Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolationism

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 23 May 2015, 19:16:05

Pops wrote:aside from that, pretty well nothing that would justify your newly discovered confidence in BAU.


I attribute more importance to your "aside from that" than you do, as far as how far the can has now been kicked down the road. I do see a potential bubble pop in tech again. However, I see a lot more potential in unconventional fossil fuels than doomers once predicted. I've heard all the arguments about gas having a cliff-like depletion rate, etc... Nevertheless, I still think there's enough out there to keep the lights on for a the short to mid-term.

Also, I am not expecting geopolitical flash-points with Russia, China, NK, etc... to explode. I don't think things will be a cakewalk, by any means. But I do not see any sort of WWIII megadoom out of these. Just a lot of saber rattling and some low-level proxy warfare here and there.

I'm totally cool with people disagreeing on these points, because the nature of prediction is that you can only chalk up a win or loss in the rear view mirror. It's highly entertaining for two people to fight over a prediction. That's why gambling exists. Prediction runs to the core of the human condition, our need to crunch the numbers and try to find the optimal path, like a rat through a maze. It's why sports, reality-shows, or soap-operas are popular. But time and again I am reminded of the fallibility of predictions, that predictions that seem to be based on hard data, devoid of tinfoil, can turn out to be false.

So usually what I do when I evaluate the doomerverse (like Greer) is to try to figure out if the writer is clouded by a bias of some kind. And usually that bias is ideological. If someone hates some aspect of TPTB, then to predict that the walls will come down is in some way wish-fulfillment. The more a doomer seems to be drooling over the end of american hegemony(TM), etc..., the more I feel that their predictions are more about what they want to happen than what is most likely to happen.

For instance, take someone like Catton. I remember one of his interviews where he actually let humanity off the hook by saying he "understood" why we went the way we did. And then you have Lovelock who said the UK should prepare to accept climate refugees and build lots of nukes. There ARE doomers who aren't oozing with anti-establishment rhetoric, and these are the ones I tend to want to listen to the most. But they get crowded out by the ideologues and nutjobs.

However, on any given day when you come here, there are a bunch of news articles cherry-picked and reposted, with NO REGARD for source, including propaganda outlets like RussiaToday or tinfoil like InfoWars. If all anyone does is go seeking out doom, you'll find plenty of it, and it will give you a skewed perspective on how close to the edge of this or that cataclysm we are.

What I normally do (or what I used to do) is just hit up news.google.com. What I see bubble up through the MSM most often is environmental doom. And I'm talking about just regular news like National Geographic or Newsweek or whatever. Kinda like this one.

When doom starts bubbling through into the generic news feed on Google, then I treat this as serious sh*t. Paul B Farrel issuing his usual editorial screeds on Marketwatch is not. There's news and there's opinion. Two different things.

This is after many years of being a news junkie. I've figured out how to kind of sit back and evaluate the signal to noise, because there is so much damn noise out there and everyone on the internet is screaming for attention via any shock tactic imaginable.

So, if anyone wants to criticize my doom-o-meter, go right ahead, but I went through a period where I ate drank and breathed this stuff and I've got my own sixth sense about where we are and where we're going and I stand by it.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 23 May 2015, 21:07:42

ennui2 wrote:
So, if anyone wants to criticize my doom-o-meter, go right ahead, but I went through a period where I ate drank and breathed this stuff and I've got my own sixth sense about where we are and where we're going and I stand by it.


I appreciated your last two posts Ennui2. Thanks for sharing that. You seem to have arrived at the right balance between awareness and sobriety regarding the fate of humanity in reference to the topics we discuss here.

It is really up to each individual to sift through ones own bias and recognize the bias in others. Bias isn't necessarily bad by the way. Just another prism through which we look at events. I might be biased toward humans no longer being parasites and returning to a balanced place in the biosphere. Most do not look through this prism.

That affords me unique insights and also warps my perspective.

Who can caste the first stone at claiming pure objectivity?
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9568
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 23 May 2015, 23:15:50

In the end, physical realities trump what one thinks:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5569
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 24 May 2015, 02:14:43

thanks for the link ralfy. Yes it is amazing how precise and accurate the Limits to Growth analysis was. It is very apparent that we are now bumping into limits. Peak Oil, economic growth, food production, the ratio of cost to output of resources such as minerals and fossil fuels. So their is not doubt that the ability to provide for current population much less more people will soon become very difficult. Also becoming increasingly difficult is keeping up the consumer lifestyle in the rich countries. What should be apparent to any and everyone is that business as usual cannot continue for too much longer. Also, what is ominous is global warming and the general degradation of the Earth which can then last for a very long time.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 24 May 2015, 08:58:11

ralfy wrote:In the end, physical realities trump what one thinks:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse



We mentioned this before but it is worth repeating that in the 70's (I was in the uni studying biology and environmental science) when the Limits of Growth was published and debated, it was viewed by the public as an ideological document that had to compete with what eventually became Reagan's winning ideology in the 80's that it is "Morning in America" and we are entitled to have it all. This ideology then spread global.

The physical reality back then in the 80's with still abundant resources and stable climate allowed conspicuous consumption to be the winning ideology.

In the 21st century physical realities will continue to steer ideology.

The Big Squeeze.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9568
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 24 May 2015, 09:37:35

Quite correct Ibon, in fact President Carter albeit in a small way wanted to steer US away from FF, as you said people did not wish at that time to hear anything of the sort. Yes the environment allowed it but also the extravagant lifestyles were what enamored people. Again, the interplay of abundant resources with this penchant of humans to seek material gratification. This is what the scenario Business as usual in the Limits to Growth described. Collectively we ignored the sound science backing up this projection. Well we will not be able to ignore anymore. I like that the Big Squeeze. Oh and must be a splendid morning over there in the wilderness Ibon.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby Pops » Sun 24 May 2015, 11:06:18

Sorry I hurt your feelings enui.

But it sounds like you did feel better once you got off the pot. As I remember (and pretty well as you describe) you were adamant about wanting a "doomstead" but it just wasn't working out. You were making yourself pretty crazy, I'm glad you went in a different direction.

-
The proverbial "red pill" is an hallucinogen. I'm pretty sure all of us are "realists" only in the sense that we believe our imagined version of reality wholeheartedly.*

I've been ranting here from day one to make a plan and take action rather than wallow in doom. Not necessarily action in the survivalist sense, because in the end none of us ever survive, and not action in any one direction either because there is no one right direction. Creating a plan (a list of worries) and taking action— no matter how small—puts you in control just a little and reduces the anxiety that I'm pretty sure most everyone, that posts here earnestly, feels.

I hate the handwringing, the wallowing in Serial Doom, the rubbernecking of the diaster of the moment, and worst, the often misanthropic aspect of PO.com that not only says "we're dead" but "we deserve it." But most, I hate the doing nothing.


--
Just another aside in this already off topic post, sorry:

My new theory of online chat is "situational justification" — making up cool rationalizations for our otherwise mundane circumstances. In my case I'd always wanted a little farm, and after I become a PO junkie, it followed that my little farm was the perfect PO "Doomstead".

But, 10-15 years ago, before PO.com came online, I had kids with young families who weren't settled out in their own lives yet and I felt a large obligation to be their backstop. 9/11 and our government's reaction but especially the big RE bubble that I knew would sink my economic boat was why we left out for the farm. I understood limits and PO in particular but family economics was the proximate reason. But because my situation was easily justified as the Ultimate PO Doom Prep, it made me so much cooler online. LOL


But seriously, if something makes a person anxious, they should do something about it. If they can't do the big thing, or the ideal thing, they should do the next thing. To sit and stew, knowing but doing nothing, is much worse than being the oblivious frog slowly boiling. Not that it matters to anyone, but people who blather yet do nothing I soon ignore.

You mos, were honest about your inability to take the action you thought was best. But, you quit the wallowing and did the things you could; Transition, gardening, etc.
Kudos.


*Lucky (life is but a dream)
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 24 May 2015, 11:15:59

Yes, doing something is important. Something tangible, and something that also feeds you.

What I have difficulty with is folks for whom "doing" is blaming and yelling. Blaming "the others", the "them", TPTB, etc. I have a running argument with a friend who does nothing but bitch at his elected officials. He says "But bitching IS doing something." I disagree. Not sure if that puts me in the minority but I think so.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18458
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 24 May 2015, 14:37:15

Newfie wrote:What I have difficulty with is folks for whom "doing" is blaming and yelling.


The internet is an opiate in the sense that it provides a stage for an infinite about of whining. But once you go off in the corner, find some like minded people, and whine and whine and whine, it does start to feel like a waste of time. It's not like any of this actually changes people's ideologies or their voting habits.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 May 2015, 16:23:50

Yes, we'll, now that you mention it, here I sit whining about folks whining! 8O :-D

But mine is a FINE whine! :oops:

Joking aside, I can be damn hard to figure out what to do.

I take our case as a special and lucky situation. I think the average Joe or Jane will have a much harder time than I. I was blessed with much good luck.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18458
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 26 May 2015, 07:56:23

I just don't feel like whining. As of Thursday at 5PM Pacific time, I am retired. :mrgreen:

Only 24 hours of work left, less two hours at the Doctor today and two hours at the Dentist tomorrow. Then I wipe the hard drive on the work PC and return it.

I'm seriously considering "cutting the cord" and not even replacing the work PC. My wife has a laptop but seldom uses it anymore, doing everything routine on an iPad. I carry an Android tablet everywhere I go, that seems enough to keep up with this forum. I mean, a PC is so demanding of your time.

Not so easy is the decision whether to hardscape the yard. The next door neighbor just pulled his plants save for bushes and trees, and put in river stones. Doesn't look half bad, and he is saving a lot of water.

Whatever seems more likely to sell the place.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 17:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 26 May 2015, 12:21:00

December.

I've gone part time for the past few years to make the transition more manageable. I may stay on as a "casual" employee for a while, work remotely from the boat, until they forget about me.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18458
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean

Re: Human overshoot; global forces of cohesion and isolatio

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 26 May 2015, 16:19:55

KaiserJeep wrote: As of Thursday at 5PM Pacific time, I am retired.


Enjoy your retirement. I did that and ended up working harder than ever before in my life when we started this "semi'reitrement" project down here in Panama

Be forewarned.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9568
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Previous

Return to Geopolitics & Global Economics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests