[The_Virginian]

Devil et al.,

If the heater in a Hybrid is a "heat pump" I would be weary of getting acceptable heating in sub zero temps. Heck, even 20 degree F or below it gets dicey with heat pumps (at least that has been my experiance)

That's why most household "Heat pumps" have "auxilary heat" a bunch of ni-chrome resistance wire that heats the air form an electric source.

[OilBurner]

From what I understand with results on purely electric vehicles (lost the link now), air-con reduces range by 30% and heating elements by 35%. If hybrids have to use heaters rather than air-con then you're almost certainly losing a major chunk of the improvement gained using the Atkinson cycle. Air-con I could probably try to avoid using, heaters I couldn't.

I'm really intringued by all this. So much so, I'm tempted to trade my car in for a Prius to see how well it really performs, debate aside. Only trouble is, they ain't cheap yet. Anybody care to donate in the interests of science!!

[TennBikeBerk]

Okay, so hybrids might be hyped a little.

How about we just go with BEV's (Battery Electric Vehicles)... you can't argue about 0mpg.

Seriously though, they require no oil at all. Sure they need to be charged, but there is wind, solar, hydroelectric, and nuclear power. Being charged at night, they won't have much of a drain on our current power system, as a lot of the power plants are generating more power than is being used at night.

The range sucks right now (about 100 miles per charge), but I have heard talk of batteries that charge to 80% in 2 minutes. I imagine that higher-capacity batteries are right around the corner.

There are BEV vehicles on the streets right now. Why don't we all drive them.... there goes a lot of fear about peaking oil supplies/production.

[FoxV]

I'll save you about $30K oilburner. Word on the street (sorry lost the link as well ) is that the prius gets between 40 and 50mpg in the real world

and TennBikeBerk, I've seen specs on a new li-ion battery that has 3X the current li-ion capacity so it looks like 300miles per charge is possible pretty soon. However this type of battery is not rapid recharging, but at least its suppose to be cheaper than current li-ion chemistry (sorry, yet another lost link. I really need to start bookmarking things )

edit---
oh hey, here it is
Solid Sate Cr-F-Li Battery

[Aaron]

First, despite a substantial price premium (about $5000) over equivalent conventional vehicles, industry insiders widely agree that the market leaders, Toyota and Honda, are at best realizing a near-zero marginal profit on every hybrid vehicle they produce. However, this price premium doesn’t pay for itself in increased fuel economy, especially since most owners report far lower fuel economy than EPA estimates

Second, long term maintenance costs are sure to be higher than equivalent conventional vehicles. Besides the limited lifetime of the battery packs, the massive increase in the complexity of these vehicles just means there’s more to go wrong. Long term owners are sure to find that, just when they’ve saved enough on fuel to recover their initial investment, they start getting hit with 4-figure repair bills.

The first two points have not been lost on the general consumer. Which brings us to the third: rather than a massive portion of the overall market, J.D. Power and Assoc. predicts that hybrid sales will top-out at only about 3%. At that rate, it is doubtful that Toyota and Honda, to say nothing of later entrants into the marketplace, will never achieve profitability with hybrids. And, free of government subsidies or mandates, it’s unlikely production will continue.

link

[DoctorDoom]

Well, I hope they're wrong. Hybrids are selling like hotcakes here in California, and Toyota is ramping up production. At some level the economic calculations don't work. Many people are motivated by a desire to do their bit for the environment and/or the fuel crisis. Some like the performance they get (Lexus models). Plus, who knows what gas will cost a few years from now? Most of those calculations assume prices stay where they are - we all know they won't.

Another thing to consider is the possibility of rationing. People seem to think "so what if the price goes up I can afford to pay" (and, unspoken but implicit, outbid the Chinese and Indians for the world's remaining oil). Beyond a certain point the government won't be willing to let the pricing system ration dwindling petroleum supplies, and will step in with price controls to protect "those that can least afford it". Price controls would have to be accompanied by WW2-style rationing. At that point people will be very glad they have a high-mileage vehicle - their vehicle's mileage will determine how far they can go on their monthly ration.

[Caoimhan]

And don't forget the "fashion" factor. A lot of people, especially californians, who are image-conscious, just want to be seen driving a hybrid.

[PhilBiker]

This guy's full of shit. More hybrids and plug-in hybrids are coming. People actually do care about buying vehicles which pollute less and use less gas. It's not all about money, people are willing to buy these things.

[gnm]

OK, and what about battery replacement? Seriously why are these any better than small clean diesels? And why aren't we seeing those? They are all over the place in central america.

-G

[Devil]

First, despite a substantial price premium (about $5000) over equivalent conventional vehicles, industry insiders widely agree that the market leaders, Toyota and Honda, are at best realizing a near-zero marginal profit on every hybrid vehicle they produce. However, this price premium doesn’t pay for itself in increased fuel economy, especially since most owners report far lower fuel economy than EPA estimates

Second, long term maintenance costs are sure to be higher than equivalent conventional vehicles. Besides the limited lifetime of the battery packs, the massive increase in the complexity of these vehicles just means there’s more to go wrong. Long term owners are sure to find that, just when they’ve saved enough on fuel to recover their initial investment, they start getting hit with 4-figure repair bills.

The first two points have not been lost on the general consumer. Which brings us to the third: rather than a massive portion of the overall market, J.D. Power and Assoc. predicts that hybrid sales will top-out at only about 3%. At that rate, it is doubtful that Toyota and Honda, to say nothing of later entrants into the marketplace, will never achieve profitability with hybrids. And, free of government subsidies or mandates, it’s unlikely production will continue.

link

Why do we have to have the same thread subjects over and over again? As site administrator you darn well know this has been discussed several times before now. You are perpetrating an administrative sin. I'm getting fed up with you guys with nothing new to say and others believing that the size of their posts makes what they say more likely. Can we please have more facts and less bullshit, please?

[DriveElectric]

Another thing to consider is the possibility of rationing. People seem to think "so what if the price goes up I can afford to pay" (and, unspoken but implicit, outbid the Chinese and Indians for the world's remaining oil). Beyond a certain point the government won't be willing to let the pricing system ration dwindling petroleum supplies, and will step in with price controls to protect "those that can least afford it". Price controls would have to be accompanied by WW2-style rationing. At that point people will be very glad they have a high-mileage vehicle - their vehicle's mileage will determine how far they can go on their monthly ration.

DoctorDoom, you just nailed the exact reason everyone should have a high MPG vehicle. It has nothing to do with the cost of gasoline. That can be artifically manipulated by governments.

The real issue is outright rationing. The government can do it. Even the gas station owner can do it in a sense of "fairness". Example: limit of 5 gallons per customer.

If you only get 5 gallons per week:
a) do you want to have an SUV getting 15 mpg?
b) do you want to have a Prius getting 50 mpg?
c) do you want to have a Plug-in Prius getting 103 mpg with the first 35 miles each day pure electric?

If rationing hits, then the person with a gas optional vehicle is least affected.

[Geology_Guy]

There are always new people who have not read everything about peak oil. If you are getting tired of reading about it take a break. Go visit sites on B. Spears or cooking or something.

[pilferage]

Why do we have to have the same thread subjects over and over again? As site administrator you darn well know this has been discussed several times before now. You are perpetrating an administrative sin. I'm getting fed up with you guys with nothing new to say and others believing that the size of their posts makes what they say more likely. Can we please have more facts and less bullshit, please?

On one hand, we have had similar discussions before and are most likely rehashing old news. Otoh, since this site has grown a bit, and most people don't know or care to use the appropriate search strings, bringing up old topics encourages a relatively homogeneous distribution of information wrt to the user base. For most people education involves rehashing the same concept over and over again.
Wrt the thread...
Who here carrys their lunch to work in their fridge?

[dissimulo]

I have a 2000 Honda Insight. It is a great little car. I used to get 72MPG when I did a lot of freeway driving. I now get 63MPG because I rarely drive it outside the city. This car was quite expensive compared to a comparable econo-box, but I had more disposable income at the time and was thinking about peak oil. I will be happy to have this car as gas prices increase, although cost of repairs is excessive.

However, I also have a 1980 VW diesel Rabbit Pickup. It is also a great little car. It gets about 47MPG. It was cheap, including the cost of replacing the engine, the transmission, and many other parts. I plan to add a waste vegetable oil system to it this year. Despite the fact that the Honda is newer and gets better mileage, I plan to keep the VW as the car of last resort. It is more versatile, easy to understand and repair, parts are widely available, and I can stash bikes in the bed to use after I've spent my last dollar on fuel .

Hybrids have their place, but I look at them as disposable cars. The super high tech electronics, lightweight aluminum and plastic parts, reliance on expensive battery packs, and low production numbers mean these will probably not survive to second or third generation rebuilds. On the other hand, I'm guessing my diesel Rabbit will still be working in 2020 assuming I can get any fuel for it.

The energy cost of hybrids, compared to the relatively minor increase in fuel efficiency seen by most of them, probably means that running out to buy a hybrid rather than keeping your current car running only brings the world closer to peak. On the other hand, for individual preparation for peak oil, a hybrid looks like a pretty good investment if you don't have to go into debt to buy one.

Just be prepared for the shocking repair bills when anything breaks. It's like licking the terminals on the battery pack.

[dub_scratch]

It may or may not be beneficial to buy a hybrid as an individual high mileage driver. But one thing that is completely lost on the do-gooders-- those who think buying these things will save us and save our planet-- is the fact that the switch of our fleet to hybrids will do absolutely nothing good to mitigate peak oil or environmental impact. In fact, hybrids will make those problems much worse, not better.

Jeavons paradox states that the more energy efficient a process gets, the more energy that tends to get consumed. This has been the historical trend. Cars are big energy sinks that do nothing but waste resources and trash wealth. So by making more efficient vehicles means making a more energy efficient way to waste more energy and devour the environment. Think about it folks. We are going to end up dumping our wasteful garbage producing auto based system sooner or later this century. If we were to be able to develop greater energy efficiency in cars then that may mean our abandonment of the auto will be later than it would be otherwise. And in the mean time of that, huge amounts of oil will be squandered on the entire shit infrastructure needed to keep the masses mobile (freeways, parking garages, sprawl, cars, collision shops, funerals, wheelchairs, ambulance chasing lawyers, etc.) . And that process of preserving the auto will divert resources from more pressing needs such as building alternative energy.

I'd much rather see people buy Hummers over hybrids. The future would be much brighter if people did.

[TheInterloafer]

dub_scratch: Absolutely right. Great point.

Hybrids won't save us from peak oil. Only driving less will do that.

[gnm]

Problem is after a little while of gas rationing, shipping your replacement batteries is gonna be REAAALLLL $pendy! Or your could buy a scooter (100mpg now) and install a greenhouse and solar/thermal/PV system with the money you save on that Prius. In short I think they are overpriced feel-good greenie toyz..

Too true - less driving will be the save.... And to think around here they are spending hundreds of millions on upgrading the freeway system... And not even a mention of light rail or any such thing...

-G

[FatherOfTwo]

Devil,
There are many new people joining all of the time. Unfortunately 99.9% of them don't search the forums, just read what is latest.

[DriveElectric]

Too true - less driving will be the save.... And to think around here they are spending hundreds of millions on upgrading the freeway system... And not even a mention of light rail or any such thing...

-G

Exactly the opposite here. My city of residence is building a massive light rail system. A few years ago we passed a 1 cent sales tax that funds the light rail in this city. 1st leg (suburbs to downtown) is scheduled for completion in late 2006. A stop is within 3 miles of my home and bike racks are included in the system. Gotta love it.

[mgibbons19]

In short I think they are overpriced feel-good greenie toyz..

That's my vibe. Better off keeping the corolla running for as long as possible and keep riding bike. That money not spent on a prius is more valuable to me.