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I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 20:13:24

MD wrote:Yep it has been amazing to watch that develop over the last decade or two. China has allegedly leap-frogged the west in certain areas, but in this regard I think they missed a real opportunity.

The Chinese are screwed just as badly as North America. Because with peak oil, they will also suffer the same economic consequences as us (the USA and Canada). They are becoming too reliant on oil that they will suffer as much as everyone else who's dependent on oil.

By the way, there is no way in hell we can meet the demand for Chinese oil consumption. There is simply not enough oil to meet the USA's demand for oil--let alone adding another major consumer of oil. By 2015, it is estimated that China will consume 15 million barrels of oil a day...a 6 million barrel increase from 2009. Where is that 6 million barrels of oil going to come from? You can't get it from anywhere that is the answer.

China's economy will probably collapse even harder than the USA's because the population is just so damn big. What would happen when everyone looses their jobs when USA companies stop buying goods from them? I'm lucky I don't live in China, and that I live in Canada. Canada is probably one of the better places to be when peak oil happens.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby sparky » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 20:33:50

.
People love cars .... repeat . people love cars
get your head around this absolute fact ,even screaming babies love cars
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 20:35:12

sparky wrote:.
People love cars .... repeat . people love cars
get your head around this absolute fact ,even screaming babies love cars

Cars are **** terrible. They pollute the environment, and cause car accidents.
Last edited by Tanada on Fri 07 Nov 2014, 23:05:12, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: profanity cut
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 20:42:26

Its not just China
A quote from Australia's right wing nut job Prime Minister's(Australia's version of GW Bush) book
“The humblest person is king in his own car”
His ambition for his term in government is to be known for building the roads of the 21st Century.
He made a commitment his government will not fund rail.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 21:01:34

Interesting video link, thanks for sharing -- and tell us about your trip to China, if you want to share.

I'll just say..

* Chinese want the "American Dream." Nobody is going to be able to tell them not to want Stuff and cars and McMansions and Kentucky Fried Chicken. They like these things, and there are over a billion Chinese.

* In polling, Chinese are very optimistic about growth and where their country is headed and rising up in the world. The average Chinese believes his life will be better next year and the year after, in contrast to more pessimistic Americans and Westerners.

It's all perspective. The average Chinese has a lot less than we do, but they're hopeful, cuz they're right next year they will have more. Whereas we are stagnating, and declining (on average).
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 21:48:35

Sixstrings wrote:Interesting video link, thanks for sharing -- and tell us about your trip to China, if you want to share.

I'll just say..

* Chinese want the "American Dream." Nobody is going to be able to tell them not to want Stuff and cars and McMansions and Kentucky Fried Chicken. They like these things, and there are over a billion Chinese.

* In polling, Chinese are very optimistic about growth and where their country is headed and rising up in the world. The average Chinese believes his life will be better next year and the year after, in contrast to more pessimistic Americans and Westerners.

It's all perspective. The average Chinese has a lot less than we do, but they're hopeful, cuz they're right next year they will have more. Whereas we are stagnating, and declining (on average).

There ain't going to be enough oil to sustain the Chinese economic growth. I'm sorry, but there just ain't enough oil for China.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 22:21:54

"There ain't going to be enough oil to sustain the Chinese economic growth. I'm sorry, but there just ain't enough oil for China." There's more than enough oil in the world for China to continue to grow for some time. All they have to do is outbid enough of the other oil consumers for what's out there. So far they've have been doing a pretty good job of just that. I know the focus here is PO: the max rate of global oil production. But as far the growth of any county's economy that will likely depend on when they reach peak oil/energy acquisition. So far China's rate of growth of its oil acquisition has greatly exceeded any other country. Will that continue? I don't know. But what I do know for a fact is that China has been kicking every other oil importer's ass in that matter.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 22:37:03

Rockman beat me to it :) They say a picture is worth a thousand words, so I'll leave you with these two DesuMaiden. I'll let you decide who is getting the better bang for their buck.

Asia oil consumption:
Image

vs

US oil consumption:
Image
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 22:51:23

k - Perfect pic. I've not spent much time in China. Just roaming the streets in a commercial area for a couple of weeks while adopting my daughter back in 2000. The boys on the bike look like they might be rolling out to party. But doesn't compare at all to how I saw commerce being carried out with small piece of crap vehicles and bicycles. I would just hang out in front of little ma and pop shops. The young one were always anxious to practice their English on me. Mostly guys. And what was their big motivation behind owning a vehicle: business enterprise . And why: because that was the only hope of getting a girl friend/wife.

Sex has always been very motivational. LOL.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 22:52:12

I have counted 14 people getting off a 125cc tricycle in the Philippines, where there are 2 motor scooters for every car. The actual traffic in most places is more like 80% on two wheels as most people have access to a scooter & they are very cheap to run. In Indonesia on a couple of recent trips it appears about 90% of traffic is on two wheels. China of course has a continental climate favouring 4 wheels & a capsule (car/bus/railcar).

The structure of local economies & income scales is very different throughout Asia. Most places people can walk out to the front gate and within a few seconds walk find a store selling the basics of life very cheaply. The age of the mega mall has begun, but is a very long way from wiping out the micro economics. Also the idea that suddenly people working 6 times 12 hour days a week for average less than $100 are suddenly going to match western, particularly American consumption levels is lacking in depth of thought on the topic.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby WildRose » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 22:55:12

Hi, Desu

I visited China in 2008, it was an amazing experience and I did my best to learn as much about the people and the country as I could.

When in Beijing, I could hardly believe the traffic - I expected to see more bikes (and there were a lot of folks on bikes), but the cars! Beijing is a huge city, and we were told that some people had to drive 3 to 4 hours in rush-hour traffic to get home from work. I wondered whether road construction had kept up with car ownership, since Shanghai is a larger city but seemed to flow much better.

The Chinese don't consume the amount of oil per capita that we in Canada (and the States) do, as they have much smaller living spaces and generally hang their clothes to dry, don't use all the appliances we use.

What parts of China will you be visiting?
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 00:15:14

WildRose wrote:The Chinese don't consume the amount of oil per capita that we in Canada (and the States) do, as they have much smaller living spaces and generally hang their clothes to dry, don't use all the appliances we use.
Your clothes dryer in Alberta runs on coal.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 00:42:27

my clothes dryer runs on solar and wind power
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 01:08:28

I live 100 meters from work, in the bush, in a caravan. I run my little diesel Peugeot for an hour in idle every couple of days to top up batteries. I am very close to the equator so forget about heating, I have adapted and don't use air conditioning at home. I shop on work time & en route, so really don't need to drive at all, but...

My job involves burning 50-60 litres a day, most of it doing 140kmh on outback roads. I know this has probably got DM wondering what kind of peak oil person takes a job like this? Well the fact is the job is actually a huge energy saver. I am using state of the art steel testing equipment & data logging maintenance schedules across an area bigger than Texas. Prior to this technology, the same infrastructure was 5 times more expensive to maintain & nobody was ever really sure about its state until something actually broke, which often involved death, injury to persons wildlife & stock etc etc. so yeah I burn a lot of gas, but someone was going to do it anyway and it is an improvement on the system costs in energy as much as time & money.

In a previous life I was a glass blower, running a business which burned 5 metric ton of gas every ten days, to make pretty baubles & the like. Being as I was a kind of aware glass blower, I taught myself how to use all recycled glass, & invented the first glass studio system which could teach Venetian glass blowing without either Pyrex (cooked at 2000C) or a furnace at all. A system which burns the same amount of gas as a household barbecue at full throttle, which could be used to turn landfill objects into pretty baubles.

At my age I have learned to accept relativism over idealism. Call me jaded, I don't care to much what people think of my attitudes, just ran out of steam for screaming about stuff I think should be done differently or not done at all; to concentrate on what I can do differently or not at all.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby toolpush » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 02:11:33

Shaved Monkey,

You most likely have a Hills Hoist, just like me.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 04:01:44

WildRose wrote:Hi, Desu

I visited China in 2008, it was an amazing experience and I did my best to learn as much about the people and the country as I could.

Sounds like fun :)

WildRose wrote:When in Beijing, I could hardly believe the traffic - I expected to see more bikes (and there were a lot of folks on bikes), but the cars! Beijing is a huge city, and we were told that some people had to drive 3 to 4 hours in rush-hour traffic to get home from work. I wondered whether road construction had kept up with car ownership, since Shanghai is a larger city but seemed to flow much better.

The country is much more crowded. So even though there are much fewer cars before capita, it seems like there are more cars in China than the USA.

WildRose wrote:The Chinese don't consume the amount of oil per capita that we in Canada (and the States) do, as they have much smaller living spaces and generally hang their clothes to dry, don't use all the appliances we use.

Even though they don't consume as much oil as the USA, they are the second largest oil consumer as of next year. They will consume 15 million barrels per day in 2015. They consumed 9 million barrels in 2009. Where is that extra 6 million barrels going to come from? There is no place in the world it can come from.

WildRose wrote:What parts of China will you be visiting?

Lanzhou but other than that I don't know.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 04:13:35

It will come from the market. 2015, yep, the market.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 04:24:41

SeaGypsy wrote:It will come from the market. 2015, yep, the market.

But there isn't enough oil in the ground to meet that kind of demand. 15 million barrels of oil per day is a lot, especially considering that we already hit peak in 2005.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 05:00:08

Where to start.... Last time I recall checking, there was well over a million posts on peakoil.com with close to half being in the economics forum. It is extremely difficult to sum up why the market will continue to supply China's oil needs for at last several years to come, but it will happen. You might not enjoy studying economics, but to get serious about peak oil discussion you need to have at least a rudimentary grok thereof.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 05:10:04

DesuMaiden wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:It will come from the market. 2015, yep, the market.

But there isn't enough oil in the ground to meet that kind of demand. 15 million barrels of oil per day is a lot, especially considering that we already hit peak in 2005.

It really doesn't matter how much is in the ground, it's getting it out at a price and at sufficient quantity that matter.

As already commented, the Chinese are outbidding others for extra oil and that other countries are already cutting back on their consumption, thus leaving more for China to import.

With the current slump in global oil prices, don't be surprised to see a jump in Chinese imports as they stock up in advance of the next energy crunch. Get it while it's cheap(er) than its future price.
There will almost certainly be a crunch in supply soon as the high cost producers delay adding new production due to it costing more to produce than it sells for. Then we could see a repeat of the oil price spike of 2008.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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