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Hurricane Maria

Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 16:19:49

Newfie wrote:The point is BIG difference between 110 and 160.
Point understood.
The question is do you build to withstand the likely storm during the solar panels lifetime of thirty years and go for 110mph with a good safety factor or do you build for the once in a hundred year storm with it's 165 MPH winds? As the really big storms still come in randomly it will always be a crap shoot but I'm guessing that most builders will take the lower path and hope the government will bail them out if they have guessed wrong.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 16:52:16

"100 year storms" ain't what they use to be! :) :cry:
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 16:55:18

dohboi wrote:"100 year storms" ain't what they use to be! :) :cry:

Vague statement. Do you think they are better or worse then they used to be?
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 18:55:16

VT,
My panels have withstood 50+ knots. My strategy is to avoid more wind than that. I may not succeed but I'll try.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 20:23:57

Newfie wrote:VT,
My panels have withstood 50+ knots. My strategy is to avoid more wind than that. I may not succeed but I'll try.
How do you avoid storm winds if your panels are mounted on a fixed point such as an island?
I can see moving your boat out of the way using the weather forecasts to give you the shortest route to safety but a solar installation either roof mounted or freestanding on the ground is pretty much going to have to take it or get reduced to garbage. All depends on the wind speed and the amount of the debris upwind of your panels that are going to pelt them as it passes by.
Still might be worth it considering the cost of imported diesel generated electricity year in and future year out but I don't think it is a slam dunk one way or the other given the information we have at hand.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby GHung » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 20:50:55

vtsnowedin wrote:
Newfie wrote:VT,
My panels have withstood 50+ knots. My strategy is to avoid more wind than that. I may not succeed but I'll try.
How do you avoid storm winds if your panels are mounted on a fixed point such as an island?
I can see moving your boat out of the way using the weather forecasts to give you the shortest route to safety but a solar installation either roof mounted or freestanding on the ground is pretty much going to have to take it or get reduced to garbage. All depends on the wind speed and the amount of the debris upwind of your panels that are going to pelt them as it passes by.
Still might be worth it considering the cost of imported diesel generated electricity year in and future year out but I don't think it is a slam dunk one way or the other given the information we have at hand.


As I mentioned earlier, due to the modularity of PV systems, they can be moved to safety and re-deployed with enough warning.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 21:15:32

VT,

Flexibility is the cornerstone of my survival plan.

I see many downsides to dirt living. I know boat living is not for all, but then you need to accept the disadvantages.

Just gloatting. Watch long enough and I'll do something stupid and prove myself wrong.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Oct 2017, 21:59:05

BBC story on PR.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... a-41447184

From my perspective I think there may be something to charges the government was slow on PR recovery. But I thnk the major challenges are more situational and circumstantial.

From my observation PR's power grid infrastructure was pretty horrible to start with. Definitly not up to USA standards. So when the storm hit it was pretty easy to deal a knock out blow. Same goes for streets and probably other infrastructure.

That is to say that PR has been forgotten by the USA for many decades and many administrations.

PR is coming on the heals of Irma and concurrent with mainland effects of Maria. Government response resources were already heavily engaged so PR was competing with Texas and Fl for emergency response. Navy ships were already at or heading to Texas when Maria hit. Yet more resources had to be found.

PR is just like mainland USA in relying upon JIT delivery. That means they are pretty much living hand to mouth, just like the mainland. But PR's supply routes are much more complicated and far less flexible than cities served by rail and highways from surrounding areas. From industry reports It seems getting stuff TO PR was less of a problem than might be imagined. But the busted infrastructure hampered internal distribution. Not to mention personnel difficulties. But again these arose because PR is isolated. Locals took advantage because they could.

It's still going to take a long time. My bet is PR may never fully recover. What agriculture that existed will likely not rebuild. Too much capital required and too much competition from other sources. Not a new story.

Mainland power companies have cooperative agreements to rush resources to stricken areas due to ice storms or whatever. PR, because of its isolation, doesn't. And it's not easy to rush hundreds of line Trucks, crews, poles, wire,transformers, hardware across the miles of ocean. And it's not like you replace in kind, you need to build a whole new system. I'll bet 30% of power taps are illegal before the torm. So yeah, I can see the mess they are in.

In hindsight this disaster has been in the making for many, many years. PR is vulnerable and has remained vulnerable. It does not have the wealth of he greater country in part because of its isolation.

Mainland cities dont have the same handicaps of poor infrastructure and isolation. So it can be hard for us to understand why things are different there.

What is similar is that, in general, the mainland also does a poor job of prepping for future dsasters. Look at NOLA. if, as I suspect, things get tougher here then our preps will get cut even more due to budget shortfalls. Worse our grid is aging and over stressed. Our roads are not improving. And our political divide is isolating us from one another.

If no worse event happens first I think PR pray will be a model of what we can expect on the mainland in 50 years.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby baha » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 04:19:11

I've posted this before...a larger version of this is what you need in a 160 mph hurricane zone.

https://www.smartflowerpacific.com/smartflower-pop/

Or just panels in the side of hill with shutters you put over them.

The worse expected winds in my area are 110 mph. I am about 200 miles from the coast so I think that's a good number. I would not even consider removing my panels for a hurricane. The wind won't break them, it would take flying debris. And since they are tilted at 35 degrees and made of tempered glass they will take a lot of abuse. There are no trees close enough to fall on it. Softball size hail will destroy it and my garden :(

The panels themselves aren't that expensive. And that's what insurance is for :)

There was a softball size hailstorm near Raleigh recently. We had three customers affected. The one ground mount whose panels are tilted at 35 degrees lost one panel. There were two roof mounted systems. the one at 45 degrees had no damage. The one at 25 degrees had 10 of 20 panels broken. Engineering considerations...

BTW - Even though the 45 degree panels were not damaged, his shingle roof was beat to death and his insurance is buying him a new one. So we had to remove the panels anyway so they can replace the roof. Solar panels are tougher than shingles and they don't blow off.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 15:34:54

Increasingly painful to see an American mayor desperately pleading for help to anyone who will listen.

Do not ignore this.


https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 7378063360

Desperate San Juan Mayor takes to Twitter after Trump administration ignores requests for help


https://thinkprogress.org/puerto-rico-c ... 3f7b0/amp/
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Oct 2017, 17:13:47

By official estimates, just under 12 percent of power is restored on the island. Even drinking water in many areas remains limited: just over half of customers reliant on Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) have potable water.

Conditions for an epidemic, tropical water-borne diseases like typhoid fever, cholera, leptospirosis and hepatitis A? Hope it's not too late :(
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 06:39:17

FEMA reveals that the obstructionist mayor of San Juan has been bypassed by them going directly to the Governor of Puerto Rico to get things done rather than simply playing politics.

https://youtu.be/U6Ajaxn164I
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 19:29:51

https://www.munichre.com/en/media-relat ... index.html

Press release

Hurricane losses threatening Munich Re profit guidance for 2017
13 September 2017 | Group
After Hurricane Harvey caused significant damage in Texas and adjacent states at the end of August, there has now been another devastating storm in the form of Hurricane Irma. It caused extensive damage on islands in the Caribbean, and also in Florida. These two events are expected to result in high insured losses, which the market and Munich Re are unable to quantify at the moment. Despite good business performance in 2017 to date, the losses from Harvey and Irma could mean that Munich Re might miss its profit guidance of €2.0–2.4bn for the year – depending on how the business performs until the end of 2017. The figures for the third quarter of 2017 will probably show a loss. The business and risk strategy of Munich Re ensures that even after such severe natural catastrophes the Group has a sufficiently solid capital base to still be able to offer full reinsurance capacity to its clients.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 19:31:03

Trump is requesting a 4.9 billion dollar loan for PR.

Gov. Put recovery at 45-90 Billion.

The following link discusses the insurance industry between Harvey/Irma and Maria. If Munic RE was to take a big hit when they issued the above notice then they are going to get an even bigger hit due to Maria. It is starting to sound like the insurance companies may be hollering pretty soon.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... 88e51488a0

“It is clear that 2017 is a major catastrophe year,” said Simon Kilgour, an insurance partner at the law firm CMS.

And with respect to Lloyds
Daily Express says (Sept 29, can't make link work)
“The current-year losses are expected to wipe out industry earnings and impact capital for the first time since 2005.”
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 19:51:13

Newfie wrote:Trump is requesting a 4.9 billion dollar loan for PR.

Gov. Put recovery at 45-90 Billion.

Reality check here!
1. Could the Puerto Rico government spend more then 5 billion in the allotted time without wasting a large percentage of it?
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 20:38:04

What's the 'allotted time'?

They have to rebuild the entire infrastructure of the island...I think there won't be any problem spending the money.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 20:54:58

Name any government program of any size that won't waste a large portion of the money.

I think Doh has a point, you could probably just shovel it out the back end of a low flying C-130 and not do too badly. They are hurting badly.
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 10 Oct 2017, 21:04:53

Of course, corporations never waste any money ever!!! :-D :-D :-D
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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 11 Oct 2017, 07:04:20

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Re: Hurricane Maria

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 10:19:21

Geologic Evidence Suggests Ominous Prospects for Hurricanes on a Warming Earth

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... ihub#f0030

While strong seasonal hurricanes have devastated many of the Caribbean and Bahamian islands this year, geologic studies on several of these islands illustrate that much more extreme conditions existed in the past. A new analysis published in Marine Geology shows that the limestone islands of the Bahamas and Bermuda experienced climate changes that were even more extreme than historical events. In the interest of our future world, scientists must seek to understand the complexities of linked natural events and field observations that are revealed in the geologic record of past warmer climates.

In Bermuda and the Bahamas, the geology of the last interglacial (LIG; approximately 120,000 years ago) is exquisitely preserved in nearly pure carbonate sedimentary rocks. A record of superstorms and changing sea levels is exposed in subtidal, beach, storm, and dune deposits on multiple islands. Extensive studies by the authors over the past decades on these islands have documented stratigraphic, sedimentologic, and geomorphic evidence of major oceanic and climatic disruptions at the close of the last interglacial.

Dr. Paul J. Hearty, a retired Associate Professor at the University of North Carolina at Wilmington, and Dr. Blair. R. Tormey, a Coastal Research Scientist at Western Carolina University conducted an invited review of published findings. It demonstrates that during a global climate transition in the late last interglacial, also known as marine isotope substage 5e (MIS 5e), abrupt multi-meter sea-level changes occurred. Concurrently, coastlines of the Bahamas and Bermuda were impacted by massive storms generated in the North Atlantic Ocean, resulting in a unique trilogy of wave-transported deposits: megaboulders, chevron-shaped, storm-beach ridges, and runup deposits on high dune ridges.

While perhaps more mundane than the megaboulders (found only locally on Eleuthera), the sedimentological structures found within chevron ridge and runup deposits across islands throughout the Bahamas and Bermuda point to frequent and repeated inundation by powerful storm waves, in some locations leaving storm deposits tens of meters above sea level.
During the last interglacial, sea levels were about 3-9 meters higher than they are now. The geologic evidence indicates that the higher sea-levels were accompanied by intense "superstorms," which deposited giant wave-transported boulders at the top of cliffed coastlines, formed chevron-shaped, storm beach ridges in lowland areas, and left wave runup deposits on older dunes more than 30 meters above sea level. These events occurred at a time of only slightly warmer global climate and CO2 (about 275 ppm) was much lower than today.

The authors emphasize "the LIG record reveals that strong climate forcing is not required to yield major impacts on the ocean and ice caps." In our industrial world, rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 has surpassed 400 ppm, levels not achieved since the Pliocene era about 3 million years ago, while global temperature has increased nearly 1 °C since the 1870s. Today, ice sheets are melting, sea level is rising, oceans are warming, and weather events are becoming more extreme.

Drs. Hearty and Tormey conclude that with the greatly increased anthropogenic CO2 forcing at rates unmatched in nature, except perhaps during global extinction events, dramatic change is certain. They caution that, "Our global society is producing a climate system that is racing forward out of humanity's control into an uncertain future. If we seek to understand the non-anthropogenic events of the last interglaciation, some of the consequences of our unchecked forward speed may come more clearly into focus...a message from the past; a glimpse into the future."

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P.J. Hearty et al. Sea-level change and superstorms; geologic evidence from the last interglacial (MIS 5e) in the Bahamas and Bermuda offers ominous prospects for a warming Earth, Marine Geology (2017).
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