Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby WildRose » Thu 15 Oct 2009, 23:19:19

americandream wrote:They've only just abandoned the bike! 30 years ago, Beijing was notorious for its bike jams. Google it.


Well, yes. And the older generation still ride bikes and walk everywhere and can be seen doing Tai Chi in the parks. But cars seem to be appealing
to the younger people (young adults to middle-aged). Now that the idea of "a car for every household" seems possible for the Chinese, it would be unlikely that they'd abandon the desire to own one.
User avatar
WildRose
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1873
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 02:00:00

Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby americandream » Fri 16 Oct 2009, 02:22:32

Obviously cars are appealing. Advertisers are selling the dream to the poor sods, aren't they?

WildRose wrote:
americandream wrote:They've only just abandoned the bike! 30 years ago, Beijing was notorious for its bike jams. Google it.


Well, yes. And the older generation still ride bikes and walk everywhere and can be seen doing Tai Chi in the parks. But cars seem to be appealing
to the younger people (young adults to middle-aged). Now that the idea of "a car for every household" seems possible for the Chinese, it would be unlikely that they'd abandon the desire to own one.
americandream
permanently banned
 
Posts: 8653
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 02:00:00

China's carmarket becomes world's biggest

Unread postby Bas » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 04:45:58

China has just rolled its 10-millionth car off the assembly line. Scott Tong reports the country is currently king of the auto industry. Before today, only Japan and the U.S. assembled 10 million vehicles in a single year. China did it in just over 9 months. By contrast, U.S. auto plants this year have cranked out just 4 million units.

China, in fact, is tops in two categories: world's top producer and consumer this year, thanks to government incentives. Those will end, just as Cash for Clunkers did. But analyst Jerry Huang at CSM Worldwide doesn't see the China's car market breaking down.

Jerry Huang: Customers in mid-size cars or SUVs, they don't care about the government incentive or subsidy. So there are still plenty of customers in China which will buy their cars next year.

Top sellers in China are Hyundai, Nissan and Volkswagen, along with Chinese brand BYD. Huang says China's emerging consumers are just now trading up and replacing their first cars. Which gives rise to a brand new job description in China: the used-car salesman.
linky
"The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."

- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Bas
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 4042
Joined: Sat 26 Mar 2005, 03:00:00
Location: over here

Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby Bas » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 10:06:10

Sorry SG, hadn't seen your thread. Anyway, did someone say gas consumption in China is down? Actually it's up.
"The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."

- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Bas
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 4042
Joined: Sat 26 Mar 2005, 03:00:00
Location: over here

Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 10:29:49

I thought China making EVs means "bye bye peak oil"?

:lol:
User avatar
mos6507
permanently banned
 
Posts: 9499
Joined: Fri 03 Aug 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Boston Suburbs

Re: China overtakes the world in auto sales! Up 78% in '09

Unread postby americandream » Thu 22 Oct 2009, 13:24:23

Strange that innit! You add 1 billion additional pigs to the trough and your purchase of swill drops :lol:

mos6507 wrote:I thought China making EVs means "bye bye peak oil"?

:lol:
americandream
permanently banned
 
Posts: 8653
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 02:00:00

China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 27 May 2014, 03:23:02

This idea might help with air pollution, but will it have much effect on oil use?

Will people rush out to buy new cars? This seems a good deal for car makers!

China plans to remove six million vehicles that do not meet exhaust emission standards by the end of the year as a way of improving air quality.

More than 300,000 vehicles will be decommissioned in the capital Beijing.

Recent findings from the state's environmental agency showed that 31% of the air pollution in Beijing comes from vehicle exhaust fumes.

Next year, the government plans to scrap up to five million vehicles from other regions.
......

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27583404
EdwinSm
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 03:23:59

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby peterjames » Tue 27 May 2014, 04:44:58

They are going to put an extra 20 million odd cars on the road this year, and another 20 million next year. In addition, they will add over 350 coal fired power stations of the next few years, and the population is going up 30 million or so. These 6 million cars they are taking off the road (and they probably wont amount to anything more than motorised rickshaws), will need to be burning tar sands for their elimination to make any difference.
peterjames
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 28
Joined: Sun 16 Feb 2014, 02:46:16

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 27 May 2014, 08:02:51

An older worn out old car probably puts out more pollution then ten new ones so getting rid of them certainly will do no harm and they might achieve a solid plus in air quality. Imagine what the US would be like if we were still running cars on leaded gas.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7788
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby FoxV » Tue 27 May 2014, 09:30:02

vtsnowedin wrote:An older worn out old car probably puts out more pollution then ten new ones so getting rid of them certainly will do no harm and they might achieve a solid plus in air quality. Imagine what the US would be like if we were still running cars on leaded gas.

Well sure getting rid of the old ones is probably a good idea. Although in communist china I doubt that the scrapping will be done fairly or evenly. I'm sure commercial fleet owners will be able to "pay a small fee" to someone to be exempted from the rules. ie this will probably focus on poor people in old beaters that don't do a lot of driving anyways.

but as PJ says, it's all just a drop in the bucket and will only have some slowing effect on the pollution growth. If any effect at all. just how much of that pollution savings from scrapping old cars will be taken up by brand new hummers and over sized SUVs anyways?

I'm sure Jevon is looking down laughing his ass off as we speak. :P

P.S.: We did this in Ontario. Trucks and SUVs were given easier standards because they would never pass the standards for everyone else. The result has been a boon for parts manufactures, dealers, and garages.

And Pollution? well nobody really knows because the changes occurred in tandem with the gutting of our manufacture base. So nobody can tell how much of our pollution improvements (which is only a small issue in one area, Toronto, out of a province half the size of europe) have been from the "drive clean" program or from our overall de-industrializing. :roll:
FoxV
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1321
Joined: Wed 02 Mar 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Canada

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 27 May 2014, 10:30:46

Anyone familiar with LA air pollution will understand perfectly how big a difference having stricter vehicle air pollution standards can make as there are more cars being driven in LA than 35 years ago and the air is cleaner or, at least, no longer has that brown gunky color known as smog.
User avatar
jedrider
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 873
Joined: Thu 28 May 2009, 09:10:44

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby BobInget » Tue 27 May 2014, 11:48:20

Air quality in China's big cities has reached critical mass.

Regional and global impacts of Asian pollution

In the last 30 years, with a quasi-exponential growth in industrialization, population, and urbanization, many Asian countries have experienced deteriorating air quality and a dramatic increase in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol in the atmosphere. Enormous manufacturing, industrial, and power plants, as well as automobiles, have produced huge amounts of air pollutants.

China, for instance, has experienced severe air pollution, with aerosols or fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) reaching unprecedented high levels across many cities in recent winters. Measurements in Beijing showed that levels of PM2.5 were about 350 to 500 μg/m3, which are more than 10 times higher than the 25 μg/m3 that the World Health Organization considers safe.

In January 2014, China experienced record levels of pollution several times, even exceeding the maximum that the U.S. Embassy’s equipment can measure. Because of the ever-growing air pollution in China, in the last three decades, the nationwide number of deaths from lung cancer has risen by about 465 percent.

Man-made aerosols are also linked to the modification of weather and climate. Our previous studies have shown that air pollution in China can reduce the surface temperature by scattering or absorbing the solar radiation aloft, and can suppress light precipitation and enhance extreme heavy rain by modulating cloud systems. Air pollution is also found to increase the frequency of lightning associated with thunderstorms.

While these results indicate that man-made aerosols strongly contribute to extreme weather near the emission source, a more critical question is about the far-reaching effects of Asian pollution.

Under the influence of the wintertime monsoon flow from Asia to the Pacific Ocean, huge amounts of man-made aerosols from Asia, mainly composed of sulfate and black carbon, can be lifted a few miles high and transported downwind to the northern Pacific Ocean and even North America.

Using global climate models and observational data, our recent study suggests that Asian pollutants can significantly affect cloud formations, precipitation, and the intensity of storms over the northern Pacific Ocean. These findings explain the increase in wintertime convective clouds that researchers have observed in this region (using satellite measurements) since the 1990s.

Since the mid-latitude storm is critical to the global general circulation that transports heat and moisture from low latitudes to the polar regions, we can expect that the storms modulated by Asian pollution will affect the weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Inter-governmental agencies should use the quantitative predictions of the far-reaching effects of Asian pollution when developing strategies to mitigate the regional and global impacts of anthropogenic pollutants.

– written by Yuan Wang, provided to BBJ by The Mark News

Yuan Wang is currently a researcher in the Jet Propulsion Lab at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
BobInget
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 200
Joined: Sun 12 Feb 2012, 16:46:44

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 27 May 2014, 12:08:25

jedrider wrote:Anyone familiar with LA air pollution will understand perfectly how big a difference having stricter vehicle air pollution standards can make as there are more cars being driven in LA than 35 years ago and the air is cleaner or, at least, no longer has that brown gunky color known as smog.
A few years ago I read that in LA they could place detectors by the freeways and see the spike in emissions when old beaters went by. But there was no legal requirement to get rid of them. Is it still the same?
"I could go on, but let’s veer off in another direction instead."

– The Archdruid
User avatar
Keith_McClary
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7277
Joined: Wed 21 Jul 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Suburban tar sands

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby Surf » Tue 27 May 2014, 12:28:45

jedrider wrote:
Anyone familiar with LA air pollution will understand perfectly how big a difference having stricter vehicle air pollution standards can make as there are more cars being driven in LA than 35 years ago and the air is cleaner or, at least, no longer has that brown gunky color known as smog.
A few years ago I read that in LA they could place detectors by the freeways and see the spike in emissions when old beaters went by. But there was no legal requirement to get rid of them. Is it still the same?


Every other year or so California requires that you take your car in to verify it still meetes emissions specifications. Also the emission systems components are inspected to verify they have not been modified or removed. If it doesn't doesn't pass the test you will not get your cars licens renewed until it is fixed or you get a new car.

In the past people would make adjustments to the cars carborator to get it to pass and then undo the adjustments to get it to run the way they liked. However today with modern computer controlled fuel injection system it is very difficult or imposible to make those adjustments.
Surf
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 105
Joined: Sat 13 Jul 2013, 13:13:49

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Tue 27 May 2014, 13:24:33

jedrider wrote:
Anyone familiar with LA air pollution will understand perfectly how big a difference having stricter vehicle air pollution standards can make as there are more cars being driven in LA than 35 years ago and the air is cleaner or, at least, no longer has that brown gunky color known as smog.
A few years ago I read that in LA they could place detectors by the freeways and see the spike in emissions when old beaters went by. But there was no legal requirement to get rid of them. Is it still the same?


As I live in Southern California and also still use an "old beater" (1987 Nissan Pickup) as my only motor vehicle, I had to put my two-bits into this discussion.

My truck is well maintained even with 340k miles on the original engine. Compression is still good, and I have passed the "smog" inspection every year it was required (every other year in California). Most recently September 2013.

Last year I did have to put out $1600 to replace smog system parts, but that is a lot cheaper than buying a new truck. $17,000 for the same current model here.

I have read a number of times it takes as much energy to produce a new vehicle as it will use in the first 10 years of use (100k to 150k mileage?). So probably there is not anywhere near as much savings in either fuel or green house gases as there would be in properly maintaining an older car or truck and checking the tire pressure each week.
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
User avatar
SILENTTODD
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 926
Joined: Sat 06 May 2006, 02:00:00
Location: Corona, CA

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 27 May 2014, 14:53:37

Vehicles built in 1975 or older are exempt from smog test requirements in California. It's actually a pretty good policy, because only restored or customized classic cars and trucks are still around and driveable by then, and such cars get very few miles driven, while tending to be finely tuned. Nobody drives a polluting clunker that old every day except for undocumented immigrants, and it is not PC to arrest them or get upset if they have no plates, no insurance, and no smog certificate.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4085
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 27 May 2014, 15:18:43

Also, the scrapped cars might be sold to developing economies.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4611
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: China to scrap 6 million cars

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Tue 27 May 2014, 19:33:53

Kaiser Jeep wrote"
Nobody drives a polluting clunker that old every day except for undocumented immigrants, and it is not PC to arrest them or get upset if they have no plates, no insurance, and no smog certificate.


Don't even get me started on that one! Or the ones that drive totally plastered, cause a major collision, then run back across the boarder to avoid the consequences!
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
User avatar
SILENTTODD
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 926
Joined: Sat 06 May 2006, 02:00:00
Location: Corona, CA

I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile...

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 20:01:40

There ain't enough oil in the world for more cars in China. Watch this youtube video where the Chinese are driving cars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTKRk4EEhYM

There is no way in hell they even sustain an automobile fleet the size of the USA's. That's because there ain't enough space in a country as overpopulated as China. China has 1.3 billion people. There is no way they have as many cars per capita as the USA. Not by a long shot.

There is NO way in hell there is enough oil the world for more Chinese cars. It takes an uncounted number of barrels to produce a car (by all estimates about 27 to 54 barrels of oil to manufacture a car). And a car will use an incredible amount of oil in its life-time. If China had as many cars as the USA per capita, it would require 7 oil fields the size of the ones in Saudi Arabia to meet that kind of demand for oil.

I'm visiting China next tuesday. I can't imagine how crowded and chaotic the roads would be with all of those cars on it. I just hope I don't get run over by any cars, lol.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
DesuMaiden
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 851
Joined: Mon 06 Oct 2014, 15:00:31

Re: I can't believe China is so obsessed with the automobile

Unread postby MD » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 20:08:11

Yep it has been amazing to watch that develop over the last decade or two. China has allegedly leap-frogged the west in certain areas, but in this regard I think they missed a real opportunity.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
User avatar
MD
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4827
Joined: Mon 02 May 2005, 02:00:00
Location: On the ball

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AdamB, marmico, pstarr, rockdoc123, Tanada and 23 guests