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I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 00:42:27

my clothes dryer runs on solar and wind power
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 01:08:28

I live 100 meters from work, in the bush, in a caravan. I run my little diesel Peugeot for an hour in idle every couple of days to top up batteries. I am very close to the equator so forget about heating, I have adapted and don't use air conditioning at home. I shop on work time & en route, so really don't need to drive at all, but...

My job involves burning 50-60 litres a day, most of it doing 140kmh on outback roads. I know this has probably got DM wondering what kind of peak oil person takes a job like this? Well the fact is the job is actually a huge energy saver. I am using state of the art steel testing equipment & data logging maintenance schedules across an area bigger than Texas. Prior to this technology, the same infrastructure was 5 times more expensive to maintain & nobody was ever really sure about its state until something actually broke, which often involved death, injury to persons wildlife & stock etc etc. so yeah I burn a lot of gas, but someone was going to do it anyway and it is an improvement on the system costs in energy as much as time & money.

In a previous life I was a glass blower, running a business which burned 5 metric ton of gas every ten days, to make pretty baubles & the like. Being as I was a kind of aware glass blower, I taught myself how to use all recycled glass, & invented the first glass studio system which could teach Venetian glass blowing without either Pyrex (cooked at 2000C) or a furnace at all. A system which burns the same amount of gas as a household barbecue at full throttle, which could be used to turn landfill objects into pretty baubles.

At my age I have learned to accept relativism over idealism. Call me jaded, I don't care to much what people think of my attitudes, just ran out of steam for screaming about stuff I think should be done differently or not done at all; to concentrate on what I can do differently or not at all.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby toolpush » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 02:11:33

Shaved Monkey,

You most likely have a Hills Hoist, just like me.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 04:01:44

WildRose wrote:Hi, Desu

I visited China in 2008, it was an amazing experience and I did my best to learn as much about the people and the country as I could.

Sounds like fun :)

WildRose wrote:When in Beijing, I could hardly believe the traffic - I expected to see more bikes (and there were a lot of folks on bikes), but the cars! Beijing is a huge city, and we were told that some people had to drive 3 to 4 hours in rush-hour traffic to get home from work. I wondered whether road construction had kept up with car ownership, since Shanghai is a larger city but seemed to flow much better.

The country is much more crowded. So even though there are much fewer cars before capita, it seems like there are more cars in China than the USA.

WildRose wrote:The Chinese don't consume the amount of oil per capita that we in Canada (and the States) do, as they have much smaller living spaces and generally hang their clothes to dry, don't use all the appliances we use.

Even though they don't consume as much oil as the USA, they are the second largest oil consumer as of next year. They will consume 15 million barrels per day in 2015. They consumed 9 million barrels in 2009. Where is that extra 6 million barrels going to come from? There is no place in the world it can come from.

WildRose wrote:What parts of China will you be visiting?

Lanzhou but other than that I don't know.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 04:13:35

It will come from the market. 2015, yep, the market.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 04:24:41

SeaGypsy wrote:It will come from the market. 2015, yep, the market.

But there isn't enough oil in the ground to meet that kind of demand. 15 million barrels of oil per day is a lot, especially considering that we already hit peak in 2005.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 05:00:08

Where to start.... Last time I recall checking, there was well over a million posts on peakoil.com with close to half being in the economics forum. It is extremely difficult to sum up why the market will continue to supply China's oil needs for at last several years to come, but it will happen. You might not enjoy studying economics, but to get serious about peak oil discussion you need to have at least a rudimentary grok thereof.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 05:10:04

DesuMaiden wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:It will come from the market. 2015, yep, the market.

But there isn't enough oil in the ground to meet that kind of demand. 15 million barrels of oil per day is a lot, especially considering that we already hit peak in 2005.

It really doesn't matter how much is in the ground, it's getting it out at a price and at sufficient quantity that matter.

As already commented, the Chinese are outbidding others for extra oil and that other countries are already cutting back on their consumption, thus leaving more for China to import.

With the current slump in global oil prices, don't be surprised to see a jump in Chinese imports as they stock up in advance of the next energy crunch. Get it while it's cheap(er) than its future price.
There will almost certainly be a crunch in supply soon as the high cost producers delay adding new production due to it costing more to produce than it sells for. Then we could see a repeat of the oil price spike of 2008.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 15:27:12

As Donlan points out there's more then enough exported oil to meet any increase in Chinese consumption. According to the EIA about 43 million bopd are exported. China produces about 4 million bopd and consumes around 10 million bopd. So they are currently importing only about 14% of the oil in the market place. Just 10 years ago China was importing less than 5% of global oil exports. If (and granted it's a big IF) China picks up another 9% increase in the next 10 years they'll import an additional 4 million bopd. Might be less... might be more. All depends on the ability of the other oil importers to compete with China.

Again what's important for any oil importer isn't global PO but how much of the available oil exports they can acquire.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 15:37:10

And about China's "obsession" with autos: I couldn't find any reliable stats but from my limited exposure the great demand for vehicles was for commerce and not commuting to a job or for pleasure. As I said, without one exception, every young Chinese lad I spoke to was emphatic about needing wheels to conduct business. And conducting business was key to getting a wife. Commuting via their own vehicle to a job working for someone else had no appeal from what I gathered from my conversations. Saving money to buy a vehicle was synonymous with saving money to start a business.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 18:18:20

ROCKMAN wrote:And about China's "obsession" with autos: I couldn't find any reliable stats but from my limited exposure the great demand for vehicles was for commerce and not commuting to a job or for pleasure. As I said, without one exception, every young Chinese lad I spoke to was emphatic about needing wheels to conduct business. And conducting business was key to getting a wife. Commuting via their own vehicle to a job working for someone else had no appeal from what I gathered from my conversations. Saving money to buy a vehicle was synonymous with saving money to start a business.

The problem is the Chinese are trying to pursue the American Dream, but the American Dream is only possible for Americans, because there is only enough oil in the world for one country as oil-hungry as the USA. And that one country is the one and only USA. There is no way there can be two countries in the world who uses as much oil as the USA. There simply isn't enough oil in the ground, and I would imagine China's economy will crash within the next ten years because of oil shortages.

Becoming oil dependent in an era when oil is becoming scarcer and scarcer is not a wise idea.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 18:57:13

Desu,

Here's where China has been getting their oil.


Image

And as Europe continues toward a depression, China will suck it up.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:02:29

MonteQuest wrote:Desu,

Here's where China has been getting their oil.
Image

Image

And as Europe continues toward a depression, China will suck it up.

Yeah but China will eventually suck all of it dry because oil is a nonrenewable resource. China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:10:17

A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:14:56


If the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:17:24

DesuMaiden wrote: China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.


Oil shortage? Don't think so. There is still a lot of oil in those economies listed. China will consume what they don't. It's debt and deflation that could soon bring the global economy down.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:19:05

DesuMaiden wrote:If the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?


You suggest imposing sanctions on China? :roll:
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 19:28:53

MonteQuest wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:If the USA controls the oil in Iraq, how come they are letting the Chinese import oil from Iraq? Wouldn't the USA be preventing China from importing oil from a country they control?


You suggest imposing sanctions on China? :roll:

No because I'm visiting China in another couple of days and the last thing I want is an oil shortage in the country.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 20:15:15

DesuMaiden wrote:Yeah but China will eventually suck all of it dry because oil is a nonrenewable resource. China's economy is going to collapse within the next ten years due to an oil shortage, I believe. Mark my words. The global economy will collapse within the next ten years due to oil shortages.
I don't agree. Each person in the US consumes around 22 barrels of oil a year. Each person in China consumes around 3 barrels. Now lets say global production of oil stops increasing next year. Oil demand turns into a zero sum game where if one person wants to consume more, someone else has to consume less. Because demand is still growing but supply isn't, oil increases in price. Now imagine some chinese worker with growing income. He can now afford to pay the extra premium for oil now demanded by the market. Further, that extra barrel of oil is very precious to him. It enables him to startup a new buisiness for the first time. With the extra money he can now afford to get married and start a family. Now contrast that to the average american. He is looking at the prices at the pump and asking himself, "Do I really need to keep my Hummer? Maybe I can make do with a Corolla. Or skip my cross country drive from now on." Bottom line, oil demand is going to fall first where it is being used least economically. That is in the US, not China:

Think this through. If you’re a North American, using 22-24 barrels of oil per year, will you scale back and use less if the price goes up? Will you negotiate your non-negotiable standard of living? Probably yes, because, after all, you’ve got a lot of room on the downside of your demand. (Look at how those poor Europeans schlep by on 10 barrels per year.)

The bottom line is that the average North American can surrender a barrel or two of oil use. The numbers show we already have! In some respects, we barely miss it.

But if you’re Indian or Chinese and using under three barrels of oil per year per capita, what will it take for you to cut back on use? The answer is that you won’t cut back, and you certainly won’t give up your barrels just because of higher oil prices.
Here’s How The Global Oil Grab Affects You

Eventually prices will rise to the point that even the Chinese start to balk. However that will be after you see oil consumption in the US fall.
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Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 20:27:12

kublikhan wrote: Bottom line, oil demand is going to fall first where it is being used least economically. That is in the US, not China:


I concur. It is the case now, here and in Europe, along with Japan, where oil demand has fallen with high prices while consumption increased in China and India.
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