy ,
and if you think cars are something , the WOMEN are going totally apes-shit on all the fashion and make up
not even the riot squad could stop them when there is the Shangai sales , the middle class shop in singapore ,
the government wives prefers London , New York is SO common !
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 12 May 2015, 12:09:00

This point was made here a long time ago: "There is NO way in hell there is enough oil the world for more Chinese cars.".

Of course there's enough oil in t world to fuel the current fleet of Chinese vehicles and a great many more. China currently consumes around 10 mm bopd. OPEC alone produces more than 25 mm bopd. And then there's Russia et al along with the US exporting the refined products from 3 mm boppd. There's more than enough oil to fuel their current demand times 3.

All they have to do is out bid the other consumers for what they need. So far they been doing a pretty good job of doing just that. No reason at the moment to not expect them to keep doing so.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 12 May 2015, 12:43:18

Another point to remember with China is that they are adding to their car fleet, unlike most first world countries where the new car replaces one that is being scrapped!
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 12 May 2015, 13:10:45

dolanbaker wrote:Another point to remember with China is that they are adding to their car fleet, unlike most first world countries where the new car replaces one that is being scrapped!


Excellent observation, those nearly 20 Million cars they bought last year minus those destroyed in accidents are all still on the road today and will be for another decade or even two decades. In the USA/Canada/Australia/EU/Japan new cars are bought at roughly the same rate old cars are scrapped, so the total number is quasistable. In China there is pent up demand for about 250 Million cars and they only have about 80 Million total, so unless something changes radically you can expect them to buy another 170 Million cars before things stabilize to replacement rates. Replacement rates will in theory be about 17 Million a year so they are already building more than that. This means once their internal demand is met they will have millions of cars available for export every year entering the world market, and if their discount on cars is as strong as it is on electronics in a decade China will dominate world car manufacturing and export, unless peak oil crashes the world economy.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby sparky » Tue 12 May 2015, 15:30:52

.
the rate of car ownership in developed countries is about 750 per thousand population
China rate is about 60 per thousand , so there is a bit less than one billion motorcar to go
of course while it happen some replacing of the present fleet will take place

that a definite billion of cars ...just for China , India , Brazil , Indonesia and the rest are on a similar trajectory
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 12 May 2015, 21:23:20

And lets remember that the growth of ICE's is going to be limited by a combination of improved fuel economy and the availability of fuel. At the moment the increase in the number of vehicles appears too large for improved mpg to offset to a significant degree. At the moment China is able to out bid most other potential motor fuel consumers.

Might be more meaningful to focus on the amount of motor fuel available today and what we might project going forward. If you believe we've reached PO or will shortly it implies we've also reached Peak Motor Fuel to some degree. Backing out that number a tad for the sake improved mpg then a good bit of the future vehicle owners will have to be burning motor fuels that someone else is currently consuming. Short of biofuels (which haven't grown significantly...yet) PO would seem to also imply PMF (Peak Motor Fuels) is upon us.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 12 May 2015, 21:36:02

ROCKMAN wrote:And lets remember that the growth of ICE's is going to be limited by a combination of improved fuel economy and the availability of fuel. At the moment the increase in the number of vehicles appears too large for improved mpg to offset to a significant degree. At the moment China is able to out bid most other potential motor fuel consumers.

Might be more meaningful to focus on the amount of motor fuel available today and what we might project going forward. If you believe we've reached PO or will shortly it implies we've also reached Peak Motor Fuel to some degree. Backing out that number a tad for the sake improved mpg then a good bit of the future vehicle owners will have to be burning motor fuels that someone else is currently consuming. Short of biofuels (which haven't grown significantly...yet) PO would seem to also imply PMF (Peak Motor Fuels) is upon us.

Could be, how is the natural gas supply in China these days? I was reading earlier that China has invested a lot on plants to re formulate Methane into Methanol, and every car in China is required to be M-100 compatible.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 13 May 2015, 07:08:48

sub - I've sure we'll see continuing efforts to develop alternative power sources to drive vehicles. But I suspect much of the gain will on be seen in models generated by folks who don't have a firm grasp on the magnitude and rapidity of the dynamics involved. Maybe if the move towards alt motor energy had begun in earnest 30 or 40 years ago there might be some chance to avoid a gasoline/diesel war in the future. But that didn't happen. Eventually there will be many more ICE vehicles then there will be fossil fuels to power them. The drivers will be those who can capture the volumes they require. The rest of the vehicle will just sit there going no where fast.

Which is exactly where many of the global motor fuel consumers have been sitting for decades so nothing really new for them. The shock will be for those folks who have always taken it for granted that they can fill up anytime they want. And lets not forget our EU cousins who have gotten themselves into something of a trap: they pushed motor fuels taxes high decades ago in order to force economy and conservation. All well and good but those taxes also funded a meaningful portion of their social programs. Should they start being forced out of the market place by the likes of China not only will they be less mobile but those govts will also lose that share of the taxes.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 May 2015, 21:17:21

http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-crude-oil ... il-1915983

Well China officially passes US in crude imports. Certainly much has to do with prodigious car use. This is a watershed moment as now the policies and actions of China will be as watched and analyzed as the US in terms of economic and Geo-political trends. Of course this is foreboding in so much as this also signals how we refuse to attempt to wean off of fossil fuels. It is like we now have two US gas guzzler countries. :shock:
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 May 2015, 23:10:10

Tanada wrote:2015 numbers are for just the first quarter of the year but I challenge anyone to say with a straight face China is no longer interested in expanding their passenger vehicle fleet and competing for world oil supply. The facts are at their average monthly sale rate in the first quarter of 2015 they will have already purchased more passenger cars by April 30 2015 than they bought in the entire calendar year of 2008.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/2337 ... -in-china/

Absolutely right. And this squares with the observation that in China there are now quite a few multi-lane highways replacing (relatively speaking) ox-cart trails from not too long ago.

Now, when I ask myself, which uses more oil -- a busy many lane highway or an ox-cart trail, it's not too hard to point to the highway.

This is what just kills me about the green "We won't need oil in just a few years" fairy tale. It's just great that in the first world that better technology, incentives like CAFE standards, and an aging population are contributing to a general (over time) decrease in total miles driven. However, the vast third world, driven mostly by Chindia, VASTLY overwhelms the good news from the first world.

Until we can do a little objective math and at least talk about that -- the hopes for a quick green "fix" to "make oil obsolete" are completely delusional.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby GASMON » Sat 30 May 2015, 06:54:23

Don't forget China is investing heavily into high speed railways.

Image

Image

The USA isn't and this Elon Musk tube thingamajig is a JOKE.

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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 May 2015, 07:11:05

Well good but in the meantime limited fossil fuels are being consumed and depleted with the resulting warming effect. Why did not China from beginning of it's economic acceleration some years back develop this railway system and avoided it's already huge car culture.
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